My take on the draft and the Patriots search for a QB

[oldrover]

Jimmy IMHO is not viable because of fragility.

Seven seasons... one full... and all the rest he played six games or fewer. He can't be relied on to stay healthy.

At this point his career is about what Josh Gordon's is/was... one great season... plus a few flashes here and there... but overall quite disappointing. For different reasons, of course.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

I think it's very possible that the 49'ers part ways with Jimmy. They'll have to pay him nearly 25 million to keep him, and only eat 2.8million to cut him. He's missed three of the first four years he's been there, and his performance in their Superbowl run was more Alex Smith than Pat Mahomes. They can probably find a veteran replacement cheaper - or hell, couldn't Josh Rosen do what they asked of a healthy Jimmy G?

With the cap going down, these last two years on Jimmy's contract are a HUGE risk for someone so injury-riddled. Do they really want to eat up 13+% of their entire cap on Garopollo, given what they've had thus far? At the very least, I see them wanting why would he do that if he knows he can come back to New England and play in a system that seems to fit him beautifully?

Just a hunch, but he might be free - or in a trade where the other team gets to renegotiate before the deal.

BB is 68 not 35. He has won 6 super bowls and is changing Shula for all time wins. IF he stays, I doubt he has the patience for a full rebuild with a rookie QB unless that rookie QB had Trevor Wilson like talent.
THe ONLY path that makes sense is to bring either Jimmy G or Brisset back as they are familiar with the system and trusted by BB. Obviously BB loves Jimmy G and therefore I believe Jimmy G will be the guy. If he can not get Jimmy G or Brissett, Mariottta would be his next choice.
He will use his best draft assets to get a strong DT , WR, TE and LB.


Unfortunately we are without a non compensatory third year pick this year.


UPDATED; John Lynch says niners expect Jimmy G to be their QB. He has usually been true to his word, so now I think the Jimmy G option is less likely

 

[jdlboot14]

with all the knocks on BB, he is the most patient and anti-trend GM's ever. If free agency starts with all the vet QB's getting big deals and tons of movement to grab up all the Stafford/Wentz/Jimmy G types in trades, etc... then I could see him swinging for a top 1st rounder. But, I think his plan will be to try to isolate what skill set and decision maker fits best with our offense. One of the non-splashy guys that could still operate in a good system, even though they're old. He'll look for durable, high-character, motivated... could be Ryan, Dalton, Carr/Mariota, Foles, or I'm afraid to say - Rivers.
All things considered Ryan is the most like Brady of any QB out there. His stats and style are quite similar, and he'll still only just turn 36. He's been incredibly durable, but been stuck with horrible coaches and culture in ATL. I think Pats could win with him immediately.

 

[holyredeemer]

The first was just a hypothetical trade.. but considering his cap, the trade might not even materialize..

I’d hope not. Just wait for them to cut him. They’ve got to, right? At the very least reach a deal renegotiate.

 

[Rob0729]

Draft a QB and sign someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick to be a stopgap QB for a year. Not a draftnick. So I am the last guy to say who to draft. But I do know they won't be in position to draft one of the few guys who can start day one.

 

[VrabelJr]

Only perennial losers draft for need in the first round.

 

[50-yard-line]

I never thought about the cap angle.. you could be right. But with so many playmakrrs why go for a middling option when garopollo could be had for less.

Garopollo might need to sign contract whi ch includes playing time incentives whether its in SF or pats. I don't see pats to over pay him. So why bother to leave SF which has greater weapons.

I don't know - except that people sometimes get mad when the club tries to redo a deal - although Jimmy would have to be blind to not see this (possibly) coming.

It really comes down to SF's patience with him. He had one decent - not stratospheric, but just decent - year out of 4, missing 10, 13, and 10 games the other three years. SF has the talent and cap room to make another run or two, but they need a healthy QB. I just don't know, and admit a lot of this is speculation on my part. But geez, if they're laying out an extra $25m next year on a guy who can't stay on the field and is, you know, kind of critical to their playoff hopes...

The situation is different in New England. We believe BB and Josh really liked Jimmy from the reporting. In the end, it's just a hunch.

 

[Rob0729]

Only perennial losers draft for need in the first round.

Yes and no. If there is a player you need that is at least close to the value at where you are drafting, you can be very successful drafting for need in the first round. It is when all the talent you need is not remotely close to the draft position you are drafting and you make a major reach is when you are a loser.

Successful drafting is always a mix of need and drafting the best player available. It just depends on how much of each of those are weighted that may determine success vs. failure.

 

[Ring 6]

You can view the draft order here, Pats pick #15:

2021 NFL Draft order: Top 18 picks set; Eagles sixth

See the order for the first 18 picks of the 2021 NFL Draft, along with needs for each team.

www.nfl.com

Needless to say, yesterday's win was a real gut punch and eliminated any reasonable chance of the Pats drafting a stud QB. Here is my opinion on teams in front of us that are likely to draft a QB:
_____________
Obviously
______________

JAX
NYJ
CAR
DEN

________________
Maybe
________________
ATL
DET
DAL

_________________
Longhot
_________________
NYG
MIN

So that is likely 4-7 QBs taken off the the board before we draft. Rather than reach in round one for a QB I think Bill will target a different position where there is more value and maybe sift through the debris to see what is left for QBs in round two or three hoping to find a gem. I also think there is a better than not chance that we Cam back here next year to compete for the starting job.

I guess the counter would be there is a guy Bill loves still available at seven. The Lions stick with Stafford and the Panthers and Broncos have not picked yet. Maybe swing a trade to move up? But how? We can't really afford to give away a boatload of draft picks and I don't think that would work anyway. The Lions aren't moving down eight spots in the draft (out of the top ten) for a 31 year old Gilmore. They aren't exactly in win now mode. I can't think of a young player we have that would make it worth their while. Or maybe wait and hope Carolina and Denver (and one of those top four teams) screw up and you get the third or fourth best QB of the class. God knows Elway likes to draft bad QBs in round one.

Sorry, I don't see any path other than sheer luck, to us getting a good QB in this draft. I think we roll it back with Cam and continue to build the offense through the draft and free agency over the next three years. Then, maybe once you've done that, if you still don't have a QB, you go after one of these high priced veteran free. agent options, the Matthew Stafford type. Not a great QB, but good enough to win with the right team around him. Whomever is available at that point.

What are your thoughts? Am I right, wrong, completely off base?

You argument equates saying you got married found out they were the worst person in the world, got a divorce, then you decided you wanted to start dating and chose her.

 

[sb1]

Unfortunately we are without a non compensatory third year pick this year.

Yeah let's make another worthless Kraft documentary and point a camera at another team's sidelines. What a genius move that turned out to be.

 

[Cam2HarryGOAT]

Some of those teams are going to be reaching by drafting those QBs in the top 10. There are only two maybe three that belong up there. The rest should be late first or even second rounders.

Good point. Where in Maine are you from? If you don't mine me asking. I'm from Waterville.

 

[Taxed in Maine]

Good point. Where in Maine are you from? If you don't mine me asking. I'm from Waterville.

Cumberland County

 

[Captain Cliche]

This is unchartered territory for the Pats/BB Era. One more thing Brady brought to the team was stability at the QB position.

I think what BB wants and what he liked about Brady initially is the "do no harm, move the chains, game manager” type.
Cam was the antithesis to that.
Turnovers are killer and I'm sure BB/Ernie have done the math. Does he think of the QB position like he views receivers? Better to have a lower priced game manager as opposed to a high-priced high-risk gunslinger?

This will be interesting.

 

[farn]

BB won’t be as desperate as the fan base. A fan base that, weirdly, can’t sustain ONE bad season in 20 years without becoming hysterical.

If he likes a QB, he’ll take him. Otherwise, he’ll take a stab in the mid to late rounds. He will likely try to get a vet and a youngster. And they’ll compete w Stidham.

 

[Simpelton]

Jimmy IMHO is not viable because of fragility.

Seven seasons... one full... and all the rest he played six games or fewer. He can't be relied on to stay healthy.

At this point his career is about what Josh Gordon's is/was... one great season... plus a few flashes here and there... but overall quite disappointing. For different reasons, of course.

Been saying this for years about Jimmy G. It's not that he's fragile, either. It's that he takes unnecessary risks with his body. He tries to make plays that shouldn't be attempted and will put his body on the line to do it. He sacrifices the war to win the battle.

If he know when to slide and/or throw the ball away he'd be a superstar.

 

[Gabriel_p94]

I really don’t think we should worry about getting rookie qb in the first round this year and I’ll even go as far to say we shouldn’t worry about it in the second round either( unless of course by some miracle Lawrence falls to us). As for right where we will be picking it looks like Mac Jones, Kyle trask, and maybe trey lance will be available and at that point I don’t see it being worth taking any of them.

I’m hoping with all of our picks this year they are used to set the table for when we eventually do take a young qb in the draft. The way I’m looking at it is IF( and that’s a big if for us when it comes to certain positions) we can draft well and fill the holes on the team through the draft and through free agency then it wouldn’t hurt for us to get a stop gap qb to hold down the team until we find a young qb that the team can validate trading up if need be to get him. At that point whoever is drafted is stepping into the best possible situation.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Am I the only one who hopes all 14 teams in front of us draft a QB?

Kyle Pitts would be a nice addition to this team.

Me too! Let the other teams waste their first round picks on a QB and pick up a vet, a good one from a crappy team.

That being said, I sure hope that the Patriots do NOT use their first pick on a WR.

 

[Redman443]

I want Kyle Trask. Brady type of QB, accurate and not mobile.

 

[Redman443]

I really don’t think we should worry about getting rookie qb in the first round this year and I’ll even go as far to say we shouldn’t worry about it in the second round either( unless of course by some miracle Lawrence falls to us). As for right where we will be picking it looks like Mac Jones, Kyle trask, and maybe trey lance will be available and at that point I don’t see it being worth taking any of them.

I’m hoping with all of our picks this year they are used to set the table for when we eventually do take a young qb in the draft. The way I’m looking at it is IF( and that’s a big if for us when it comes to certain positions) we can draft well and fill the holes on the team through the draft and through free agency then it wouldn’t hurt for us to get a stop gap qb to hold down the team until we find a young qb that the team can validate trading up if need be to get him. At that point whoever is drafted is stepping into the best possible situation.

"Trask also lacks the deep ball arm strength of an elite NFL quarterback. The majority of his success at Florida comes from short and intermediate passes that give the wide receiver the opportunity to make yardage after the catch. If he is to be considered a future starting NFL quarterback, that will need to be his main area of improvement."

Well hell that was Brady for 20 years

 

[Triumph]

The Pats need to keep Cam.

Dont throw the baby out with the bath water.