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Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by BobDigital, Mar 19, 2019.

  1. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Drew Lock - QB Missouri

    At 6'4 and 225lb he he looks the part. He can be a good runner but chooses not to and does most of his damage from the pocket. A 4 year starter whose improved every season. His junior year was great as far as TD/Int ratio 44/13 with a 58% completions and nearly 4,000 yards. He 'only' had 28 TDs to 8 Ints this year but finally hit +60% of his passes at 62.9%. (Hitting 60% is a big deal for me when it comes to college QBs). We got to see him against some of the best competition in college. Alabama, George, Kentucky and Florida.

    What about the tape? Very hit and miss. First the good. When things go the way he expects them to and he's protected well he's very accurate. He throws the ball on time and fits it into tight spaces. He has enough pop in his arm make all the throws. He doesn't seem like a QB who will need a lot of help from his WRs at the next level as long as the core is competent. Doesn't have confidence issues and is ready to be the leader of your team. Can get the ball out accurately very quickly if it's the plan to do so.

    The bad is a pretty long list. His pocket movement is bad. He almost never moves in the pocket and when he does he ends up going backwards 99% of the time. He rarely slides to the sides and I only saw him climb the ladder one time on all the tape I watched and it could've been he was just throwing really deep. When in the pocket he's like a statue until he has to desperately move at the last second. He mechanics need work. He throws too much with his arm and off his back foot which kills his accuracy. When forced to ad lib he misses a lot. Too often wants to be a deep ball hero instead of dumping it off. When he (rarely) comes off his first read and decides to go to the check down it takes too long and is not usually that accurate even w/o pressure. The accuracy tends to fall if his first read isn't there. A lot of his balls get tipped and part of that comes down to his mechanics. Under pressure he makes bad choices.

    Overall there are a lot of down sides to Drew Lock. Probably too many for them to ever all be fixed enough to be a good starting QB in the NFL. That being said, he can be serviceable if in the right system with the right play caller who understands what he can do well. He may even tease people into believe he's good starter and a team has found 'their guy' for period of time. Until he comes back down to earth. He seems to really like his style and IDK if he is willing to fix it. Even if he is, there are things that can't be fixed. In a system which prioritizes getting the ball out fast, a lot of his problems are solved. They'll only show their ugly head when he tries to win games that matter. Grade 5.1
     
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  2. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Dwayne Haskins - QB Ohio State

    6'3 220lbs. Not the best runner, but I think that's being criticized so much it's now underrated. Not much experience with really only 1 year playing as a college QB. His stats were great. 50 TDs 8 Ints 4800 yards and 70% completion. By the way. Completion % is the #1 stat I look at in a college QB. I understand there are different systems and everything but in my experience very few QBs who have high completion percentages go on to be unsuccessful in the NFL. As a side note he had plenty of help from his teammates to reach those numbers. To say he has confidence is an understate. He comes off as a hard worker and good leader. Any team should feel comfortable making him the face of the franchise.

    Going by the tape there's a lot to like. He reads the field well. He's accurate but not as accurate at his % suggest. Has good anticipation of his reads and delivers the ball on time. The delivery looks pretty smooth but still room to improve. Knows how to move in the pocket. Still has to work on it. Goes through his progressions well and quickly, but it's hard to know for sure as he usually went to the designed play. Understands schemes and abuses mismatches repeatedly when he finds them. Isn't affected as much by pressure as most QBs. Willing to take a hit. Can throw fastballs and soft touches. Uses his eyes to manipulate the D well.

    The bad. Sometimes makes up his mind too early on a throw. His deep ball isn't that good. Wasn't forced to improvise much on the plays I saw. His throws on the move need work. Sometimes when he escapes the pocket he throws on the run when he has time and space to reset and establish himself. He needs to get out of that habit. He's never faced a defense more talented than his offense. The closest he came was against Washington in his final game. While it was a good game some cracks started to show. It makes you wonder a little.

    While no kid out of college is a finished product, this is one of the most polished QB from a pocket passing stand point I've seen in a few years. He has his issues he needs to work on, but the hype about him is absolutely justified. While not the best player in this draft, IMO he should be the number 1 pick as of now. Grade 7.2
     
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  3. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    K'Neal Harry – WR AZ State

    6'2 228 lbs. Harry is a fairly imposing target. He ran a 4.53 at the combine, a 28 bench, 38.5 VJ and 122 BJ. He didn't run any quickness drills at either his combine or pro day that I could find. He's had good production in school the last 2 seasons and he's clearly been the #1 WR on his team.. Each of the pass 2 years he reached around 1,100 yards so he's been consistent. The book is out on him, but I’ll try to add a few new takes if I can.

    The bad. Lets the ball into his body way too much. For a guy who didn't drop many balls I was amazed how bad this habit was. While he makes guys miss, it has more to do with how he sets them up than his quickness. I question if that will work with more experienced NFL players. Lack of true quickness and speed shows up on tape. He fails to get separation but also he fails to get space. By this I mean he tries to out muscle and out jump the defender, but he doesn't really use many tricks to gain space. I rarely see a subtle push or pull. He doesn't try to block out the defenders arms with his body the way he should. That should be a core part of his game as he doesn't have elite speed and it isn't there. His get off the line looks slow at times.

    The Good. Really good run blocker. Has great hands when he uses them and made some incredible catches. Very fluid in his actions, with body control you usually don't see in a bigger guy. Is already productive as is, but has a lot of little areas he can improve on that are fixable with coaching. While separation is better, it isn't always possible no matter how good you are. Sometimes you need a guy who can come down with a ball with a CB wrapped around him and few guys in the NFL have a knack for it to this level. Hand eye and speed of the game don't seem to be an issue. His minds moves fast on the field and you see that in his play.

    This is a love hate prospect. While he has areas to improve on I see the upside as limited. He can be more crafty, but in the end he's a guy who isn't overly slow or quick. Why throw to him when you can throw to someone whose open? I think his YAC in the NFL is going to go down. I don't see him able to fake out guys too often who knows they are faster and quicker than him. Rarely do guys who make a living with contested catches do well in the NFL. Anquan Bolden is the exception not he rule. I believe it has been shown if you want to really succeed with this style you need a ton of polish and a good first step. Clearly Harry lacks the former and the later is probably not good enough IMO. I don't see him as a #1 WR and I question if he's a guy you want as your 2nd option in most situations. Grade 5.4
     
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  4. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    He did run agility drills at his pro day. There's video proof. Gotta up your research game. :p

    Times were pretty solid for his size.




    Did you watch his game against Michigan State? He made Layne look silly on several reps with his quickness. I don't have any real concerns about how he wins in his routes. He's still really young and improving.
     
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  5. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    I couldn't find the times though. I checked a thread on reddit where someone's claims to clock it around 7.00 It's a good time for his size but I don't see the quickness show up on film though. I always search by times and if no times pop up I assume they didn't do it. Since no time was listed I didn't look deeply into it : P

    I didn't watch that game. I saw a few highlights with Michigan state but I couldn't find a game breakdown of his plays. I don't mean to say his quickness is horrible, just not good enough. I think he's twitchy but not quick if that makes sense. He's good as doing little moves to make guys thinks he's going way one before going another. It can make him look really quick at times but more of it is just the other guy getting frozen in place. At least that is what happened on the tape I saw. I'm not confident in his ability to do that at the NFL level without true legit quickness. I don't think he's not quick at all. Just I feel like he won't be quick enough. But it's all just best guessing in the end. Also just to be clear, just cause I don't him to be a #1 WR doesn't mean I don't like him at all. His ability to be a #2 has real potential.
     
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  6. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I timed it by hand twice and got 7.04 and 7.05. Someone on Twitter downloaded the video and tracked it frame by frame to get 6.89. That seems generous, but regardless, either one is fine at his size.

    I hear you about the way he makes people hesitate, but I'm not too concerned. Play him as a big slot, with occasional outside snaps, and I think he's a 1000 yard receiver year 1. He reminds me of juju.

    Can't wait for football season again. :)
     
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  7. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Jerry Tillery DT – Notre Dame

    Tillery had a good combine. He finished near the top in just about everything besides bench press. He's one of the top big athletes at the combine. At 6'6 295lbs he's a mountain. His statistical production has been good but not great the last 2 years.

    The good. Has multiple ways to win as a pass rusher. His speed and quickness shows up on film pretty constantly. Clearly he's one of the better athletes out there. Uses his length and long arms well to gain an advantage. Is a flexible pass rusher and can play all over the line. He did a lot of stuns and was able to win against interior and outside linemen. From what I saw he held up well vs the run mostly.

    The bad. In his rush to get up field sometimes he gets out of his lane. His bull rush can be devastating but also inconsistent. Perhaps his height works against him in some instances. If he doesn't win immediately it takes him longer to get there than you'd like in a top pick. Has no recorded passes defended in his career. Potentially lacks the skill set for some reason? While his run D is mostly good, at other times he gets bullied around (for a guy his size). The production he puts out hasn't lived up to his talent, and mixed with character questions I'm worried about his growth potential.

    In a class loaded with DT talent, a guy like Tillery who would usually be a media darling, but is not getting much press this year. When there is this much smoke about off field issues there is usually fire and that has to go into is grade. I think he'll have a very good career but there are a lot of little things adding up to make me question that and I don't think he is so special or his skill set it so rare that it transcends those red marks completely. I feel like he has too many question marks to warrant a coveted first round pick. Grade 6.4
     
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  8. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Will Grier – QB WV

    At 6'2 and 217lbs. He has 2 years starting data to look at and the stats are fairly impressive. He should good steady improvement these two years as a JR he went 34 TD 12 Int 3490 yards 64.4%. As a Senior 37 TD 8 Int 3864 67%. He always had good talent around him but actually had more in 2017 than 2018 which is a good as he took a step up statistically. In neither of his years starting did he face a team in the top 4 but he faced a number of top 25 teams. Against the best teams he faced he didn't miss a beat.

    The good. Tends to deliver the ball on time. Is able to come off his first read if it isn't open. An accurate passer. To this point he hasn't found a level he can't be successful at. Still shows signs of growth as a passer and hasn't plateaued. Confident and a good teammate. Played in a system not unsimilar from some NFL systems. Can make all the throws but doesn't have a canon. Shows both good touch and zip. Not many of his balls get tipped at the line. Keeps bad decisions mostly low. Shows some pocket movement and awareness. Is very accurate when there's no pressure.

    The bad. Pocket movement and awareness isn't good enough yet. Has never had to be a QB on a team with average talent. Made the same mistake in the same half against the same D. May not learn from mistakes within a game and might trust his pre-snap read too much. Rarely attacks the short and intermediate middle of the field from what I saw. Can he? When things break down his first thought is to run. Sometimes not willing to give up on a play and takes a bad sack. Maybe the worst runner among the top QBs.

    He seems like the kind of player who can execute his system well, but when pressure gets to him and he gets happy feet. Not a fan of that. He probably needs to sit for a year or at least most of a year. Sadly this is something that can't be completely coached up and he'll just make the leap or he won't. Overall he still has enough tools to be a starter in the NFL and the upside (considering what he does well) is pretty big. Grade 5.8
     
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  9. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Byron Murphy – CB Washington

    At 5'11 and 190lbs he's smaller than ideal. His combine was so-so to bad. A 4.55 40, with a below average VJ and BJ for a top prospect. He didn't do the quickness drills at the combine and I couldn't find the pro day numbers and that gives me concerns about his ability in those areas at the next level. Let's move to the tape.

    While Murphy is thought by some as a CB who can play whatever and wherever you want I'm not so sure. He make some big time plays in zone defense but I also noticed a number of mistakes, most of which he didn't pay for due to the level of play. This will need to be cleaned up.

    As a man corner it's hard to tell how good he is yet. Mostly the WRs ran basic vertical routes against him. When they did break it to the inside sharply a cushion often appeared that could've been taken advantage of IMO. On the rare occasions he lets a WR get over the top of him he can't recover. The few times I saw it happen the distance only increased. Luckily it happened deep enough down field that not much came of it.

    While I have all reservations about him as a man CB his success and knack for the position is hard to ignore. He's good as using his body and hands to keep a WR from getting away and has a good gauge of distance, so that he rarely finds himself out of position. Gis run D is pretty crap. He got off 1 WR block in all the tape I watched. While physical limitations sometimes showed up on tape, he knows how to play football. I think he translates pretty quickly as a CB #2 and probably a #1 before long; but I don't see him having the physical tools to be a premier CB. Grade 6.6
     
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  10. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Josh Oliver – TE S.J. State

    Oliver has good size at 6'5 and 249lbs. I'll say up front that I couldn't find much tape on him, so keep that in mind with this short breakdown. Oliver had a good combine. His 40, bench, VJ were all near the top. His BJ, 3CT and 60YS were average. His 20YS was one of the worst. As far as his stats he produced well on a very bad team and had a huge jump with his senior year production. He was basically tied for the top target on his team with 709 yards 56 catches and 4TDs.

    The Good. Oliver has nice straight line speed. His hands are good and his catch radius is big. He routinely made catches behind and above his body. I didn't see him make any catches below his body on the limited take a watch. As a blocker he is okay. Better than most Tes who come out. Was able to make a number of catches through contact. Catches with his hands and not his body.

    The Bad. He doesn't get much YAC. Goes down easier than he should. Has bad balance. After a hard catch he always ends up on the ground. His quickness is very questionable. Takes bad blocking angles in space often. Besides his vertical his other routes don't look NFL level too often. Not a single play he made popped out to me on his highlights to make me think his ceiling was anything but mediocre.

    A good all around TE who does a number of things well, but isn't special. A player that will run the routes and make nice catches when open and not get much done after. I see a lot of things you'd want in a TE #2 but I don't see a TE #1. Grade 4.8
     
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  11. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Jeffery Simmons - DT Miss State

    6'4 and 300lbs. As we all know an injury cost him the chance to do any combine drills or even play early, if at all this year. It's questionable what his impact will be when and if he comes back year 1. Year 2 should be fine. There's also the incident where he hit a woman repeatedly in March of 2016 (at age 18). The double teams he faced hurt his stats.



    I want to bring up a few interesting things I saw on tape here.

    3:01 – A really nice pressure. Notice the hands. The Center tries to get a hand to his body to slow him down, but Simmons ain't having it. It was a little half hearted by the center but still a nice play. The guard tries to get hands on him but is fought off. He goes backwards to gain space to reestablish but Simmons gets low and to the outside of his body. From then on it is just brute force to finish.

    3:17 – Fast hands and fast power. The center is looking around with no clue what just happened.

    3:25 – In case you thought the center was just bad. Did the exact same thing to this guard.

    6:18 – During this play you just feel the frustration the Alabama line has. He's been doubled teamed and beating 1 on 1s all day. They decide just to go for a cut block cause they don't know how else to stop him. He easily avoids it, pushing the guy down and runs towards the ball. Not the first cut block in this game he avoided.

    6:26 – This is the kind of play I love. Instead of just going up the field and taking himself out of the play like every other defensive lineman he realizes what is happening and looks to stop it. Smart.

    8:10 – Just watch from here on. It's all good to great.

    Simmons is one of those prospects it's hard to find something negative about on the field. Run defense, pass rush, technique and football IQ. He rarely makes a mistake and more often then not makes a play or gets double teamed. The only real downside about him is his off the field questions. Since that assault situation he's kept his nose clean and I believe everyone is entitled to one mistake when young. I don't think he has the upside of Ed Oliver or the polish of Williams, but he's clearly is a top level prospect. Grade 7.9
     
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  12. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Pro Bowl Player

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    a 7.9 grade for Simmons? That's an extremely high grade that suggests you believe he will be an All-pro at the NFL level and should be a top 10 overall pick.

    Meanwhile PFW only gives him a grade of 6.4. And most mocks I see have Simmons missing the first round or barely cracking the bottom of the 1st. What are you seeing that the other draftniks are missing?

    Quick question -- If the Pats took Simmons at #32 do you believe he would help improve the Pats 27th worst run defense ranking of 4.9 yards given up per carry?
     
  13. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    IDK if I believe he will be an all pro ever. DT is just such a stacked position right now that's it's hard to say. I do think he will make multiple pro bowls.

    I don't think I'm seeing anything different from anyone else. It's all about the injury and off the field issues. This is a little like Myles Jack all over again. A well known top talent who will fall to the bottom or out of round 1 cause of his issues not related to on field performance. Most draft sources I found have said he'd be a slam dunk for a top 10 pick if not for his health that incident he had.

    He'd help improve a lot of things. Just maybe not this year.
     
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  14. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    AJ Brown – WR Ole Miss

    6'1 and 230lbs. Brown had an okay but not great combine. He finished well enough with his 40, VJ and BJ but didn't clearly win any events. At his pro day his 3CT was clocked at 6.89 which would have been one of the best. As far as stats he produced at a very high level 2 years in a row. He got over 1200 yards each year with 2 different QBs (mostly). He did well no matter who he faced, but was pretty much shut down by Alabama 2 years in a row. Which is slightly worrying.



    While I don't usually use highlight tape to make my points there are certain things here which stick out.

    0:08 – Remember when Brandon Cooks got leveled by the Jags trnning around like a chicken with his head cut off? Now look at Brown. Very fluid, no panic and he seems to know where everyone is. Not only that, after he makes his great little move to gain space he tells the WR where he wants him to go. This to me is a sure sign the game has already slowed down.

    1:34 – This is better to watch on the 2nd angle. An NFL WR better know how to bend the rules and this is a perfect example of a push off that'll never get called. It's low and the arms don't fully extend. Not only that, it's perfectly timed. You see the defender throwing a fit to the ref after the play but there's no chance it was ever going to get called.

    1:48 – Again we talk about the fast mind that makes his fast body so dangerous. At first this looks almost like a trip, but in reality he was about to turn left. He saw the defender over his shoulder and then instantly turned right. That balance and ability to accelerate from such awkward start is impressive.

    The good. Very quick for 230lbs (and in general). A good run blocker. Solid hands, Knows and routinely does the little tricks a WR has to. Runs routes all over the field and has experience as a slot but also has the look of an outside WR. Superb balance. Has the strength to make tough catches and hold on through big hits. Legit shake and bake.

    The bad. Not the run blocker he should be going by his size. Is late to preform jail break routes when his route is over. Sometimes plays with too much attitude. Can have trouble vs man and is usually better against zone.

    Brown may not have the upside to be an all pro, but his basement is insanely high. More than any other WR in this class he will come in instantly and impact week 1. I don't know if any other WR can say that right now. I see Brown as the type of guy who never (or only once) gets to a pro bowl as he'll do most of his damage from the slot, but he'll put up 1,000 yard seasons year in year out. Grade 7.1
     
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  15. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Keep up the great work
     
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  16. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thanks Bob, I look forward to every new entry in this thread! On Green, I can't get past the fact that his name sounds like a fake NFL WR character. His big rival would be Julio Johnson.

    On Simmons, you have to trust the team to do its due diligence on his character. Yes, he was young; yes people deserve second chances. But realistically, this is a tough time for the Patriots to draft any player with an indelible video like that out there.
     
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  17. captain stone

    captain stone Pro Bowl Player

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    I've seen sites that rank Simmons within the top half of the 1st round, a place he almost ass-uredly would've been ranked everywhere else were it not for the off-field incident and for his ACL tear.
    It is for those two reasons, however, that I would not take him at 32. I want my first-rounder to be a Week 1 contributor and the best remaining talent at a position of immediate need: DE, WR, TE.
    If forced to choose a DT there, I would take Dexter Lawrence (if available) ahead of Simmons too.
     
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  18. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm mostly with you. It's easy to envision a scenario where Simmons is far and away the biggest talent available at #32, but I'd still hesitate to pull the trigger. I'm not so sold on Lawrence, though, and the TE board is going to look weird at that point....

    Aw, who are we kidding. They're trading up for Zach Allen.
     
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  19. cstjohn17

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    My money is on Saquan Hampton, S, Rutgers followed by someone else I haven't heard of...
     
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  20. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    He was routinely projected to go in the top 5 or 10 before he tore his ACL a couple months ago. I think he's a better football player and more scheme diverse currently than Oliver, although I wouldn't be surprised if Oliver has the better overall career. 32 would be a steal for his talent, given that he recovers from the injury, but he's not going to contribute year one.

    That said, how many snaps are actually available on defense for a rookie? We all want at least one, and maybe two of each, DT and DE drafted early, but when I look over the depth chart I have to wonder who we're going to get who's ready to step in day one and play significant snaps. I'm not saying that don't need the upgrade, but I'm not sure who is available where we pick who shows a clear chance of providing that upgrade. That's why I keep coming back to Dexter Lawrence and Zach Allen, because I don't see anyone else in range who also has starting level skills -- and I say that as a fan of a lot of the mid-round DL and EDGE players, but they all need seasoning.

    So, when I consider those factors, I've come around to OL / TE / WR early, since I think they have a clearer path to play or fill specific depth chart roles, such as swing tackle or a Thuney replacement if he gets a big contract in FA, which isn't out of the question for ex-Patriot OL. Then the prospect of taking Simmons for next year vs an OL for next year suddenly moves the needle in his favor quite heavily. Who knows what will happen, but if we took him at 32 we'd still have a cost-controlled 5th year, so we could still get 4 cheap years of play from a top-ten talent DL. That sounds pretty good to me.
     
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