Bob's big board and draft grades 2019

[manxman2601]

I'm mostly with you. It's easy to envision a scenario where Simmons is far and away the biggest talent available at #32, but I'd still hesitate to pull the trigger. I'm not so sold on Lawrence, though, and the TE board is going to look weird at that point....

Aw, who are we kidding. They're trading up for Zach Allen.

Don’t know about trading up from 32, but I’m all on board for taking him at 32. Might not be Chandler Jones-esque as a pass rusher but he’ll start for five years before being lost to another team on a mega-contract. Hey! Maybe we could use a 3rd rounder for a trade up because we’d get it back as a comp pick in five years time.

 

[manxman2601]

a 7.9 grade for Simmons? That's an extremely high grade that suggests you believe he will be an All-pro at the NFL level and should be a top 10 overall pick.

Meanwhile PFW only gives him a grade of 6.4. And most mocks I see have Simmons missing the first round or barely cracking the bottom of the 1st. What are you seeing that the other draftniks are missing?

Quick question -- If the Pats took Simmons at #32 do you believe he would help improve the Pats 27th worst run defense ranking of 4.9 yards given up per carry?

Lance Zierlein grades him as the 2nd best prospect in the draft fwiw.

 

[BobDigital]

I don’t remember Malcolm Brown or Danny Shelton offering much in the way off pass rush and we were prepared to spend a 1st on one and a 3rd for one year of the other. I’m not convinced pass rush from the interior is that important to us - that’s what the sub interior rushers are for.
It’s interesting that a forum that lusted after Vita Vea last year seems a bit less interested in Lawrence this year. Not meant as a dig at the forum (or any individuals), it’s just that they’re very similar prospects and for long periods, Vea was all this forum seemed to talk about last year.

I’ll leave you with one final nugget. In their freshman years, Ed Oliver and Lawrence had identical pass rushing grades from PFF. Lawrence is not just a run stuffer.

Very true. I tried to figure out why that was and I found that coming out of HS Lawrence was 'only' 280lbs. I don't have the exact figures but I imagine he played his freshman year at Clemson somewhere between 280-310lbs. I think that had a lot to do with it.

Personally I think it was a mistake for him to keep adding weight if he could have been another Ed Oliver if he stayed at 290 lbs or so.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Very true. I tried to figure out why that was and I found that coming out of HS Lawrence was 'only' 280lbs. I don't have the exact figures but I imagine he played his freshman year at Clemson somewhere between 280-310lbs. I think that had a lot to do with it.

Personally I think it was a mistake for him to keep adding weight if he could have been another Ed Oliver if he stayed at 290 lbs or so.

For highschool, 24/7 Sports had him at 300 (according to the details at the bottom of the page; his summary at the top has him at 327), and Hudl had him at 330.

Dexter Lawrence, Wake Forest, Defensive Tackle

Dexter Lawrence II on Hudl

He was probably in the 310 - 320 range his freshman season. I think he'd be awesome at that weight; he doesn't need the extra 25 pounds for run stopping, not with his strength.

 

[patchick]

I don’t remember Malcolm Brown or Danny Shelton offering much in the way off pass rush and we were prepared to spend a 1st on one and a 3rd for one year of the other.

FWIW, I remember Brown differently as a prospect. I thought the reason he was a target was that he was the last DT on the board who was considered to have a full, balanced skillset. It didn't turn out that way, but here's the NFL.com summary from the time:

"Penetrating big man who took a huge step forward as an NFL prospect in 2014. Brown has hand quickness and uses hands like an NFL starter. His instincts and feel off the snap help him to get into the backfield quickly. Some personnel men believe Brown can play multiple spots along the line in a 4-3 or 3-4 defense, which could put him in play for a high number of teams."

 

[manxman2601]

FWIW, I remember Brown differently as a prospect. I thought the reason he was a target was that he was the last DT on the board who was considered to have a full, balanced skillset. It didn't turn out that way, but here's the NFL.com summary from the time:

"Penetrating big man who took a huge step forward as an NFL prospect in 2014. Brown has hand quickness and uses hands like an NFL starter. His instincts and feel off the snap help him to get into the backfield quickly. Some personnel men believe Brown can play multiple spots along the line in a 4-3 or 3-4 defense, which could put him in play for a high number of teams."

He may have had versatility but the production wasn’t there. He had 1 career college sack and 5 career tackles for loss compared to Lawrence’s 10 and 18 respectively. I acknowledge that college statistics aren’t everything but I think Lawrence is better on tape too. I certainly think that Pennel makes Lawrence less of a certainty but this is a team where Vince Wilfork was a mainstay and one where, just last year, we traded for someone much like Lawrence. After the Pennel signing, I do think there are other areas that might be addressed by BB before Lawrence, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to think that BB might want what Lawrence would bring to the team.

 

[BobDigital]

Jalen Jelks – DE Oregon

6'5 and 256lbs. He ran the worst 40 of any edge player at 4.92. His bench, VJ, BJ, 3CT and 20YS were all near the bottom or at the bottom. Basically his combine was a total disaster and he came out with his draft stock taking a big hit. While I don't think any single test in itself can tell you a ton about a player the entire round of them gives you insight into the kind of athlete you're getting. This suggest that Jelks has a limited ceiling potentially. He didn't do much to redeem himself at his pro day as he only managed to match his VJ and do even less on the bench press.



0:43 -This was just awful. More than missing tackle the hesitation here is just terrible. He then compensates for his lack of aggression by being over aggressive with his angle. I don't tend to like to point out bad plays but this just made me mad.

2:08 – Demonstrating his power to hold the edge. For a guy that didn't do much on the bench he has a lot of strength. Just goes to show how overrated the bench can me.

4:30 – Shows off his power here. Yes it turns into a big play but more importantly it shows you just how strong he is in his lower body.

The tape of him wasn't a ton fun plays, but I saw some interesting things. The first that comes to mind is how solidly he can hold an edge. It isn't a glamorous job, but there's value in doing it. He's always active doing something. He got a lot of passes defended and there's a reason. If he can't get to the QB his hands usually go up. If there's one thing about being a pass rusher he does very well I would say it's getting defenders off his frame. It isn't sexy, but it helps him stay an active part of the play. He's a better athlete on the field than he tested, but still not special. Rushes equally well from the interior and exterior. Often played on the inside and didn't get pushed around by the guards as much as I expected for a guy his size.

When I look at him I see a blue collar player not unlike Rob Ninkovich (he ran a 4.91 40 btw). Has enough pass rush to be respected for it, but the what will make or break his career is how well he continues to hold the edge at the next level. Has the tools to pass rush with speed and power and has a few decent moves in his tool box. Has potential to be one of the starters fans really like but fans of other teams don't hear about. A guy who does a lot of thankless work to facilitate your stars while making an occasional play himself is how i see him. Will he be that? I have no idea, but I think he has a future in the NFL. I see him as a 4-3 DE more than anything else. Grade 4.7

 

[BobDigital]

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson – SS Florida

5'11 210lbs. He had a good 40, Bench, 3CT, 20YS, VJ and a bad BJ. He wasn't amazing at any one thing but overall solid. When you consider 210lbs makes him one of the heaviest safeties at the combine those numbers look a tiny bit more impressive. His stats particularly the last 2 years have been good and over 3 years have suggested progression and improvement.



2:07 – There are a lot of plays you could point out with CGJ gets off his block to make the play. This was my favorite. The WR should absolutely own this angle. It's in wide open space. He still gets away and saves the first down.

3:05 – He saves a potential TD here (or at least 20 more yards) after the LB completely blows his assignment. Get's off his block quickly when he realizes it's pointless and breaks for the huge hole he knows the QB will run through.

3:42 – Again he easily brushes the WR off and attacks the ball.

4:18 – I'll let this one speak for itself. The only thing I'll add is from the get go he knew something was up and that is why he was so quick to react to it and make the play. I love when smarts meets ability like this.

5:34 – Hardly text book but he knocked a TE on his ass here. Fun to watch.

The good. When he gets his hands the ball he usually makes a big play with it. Plays with the aggression and violence you want to see. Looks athletic and fluid. Routinely defeats blocks. A good mix of intelligence and aggression. Good at defending underneath routes. Plays like the other team insulted his momma.

The bad. Can get a little too physical in coverage. There were a lot of non-calls that could have easily been called. Coverage isn't as tight as it could be at times If you get him in a vertical route against a WR that would be a very unfavorable match up. Even a TE going vertical could be bad. Would have been a better player 10 years ago.

Overall. You love what he can do and accept what he can't. That's the bottom line. He lives within 15 yards of the LOS, period. He plays like an old school SS and I mean that in both the good and bad ways. His defense on underneath and short routes is fine. If he goes up the field to the 2nd level he starts to get into trouble and you see separation. He wants to attack the ball and has a nose for it. Keep him near the LOS and let him make the plays he's able to make for you. Would work best on a team that runs a single high FS. On another defense I wouldn't like him as much. Grade 5.8

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson – SS Florida

5'11 210lbs. He had a good 40, Bench, 3CT, 20YS, VJ and a bad BJ. He wasn't amazing at any one thing but overall solid. When you consider 210lbs makes him one of the heaviest safeties at the combine those numbers look a tiny bit more impressive. His stats particularly the last 2 years have been good and over 3 years have suggested progression and improvement.



2:07 – There are a lot of plays you could point out with CGJ gets off his block to make the play. This was my favorite. The WR should absolutely own this angle. It's in wide open space. He still gets away and saves the first down.

3:05 – He saves a potential TD here (or at least 20 more yards) after the LB completely blows his assignment. Get's off his block quickly when he realizes it's pointless and breaks for the huge hole he knows the QB will run through.

3:42 – Again he easily brushes the WR off and attacks the ball.

4:18 – I'll let this one speak for itself. The only thing I'll add is from the get go he knew something was up and that is why he was so quick to react to it and make the play. I love when smarts meets ability like this.

5:34 – Hardly text book but he knocked a TE on his ass here. Fun to watch.

The good. When he gets his hands the ball he usually makes a big play with it. Plays with the aggression and violence you want to see. Looks athletic and fluid. Routinely defeats blocks. A good mix of intelligence and aggression. Good at defending underneath routes. Plays like the other team insulted his momma.

The bad. Can get a little too physical in coverage. There were a lot of non-calls that could have easily been called. Coverage isn't as tight as it could be at times If you get him in a vertical route against a WR that would be a very unfavorable match up. Even a TE going vertical could be bad. Would have been a better player 10 years ago.

Overall. You love what he can do and accept what he can't. That's the bottom line. He lives within 15 yards of the LOS, period. He plays like an old school SS and I mean that in both the good and bad ways. His defense on underneath and short routes is fine. If he goes up the field to the 2nd level he starts to get into trouble and you see separation. He wants to attack the ball and has a nose for it. Keep him near the LOS and let him make the plays he's able to make for you. Would work best on a team that runs a single high FS. On another defense I wouldn't like him as much. Grade 5.8

Curious if you watched his game against Michigan, because he shows a lot of range and ball hawking in that game. I'm probably higher on his coverage than you, but lower on his tackling -- which admittedly is better than it was last year -- but I think he may even end up at corner.

EDIT: CGJ is what I hope Dawson turns into it. I can't help but think we may have jumped the gun a year early on a slot defender from Florida.

 

[BobDigital]

Curious if you watched his game against Michigan, because he shows a lot of range and ball hawking in that game. I'm probably higher on his coverage than you, but lower on his tackling -- which admittedly is better than it was last year -- but I think he may even end up at corner.

EDIT: CGJ is what I hope Dawson turns into it. I can't help but think we may have jumped the gun a year early on a slot defender from Florida.

I did not watch that one. I'll check it out

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I did not watch that one. I'll check it out

He still plays mostly slot, but he does a nice job covering downfield and showed great awareness on a couple interceptions. Last year he was more of a free safety, but this year he's really playing slot corner with some freedom to blitz or drop back into deep zones. I really like his playmaking ability. He'd fit well in our group.

 

[captain stone]

EDIT: CGJ is what I hope Dawson turns into it. I can't help but think we may have jumped the gun a year early on a slot defender from Florida.

Damn right we did.

 

[BobDigital]

Curious if you watched his game against Michigan, because he shows a lot of range and ball hawking in that game. I'm probably higher on his coverage than you, but lower on his tackling -- which admittedly is better than it was last year -- but I think he may even end up at corner.

EDIT: CGJ is what I hope Dawson turns into it. I can't help but think we may have jumped the gun a year early on a slot defender from Florida.

I just checked out the Michigan game. I assume your talking about his first interception? It was a nice play but personally i wasn't too impressed. When you really look at it the ball was massively under thrown and arguably he messed up earlier in the play and was lucky to recover due to an under thrown ball. I don't believe at all that he baited the QB. If anything this is more evidence of him not being good at defending vertical routes.

Don't get me wrong, it shows good speed and the return was great but I think this is more lucky than a clever read. At least that's the way I saw it.

As for the other pick I think that's an example of good things happening when he is near the LOS. He's very fast to react to things he facing. Admittedly any number of players could have made that Int but his jump after seeing the tipped pass was instant. A lot of other players would have failed to take it to the house. It was an interesting game to watch but I think I like my grade as is. It displayed his straight line speed well.

 

[BobDigital]

Parris Campbell – WR Ohio State

6'0 and 205lbs. He turned heads at the combine with his 4.31 speed, 40 VJ and 135 BJ 4.03 20YS. All top or near the top times. He's a rare athlete with a ton of upside. He had a good year statistically and so on paper he checks every single box you want. Decent size, speed and quickness and production. Let's see what the tape has to say.



While I watched Campbell the the name that kept popping into my mind was Cordarrelle Patterson. Some of it's an unfair comparison, but some is very fair. Ohio State ran a fairly complex offense, but Campbell wasn't really included in it much. He was mostly just a guy that they wanted to find a way to get the ball to. I can see why. He has speed and quickness to waste. But if he's to be an NFL WR, I see a lot of work that needs to be done.

He'll need to learn almost the entire route save for the few short routes he's been running and he'll need to learn how to use his hands and positioning to win. In all the tape I watched I don't think I saw him even attempt anything crafty. The play design did most of the work for getting him open. His hands are a bit suspect. He didn't need to catch too many hard passes and the ones he did often didn't look clean. He needs to learn how to place his hands better so he isn't catching the back end of the ball. He's a talent prospect but way more raw that I thought he would be considering how he's talked about as a first round pick. To me assuming you can teach him to play WR is the kind of hubris far too many coaches and GMs have. Usually it doesn't work that easily. I think he likely becomes a better WR than Patterson, but I foresee a number of similar bumps in the road. A super talented athlete but incredibly raw football player. I think he's too talented to not find a role, but I'm not assuming he'll easily transition to a true WR. I actually assume it will only partly work out. Grade 5.3

 

[manxman2601]

Parris Campbell – WR Ohio State

6'0 and 205lbs. He turns heads at the combine with his 4.31 speed, 40 VJ and 135 BJ 4.03 20YS. All top or near the top times. He's a rare athlete with a ton of upside clearly. He had a good year statically and so on paper he checks every single box you want. Decent size, speed and quickness and production. Let's see what the tape has to say.



While I watch Campbell the the name that kept popping into my mind was Cordarrelle Patterson. Some of it is an unfair comparison, but some of is very fair. Ohio State ran a fairly complex offense for college but Campbell wasn't really included in it much. He was mostly just a guy that they wanted to find way to put the ball in his hands. I can see why. He has speed and quickness to waste. But if you want him to be an NFL WR I see a lot of work that needs to be done.

He'll need to learn almost the entire route save for the few short routes he's been running and he'll need to learn how to use his hands and positioning to win. In all the tape I watched I don't think I saw him even attempt anything crafty. The play design did most of the work for getting him open. His hands are a bit suspect. He didn't need to catch too many hard passes and the ones he did often didn't look clean. He needs to learn how to place his hands better so he isn't catching the back end of the ball. He's a talent prospect but way more raw that I thought he would be considering how he's talked about as a first round pick. To me assuming you can teach him to play WR is the kind of hubris far too many coaches and GMs have. Usually it doesn't work that easily. I think he likely becomes a better WR than Patterson, but I foresee a number of similar bumps in the road. A super talented athlete but incredibly raw football player. I think he's too talented to not find a role, but I'm not assuming he'll easily transition to a true WR. I'm actually assume it will only partly work out. Grade 5.3

What about Percy Harvin as a comp?

I do think he’s the type of person that McDaniels could manufacture a nice number of touches for.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I just checked out the Michigan game. I assume your talking about his first interception? It was a nice play but personally i wasn't too impressed. When you really look at it the ball was massively under thrown and arguably he messed up earlier in the play and was lucky to recover due to an under thrown ball. I don't believe at all that he baited the QB. If anything this is more evidence of him not being good at defending vertical routes.

Don't get me wrong, it shows good speed and the return was great but I think this is more lucky than a clever read. At least that's the way I saw it.

As for the other pick I think that's an example of good things happening when he is near the LOS. He's very fast to react to things he facing. Admittedly any number of players could have made that Int but his jump after seeing the tipped pass was instant. A lot of other players would have failed to take it to the house. It was an interesting game to watch but I think I like my grade as is. It displayed his straight line speed well.

But it was zone coverage . . .

 

[Gator Mike]

EDIT: CGJ is what I hope Dawson turns into it. I can't help but think we may have jumped the gun a year early on a slot defender from Florida.

They're different players.

CGJ is more versatile. Dawson's a better cover guy in the slot, and I also think Dawson is tougher, and a better tackler.

 

[BobDigital]

But it was zone coverage . . .

3:04 is the replay and the more useful view.

I realize it was zone coverage, but seeing how the play developed I believe he's late in changing his responsibility. That''s the issue I'm talking about. To use the yards as a marker, IMO the latest he should waited to break from his first responsibility and help the CB to his left is the 30 yard line. Probably a few yards before.

Instead he is almost at the 20 by the time he breaks off and goes to help the other DB. To me this was way too late to react and increases the amount of time it takes to get there. Oh the bright side you can also see him reading the QB on the play, but he should have been going in that direction long before then.

Maybe someone will tell me I'm reading this play wrong, (and it's possible I am) but that's how I see it.

 

[BobDigital]

What about Percy Harvin as a comp?

I do think he’s the type of person that McDaniels could manufacture a nice number of touches for.

Sure that's a comp that works too. I find people often go to the most successful or notable comparison, which makes sense as it is more well known. The way I think of it is a lot of Percy Harvin type players have entered this league and there's only been one Percy Harvin.

To me that shows the bad odds of betting on this kind of player to reach that level. Could Campbell do it? Sure. He's more likely than many other players that fit that mold. Which is to say not particularly likely.

At the least he should be a weapon that you're happy to manufacture a few touches to a game. That will be somewhat valuable but not first or second round valuable. Not even close IMO. I only gave him the grade I did cause he MIGHT be another Percy Harvin.

 

[manxman2601]

Sure that is a comp that works too. I find people often go to the most successful or notable comparison, which makes sense as it is more well known. The way I think of it is a lot of Percy Harvin type players have entered this league and there's only been one Percy Harvin.

To me that shows the bad odds of betting on this kind of play to reach that level. Could Campbell do it? Sure. He's as likely as any of the other players that fit that mold. Which is to say not particularly likely.

At the least he should be a weapon that you're happy to manufacture a few touches to a game. That will be somewhat valuable but not first or second round valuable. Not even close IMO. I only gave him the grade I did cause he MIGHT be another Percy Harvin. He's probably more likely than a number of others.

I’m not sure about him myself, but here’s a question. Who would get the most touches, yards and TDs in 2019? Campbell or AJ Brown? I wouldn’t mind betting it would be Campbell because he’d be taking the ball nearer to the LoS than Brown and it would be easier to get him the ball. Brown might be the better WR but I wonder who might be the more effective Weapon. Note, I like Brown and think he’s worth consideration at 32.