8/15 - Thursday Pats/Titans Joint Session Thread

[patchick]

People are forgetting that the Patriots didn't bring back Humbar and McClellan. Two HUGE pieces of the Special Teams turn around last season. People should be focused on how the Patriots are replacing them instead of how they are getting rid of Ebner..

To be fair, they also added two ST mavens in Bolden and Brooks.

 

[patchick]

The nightmare scenario: Due to injuries at the wide receiver position, Gunner gets more exposure and plays well. The Pats would love to keep him on the 53 but there is no space for a developmental player with such a stacked roster. They tried to sneak him onto the PS but he gets claimed by a rebuilding team and two years from now is the best slot WR in the league.

I'm ok with my "nightmare scenario" being an excess of talent that keeps me from squeezing a promising rookie onto the roster.

 

[DaBruinz]

One of the things that I think will benefit the Patriots this year is the fact that Brady has been forced to develop a rapport with players other than Edelman and Gronk in TC..

Things seem to be better with Dorsett and reports that the rapport is there with Harris and Meyers while also growing with Berrios.

I think that we can ALL agree that the more tertiary players that Brady has a rapport with early on, the better the team will be over-all because they'll be able to be on the same page as Brady more easily when called upon.

 

[DaBruinz]

To be fair, they also added two ST mavens in Bolden and Brooks.

Bolden is, by no means, a lock. Though Brooks, in all likelihood is, because of his contract.

From what I read, Brooks and Bolden actually played the same position on the line for their respective teams last year.

Ebner led the team in Special Teams snap count. He is up there with Slater, Jon Jones, and Brandon King. It's going to take a LOT to replace one of those 4 players.

 

[203Pat]

What you're using as the basis for your "fading" claim is statistics mining that shows a drop of 7 catches from the first year to the second, and then an admittedly bigger drop from year 2 to 3, but a 7 catch fluctuation is nothing, especially for a WR2, and the drop from year 2 to year 3 can obviously be at least partly attributed to the QB turnover and coaching problems in Denver.

In other words, you're taking something that was possibly a small to non-existent diminishment, and blowing it up because it fits your narrative. It seems to me that "silly" was a kind way of pointing that out.

I am "blowing it up" by posting black and white statistics? I said he was fading, I didn't say he went off a cliff. Fading: "gradually grow faint and disappear" The last few years his stats have gradually declined. Gradually less targets, less catches, less yards, less receptions per game, less yards per catch. Maybe you're right. Maybe it's the quarterbacks faults that he declined in almost every meaningful way the last few years.

 

[BTTA]

Berrios is just as valuable on the practice squad as on the team (if he gets through wavers). He'd only make an active roster is someone (Edelman) is hurt, at WR or as a punt returner.

The Thomas vs. Gordon debate is pretty silly given the two hurdles the guys have to get over. Health isn't Thomas' only obstacle; at 31 with a year of rust and recovery, he might be completely healthy but not physically able to return to high enough performance.

Let's just hope that both guys progress along their (very different) paths to the roster and we end up with Edelman, Gordon, Thomas, Harris, and young phenom Meyers, with Gunner and Berrios on the practice squad. Nice present to Brady and Josh.

 

[Bruins29]

DT league ranking in Yards last few years
2017 - 20th
2016 - 14th
2015 - 7th
2014 - 2nd
2013 - 4th
2012 - 4th

Gordons best season 2013 87 receptions for 1646 yards and 9 TD 54.7 catch rate
Thomas's best season 2014 111 receptions for 1619 yards and 11 TD 60.3 catch rate

Gordon had one monster year. Thomas has had essentially 4 monster years each over 1300 yards

Even if we go by yards per game (since Josh missed so many games)

Gordon YPG over career
50
117
60
67
61
65

Thomas YPG over career
28
50
89
89
101
81
67
59
45

Right now I would guess that Gordon is a better player as he is younger and is not returning from an injury. But to dismiss Thomas as some 2nd tier WR is crazy. Thomas was Gordon in 2014 after Gordon had his huge year. Thomas has had 4x as many elite seasons as Gordon has.

 

[DaBruinz]

Who was the last UDFA WR that made the 53 and was a serious contributor?

Kenbrell Thompkins.

How many CBs prior to Malcolm Butler were UDFA, made the 53 and were a "serious contributor"?

Prior to Adam Butler, who was the last UDFA DT to be a "serious contributor"?

How long has it been since the Pats had a UDFA OT be a "serious contributor"?

My point is that things happen all the time that "break molds". For the longest time, BB never drafted an underclassmen. Then Ben Watson came along. BB never drafted a 1st round skill player.. Then he drafted Maroney. And recently drafted Harry.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results..

 

[203Pat]

Bolden is, by no means, a lock. Though Brooks, in all likelihood is, because of his contract.

From what I read, Brooks and Bolden actually played the same position on the line for their respective teams last year.

Ebner led the team in Special Teams snap count. He is up there with Slater, Jon Jones, and Brandon King. It's going to take a LOT to replace one of those 4 players.

Bolden is a lock. His cap hit is $1.7 mill this year while his dead cap money if cut is $2 mill.

 

[patchick]

Bolden is, by no means, a lock. Though Brooks, in all likelihood is, because of his contract.

FYI Bolden actually got significantly more guaranteed money than Brooks and would cost more to cut. Whereas cutting Ebner would save $1.4 million against the cap.

I absolutely do value Ebner's contributions, but it makes sense to consider this a bubble year for him.

 

[catent]

DT had 41 TD's, 5787 yards from 2012-2015, 4 straight Pro Bowls, 2 All Pro.

Gordon has 19 TD's, 3,826 in his entire career.

Gordon's best season: 1646 yards/9 TD's
DT's best season: 1619 yards/11 TD's

DT was a Top 3 receiver from 2012-2015. Gordon, so far, is nothing but a one hit wonder. One great season, 6 years ago.

The statistics indicate that Gordon has been roughly half as productive in far less than half the time/games played.

It seems to reinforce the argument that Gordon has more ability than Thomas (although not by a big margin, Thomas himself is a very gifted WR). This isn't/shouldn't be a controversial opinion; Gordon has the ability to be one of the best receivers in the history of the league, his issue has been staying on the field.

All that said, Thomas has been much more consistent/reliable throughout his career insofar as staying on the field.

 

[Froob]

Surprised McLennan didn't sign anywhere. He was great for us.

 

[shmessy]

To be fair, they also added two ST mavens in Bolden and Brooks.

Yeah, I hear the valid point @DaBruinz is saying, and Ebner has always been a favorite of mine, but damn.....this is the deepest camp I've ever seen at almost every position except TE and OL. There is a plethora of ST talent, with some of those guys capable of adequately filling in regular positions (which Ebner hasn't shown).

Also, Ebner is a hefty cap for a STer - $2,787,500. He'd only be $600k dead cap, for a savings of $2,187,500.

I wish we could keep all of 'em but overall, I think Bolden ($1.7 hit, $2 million dead) , Brooks ($1,450,000 hit, $1,305,000 dead), etc. bring more to the table at lower costs and bigger penalties for getting cut (*per numbers per overthecap.com). I only hear stuff about Calhoun and have never seen the guy, so I'm withholding judgement at this time.

Full disclosure: I'm no cap expert - - my eyes usually glaze over when people discuss the details of it, but these numbers seem clear enough to digest even for me.

.

.

 

[patchick]

Yeah, I hear the valid point @DaBruinz is saying, and Ebner has always been a favorite of mine, but damn.....this is the deepest camp I've ever seen at almost every position except TE and OL. There is a plethora of ST talent, with some of those guys capable of adequately filling in regular positions (which Ebner hasn't shown).

Also, Ebner is a hefty cap for a STer - $2,787,500. He'd only be $600k dead cap, for a savings of $2,187,500.

I wish we could keep all of 'em but overall, I think Bolden ($1.7 hit, $2 million dead) , Brooks ($1,450,000 hit, $1,305,000 dead), etc. bring more to the table at lower costs (*per numbers per overthecap.com). I only hear stuff about Calhoun and have never seen the guy, so I'm withholding judgement at this time.

Full disclosure: I'm no cap expert - - my eyes usually glaze over when people discuss the details of it, but these numbers seem simple enough to digest even for me.

Yep, and Brandon King is another ST stalwart with a lower cap hit and higher dead money hit than Ebner. The numbers just aren't in his favor.

 

[shmessy]

I'm ok with my "nightmare scenario" being an excess of talent that keeps me from squeezing a promising rookie onto the roster.

The very definition of "First World Problems"

.

 

[shmessy]

One of the things that I think will benefit the Patriots this year is the fact that Brady has been forced to develop a rapport with players other than Edelman and Gronk in TC..

Things seem to be better with Dorsett and reports that the rapport is there with Harris and Meyers while also growing with Berrios.

I think that we can ALL agree that the more tertiary players that Brady has a rapport with early on, the better the team will be over-all because they'll be able to be on the same page as Brady more easily when called upon.

The depth on this team, man........

And the irony/silver lining that they can sandbag past the TC cutdown date talent like Watson, Thomas and Gordon??????

.

 

[Ring 6]

A 31 year-old WR coming off an achilles injury has a lot to overcome. That's not to say Thomas can't fully recover, but if you're going to consider history as it pertains to Gordon, surely you should consider history in light of Thomas too, right? History indicates that a 30+ year-old WR coming off a significant injury is unlikely to return to prior form.

Once again we are presuming he gets healthy just as we are presuming Gordon gets unsuspended

And to be fair, Thomas has never been a "top tier" WR. Great at times? Yes. But top-tier is an overstatement IMO. Gordon, at his peak, is a top-tier WR.

Are you kidding me?
Thomas best seasons
111/1619/11
94/1434/10
92/1430/14
105/1304/6
Please find me all the receivers who bump tha out of top tier.

Gordon’s best seasons
87/1646/9
50/805/5
41/737/4

Thomas has beaten Gordon’s 2nd best season of his life in catches 7 times in yards 6 times and on TDs 7 times.

Let's also apply your "why would he have been signed" logic to Gordon. Why would the team have signed Gordon, and then kept him on the roster this offseason, if there isn't "a good chance he will be [able] to play"? If the that line of reasoning applies to Thomas, then surely it does for Gordon too, right?

So your argument is that you expect Gordon to get reinstated and despite getting suspended every single year this time he won’t?
Gordon was kept after being suspended again because there was no decision to be made. They aren’t paying him a nickel.

 

[supafly]

Simply because he’s not playing @ TEN so he went back to NE for treatment. That’s it.

When’s the last time we’ve heard of that happening? I don’t recall too many instances for something that Reiss says is “common” for players to do.

 

[mgteich]

Of course not, but past performance is a strong indicator. Obviously, OTE, we should favor folks with better past performance.

.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results..

 

[mgteich]

absolutely

I don't think that Belichick will change is philosophy and play a backup punt returner and sit Edelman. As someone asked in other post, should we also sit Edelman during clear running downs because we fear that he might be injured?

Unless they don't want JE to be the prime anymore.