Kraft Says No Brady Extension Needed

[1960Pats]

How are you defining quickly, and what are you basing the "quickly" theory upon?

Just an opinion of course, but when I see a player perform at such a high level as an older player I feel that the change will come more suddenly, physically and/or mentally.

 

[Kontradiction]

Just an opinion of course, but when I see a player perform at such a high level as an older player I feel that the change will come more suddenly, physically and/or mentally.

It doesn't always happen like that. It could also be a situation where his interception total slowly increases over a given period of time (IMO, the first sign that a great quarterback is declining).

 

[1960Pats]

I think this will be the last year for Brady. Wish I didn’t think that but I see him retiring after this season or one after that if we’re lucky. What Evers going on is having a ripple effect

After the NYFL went after Brady I decided that I had enough and will not support the league once he leaves. I didn't really think that he was going to last this long but I'm a man of my word and will wait, as difficult as that has become.

 

[1960Pats]

It doesn't always happen like that. It could also be a situation where his interception total slowly increased over a given period of time (IMO, the first sign that a great quarterback is declining).

I think that's a real possibility also, but I just don't feel like TB12 is a normal case. He's playing at a much higher level than any other 40 yo QB has in the past.

After reading your post I was thinking about looking up Brint Favre's interception totals but then I remembered that he always sucked at protecting the ball.

 

[Deus Irae]

Just an opinion of course, but when I see a player perform at such a high level as an older player I feel that the change will come more suddenly, physically and/or mentally.

Ok, but what are you basing that opinion upon, with regards to the sudden change being physical? Where are the elite QBs of recent times has losing it overnight, without injury being involved?

Warner didn't
Favre didn't
P. Manning didn't, and when he did lose it over the course of time, it was injury related
Moon didn't
Elway didn't
Marino didn't
Young didn't
Montana didn't
Aikman was concussion related

 

[1960Pats]

Ok, but what are you basing that opinion upon, with regards to the sudden change being physical? Where are the elite QBs of recent times has losing it overnight, without injury being involved?

Warner didn't
Favre didn't
P. Manning didn't, and when he did lose it over the course of time, it was injury related
Moon didn't
Elway didn't
Marino didn't
Young didn't
Montana didn't
Aikman was concussion related

I saw all of those QBs play and none of them played at the high level in their 40's as Brady is now, injured or not.

Brady is a special case and it's why I feel his drop off will be more sudden. But guess what? I actually may be wro... er wro... ah... wrong.

 

[Deus Irae]

I saw all of those QBs play and none of them played at the high level in their 40's as Brady is now, injured or not.

Brady is a special case and it's why I feel his drop off will be more sudden. But guess what? I actually may be wro... er wro... ah... wrong.

I'm not trying to go down that path and call you out in any way. Your opinion on "CLIFF!", which is what you're essentially espousing when you talk about a swift physical decline, is shared by many (Max Kellerman's trolling says "hi", for example). I'm just trying to figure out where it comes from, since there's little to no actual evidence supporting it. Elite QBs, barring injury, take a path where they become less elite, then average to below if they stick around, but the decline takes time. They often even have a resurgence, where game smarts overcomes the declining skills enough to give them a Moon at 39, or a Favre at 38, 39 (pre-injury) and 40.

 

[Steve102]

I'm not trying to go down that path and call you out in any way. Your opinion on "CLIFF!", which is what you're essentially espousing when you talk about a swift physical decline, is shared by many (Max Kellerman's trolling says "hi", for example). I'm just trying to figure out where it comes from, since there's little to no actual evidence supporting it. Elite QBs, barring injury, take a path where they become less elite, then average to below if they stick around, but the decline takes time. They often even have a resurgence, where game smarts overcomes the declining skills enough to give them a Moon at 39, or a Favre at 38, 39 (pre-injury) and 40.

Marino went from a rating of 80 at 37 years old to a 67.4 at 38. His yardage at 38 was the third lowest in his career, the other two being 1993, when he hurt his Achilles, and his rookie year. My memory is that he was in slow decline, but the numbers say other wise. his final 4-5 seasons were consistent Marino-esque. The last one is the only one where I would say that might qualify as a steep slope, but not necessarily a cliff. Favre at 41 had the lowest yardage of his career at 2500 something, but he only started 13 games. His yards per game were also off, the only time he was under 200 yards per game his entire career. Again, steep slope, not a cliff.

I think you're right on the money with your analysis. If you dig further, some of the elite QB's excelled late in their career. Tarkenton lead the league in yardage his final season, the only time he did it. Elway's numbers in 12 starts his final season were consistent with his average throughout his career.

 

[Deus Irae]

Marino went from a rating of 80 at 37 years old to a 67.4 at 38. His yardage at 38 was the third lowest in his career, the other two being 1993, when he hurt his Achilles, and his rookie year. My memory is that he was in slow decline, but the numbers say other wise. his final 4-5 seasons were consistent Marino-esque. The last one is the only one where I would say that might qualify as a steep slope, but not necessarily a cliff. Favre at 41 had the lowest yardage of his career at 2500 something, but he only started 13 games. His yards per game were also off, the only time he was under 200 yards per game his entire career. Again, steep slope, not a cliff.

I think you're right on the money with your analysis. If you dig further, some of the elite QB's excelled late in their career. Tarkenton lead the league in yardage his final season, the only time he did it. Elway's numbers in 12 starts his final season were consistent with his average throughout his career.

Your memory on Marino is correct.

I could get into detail about Marino, but I'll just do it this way... QB ratings slide prior to his final season (starting with the partial season where he tore his Achilles:

95.9
89.2
90.8
87.8
80.7

In that 1999 season, where he put up that 67.4, he had a QB rating of 86.0 entering the game where he got injured against the Patriots. He missed most of that game (having only thrown 3 passes) and 5 more after that, and was clearly not the same player when he returned, managing only a 58.1 QB rating.

As for Favre, there was no cliff or steep slope. He'd begun an up and down slide as far back as 2005, after having gone 94.1, 85.6, 90.4 and 92.4 in the years prior:

70.9
72.7
95.7
81.0
107.2
69.9

 

[Deus Irae]

For comparison's sake, here's Brady, post-2009 (ACL rehab year):

111.0
105.6
98.7
87.3 (2013 WR disaster year)
97.4
102.2
112.2
102.8

 

[Steve102]

For comparison's sake, here's Brady, post-2009 (ACL rehab year):

111.0
105.6
98.7
87.3 (2013 WR disaster year)
97.4
102.2
112.2
102.8

My guess is that he's gonna go from Tom Effing Brady to just Tom Brady. Looking at the other greats of the game, I just don't see a precipitous drop. Your earlier post that their guile gets them by any physical decline would be accurate, IMO. I think the major difference is going to be injuries that are more apt to happen to a 40-41 year old guy as opposed to a 28 year old guy. This is where Guerrero comes in. Pliability and all that is going to help Brady overcome the usual bumps and bruises and grind of the season, but a catastrophic injury at this stage of his career would likely be the end.

 

[maust]

My guess is that he's gonna go from Tom Effing Brady to just Tom Brady.

The time has long since passed when he could ever be just Tom Brady, he will always be Tom F Brady. My guess is he will go out at or near the top, just walking away after a 6th or 7th ring (or damn close to it). But twenty years after he takes his last snap he will still be Tom F Brady, The GOAT. It's been a hell of a run and we've been too fortunate for words to witness it.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

The time has long since passed when he could ever be just Tom Brady, he will always be Tom F Brady. My guess is he will go out at or near the top, just walking away after a 6th or 7th ring (or damn close to it). But twenty years after he takes his last snap he will still be Tom F Brady, The GOAT. It's been a hell of a run and we've been too fortunate for words to witness it.

True dat. As I kid (& a younger adult,) I remember being just a Patriots fan... wishing my Patriots were a heavyweight like the Packers or Cowboys or even the Broncos... Hell, in the early 90s, I might have even settled for the Bills! (My God - a team that can win 4 conference championships! The SB isn't that big a deal right... I mean, we're happy to ever win a non-WC game...)

We weren't the smoking crater that the JETE are, ever... but I remember the years of wishing we were top-shelf, to-be-reckoned-with material. Not necessarily the champs, but one of those teams you look at the schedule and circle.

No fan base has been blessed, EVAH, with what we've seen the last 16-17 years. That includes both the team and the GOAT it's revolved around.

Ask me 10 years ago, and I'd tell you we had probably 5-6 good years left with this guy. I sure as hell wouldn't say "When he's 40, and you seem to have a blue-chip heir apparent, keep playing him." He gave them no choice.

Brady, you magnificent bastard LOL.

I just don't know what I'm going to do in 10 years when he hangs them up :/

 

[maust]

I just don't know what I'm going to do in 10 years when he hangs them up :/

I know what we'll do. We'll watch the next guy for decade or so and say "You know we sure got lucky with this kid and 4 SB's in 10 years is great and all but he's still no Tom F Brady. Brady never had 2 All Pro WR's, an All Pro TE, the league's best RB, and 5 All Pro O-linemen all playing with him at the same time. Lemmee tell ya, you give Tom F Brady those weapons and he'da won 10 straight. Oh yeah, while we're talkin' where's that 50 bucks you owe me? I still can't believe you bet me the Jete wouldn't go 1-15 for the 5th straight year."

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I know what we'll do. We'll watch the next guy for decade or so and say "You know we sure got lucky with this kid and 4 SB's in 10 years is great and all but he's still no Tom F Brady. Brady never had 2 All Pro WR's, an All Pro TE, the league's best RB, and 5 All Pro O-linemen all playing with him at the same time. Lemmee tell ya, you give Tom F Brady those weapons and he'da won 10 straight. Oh yeah, while we're talkin' where's that 50 bucks you owe me? I still can't believe you bet me the Jete wouldn't go 1-15 for the 5th straight year."

I would be absolutely fine one day having to explain to some 50 year old kid [sic] how you young whippersnappers never seen a QB like Tom F Brady, and I don't know where my hearing aid is or remember my birthday but I damn sure don't count trophies in flag football (whole game went to hell when they went to 1-second grab, no-throwing-to-the-ground rules....)

 

[Steve102]

The time has long since passed when he could ever be just Tom Brady, he will always be Tom F Brady. My guess is he will go out at or near the top, just walking away after a 6th or 7th ring (or damn close to it). But twenty years after he takes his last snap he will still be Tom F Brady, The GOAT. It's been a hell of a run and we've been too fortunate for words to witness it.

there's not enough likes and agrees for me on this post. 100% on the money!

 

[DaBronxPats14]

When Tom retires he'll hang out at the local pub in the afternoons and get hammered and play Keno.

He'll be weighing 350 in no time

- Max Kellerman