We're onto Buffalo....

[Brewskies]

Gronk off the injury list. Not sure about Patterson.

Go Pats

 

[ashley]

Patterson was removed as well.

Gronk off the injury list. Not sure about Patterson.

Go Pats

 

[JMC00]

Hard to believe Pats are -13.5,

He thinks it's hard to believe why the Pats are 13.5 favorites

Well let me explain to you why -13.5 is the line

-Pats beat the Bills in Buffalo by 19 points this season

-Pats have won 4 of 6 at home this year by at least 14 points

-Pats have won 3 out of their last 4 at home by 14 on the money
-Colts 38-24
-Packers 31-17
-Vikings 24-10

-Pats in their 6 home wins have won on average bu 13.8 points

- In the last 7 games in which Brady has played a full game against the Bills, Pats have won by an average of 15 points

-In their 5 road losses this season the Bills have lost by an average of 15.4 points. Which includes a 44 point loss to the Ravens, a 22 point loss to the Packers and a 32 point loss to the Colts.




Either your mental capacity for betting lines isn't up to snuff or this was an absolute weak ass ****post attempt.

 

[Joker]

UFOMBA TIME!

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I took Bills at 13.5....that A LOT for a Pats team that is just..meh

Any team in the NFL getting 2 TD right off the bat...i usually take that...it backfires yeah but man..a lot

 

[DaBruinz]

UFOMBA TIME!

Glad to see that I'm not the only one excited about him being promoted. Hope we see him dressed and Roberts inactive.

Wouldn't mind seeing Dawson get some time as well, but he's buried currently..

 

[luuked]

Hope we see him dressed and Roberts inactive.

Despite his shortcomings in coverage and inconsistency at the run he is a key cog of the defense looking at the snap counts and then tackle & co stats. I would be shocked if anything about Roberts status would change this season.

Offseason is a different story.. but I don't think there is an alternative to ride it out with him starting this year.

 

[italian pat patriot]

THE SAVIOR OF THE FATHERLAND:
U F O M B A

 

[supafly]

Despite his shortcomings in coverage and inconsistency at the run he is a key cog of the defense looking at the snap counts and then tackle & co stats. I would be shocked if anything about Roberts status would change this season.

Offseason is a different story.. but I don't think there is an alternative to ride it out with him starting this year.

I’m not even convinced that he’ll be gone next year. I think he’s improved his game and everyone is pretty much on the same page regarding his limitations and responsibilities. I would hope that our talent improves enough to where he’s not getting the bulk of the reps, but we could do worse in terms of rotational and depth options.

As far as this year goes, Humbar and Grigsby seem to be a step down in my opinion. Maybe things improve enough in ‘19 to where we see Bentley take over and add a nice piece or two via the draft/FA, and that limits Roberts’ exposure.

 

[luuked]

I’m not even convinced that he’ll be gone next year. I think he’s improved his game and everyone is pretty much on the same page regarding his limitations and responsibilities. I would hope that our talent improves enough to where he’s not getting the bulk of the reps, but we could do worse in terms of rotational and depth options.

I have been saying this for 2 years now but my main issue with him is not even his coverage ability which I agree he got better in.

But the number of bad reads and wrong angles he takes against the run is what makes him so frustrating to watch. I'd much rather have a player that consistently gives up a few yards than the one who sometimes makes a play in the backfield while other times gets blocked out of his lane (or gets his ankle broken by a sharp cut) and gives up a 20y+ run (or even more like with Bolden against Miami).

I think Bentley will take his spot on depth chart either relegating Roberts to backup status or if someone else emerges (drafted LB, UDFA, FA..) he might be gone.

 

[maineman209]

Despite his shortcomings in coverage and inconsistency at the run he is a key cog of the defense looking at the snap counts and then tackle & co stats. I would be shocked if anything about Roberts status would change this season.

Offseason is a different story.. but I don't think there is an alternative to ride it out with him starting this year.

FWIW ...

For the first three games, when Bentley was healthy, LB snap distributions were:

Wk-1
Bentley - 69% (started)
Hightower - 68%
Van Noy - 66%
Roberts - 27%

Wk-2
Bentley - 42%
Hightower - 65%
Van Noy - 90%
Roberts - 23%

Wk-3
Bentley - 78% (started)
Hightower - 85%
Van Noy - 88%
Roberts - 49%
(Chung missed the 2nd half of wk-3 and Roberts filled in)

- Van Noy and Hightower have started every game this season.
- Van Noy has averaged 90% of the D-snaps. HT has averaged 78%.
- Roberts has started 10 games. He's averaged 50% of the D-snaps since wk-3, with the exception of last week (when he was injured and played only 8 snaps), and in wk-9 (26%) when the Pats were playing a lot of dime against Rodgers.

It seems to me that, considering how much Roberts has been contributing this season so far, he'd be worth keeping as the #4 LB in 2019, especially considering that his cap hit will be only $745k.

 

[maineman209]

I’m not even convinced that he’ll be gone next year. I think he’s improved his game and everyone is pretty much on the same page regarding his limitations and responsibilities. I would hope that our talent improves enough to where he’s not getting the bulk of the reps, but we could do worse in terms of rotational and depth options.

As far as this year goes, Humbar and Grigsby seem to be a step down in my opinion. Maybe things improve enough in ‘19 to where we see Bentley take over and add a nice piece or two via the draft/FA, and that limits Roberts’ exposure.

Grigsby was waived by the Pats on 11/13, and signed to the DET PS on 11/17. He was promoted to the DET active roster on 11/27.

McClellan, who replaced Grissom on 11/6, and Humber, who replaced Grigsby, were both signed exclusively to bolster ST (which appears to have worked). Both McClellan and Humber have been averaging over 17 ST snaps per game, while combining for 3 D-snaps total.

 

[maineman209]

I have been saying this for 2 years now but my main issue with him is not even his coverage ability which I agree he got better in.

But the number of bad reads and wrong angles he takes against the run is what makes him so frustrating to watch. I'd much rather have a player that consistently gives up a few yards than the one who sometimes makes a play in the backfield while other times gets blocked out of his lane (or gets his ankle broken by a sharp cut) and gives up a 20y+ run (or even more like with Bolden against Miami).

I think Bentley will take his spot on depth chart either relegating Roberts to backup status or if someone else emerges (drafted LB, UDFA, FA..) he might be gone.

LB production by snap%, descending order:

2018 tackling
Van Noy = 90% D-snaps/gm .. 10.3% tkl/snap .. 5 TFL
Hightower = 78% D-snaps/gm .. 6.4% tkl/snap .. 3 TFL
Bentley* = 63% D-snaps/gm .. 9.4% tkl/snap .. 1 TFL
Roberts = 50% D-snaps/gm .. 14.4% tkl/snap .. 6 TFL

2018 coverage
Van Noy = 2.5% tgts/snap .. 71% catch rate .. 8.4 ypc .. 1 INT
Hightower = 2.5% tgts/snap .. 59% catch rate .. 7.2 ypc .. 1 INT
Bentley* = 2.9% tgts/snap .. 50% catch rate .. 8.0 ypc .. 1 INT
Roberts = 5.1% tgts/snap .. 75% catch rate .. 8.4 ypc .. 4 PBU

2018 pressure
Van Noy = 3.5 sacks .. 9 QBH .. 19 pressures .. held once
Hightower = 1 sack .. 4 QBH .. 13 pressures .. held once
Bentley* = .. 0 sacks 1 QBH .. 1 pressure
Roberts = 1 sack .. 2 QBH .. 2 pressures .. held twice

2019 age & cap hit
Van Noy = 28 .. $5.92M
Hightower = 29 .. $10.38M
Bentley = 23 .. $646k
Roberts = 25 .. $745k

* only three games for Bentley

Personally, I'd consider trading Hightower, extending Van Noy, keeping Bentley and Roberts, and drafting (FA signing) a couple new, younger LBs.

 

[turkeyneck]

Roberts is so quick into the wrong gap on run plays it has to be matter of him guessing rather than reading. He'd help himself a lot by waiting a half sec before committing. It's so damned frustrating seeing him launch into one side of the line only to have the runner blast through on the other side and go for 10, 20, or 30 yds.

 

[RobertWeathers]

LB production by snap%, descending order:

2018 tackling
Van Noy = 90% D-snaps/gm .. 10.3% tkl/snap .. 5 TFL
Hightower = 78% D-snaps/gm .. 6.4% tkl/snap .. 3 TFL
Bentley* = 63% D-snaps/gm .. 9.4% tkl/snap .. 1 TFL
Roberts = 50% D-snaps/gm .. 14.4% tkl/snap .. 6 TFL

2018 coverage
Van Noy = 2.5% tgts/snap .. 71% catch rate .. 8.4 ypc .. 1 INT
Hightower = 2.5% tgts/snap .. 59% catch rate .. 7.2 ypc .. 1 INT
Bentley* = 2.9% tgts/snap .. 50% catch rate .. 8.0 ypc .. 1 INT
Roberts = 5.1% tgts/snap .. 75% catch rate .. 8.4 ypc .. 4 PBU

2018 pressure
Van Noy = 3.5 sacks .. 9 QBH .. 19 pressures .. held once
Hightower = 1 sack .. 4 QBH .. 13 pressures .. held once
Bentley* = .. 0 sacks 1 QBH .. 1 pressure
Roberts = 1 sack .. 2 QBH .. 2 pressures .. held twice

2019 age & cap hit
Van Noy = 28 .. $5.92M
Hightower = 29 .. $10.38M
Bentley = 23 .. $646k
Roberts = 25 .. $745k

* only three games for Bentley

Personally, I'd consider trading Hightower, extending Van Noy, keeping Bentley and Roberts, and drafting (FA signing) a couple new, younger LBs.

VN has a year left. Not sure they want to extend him too far out

 

[Triumph]

Pats are the NFLs only undefeated team at home.

Miami can still win the division winning out and NE dropping both games.

Buffalo brings the NFLs 3rd best defense and one of the worst 3rd down offenses.

 

[Triumph]

Roberts is so quick into the wrong gap on run plays it has to be matter of him guessing rather than reading. He'd help himself a lot by waiting a half sec before committing. It's so damned frustrating seeing him launch into one side of the line only to have the runner blast through on the other side and go for 10, 20, or 30 yds.

Ninko said that he used to fake out the rusher by leading his head towards one gap tricking the runner into the other gap where Ninko wanted him to go.

 

[maineman209]

VN has a year left. Not sure they want to extend him too far out

I meant, extend him next spring, when he starts his contract year. I'd let Roberts play out his 2019 contract year, though, and see where things stand in spring 2020.

 

[TomPatriot]

UFOMBA TIME!

UFO MBA.

Martian is all business.

 

[captain stone]

It seems to me that, considering how much Roberts has been contributing this season so far, he'd be worth keeping as the #4 LB in 2019...

Personally, I'd consider trading Hightower, extending Van Noy, keeping Bentley and Roberts, and drafting (FA signing) a couple new, younger LBs.

Roberts doesn't deserve to be even a #4 LB here; and because he doesn't play STs he's less than useless as a #5/6 too.