What’s the cap situation moving forward?

[RayClay]

They will have a lot more than $10M.

Gronk & Allen alone would be $17.4M if cut. Clayborne moves it up to $21.4M and there's lots of restructures (Hightower down from $10+ or he'll be cut to add another $5.375 saved). They're the big hitters but we can save $25M without even blinking in terms of production on the field this year.

With OtC starting point of around $26M we'll easily be able to be $50M under.

Do you play TE?

 

[mcmurtry86]

It’s easy to have cap room by dumping top players. But then you need to replace them and replacing gronk and McCourty will probably cost more than they cost.

There’s no TE out there that would be acquired with a 10M price tag, which is the savings from cutting Gronk. There are very few guys making that money and none are realistic targets. So any starting TE is almost certainly going to save money. As for production, given Gronk’s current mediocrity, finding a suitable and cheaper replacement for his expected 2019 level of production shouldn’t be too difficult

McCourty is much less clear. He’s not worth the 9.5M in cap space they could clear up but replacing him is much more difficult than Gronk. While he’s declining, he’s still a good player at a tough position to find good players at.

Problem being is the team needs many new pieces at expensive spots - LT, two DT, multiple WR and a replacement for Flowers or retaining him. With only 20M to utilize, just treading water (not accounting for further decline) seems impossible without cutting some of these big contracts and reallocating the funds to the most critical positions.

 

[mcmurtry86]

The Patriots are going to have a bunch of holes because they have 20 free agents
and not enough cap space to re-sign many of them. They have 6 draft picks in the first
three rounds which could help fill several holes provided Belichick actually uses the picks.

Chances of a draft pick filling an important hole are very slim. Usually Belichick will bring in bargain bin vets and plug them in as starters while the high value rookies earn their playing time. He very rarely goes into the draft with gaping holes in his starting lineup so we shouldn’t expect any veteran departures to be replaced by rookies. Unfortunately, there are very few internal options due to the complete lack of useful young (and cheap) talent outside of CB. So you’ll have waiver wire quality guys and discount free agents picked up to replace Hogan, both DT, Gronk etc

 

[Jimke]

Chances of a draft pick filling an important hole are very slim. Usually Belichick will bring in bargain bin vets and plug them in as starters while the high value rookies earn their playing time. He very rarely goes into the draft with gaping holes in his starting lineup so we shouldn’t expect any veteran departures to be replaced by rookies. Unfortunately, there are very few internal options due to the complete lack of useful young (and cheap) talent outside of CB. So you’ll have waiver wire quality guys and discount free agents picked up to replace Hogan, both DT, Gronk etc

Before you can have high value rookies earn their playing time, Belichick has to stop trading
these picks away.

 

[Hyped]

The Patriots are going to have a bunch of holes because they have 20 free agents
and not enough cap space to re-sign many of them. They have 6 draft picks in the first
three rounds which could help fill several holes provided Belichick actually uses the picks.

That would not be why they would have holes, IMO. It is the salary cap limiting the ability to sign talent at all positions. All of those FA's will be replaced by resigning some guys, signing some mid-level FA's, the draft, undrafted FA's, and/or trades.

The thing is to *try* to keep elite talent on your roster for as cheap as possible...which is hard. It is eaiser for teams to do so with elite talent still on their rookie deals. If the braintrust can hit home runs in the draft or sign a surprise UFA or two (i.e. Butler or JC Jackson)...our cap situation will look a whole lotta better.

 

[stinkypete]

I see fewer cuts than predicted here.

The 70% version of Gronk on the field today is still a relative bargain at $9. Consider that Chicago's signing of Trey Burton at $8 million per is considered a success, and that Gronk's stats are similar to Burton's while providing superior blocking. The free agent class at TE is headlined by Jared Cook, Luke Wilson, and the ghosts of Tyler Eiffert and Antonio Gates. The only path to upgrading the position is through the draft, and the TE draft class is so-so. Cutting Gronk is not a path to improving the team.

McCourty is a similar scenario. Though there is superior talent in the free agent market in Laarcus Joyner, he would be an even higher cap charge. Earl Thomas is no sure thing and likely to land in Dallas. McCourty will play out his deal, and will be replaced in 2020.

Cannon is still a steal at his position.

 

[Miguel]

Patriots' 2019 salary cap preview (Part I) - Breaking down future cap commitments | Boston Sports Journal

Part I of my salary cap preview is up.

 

[maineman209]

Before you can have high value rookies earn their playing time, Belichick has to stop trading
these picks away.

And/or, the rookies need to stop getting injured before they can play.

As far as trading picks goes, BB got ..
- JMAC for a 2018 6th rounder
- Shelton and Patterson for a 2019 3rd-rounder (+ a 6th back from the Raiders)
- Gordon for a 2019 5th-rounder

Between the draft maneuvering BB did in the 2018 draft and the comp picks for the free agents he let go, it appears that the Pats will have 12 or 13 picks next April, including 6 in the first 100 or so.

Meanhwile, from the 2017 draft, there's apparently still a chance that Rivers does something. And from the 2018 draft, there's Bentley, Dawson, Wynn, and possibly Izzo, or even Berrios, who could yet be "hits" for next season.

BTW - Does anyone else find it ironic that the one 2018 draftee who actually had an injury is still playing and doing well?

 

[203Pat]

For years it felt like we had guys in waiting from Woodhead to Vereen, Vereen to White, Troy to Wes to Edelman and always rotating in new guys into the front 7. Now we seem to be barebones in a ton of spots. I know I sound like a broken record but we cannot blow another draft and free agency.

 

[RobertWeathers]

For years it felt like we had guys in waiting from Woodhead to Vereen, Vereen to White, Troy to Wes to Edelman and always rotating in new guys into the front 7. Now we seem to be barebones in a ton of spots. I know I sound like a broken record but we cannot blow another draft and free agency.

Why do fans assume every position of depth was built through the draft?

 

[HailHydra]

For years it felt like we had guys in waiting from Woodhead to Vereen, Vereen to White, Troy to Wes to Edelman and always rotating in new guys into the front 7. Now we seem to be barebones in a ton of spots. I know I sound like a broken record but we cannot blow another draft and free agency.

We didn't really know Edelman was the next big thing. For all we know, someone like Cody Hollister or Riley McCarron could be top targets in a few years

 

[203Pat]

Why do fans assume every position of depth was built through the draft?

Most good teams build depth through the draft. Aside from the first couple years of the BB era we did too till we bottomed our in the last few drafts.

 

[mgteich]

Most good teams build depth through the draft. Aside from the first couple years of the BB era we did too till we bottomed our in the last few drafts.

so, we can't draft and have had the best franchise and record in the NFL without good draft picks?

 

[maineman209]

We didn't really know Edelman was the next big thing. For all we know, someone like Cody Hollister or Riley McCarron could be top targets in a few years

When Welker was hurt in the final regular season game of 2009, rookie Edelman more or less took his spot for the WC game against the Ravens. Although the Pats got blown out, Edelman responded with 6/8 receiving for 44 yds and the Pats' only two TDs.

It took another 4 years to take over for Welker permanently, but, in that game, there was glimmer of what Edelman might become.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Most good teams build depth through the draft. Aside from the first couple years of the BB era we did too till we bottomed our in the last few drafts.

No. Good teams acquire players by any means necessary. Go look at how the Saints acquired their players. I think youll be surprised.

At any rate our disagreement is I don't think they've bottomed out. They've had productive drafts.

Fans seem to forget they always pick last and had 2 first rounders taken away

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Hopefully we can get a receiver that knows what he’s doing and not on drugs

Or...maybe..."Hopefully we can get a receiver who contributes half as much as Gordon did (=not just Receiving Yards, but the problems he created for opponents' game planning) before Josh's demons caught up with him."

 

[ScottishPatriots]

Here's the cap for the full league NFL 2019 Salary Cap Tracker

I just don't see why Trey would sign with the Pats at below market rate when there's all these teams out there with so much money to spend.

 

[mosslost]

Three moves that are more or less no brainer get the team to $50 million in cap space. Plenty for Flowers (if they choose to go that route) & re-signings as well as 1-2 impactful additions before the draft:

• Cut Rob Gronkowski - $10 million savings. (self explanatory if he doesn’t retire)

• Cut/Pay CutDwayne Allen - $7.4 million savings. If the team seeks another restructure, that works too. However, considering he is a zero in the receiving game the team could use a 6th OL in his role. Seattle’s run game has been great with that strategy.

• Cut/Pay Cut Devin McCourty - $9.5 million savings. This move is nothing personal. McCourty is still a pretty good safety. However, the rule changes have neutered the position as well the market. While I’m fine with Harmon/Chung/another behind elite cornerback play & an improved front seven, the team could sign another decent starting safety for $2-3 million a year. They could also re-sign/restructure soon to be 32 year old McCourty for much less.

Additional moves include Hightower, Clayborn & Slater. After moves/restructures that won’t impact the 2019 team on the field in a substantial way the cap situation should be pretty good.

>>Cut Rob Gronkowski - $10 million savings. (self explanatory if he doesn’t retire)

I bet Gronk has a nice run in the playoffs.

 

[mosslost]

Just Pound the Rock!

 

[jah]

When Welker was hurt in the final regular season game of 2009, rookie Edelman more or less took his spot for the WC game against the Ravens. Although the Pats got blown out, Edelman responded with 6/8 receiving for 44 yds and the Pats' only two TDs.

It took another 4 years to take over for Welker permanently, but, in that game, there was glimmer of what Edelman might become.

Yep. Edelman coming out of nowhere is a myth. He flashed early and often despite injuries and early lack of playing time.