Will we likely have the divisions #4 QB in 2020?

[Ring 6]

I get what you're saying...but...I'm still lost as to how you got there...?


I was just saying - and I feel like this is universally known here - they normally don't pay free agents top dollar and I don't think they're going to start now. Not considering they wouldn't pay Brady and the fact they've always made it a philosophy to not devote a high-percentage of cap space to that position.

This is a point we disagree on. It’s not as simple as “they don’t pay free agents” because within the confines of the roster building they do, it just doesn’t look like other teams for many reasons.
First we have seen an unprecedented run where the cap wouldn’t allow him to afford his own free agents. As the best team in the league when contracts expire those players command large increases. It’s been a maintaining situation for 20 years out of necessity. There just was the money (acting sensibly) to compete for top dollar free agents. How many seasons was there much money left after retaining there own? Almost every year signing top dollar free agents would have caused them to loose many players.
Brady, contrary to popular belief was paid very well, in the top of QB pay while he was here. So the money devoted to the QB position has always been a very high percentage. Hell in bbs first year Bledsoe became the highest paid player in the league. Brady was always in the top few. I also disagree that belichick wouldn’t pay Brady so he left. Brady left without listening. And he was 43. Not paying a 43 year old isn’t the same as not believing the position should get paid.

I was just saying right now, they don't have anyone that is starting caliber at this point unless Stidham turns a corner, and I feel like Belichick believes that isn't the case based on how this year played out.

Agree

If they're not going to overpay for a top-tier guy (whoever that might be), they could be among the bottom QB wise within the division depending on how things go

This is where we disagree. I see no reason he won’t pay what it takes. QBs is the most important position. Belichick clearly knows that. Not paying for a QBs would be saying I know it’s the most important position but I don’t care. Negligent. That’s not the bb I’ve seen.

...sort of like how they finished this season if the guy they want in the draft isn't there again and if they take a shot at a lower-tiered free agent QB who struggles in his first season here.

there was no choice this year due to a combination of no viable QB being available and no cap room to pay him if he were.

And here, I was just saying again that they don't pay top dollar for someone unless they're 100% confident on the return.

Think about that statement. If the man running the show knows QB is the most important position on the field, QB play is entirely uncertain and he refuses to sign one without 100% certainly, he sucks at making football decisions.
Where I would agree is that there are QBs out there who are vastly overrated and near the top of the pay grade and no he won’t sign one of those just for the sake of adding a name. He will identify the QBs he feels he can win with (and it may conflict with common perception. For example he may feel someone like Mariotta (hypothetically though I doubt he’s a good example) gives him a better chance to win than someone like Stafford because he can execute what we want done better despite the fact that Stafford has a bunch of gaudy hollow stats that make people believe he is a good QB).

I think Jimmy might be someone they'd take a risk on there, but outside of that, I think they'd try and find a lower-tiered player or a draft pick.

I don’t think Jimmy G get extra points for having been here, but it’s possible he evaluates him highly. I think there are a group of QBs that fit that mold where his evaluation is they are more than they have shown the general public just as there are a group people think are good QBs that he wouldn’t want.

Again, like the post above, how that works out would be the question and it's not negligent on Belichick, it just comes down to who is available and how high they're willing to go.

again we diverge. With a #15 pick to use or trade up with 60 mill in cap space and the clear understanding that the franchise isn’t returning to glory without an effective QB and it is both the biggest weakness and the most important piece for this team, if we end up with crappy QB play in 2021 it absolutely is negligence. It’s knowing exactly what the priority is, having the resources to fix it and abjectly failing. The only exception would be poor and play because of rookie growing pains or of course a QBs injury.

I feel like you're trying to defend a point where there isn't a hill.

And I feel like you are challenging my opinion as if I have no right to have one. I am not defending anything. I have an opinion and apparently you aren’t understanding what it is do when you reply I restate it to clarify.

We're just having a conversation about what they may/may not do and discussing hypotheticals. I'm not calling Belichick negligent at all.

see that what I mean. You’ve said that numerous times and I have clarified numerous times

I am not trying to tell you I know what you think better than you do. I accept that you don’t consider him negligent.
But what I am saying is if your read of his outlook on this is correct I would conclude he is negligent and has become incompetent.

Honestly? Based on what we heard this season, I think he gambled on Brady staying and wasn't really prepared for that possibility and it left him scrambling at the end when he obviously didn't feel comfortable in Stidham and he took a risk on Cam. Through the first couple of weeks, it seemed like a great move. It just didn't work out.

agree although I knew even in the first few weeks it wasn’t working.

I definitely believe he'll address it this offseason. I just have questions about how and who - which I think more or less describes the feelings of others in here as well.

So my viewpoint is that he recognizes it as the top priority by a large margin and he has more resources than he has ever had. So he will not rest without fixing the QBs position no matter what it costs.
But it may cost him less than expected because I am positive that his evaluation of available QBs and the markets evaluation are not going to be the same (again for example I am sure he would prefer say Jimmy G to a guy like Stafford even though Stafford would probably command more on the open market).
Perhaps we just need to agree to disagree because I don’t think I can explain my point of view in much greater detail.

 

[captain stone]

Dak Prescott turned down 40m per year from the Cowboys. The chances of BB topping that are slim to none. Best way to build is through the draft. Maybe the Pats sign a veteran journeyman stop gap QB but that's not going to get them to better than the 7-9 to 9-7 range. We need a new franchise signal caller.

Did Dak turn down the $40M after his injury?

 

[Pats2000]

Dak Prescott turned down 40m per year from the Cowboys. The chances of BB topping that are slim to none. Best way to build is through the draft. Maybe the Pats sign a veteran journeyman stop gap QB but that's not going to get them to better than the 7-9 to 9-7 range. We need a new franchise signal caller.

Maybe he wanted to play for a team with a coaching staff that could win

 

[Ian]

And I feel like you are challenging my opinion as if I have no right to have one. I am not defending anything. I have an opinion and apparently you aren’t understanding what it is do when you reply I restate it to clarify.

Not sure where you're getting that from. What I meant was that I'm just sort of talking out loud and you went from 0-100 while making it seem like I'm calling Belichick negligent. I never said he didn't value the QB position and my question is I can't see him going against their philosophy in terms of players they'll give a lot of money to.

To your point, they paid Brady because he was worth it and Belichick knew he was worth it, as did Kraft. But I don't think he'll pay a free agent QB the same or more. I think Jimmy might be the only exception and that's only because there's some institutional knowledge and there's no secret he liked him as a player. Otherwise, I think he'd rather take a lower-tiered guy and develop his own. He just needs to find one.

Regarding paying players. Show me an example of a free agent player - other than Gilmore, which we've already discussed - where they've paid close to market value when it wasn't one of their own players during his tenure...? I can't think of one. If he's seen day in and day out that the player has earned it, he's done it. Otherwise, it hasn't happened. That's really all I was saying.

And I was essentially saying you were seemingly looking for an argument where there isn't one. Other than you thinking I was insinuating Belichick being negligent, that's about the only disagreement. Otherwise, we're just talking

 

[Rob0729]

I gotta say I fell for this one for a fraction a second (maybe a bit longer). If the playoffs weren't still going, I most likely would have believed it for a full second since trades cannot be actually done until the new football year but some are agreed to in between the Super Bowl and the first day of the new year but never before that.

 

[Ring 6]

Not sure where you're getting that from. What I meant was that I'm just sort of talking out loud and you went from 0-100 while making it seem like I'm calling Belichick negligent. I never said he didn't value the QB position and my question is I can't see him going against their philosophy in terms of players they'll give a lot of money to.

To your point, they paid Brady because he was worth it and Belichick knew he was worth it, as did Kraft. But I don't think he'll pay a free agent QB the same or more. I think Jimmy might be the only exception and that's only because there's some institutional knowledge and there's no secret he liked him as a player. Otherwise, I think he'd rather take a lower-tiered guy and develop his own. He just needs to find one.

Regarding paying players. Show me an example of a free agent player - other than Gilmore, which we've already discussed - where they've paid close to market value when it wasn't one of their own players during his tenure...? I can't think of one. If he's seen day in and day out that the player has earned it, he's done it. Otherwise, it hasn't happened. That's really all I was saying.

And I was essentially saying you were seemingly looking for an argument where there isn't one. Other than you thinking I was insinuating Belichick being negligent, that's about the only disagreement. Otherwise, we're just talking

Again I will explain. I did not say you called belichick negligent. I said that your expectation of what he will do would be considered negligent by ME. If you are right and he doesnt value adding an effective QB regardless of cost, he should be replaced. Hopefullly we can move past that piece now.

He pays market value for all of the free agents he signs there just haven’t been a lot of them that are the top of the market. But it is very understandable why. First he is using the cap paying his own retained players top dollar. Players such as Brady, moss, mankins, Hightower, wilfork, gronk, McCourty even gostkowski, just to name a few were paid at or near the top of their position and other than RB that includes every position group.
Colvin, and Thomas were top of the market FAs, Revis was top of the market in a trade.
Yes there aren’t a ton of examples but that is because it has been extremely rare that belichick has had cap space to work with.
Having 60 mill of cap room makes this year different than any other. Having no qb makes this year different than any other.
I don’t understand how not spending cap space he didn’t have on players that weren’t vital needs translate to how he will fill the biggest need he has ever had with the most money he has ever had.

And that’s exactly where we are. This is the biggest need belichick has ever had to fill. This is the most important roster spot he has ever had to fill. And thud us the biggest budget he has ever had to do it with.

If he doesn’t fix the QB spot at all cost when the need is the highest and the budget is the fattest then he just doesn’t understand how to build a winning team in the NFL. Since he clearly has proven he does understand I can’t fathom that happening.

Attacking it from a different angle, what possible justification could you give that would make not paying whatever it takes to secure an effective QB anything nut stupid and yes, negligent? If he doesnt even try in the year he has the most resources he has ever had, he should absolutely be fired, because he will never address the qb position and a HC/GM who won’t value the QB position will never win.

Edit: another question is he won’t spend the money to fix the QBs position what is he going to spend 60,000,000 on?

 

[VJCPatriot]

Attacking it from a different angle, what possible justification could you give that would make not paying whatever it takes to secure an effective QB anything nut stupid and yes, negligent? If he doesnt even try in the year he has the most resources he has ever had, he should absolutely be fired, because he will never address the qb position and a HC/GM who won’t value the QB position will never win.

Edit: another question is he won’t spend the money to fix the QBs position what is he going to spend 60,000,000 on?

I hope that you are right. But New England rarely makes a free agent "splash". The biggest free agent splash I can remember is Gilmore. And in hindsight he was worth every single penny that was spent, reaching all-pro levels with the Patriots.

I'm gonna guess that if the 49ers cut Garappolo, BB will go in to get him as a free agent. But I don't see BB paying Prescott the money he wants since it sounds like he was seeking a contract from the Cowboys closer to Patrick Mahomes, and he's nowhere near as good and coming off a serious injury to boot!

 

[Ring 6]

I hope that you are right. But New England rarely makes a free agent "splash". The biggest free agent splash I can remember is Gilmore. And in hindsight he was worth every single penny that was spent, reaching all-pro levels with the Patriots.

I'm gonna guess that if the 49ers cut Garappolo, BB will go in to get him as a free agent. But I don't see BB paying Prescott the money he wants since it sounds like he was seeking a contract from the Cowboys closer to Patrick Mahomes, and he's nowhere near as good and coming off a serious injury to boot!

I think if you look back there have been rare instances where the Patriots were in cap shape to make a “splash” and they made many “free agent signings” by retaining their own at top dollar. You can’t do both unless you have exhorbitant cap space which they have never, ever had.

As I said why would years where they don’t have money or glaring need be indicative of how they will approach the most glaring need they have ever had by far while having the most money to spend by far.

I don’t think it’s a case of who wants what money and is he as good as someone else who got that.
I think it’s a case of a glaring hole that had to be filled at all cost. Of course value matters, it always does. But if there is ever a time and a reason to be a slave to the market this is the time and reason.
If Belichick uses the draft and cap space to bring in 2 cheap backup QBs to compete and build a team around them with the rest of the money, he isn’t going to win. He knows that. Spending what it takes to be confident in the QB spot at the expense of spending money elsewhere is a much better plan.
Now we have to separate quality qb from name value and what other teams will pay for name value.
Let’s say Stafford is cut. He could demand top dollar but I don’t think he is worth backup money. He is severely overrated and no team will even win with him unless they win in spite of him. Darnold is the same thing.
Now I don’t love Prescott but I will pay him 30 mil before I pay Darnold or Stafford 10. Because you can win with Prescott. He needs help but he can be a winner. 20 million extra spent on other players wouldn’t let you win with Darnold or Stafford.
There are probably other QBs that are not as generally highly regarded as those guys but are more highly regarded by BB.
In my opinion belichick is going to get the best qb he can regardless of price and it’s the top, first and 100% must solve need. Whether the guy he considers best is the sane guy who other teams want to pay the most is another question.

Every single thing I have seen belichick do here tells me he will fix qb regardless of the cost (the downside would be the best fix is a draft choice who won’t be ready to win yet in 21) and will not accept another season like he just had. Honestly if he doesn’t fix it I would be convinced his mental faculties are failing.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Trey Lance QB is the move if we don’t trade the farm for Zach Wilson if not for him we trade up or let Trey Lance fall to us.

 

[Pats2000]

I hope that you are right. But New England rarely makes a free agent "splash". The biggest free agent splash I can remember is Gilmore. And in hindsight he was worth every single penny that was spent, reaching all-pro levels with the Patriots.

I'm gonna guess that if the 49ers cut Garappolo, BB will go in to get him as a free agent. But I don't see BB paying Prescott the money he wants since it sounds like he was seeking a contract from the Cowboys closer to Patrick Mahomes, and he's nowhere near as good and coming off a serious injury to boot!

Don't forget Adaleus Thomas

 

[amfootball]

I think if you look back there have been rare instances where the Patriots were in cap shape to make a “splash” and they made many “free agent signings” by retaining their own at top dollar. You can’t do both unless you have exhorbitant cap space which they have never, ever had.

As I said why would years where they don’t have money or glaring need be indicative of how they will approach the most glaring need they have ever had by far while having the most money to spend by far.

I don’t think it’s a case of who wants what money and is he as good as someone else who got that.
I think it’s a case of a glaring hole that had to be filled at all cost. Of course value matters, it always does. But if there is ever a time and a reason to be a slave to the market this is the time and reason.
If Belichick uses the draft and cap space to bring in 2 cheap backup QBs to compete and build a team around them with the rest of the money, he isn’t going to win. He knows that. Spending what it takes to be confident in the QB spot at the expense of spending money elsewhere is a much better plan.
Now we have to separate quality qb from name value and what other teams will pay for name value.
Let’s say Stafford is cut. He could demand top dollar but I don’t think he is worth backup money. He is severely overrated and no team will even win with him unless they win in spite of him. Darnold is the same thing.
Now I don’t love Prescott but I will pay him 30 mil before I pay Darnold or Stafford 10. Because you can win with Prescott. He needs help but he can be a winner. 20 million extra spent on other players wouldn’t let you win with Darnold or Stafford.
There are probably other QBs that are not as generally highly regarded as those guys but are more highly regarded by BB.
In my opinion belichick is going to get the best qb he can regardless of price and it’s the top, first and 100% must solve need. Whether the guy he considers best is the sane guy who other teams want to pay the most is another question.

Every single thing I have seen belichick do here tells me he will fix qb regardless of the cost (the downside would be the best fix is a draft choice who won’t be ready to win yet in 21) and will not accept another season like he just had. Honestly if he doesn’t fix it I would be convinced his mental faculties are failing.

Good post. I think we need to define "fix" the QB. I mean anything other than Newton will be an upgrade but I am not sure Prescott or Stafford provide all that much given all of the other holes. Prescott was pretty awful when he did not have decent weapons which is why Jerry broke the bank on Elliott which now looks to be a terrible signing. Stafford is the same. He needs top talent and I agree with you that he is not worth what you would have to pay in draft capital or salary.

It does seem like a no brainer to draft a QB high but I am not sure Bill does that. I really hope he does but he just not view the position like most GMs. I truly believe that he believes he can get by with an average QB because of his coaching ability. That is my fear. He can coach almost any player from a C to a B but you can't do that with the QB. You have to start with a B+ or an A- or else the whole team suffers.

 

[Kontradiction]

 

[Ring 6]

Good post. I think we need to define "fix" the QB. I mean anything other than Newton will be an upgrade but I am not sure Prescott or Stafford provide all that much given all of the other holes. Prescott was pretty awful when he did not have decent weapons which is why Jerry broke the bank on Elliott which now looks to be a terrible signing. Stafford is the same. He needs top talent and I agree with you that he is not worth what you would have to pay in draft capital or salary.

It does seem like a no brainer to draft a QB high but I am not sure Bill does that. I really hope he does but he just not view the position like most GMs. I truly believe that he believes he can get by with an average QB because of his coaching ability. That is my fear. He can coach almost any player from a C to a B but you can't do that with the QB. You have to start with a B+ or an A- or else the whole team suffers.

Everything he has ever done says the opposite of that conclusion.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Trey Lance QB is the move if we don’t trade the farm for Zach Wilson if not for him we trade up or let Trey Lance fall to us.

Captain if we want in the playoffs let alone a shot at a 7th title we need a generational QB and Lance maybe more talented than any of them.
He looks like a mix of Patrick and Russell we need to get this kid or Zach Wilson who looks like Andrew luck 2.0

 

[Patsgofor4]

We will likely draft a QB or more likely in the 2nd. Will this QB be better than Tua in 2020? Will he even be better than Fitzy who he would need to be ahead of to be the #4 instead of the #5.

Will we bring in a veteran who is better than Tua or Fields? We might; but it would cost.

BUF
will have a better QB

MIA
will have Tua plus a veteran

NYJ
will lively have Fields or Wilson

Not this sh*t again. Can we just wait until after the draft at least to post threads like this?
Allen will be #1 but the Jets may not even take a QB at 2 and if they take Fields he may very well struggle mightily in year 1, Tua has hasn’t proven that he is a legit NFL starter, and the Pats haven’t shown their QB cards yet. Seriously, what is the point of this thread in mid January?

 

[mgteich]

Good post. I think we need to define "fix" the QB. I mean anything other than Newton will be an upgrade but I am not sure Prescott or Stafford provide all that much given all of the other holes. Prescott was pretty awful when he did not have decent weapons which is why Jerry broke the bank on Elliott which now looks to be a terrible signing. Stafford is the same. He needs top talent and I agree with you that he is not worth what you would have to pay in draft capital or salary.

It does seem like a no brainer to draft a QB high but I am not sure Bill does that. I really hope he does but he just not view the position like most GMs. I truly believe that he believes he can get by with an average QB because of his coaching ability. That is my fear. He can coach almost any player from a C to a B but you can't do that with the QB. You have to start with a B+ or an A- or else the whole team suffers.

If we spend $25M on QB, there will still be plenty of cap money to use to re-sign and acquire free agants.

 

[VJCPatriot]

If we spend $25M on QB, there will still be plenty of cap money to use to re-sign and acquire free agants.

OK, and who can we get out there for 25m? Marcus Mariotta? Is he a guy who can drive this team to a division title or multiple playoff wins?

I'm not worried about Tua or Darnold yet, but Josh Allen looks like the real deal. Interesting that Buffalo spent a high pick on a QB, #7 and he panned out. Could the Patriots follow suit in 2021? This year's QB class seems really strong, and stronger than 2022 at the moment. One of the top 5 QBs will slide to us OR the Pats could trade up into the top 10 to get the guy they really want.

Speaking of cap management, there's no better financial bargain than a franchise QB on his rookie contract IF your scouting and draft decision pans out.

 

[Ring 6]

Not this sh*t again. Can we just wait until after the draft at least to post threads like this?
Allen will be #1 but the Jets may not even take a QB at 2 and if they take Fields he may very well struggle mightily in year 1, Tua has hasn’t proven that he is a legit NFL starter, and the Pats haven’t shown their QB cards yet. Seriously, what is the point of this thread in mid January?

No we must speculate on how crappy the unknown players that we don’t have yet already are.

 

[Ring 6]

OK, and who can we get out there for 25m? Marcus Mariotta? Is he a guy who can drive this team to a division title or multiple playoff wins?

I'm not worried about Tua or Darnold yet, but Josh Allen looks like the real deal. Interesting that Buffalo spent a high pick on a QB, #7 and he panned out. Could the Patriots follow suit in 2021? This year's QB class seems really strong, and stronger than 2022 at the moment. One of the top 5 QBs will slide to us OR the Pats could trade up into the top 10 to get the guy they really want.

Speaking of cap management, there's no better financial bargain than a franchise QB on his rookie contract IF your scouting and draft decision pans out.

You can get any QB for a first year cap number of 25 mill. We not only have 60 mill but we have it in a bottomed out cap year. So the cap will rise along with the QBs hit.
There are zero financial limitations on this team to get any qb who is available.

 

[Ring 6]

Captain if we want in the playoffs let alone a shot at a 7th title we need a generational QB and Lance maybe more talented than any of them.
He looks like a mix of Patrick and Russell we need to get this kid or Zach Wilson who looks like Andrew luck 2.0

You don’t need a “generational” QB to win in the playoffs. 13 playoffs games will be won this year. There might be 2 generational QBs.