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[captain stone]

I was just talking with @midwestpatsfan about Stone Forsythe

How's he doing? I missed his articles/rankings on nepatriotsdraft.com during the last two years...

 

[captain stone]

C POOL

So this is what need actually looks like After having nice depth with Andrews and Karras for some time now the position is barren.
Martin was emergency signing late in Dec. from DET after he hasn't played a snap in 4 years. And bounced around half of the league.
FA market doesn't offer much so bringing back Andrews would be quite important.
There should be great opportunity in Draft this year with top 4 prospects all Patriot Types as it gets.


NE ROSTER

68M.Martin (C/LG,27,2021,$0.9)

NE FREE AGENTS

60Andrews (29, #3.4)
66Ferentz (32)


FREE AGENTS top market: 12M-apy

Linsley, 30, GB [PFF:11]
J.Kelce, 34, PHI (5.5-J2) — new — 1y/9M
—>Andrews, 29, NE [PFF:3/18]
>Alex Mack, 35, ATL [1/6]
Reiter, 30, KC (betterPP ?run) [2y/9.5]
C+G Blythe, 29, LAR (better G;inconsist)
N.Martin, 28, HOU (soft;down2020) (6.3) — cut —
C+G Karras, 28, MIA [PFF:4] — MIA
Britt, 30, SEA — cut — HOU - 1y/3.2M>5M
Shatley, 30, JAX (1+y=2020)
C+G Pocic, 26, SEA (inj.h;+2020;+PP-run)
>Skura, 28, BAL (down yr>backup) — ex solid starter > NE backup C —
>BJ Finney, 30, CIN (3.3)— cut — expr. backup C — PIT
Garland, 33, SF (+b-up/SFA)
Kilgore, 34, KC (+b-up/SFA)
G+C Elflein, 27, NYJ (+run;G-NFL)
Feeney, 27, LAC
Larsen, 30, CAR (b-up)
C+G Ferentz, 32, NE

POSSIBLE CUTS / TRADE

[Richburg, 30, SF (8-J2) (hip.surg) — possible cut —


DRAFT

IOL Creed Humphrey #56 Oklahoma (6’4-312) - 2
IOL Landon ****erson #69 ALA (6’6-326-11“) - 2
OL *Josh Myers #71 Ohio St (6’5-312) - D2
IOL Quinn Meinerz #77 W-W (6’3-320) - 3-4
C Drake Jackson #52 Kentuckey (6’1-290-8.5“) - D3
C Michal Menet #62 Penn St (6’4-306) - D3
C Jimmy Morissey #67 Pitt (6’3-305) - D3
C Drew Dalman #51 Stanford (6’2-300) - D3
C *Trey Hill #55 Georgia (6’4-330) - D3

From that list, if Andrews isn't somehow re-signed, then I would seek Mongo JrJr, BJ Finney, Pat Elflein, Dan Feeney & old friend Ted (Bill never should've cut him in the first place) Larson...And from the draft, I would have no problem pulling the trigger on any of the top 4 names at #96...

Finney re-signs with Sh!tsdirt...never mind...

 

[long distance]

From that list, if Andrews isn't somehow re-signed, then I would seek Mongo JrJr, BJ Finney, Pat Elflein, Dan Feeney & old friend Ted (Bill never should've cut him in the first place) Larson...And from the draft, I would have no problem pulling the trigger on any of the top 4 names at #96...

All 4 will probably be gone by #96 but one could fall to #77 (the pick that was ridiculously taken away). So in this sense the ****ing NFL theft was significant. BB will not have a hole from #45 to #96 so he'll create a pick in between and that one could be used on C if Andrews goes elsewhere.
I still believe there's a good chance Andrews returns but they will have options. With the surrounding OL talent and somewhat limited passing offence Karras should do ok. Mack is still playing well if they want more solid option for a year..

btw Finney's gone back to PIT

 

[venecol]

From that list, if Andrews isn't somehow re-signed, then I would seek Mongo JrJr, BJ Finney, Pat Elflein, Dan Feeney & old friend Ted (Bill never should've cut him in the first place) Larson...And from the draft, I would have no problem pulling the trigger on any of the top 4 names at #96...

Your picks in order:

#14 Andrews (29) $6M
#17 Mongo Jr (28) - $4.2M
#21 Tyler Larsen (30) - ST
#35 Dan Feeney (27)
BJ Finney (29) - extended by PIT
#73 Pat Elflein (27) - Guard

There aren't a lot of good options but I guess bringing back Mongo at a slight downgrade is one, if you want to save $$. You still need a back-up (draft).

 

[long distance]

@ RB

Despite White and Burkhead becoming FAs this position is more or less set. Esp. since i wouldn't like to go with 5 RBs into the season + FB, thats just too much roster for plug&play position. Since Bolden is reportedly returning and is core ST id be fine going with just Michel, Harris, JJ Taylor, Bolden. Bolden can come in rotation as well behind dominant OL.

They can let White go, with new QB direction his fit might be better elsewhere. They can bring back Rex if he doesn't find better gig, but id keep the end roster number at 4+FB. They can draft some competition for JJ, some nice options should be available later in the Draft or even UDFA.

I would prefer to go into the season with at least 5 possibly 6 WRs for a change PR incl. - as i will argue in the next WR post - its about the numbers game at WR position more than about the #1 receiver..

 

[Deus Irae]

@ RB

Despite White and Burkhead becoming FAs this position is more or less set. Esp. since i wouldn't like to go with 5 RBs into the season + FB, thats just too much roster for plug&play position. Since Bolden is reportedly returning and is core ST id be fine going with just Michel, Harris, JJ Taylor, Bolden. Bolden can come in rotation as well behind dominant OL.

They can let White go, with new QB direction his fit might be better elsewhere. They can bring back Rex if he doesn't find better gig, but id keep the end roster number at 4+FB. They can draft some competition for JJ, some nice options should be available later in the Draft or even UDFA.

I would prefer to go into the season with at least 5 possibly 6 WRs for a change PR incl. - as i will argue in the next WR post - its about the numbers game at WR position more than about the #1 receiver..

Given the injury history of Harris and Michel, your position seems to be just a little bit totally insane. Just a teeny bit batshit crazy.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

batshit crazy.

Is this tribute to sofie Tucker?

 

[long distance]

@OT 2020

 

[long distance]

WR MATH

After this yr SB . analysts came up with some data that went against popular believe - and was at the same time not at all surprising - about influence top WRs have on the game in playoffs. The result by EPA metrics (Expected Points Added) was that WR1 influences the game less (almost no influence) than WR2 and that 3rd and 4th receiving options are the difference makers.

This doesn't mean WR1 is not important - it actually influences the game a lot - but many times in big games indirectly. This goes in hand w old BB mantra that you take the strength of opponent away and exploit the weakness. Or going form the opposite direction: the strongest your weakness is the more likely you will have positive outcome.

The problem of KC was not only OL but also the fact that receiving options behind Hill and Kelce did not show up. Watkins, Hardman and Pringle combined 20 yds on 9 targets (Watkins coming back from inj). This was the story throughout their playoffs that was much bumpier ride than expected - they only had two legitimate targets in passing game.

In the last patriots SB run (2014-2018) they had Jules & Gronk as top 2 targets but the 3-4 additional weapons they had to accompany them proved crucial. In the last SB they did not have that so they had to go with robust running game plan and top defence.

If we look at compositions of receiving weapons it was very similar on most part:
no WR1/X, top WR2 (slot/Jules), top TE (Gronk/Bennett), top rec RB (Vereen/White), top WR3 (Amendola/Cooks), solid WR4 (LaFell/Hogan/Mitchell)

These compositions were among most versatile, deepest and cheapest in the league.

Seeing a load of Cap Space now everyone is salivating for top WR1 that costs c. 20M apy - almost as much as the whole aforementioned compositions. It is no surprise that the 5 teams that have WRs on 20M+ apy contracts were not the most successful in NFL - ARI, ATL, LAC, DAL, NO - and even occasional relative success came/or will come with a receit (cap problems).

Composition of the groups and quality depth as deep as possible are the winning ticket that is also sustainable.

The math re. this offseason options continues..

 

[Deus Irae]

WR MATH

After this yr SB . analysts came up with some data that went against popular believe - and was at the same time not at all surprising - about influence top WRs have on the game in playoffs. The result by EPA metrics (Expected Points Added) was that WR1 influences the game less (almost no influence) than WR2 and that 3rd and 4th receiving options are the difference makers.

This doesn't mean WR1 is not important - it actually influences the game a lot - but many times in big games indirectly. This goes in hand w old BB mantra that you take the strength of opponent away and exploit the weakness. Or going form the opposite direction: the strongest your weakness is the more likely you will have positive outcome.

The problem of KC was not only OL but also the fact that receiving options behind Hill and Kelce did not show up. Watkins, Hardman and Pringle combined 20 yds on 9 targets (Watkins coming back from inj). This was the story throughout their playoffs that was much bumpier ride than expected - they only had two legitimate targets in passing game.

In the last patriots SB run (2014-2018) they had Jules & Gronk as top 2 targets but the 3-4 additional weapons they had to accompany them proved crucial. In the last SB they did not have that so they had to go with robust running game plan and top defence.

If we look at compositions of receiving weapons it was very similar on most part:
no WR1/X, top WR2 (slot/Jules), top TE (Gronk/Bennett), top rec RB (Vereen/White), top WR3 (Amendola/Cooks), solid WR4 (LaFell/Hogan/Mitchell)

These compositions were among most versatile, deepest and cheapest in the league.

Seeing a load of Cap Space now everyone is salivating for top WR1 that costs c. 20M apy - almost as much as the whole aforementioned compositions. It is no surprise that the 5 teams that have WRs on 20M+ apy contracts were not the most successful in NFL - ARI, ATL, LAC, DAL, NO - and even occasional relative success came/or will come with a receit (cap problems).

Composition of the groups and quality depth as deep as possible are the winning ticket that is also sustainable.

The math re. this offseason options continues..

Anyone who watches a Chiefs game, and can't figure out that the most influential, non-QB on the field, no matter what other team is on the field, is Tyreek Hill has no business analyzing football.

 

[long distance]

WR MATH

After this yr SB . analysts came up with some data that went against popular believe - and was at the same time not at all surprising - about influence top WRs have on the game in playoffs. The result by EPA metrics (Expected Points Added) was that WR1 influences the game less (almost no influence) than WR2 and that 3rd and 4th receiving options are the difference makers.

This doesn't mean WR1 is not important - it actually influences the game a lot - but many times in big games indirectly. This goes in hand w old BB mantra that you take the strength of opponent away and exploit the weakness. Or going form the opposite direction: the strongest your weakness is the more likely you will have positive outcome.

The problem of KC was not only OL but also the fact that receiving options behind Hill and Kelce did not show up. Watkins, Hardman and Pringle combined 20 yds on 9 targets (Watkins coming back from inj). This was the story throughout their playoffs that was much bumpier ride than expected - they only had two legitimate targets in passing game.

In the last patriots SB run (2014-2018) they had Jules & Gronk as top 2 targets but the 3-4 additional weapons they had to accompany them proved crucial. In the last SB they did not have that so they had to go with robust running game plan and top defence.

If we look at compositions of receiving weapons it was very similar on most part:
no WR1/X, top WR2 (slot/Jules), top TE (Gronk/Bennett), top rec RB (Vereen/White), top WR3 (Amendola/Cooks), solid WR4 (LaFell/Hogan/Mitchell)

These compositions were among most versatile, deepest and cheapest in the league.

Seeing a load of Cap Space now everyone is salivating for top WR1 that costs c. 20M apy - almost as much as the whole aforementioned compositions. It is no surprise that the 5 teams that have WRs on 20M+ apy contracts were not the most successful in NFL - ARI, ATL, LAC, DAL, NO - and even occasional relative success came/or will come with a receit (cap problems).

Composition of the groups and quality depth as deep as possible are the winning ticket that is also sustainable.

The math re. this offseason options continues..

WR MATH CONTINUES

This doesn't mean that you don't try to get legitimate WR1/X - just not by forcing it or jumping to the top of the market. It also doesn't mean that BB doesn't care about having legit X receiver. It just have to be the sensible opportunity. When he waited for the opportunity (Moss & lets also incl. Gronk) he was most successful.

When going after WR1 it was almost always in trades. Last year Pats were reportedly the finalists for Diggs - and while contract was very attractive (c.13M apy) - compensation was obviously over the top. A year earlier Pats were reportedly the finalists for top WR2/slot on the market - Humphries who went for 4y/36M to TEN (reportedly Pats were willing to up this offer). So BB is obviously willing to go after top receivers but responsibly - for adequate value.

BB obviously prefers to combine Draft compensation & good value contract to spending top $ when going after top WRs. (trade also doesnt count for comp pick cancellation)
On the other hand he is willing to pay good $ in FA for WR2/slot.
This is not a rule of course - ultimately its about opportunities - but its a pattern to maybe learn from going in this FA.

Lets see what are the options this offseason for this principle: Trade for WR1, pay in FA for WR2..

 

[long distance]

With Edelman's future up in the air, Harry's future in NE as well Pats are in the hunt for both WR1 & WR2. Or WR2a & WR2b.

Looking at trade options it is not the best year - at least not at the start of FA when teams could use cap relief the most. I had my eye on Thomas from NO but they obviously went for restructure since pre June 1st trade would not bring them any additional cap space.

Julio Jones is the same situation - trade would make sense only after June 1. Devonte Adams is in his contract year but i guess GB must find a way to keep him as the only viable receiver. OBJ is a possibility (14M apy over 3 yrs remaining in his contract - no guarantees) but he just misses too many games. Thielen has some 13M apy remaining over 4 years but you can probably get this value in FA this year. Better value could be Shepard but again 8Mapy you can get similar or even better player wo compensation in this FA.

So i guess it will have to be FA and draft. WR draft is very deep and full of PTP slot machines but considering Pats success at drafting receivers in the last decade lets put our hopes in FA that is pretty deep as well - here listed in groups by projected $ apy:

WR1
Golladay - 21M
Fuller - 17M

WR1b
Juju - 16M
C.Davis - 15M
TY Hilton - 10M
AJ Green - 4-10M

WR2
Samuel - 8M
M.Jones - 8M
Perriman - 8M
Agholor - 8M

WR3
Snead - 6-7M
Bourne - 6M
Cole - 5M
Reynolds - 4-5M
Higgins - 3-6M
J.Brown - 3-5M

So for one Golladay you can get TY + Samuel + Higgins.. Or Samuel + TE1 (f.e. Smith) + Cole..

 

[DaBruinz]

Given the injury history of Harris and Michel, your position seems to be just a little bit totally insane. Just a teeny bit batshit crazy.

That's rich coming from the most arrogant and insane person on this board..


@long distance - I think you're correct. I don't foresee the Pats using any major draft capital or free agency capital at RB

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I agree that we have other needs than running back for the draft and backs are probably easier to find in the UDFA pool than some other offensive positions.

If we have the chance to sign roundtree of Missouri as an udfa, we should. He could add value as a big short yardage back, part time lead blocker and on special teams.

However if we do draft a running back, gaintwell of Memphis is a guy that could work well in our offense.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Too soon?

 

[long distance]

I agree that we have other needs than running back for the draft and backs are probably easier to find in the UDFA pool than some other offensive positions.

If we have the chance to sign roundtree of Missouri as an udfa, we should. He could add value as a big short yardage back, part time lead blocker and on special teams.

However if we do draft a running back, gaintwell of Memphis is a guy that could work well in our offense.

They met with Felton and Jefferson already so they might be adding a receiving back in place of White possibly leaving in FA.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Future Pats?


Turner's upside is his ability to kick inside. Check out is eyes though, following ball, gap to gap. Could be setting up his man, either way, heady play upfront.




Took snaps inside at the Senior Bowl and has throughout his career. Like the way he sounds and carries himself. Still looks a little on the skinny side but obviously has the frame to add.

I think Stuard would be a ST ace for the Pats and may evolve into an everydown player. I have him slotted for pick 241.

 

[long distance]

Too soon?

Im making some moves today

 

[long distance]

The whole ABC of cap management well delivered. Recommend a save.




one nugget that will come in play this year even more (he took it on poor Mingo):

VETERAN MINIMUM SALARY BENEFIT​

One final thing you’ll see a lot of toward the end of free agency is the veteran minimum salary benefit. The NFLPA found a way to make older players more attractive to teams by allowing them to earn more money but carry a cap hit similar to younger players.

Because Mingo already had seven credited seasons coming into 2020, the minimum salary he could earn was $1,050,000. Teams are always looking to save money, so this may have made it harder for him to find a roster spot. The solution: If a player with four-plus credited seasons signs a contract that qualifies for the veteran minimum salary benefit, their cap charge for their base salary will reflect that of a player with only two credited seasons. Here’s Mingo’s contract from 2020:

Year	Age	Base Salary	Prorated Bonus	Gtd. Salary	Cap #
2020	30	$1.05M	$137.5K	$750K	$887.5K

As you can see, his base salary is larger than his total cap hit. That’s because his cap hit is calculated as: $750,000 base salary + $137,500 bonus = $887,500. He gets to earn the $1.05 million salary from a cash perspective, but the team gets cap relief — a win for both parties.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Im making some moves today

Colon Blow is great stuff indeed but how exactly does that improve the Pats roster?