Rooting for Baltimore or Buffalo next week?

[italian pat patriot]

Mmm...not easy decision but i go with the Bills...

 

[Oswlek]

None of this may matter when you consider that a Patriots victory over KC this weekend would likely send them to the 4th seed. If KC travels to Baltimore in the playoffs, they stand a 50/50 chance of winning there (we made Baltimore's backfield look all-world somehow, but the Chiefs would expose them).

Beat KC and then you don't have to worry about the rest.

Agreed, KC and Baltimore squaring off in the playoffs is nearly as important to me as home field throughout. Despite what just happened, the Texans aren't winning in NE in January. And if they do, then NE wasn't a SB team.

 

[Oswlek]

It’s insane that anyone is rooting for the Bills to win. This isn’t your typical Patriots season. The division is legitimately up for grabs if the Patriots stumble again against the Chiefs.

Focus on the division, worry about the playoffs when they come.

I look at it as a win/win. Baltimore stumbles and NE has a shot at the top seed again or Buffalo cedes some ground in the division. It's an improvement on their current position either way.

 

[Haterproof]

I look at it as a win/win. Baltimore stumbles and NE has a shot at the top seed again or Buffalo cedes some ground in the division. It's an improvement on their current position either way.

It's definitely a win win situation for the Pats especially if they can ride the ship and win on Sunday!

 

[Tony2046]

I can't understand the logic of rooting for Buffalo but here we are.

HFA is the logic. I understand it but I agree that getting the division is first priority.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

HFA is the logic. I understand it but I agree that getting the division is first priority.

Yea I get that HFA is the "logic" but as you pointed out its 2nd to the division. I'd argue by a good bit considering what could happen in the next few weeks.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Lol at people who are really rooting for the Ravens.

The Patriots have lost like two meaningful home games to AFC opponents in the last ten seasons, but you wouldn’t go broke for HFA, and you’re worried that the Patriots will lose at home to the Chiefs and Bills to lose the division??? Makes sense these people are vastly undervaluing perhaps the biggest homefield advantage in the history of American sports.

Any probability model will show a Bills win over the Ravens is significantly better for the Patriots than vice versa.

 

[Kdo5]

Lol at people who are really rooting for the Ravens.

The Patriots have lost like two meaningful home games to AFC opponents in the last ten seasons, but you wouldn’t go broke for HFA, and you’re worried that the Patriots will lose at home to the Chiefs and Bills to lose the division??? Makes sense these people are vastly undervaluing perhaps the biggest homefield advantage in the history of American sports.

Any probability model will show a Bills win over the Ravens is significantly better for the Patriots than vice versa.

The Bills beat an inept offense in 2016 w/Brisset in Foxboro. Our current offense is nearly as bad, so Buffalo has a real chance.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The Bills beat an inept offense in 2016 w/Brisset in Foxboro. Our current offense is nearly as bad, so Buffalo has a real chance.

That makes absolutely no difference...you are choosing your preferred outcome based on a game played three years ago with completely different circumstances.

The Bills have almost zero chance to win the division. If they beat the Ravens, they still would need to win @PIT and @NE. AND the Patriots would still need to lose to the Chiefs too. That would be a total of four road underdog victories against winning teams. Take out the scrub opponents and here’s what MUST happen for the Bills to win the division:

Buffalo wins @Baltimore
KC wins @New England
Buffalo wins @Pittsburgh
Buffalo wins @New England

Do you know what the incredibly low odds this has if happening? Meanwhile the Patriots and Ravens have a 50% chance to meet in the AFFCG, where homefield is absolutely essential. This is a fantasy worst-case scenario (NE loses division) versus a very reasonable chance (AFC Champion decided by homefield advantage,)

 

[SHOWTIME15]

The Bills beat an inept offense in 2016 w/Brisset in Foxboro. Our current offense is nearly as bad, so Buffalo has a real chance.

Let's see where the offense is in a few weeks. If the Pat's put 30 points up this week, maybe the offensive woes are over..

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

It’s insane that anyone is rooting for the Bills to win. This isn’t your typical Patriots season. The division is legitimately up for grabs if the Patriots stumble again against the Chiefs.

Focus on the division, worry about the playoffs when they come.

If it’s legitimately up for grabs, please do yourself a favor and go put all of your savings on Buffalo at a sports book. You’ll probably get a 10:1 payout. The Patriots win a tiebreaker over Buffalo if they have the same record (even if Buffalo wins in Foxboro.) There is tiny, tiny chance that the Patriots lose the division. They would have to completely collapse and lose two home games, and Buffalo would have to win the three consecutive three road games: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New England. It is far from legitimately up for grabs and is considered an absolute lock for the Patriots by anyone who is paying attention to the upcoming schedules, probabilities, and tiebreakers.

 

[Tony2046]

That makes absolutely no difference...you are choosing your preferred outcome based on a game played three years ago with completely different circumstances.

The Bills have almost zero chance to win the division. If they beat the Ravens, they still would need to win @PIT and @NE. AND the Patriots would still need to lose to the Chiefs too. That would be a total of four road underdog victories against winning teams. Take out the scrub opponents and here’s what MUST happen for the Bills to win the division:

Buffalo wins @Baltimore
KC wins @New England
Buffalo wins @Pittsburgh
Buffalo wins @New England

Do you know what the incredibly low odds this has if happening? Meanwhile the Patriots and Ravens have a 50% chance to meet in the AFFCG, where homefield is absolutely essential. This is a fantasy worst-case scenario (NE loses division) versus a very reasonable chance (AFC Champion decided by homefield advantage,)

I still think you get the division first although I'll admit that you have a strong argument.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I still think you get the division first although I'll admit that you have a strong argument.

There’s really no chronological order this needs to go in. Buffalo has like a 2% chance to win the division which increases to like 5% with a win. Overall probability is what matters. A Buffalo win or loss is very unlikely to make any difference to the Patriots winning the division; a Baltimore loss is a huge deal in the big picture. If Baltimore wins, everyone will wish they had rooted for Buffalo, since they aren’t a threat unless the Patriots collapse and Buffalo plays the most impressive stretch of road football of any team in recent memory. The Patriots are finishing up the tough part of their schedule and the Bills are beginning theirs. The tiebreaker going to the Patriots makes this theoretical Buffalo run for the division a some kind of fractional probability floating around and nothing more.

 

[mgteich]

I think that we are dealing with those who came after Belichick and Brady.

They forget what we learned from Parcells, and later form Belichick. FIRST, you worry about the division. Well, obviously, first you worry about the next game.

Obviously rooting for Baltimore seeing as how a loss to the Bills on Dec.21 would send New England to the 5th seed as a wildcard.

Why would anyone worry about HFA when the division is a super tight race with a handful of games to go? They must really be pinning their hopes on a sure thing victory against a team they scored 16 points on the first time, but that makes little sense.

 

[mgteich]

If BUF is good enough to beat BALT, then they will also be likely to beat PITT. If the patriots lose to KC, then the game with BUF would be for the division.

Yes, it is a very big longshot. That is primarily because, as of now, BUF doesn't seem to be good enough to beat BALT.

 

[DaBronxPats14]

First and Foremost, Pats to Win Out and Bills this week.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

HFA is the logic. I understand it but I agree that getting the division is first priority.

 

[The Brandon Five]

That makes absolutely no difference...you are choosing your preferred outcome based on a game played three years ago with completely different circumstances.

The Bills have almost zero chance to win the division. If they beat the Ravens, they still would need to win @PIT and @NE. AND the Patriots would still need to lose to the Chiefs too. That would be a total of four road underdog victories against winning teams. Take out the scrub opponents and here’s what MUST happen for the Bills to win the division:

Buffalo wins @Baltimore
KC wins @New England
Buffalo wins @Pittsburgh
Buffalo wins @New England

Do you know what the incredibly low odds this has if happening? Meanwhile the Patriots and Ravens have a 50% chance to meet in the AFFCG, where homefield is absolutely essential. This is a fantasy worst-case scenario (NE loses division) versus a very reasonable chance (AFC Champion decided by homefield advantage,)

Buffalo gets to play the Ravens in Orchard Park. I was hoping for bad weather, but forecast looks clear and about 40 degrees.

 

[captain stone]

Seeing that the Patsies still control their own destiny regarding Seed #1, for however brief a time that might be, then there is No Feckin Way that I will ever, Ever, EVER hope for a Murderer-Worshippers win. Damn to hell that entire sh!thole franchise and everyone associating with it.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

I think all the "division first" folks are getting their wish anyway as I expect Baltimore to curb stomp the Bills.

Regards,
Chris