They present some match up problems, especially on defense. Adams, Cobb, Graham Allison, and St Brown can all make plays.
#of catches (and targets) those players have (Packers have played 7 games):
Adams - 52 (78) 13.3 avg, 6 TD
Cobb - 21 (32) 11.1 avg, 1 TD
Graham - 28 (49) 13.2 avg, 1 TD
Allison - 20 (30) 15.2 avg, 2 TD
St. Brown - 6 (8) 23.2 avg
Valdez-Scantling 14 (26) 18.4 avg 2 TD
Cobb, obviously has missed some time, returning last week. It will be a good challenge week for Jones, but I feel like he's up to it.
Same for Gilmore with Adams (who I think will see the majority of the time on, similar to Hopkins). Good challenge for him as well, but he's done an excellent job on his assignments all year.
Graham is a shell of the guy who was in New Orleans. Chung should be able to handle that assignment and win most of the time.
St, Brown and Valdez-Scantling are gimmick fly pattern guys, This is a concern, although DMcCourty should be freed up to play his preferred (and better) position as deep safety, and not be in the box much.
Allison is a younger version of Chris Hogan.
They don't throw to their backs much at all (29 catches on 48 targets total for the position, 9.2 avg), and none are anything resembling a game breaker, it's mostly dumpoffs.
I mean, like any team, there are strengths and weaknesses with personnel, but it's not as if the Packers are running out Hill, Kelce, Watkins and Hunt, and Rodgers isn't nearly the running threat he's been in years past.
I think this is a half-decent matchup, assuming the defense is able to come out healthy. Packers will get yards, but they're 20th on 3rd down (38.5%), and 20th in Red Zone (12/23 52.2%), so I don't really see a reason why they won't get around their average (25.0 ppg).
I dunno, I'm not particularly scared of anyone besides Cobb and Adams, and I think Adams can be contained by scheme and personnel, so that really leaves scheming up Cobb to me. Make sure he's virtually never covered by a linebacker, and they should be ok.
Do that, make Matthews look like Polamalu (something Cam Newton can do, ffs), and the Patriots should be ok.
I'd be surprised if it were a blowout, I expect a TD game-ish. I'd be completely stunned if the Packers ran up and down the field against the Patriots like the Chiefs did. Patriots win and cover (5.5) again this week, unless some crazy injuries pop up or the Patriots turn the ball over 3 or 4 times (which, this year, you can't discount completely from happening.)
