Part 2
How the Bucs O works – We mostly know this so I'll keep it short.
They live and die by chunk plays. They like to be balanced with the run, but they don't have to be to be effective. The O Line has been good and will need to be again. Down and distance are fairly meaningless to them. Why pick up 5 on 3rd and 4 when you can go for 20? This is both their weakness and their strength as an offense. Their ability to run has been hit or miss all season. No where in these playoffs have they gotten over the all important 5 YPC threshold. KC has given up just about 5 YPC, but not by much. A lot was given up to Allen, but their run game besides him was shut down. It's unlikely TB will have the horses this match up to point them over that mark and make their run game hurt. They don't do much play action or motions, but when they do they are often used to great effect. Hopefully they do more. The offense is built around Evans/Godwin and the mismatches they give. Particularly Evans who you don't want to cover 1v1. Add in Brate, Gronk, Brown, Miller and co, and you have a chance for a guy to be open on every play. The passing game has the diversity and personel to attack a D anyway they want, the question is will they use it or stick to their bread and butter of deep chunks down the field?
How the Bucs D works – Ditto
It starts with the DL which is among the best. They stop the run cold generally. While GB and NO were able to get just a hair over 4 YPC it didn't feel like it much of the game. Basically besides giving up a few 10+ yard run to the outside those games, they made the offense pay whenever they ran. Their pass rush with Vea back is looking the best it has all season. Suh is the forgotten man on the interior, but he is also doing his job at a high level. Their Line Backers are great at everything but coverage, not that they are bad at it. They like to shoot gaps and play aggressive, and can anticipate. Often they don't miss in open space. The defensive backs have been solid during this run. Man or Zone they have been very good overall. The question is can they deal with the speed of guys like Hill or Hardman?
How to beat them?
KC has everything need do to accomplish this, though it won't be easy. They need a QB who can extend plays and evade the rush. They also need receivers who can win with speed and size. They have both. Try to force the Bucs to cover Hill with 2 and leave a large gap underneath they need to make a tough 1v1 tackle in. After that, see if you can force them to single up on Hill for a deep shot. Kelce in space in the middle with one of these line backers is a match they need to try to get early and often. Hardman is the wild card. Long developing runs to the side are good. Ignore the teeth of the D. Pass to HEC in the flat and see what he can do. Get the ball in the hands of your fastest players and give your OL enough help to make it possible.
On Defense they need to just keep doing what they've done all season, play back and force the Bucs to be patient. If they prove they can be then mix it up a little, but don't give up those deep 1v1 plays down the field no matter what, no matter the down or distance. Leave the Running Backs open and dare them to hit those and see if you can get some drops to put them in bad down and distances. Go after Brady like there is no tomorrow. Hide your coverages until the last second and don't be afraid of testing the Tampa backs with a corner or safety blitz.
Match up thoughts. What match ups will be the most important?
First, do you believe the offensive line for Mahomes matters as long as he has Kelce, Hill and co? This offensive line will win their fair amount of snaps, but I don't see them holding up well over the course of the game. Fisher is the straw that breaks the camels back, and they were beat by less talented DLs with him in. So either this over matched group has the combined game of their careers, the Bucs come out flat, or this is a massive advantage for the Bucs. I see the 3rd option as likely. And as good as Mahomes is under pressure and on the run, it will come into play.
I can't help but think of that 3 game span of Miami, NO and ATL when he was under a lot of pressure. He played some of his worse football of the season, as you would expect. He still managed to hit over 30 points twice, but at the cost of sacks, turnovers, missed throws and other errors that went unpunished. And in both games they went over 30 they had help. One with a Hardman TD return and safety, the other with nearly 100 yards in penalties and a defensive performance that involved 9 drives of 5 plays or less along with a turnover to keep field position from shifting on them. Frankly the offense in both games wasn't pretty and should have been held to less. But that Saints showed that even with Mahomes seriously under pressure they can get 30 on you.
If the Bucs can put the same amount of pressure on the Chiefs they'll certainly struggle, though 30 points may be possible even in that case, cause they are just that explosive. But I think at the least the Bucs will make them work for it, and probably be able to force a turnover or two. As well as make it a higher possession game.
Secondly, just as important. Did the Bucs learn their lesson defensively? They started playing a lot of Tampa high 2 after that awful first quarter and it started to limit KC, but they were also coasting a little at the time. Will they try do single high again or man Hill? Personally, this is an easy one to answer, and the answer with 99% certainty is yes they learned their lesson. It won't stop KC, but it will make them work for it. Easy.
The Third and most up in the air question is one no one knows. Will the Bucs change their offensive style to take what KC gives them? I don't expect them to not pass the ball deep, but KC sits on those deep routes with multiple defenders just hoping for you to take a shot. Will the Bucs offense take the underneath when it's open? Can they depend on Fournette and Jones to make short catches and gain yards? When they do pass deep can their OL hold up against the all out pass rush of KC, particularly with Jones potentially matched up with a back up guard? Will they be able to pick up those sneaky blitz packages? This one no one knows. Brady has looked very mortal when facing pressure this season in particular. Personally I hope given 2 weeks they will look much like after their first bye. With motions, play action and attacking underneath.
Final thoughts.
I firmly believe as good as Reid is out of the bye that these 2 weeks favor the Bucs. KC will come out ready with 10-15 new plays that will no doubt mostly worked. But they will be the same team they were all season, they only play with one style. The Bucs on the other hand can do some sole searching and scouting of themselves and their opponent. I think that has the potential to be more valuable than some well designed plays. If the Bucs are healthy, ready to go and have well thought out game plan they execute on they have a good chance. As good as KC is, the Bucs ceiling is slightly higher. The nightmare match up of the Bucs DL vs the Chiefs OL looms large. As does the familiarity of home field.
While I love going over X's and O's I never do it at the expense of the human factor and i'm always mindful of the intangibles. KC just played the best game of their season, and it wasn't even close. It all worked vs the Bills. I don't see them turning in a similar performance again. This is a team that hasn't been able to put it together for 60 minutes most of the year. They also have shown themselves to be human offensively when the pass rush gets home. On Defense they are underrated and overrated. They are underrated in how effectively they can smother a team as the front runner, but overrated when they need to play a tight game against a capable offense. They can't keep a good offense down all game. and can't change it up when they are not ahead. When a team isn't desperate to force something they aren't as effective, particularly against a good offense.
Home field will matter. The Bucs play with a chip on their shoulder and since the bye have learned from their pass mistakes. They figured out how to better attack the Saints and they will do so again for KC. It won't look as dominant as the Saints game, but they'll figure some things out against a team that really doesn't change. Brady after that not so good 2nd half against GB is likely to be focused and play cleanly now. Mahomes has had 16 or so interceptions dropped and has not had a turnover in these playoffs. The law of averages says it has to come home to roost at some point. Against a much better pass rush than he's seen in over a month with a weakened Oline is a time that makes sense.
Prediction: TB 34 KC 31
This will be a classic. The TB DL vs the KC DL will be a problem all game. Mahomes will make some fantastic plays, but some sacks and turnovers will happen. The Bucs offense will jump on those. The Bucs will no doubt try to pound their head against the wall at times (running for 2 yards on first down and throwing down field when the underneath is open) but will change enough on offense so they can score effectively. For the most part Brady and the pass catchers have a clean game and attack the underneath enough to open up some good deep shots. I expect Evans to get some 1v1s the Bucs cash in on. They'll play with help on Hill all game they don't let Kelce run free after his fake blocking attempts... much. The end around runs of KC will hurt, but the Bucs will eventually figure it out and the rest of the KC run game will be limited.
KC will force their way into the game constantly even when down. It will be close in the 4th, until one forced throw off balance with pressure by Mahomes is finally paid for. With a BIG interception return, for a go ahead score on a short field that puts the Bucs ahead for good. They'll then desperately hold on to run down the clock as Mahomes makes magic happen to make it a 1 score game, probably an onside kick failing with under 4 minutes left as well. The Bucs will then run the clock out with a first down or two after. Probably even going for it on 4th down, scared to death to punt it back to Mahomes, as they should be.
