maineman209
Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
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Here's the cap for the full league NFL 2019 Salary Cap Tracker
I just don't see why Trey would sign with the Pats at below market rate when there's all these teams out there with so much money to spend.
There certainly are some dazzlingly large numbers at the top of that list.
However, unless and until we dissect each of those teams' rosters, in-house FA situations, team needs, etc. - to the level of detail that Miguel does with the Pats' roster and cap - then we don't really know which teams will actually be in the market for Flowers' services or how much they might be willing to offer, or even if Flowers fits their defensive scheme.
The other thing is that "market rate" is still relatively undefined for 2019. Is it the $17.1M Franchise Tag that Ansah and Lawrence were paid this season? Is it Chandler Jones' $16.5M AAV, Ingram's $16.0M, or the $15.0M that Calis Campbell and JPP are getting? Or is it somewhere between Cam Jordan's $11.0M and Hunter's $14.4M?
Cap space wise, would it be reasonable for the Pat to offer Flowers a Gilmore-level contract ($13.0M AAV), if it's back-loaded to keep Flowers' 2019 cap hit around $5.5M-$6.0M? A Gilmore-level contract would put Flowers' AAV just outside the top-10 for 4-3 DEs.
Ultimately, it's Flowers' decision, but I'm not at all certain that the gap between what Flowers may be offered elsewhere and what the Pats may be reasonably able to afford is quite as large as most people seems to assume that it will be.
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There's one other wild-*** consideration.
How many offenses that the Pats are likely to be playing over the next few seasons will be transitioning to a mobile-QB/RPO/run-heavy base?
The Bills, Ravens and Chiefs already seem to be there, and the Pats will likely have all three of them on their 2019 schedule. That's four games, 25%, in which they'll need to defend that type of offense. A QB change may be coming for the 'Fins, too (potentially another two games in 2019). Who knows what other AFC teams may be joining them? Could the Pats end up needing to defend against that type of offense in half (or more) of their regular-season games by 2020?
As more teams have dumped their 3-4 defenses for a 4-3 style, competent 4-3 DEs (and DTs) have been in increasingly high demand recently, thus making them more difficult/expensive to acquire and retain. But 3-4 personnel may be more plentiful now, and somewhat less expensive. Many people seem to believe that 3-4 type schemes are inherently better for run-stopping and edge contain. What if BB intends to respond to thi possible trend in NFL offenses by transitioning back to something closer to a classic 3-4? What if he already started down that path, personnel-wise in 2017? If that's the case, how much future value would Flowers have for the Pats? Can he play something like the McGinest "elephant" role in a 3-4?
I'm not predicting this will happen, I'm just asking the questions.