Comments:
1.) There is A LOT of football left to be played. 32 teams are going to play 64 more games THEN 12 teams are going to play 11 games before all is decided. 75 games left.
2.) Right now, I think the top FIVE teams are: Saints, Chargers, Chiefs, Rams, and maybe the Bears?
3.) The Saints got smoked in Dallas only 20 days ago and they are largely one dimensional in the passing game. Brees has been in a mini-slump. Lock down Michael Thomas...spy Kamara and you can slow these guys down and force Payton to become creative. They are impossible to beat in the Superdome...but the Patriots aren't seeing them in the Superdome no matter what happens.
4.) The Chargers look scary. However, they have not yet won the AFC West and might have to play on the road...and even at home they do not have real home field advantage. They can hear opposing fans from the nose bleed seats...if you can call those seats nose bleeds! Also, they are largely inexperienced...only Rivers, Allen, Gates, Ingram, and Liuget have play-off experience and they have not been in the playoffs since January of 2014. If the Chargers end up the #5 seed...they are highly likely to play the Chiefs in the divisional round. The Patriots just need to win 2 games to at least avoid the Chargers/Chiefs on wild card weekend should the Pats end up the #4 seed (only half a game up).
5.) The Chiefs....scary offense, but their defense is as bad as ours. Eric Berry will help a lot, but the Chiefs aren't blowing out teams anymore on offense. They are 2-2 the last 4 weeks...lost by 3, won by 7, won by 3 in OT, and lost by 1. Then there's their cursed play-off history....I don't think they are one and done this year, but it has to weigh on their minds somewhat.
6.) The Rams are getting no help from their high priced D right now. Goff is in a funk. Gurley is a bit dinged up. AND the Patriots will not even face them until Atlanta anyway.
7.) The Bears look impressive, but the Pats beat them already IN CHICAGO. And if we see them in Atlanta...it would be a welcome sight compared to the Saints/Rams, IMO.
8.) That leaves the rest of us: The Patriots, The Steelers, The Texans, The Ravens, The Titans, The Seahawks, The Cowboys, The Vikings, and The Eagles. That is 9 teams including ourselves. We will not face 5 of them (including ourselves) unless we make it to Atlanta. Of the remaining 4...only 2 of them have a chance of HOSTING the Patriots on the road (assuming Pats drop to #4 seed and play AFC North winner in AFC title game OR Texans win out and we go to Houston on divisional weekend). So, if we play a non-top-5 team...it is highly likely to be played at Gillette. And if we play a top 5 team, we are at worst on the road for divisional weekend, or in the AFC title game, or in Atlanta.
9.) Worst case scenarios: Play Chargers @ Gillette on wild card weekend (if we lose 1 or 2 more games and "back into the playoffs"), play @ Arrowhead on divisional weekend (we would need to drop to the #4 seed, beat the Chargers, and have the #3 seed win), play @ Houston on divisional weekend (assuming we beat the #6 seed on WC weekend), play @ Arrowhead in the AFC title game, or play the Saints in Atlanta. So, that's 5 "bad things" with the first two being unlikely to happen and the latter 2 being a "good season" for us regardless whether we win or lose.