Drafting A Quarterback

[oceansizer]

Given the uncertainty about the remaining length of Brady's career, and given the lead time required to develop/groom a QB in the Pats systems and schemes, I think that QB qualifies as an immediate need. I think also that the Pats will draft the QB who they feel fits best, whenever they need to based on how much interest there is from other teams in that specific prospect. That might be as early as #31, or it might be as late as #136.

Immediate means to me QB who's gonna be a starter this season. Of course the best interest for the organisation is to grab a QB they like the most but I've suggested interesting prospect would be available also in late rounds. Taking one either in the first or sixth round does not guarantee a future franchise QB.

 

[primetime]

Lamar Jackson is an exceptional developmental quarterback prospect who may fall to #31 because some teams stupidly refuse to see him as a quarterback. I would pull the trigger on him there in a heartbeat and be pleased that we're set at quarterback for the next decade.

I don't mind Rudolph or Lauletta but I think both are nothing more than dart throws, and Lauletta has physical limitations. The rest are all just extreme dart throws. It's probably a smart time to draft a QB in the first round. Brady's probably got two more years left in him. And as the poster above made clear with the data he posted, it's hard to find a quality starter outside of the 1st round (and even harder outside the 2nd), so dreams of another Tom Brady are definitely not worth laying odds on.

As I mentioned in the Manziel thread, if the Patriots don't take a quarterback in the first two rounds, I'd just call Manziel and sign him mid-draft. He came into the league as a better prospect than all but a couple QBs in this draft and he's still only 25.

 

[Deus Irae]

(B) The fifth year, right now, only matters if they expect Brady to play exactly four more seasons. Any more, and the rookie will "time out"; any less, and the team would have at least a season to decide if he's "the one."

The 5th year is not just about one year, and it damn sure isn't about just year 4. It's about years 5-7 versus 4-6

 

[primetime]

The 5th year is not just about one year, and it damn sure isn't about just year 4. It's about years 5-7 versus 4-6

What do you mean?

 

[Deus Irae]

What do you mean?

You get the extra year, and you don't start the franchise tag years until a year later. That means that your cost is "certain" for 7 years instead of six, and the money issue years are 5-7, rather than 4-6.

 

[mgteich]

(B) The fifth year, right now, only matters if they expect Brady to play exactly four more seasons. Any more, and the rookie will "time out"; any less, and the team would have at least a season to decide if he's "the one."

If Brady's pays fewer years, we would have an additional year at low compensation, either for our QB or one that we will trade.

As was posted, if we get it right, we could have control of a QB for the next 7 years, 5 years plus 2 franchise tags.

 

[jah]

Can't believe how much Allen love I'm seeing. He's not going to be a good quarterback no matter what team drafts him or how far he falls.

 

[Ring 6]

I totally believe aside from a select few that it’s not where you draft the qb but how you develop them.
There are dozens of QBs playing in college who have the basic skill set that can develop into effective nfl QBs. Many QBs with great skills gave flopped in the nfl and many players who came in with lesser skill set have developed and thrived.
I don’t think you say brady in the 6th means you can fine one easilt in the 6th because he is one of those select few, and I certainly wouldn’t be throwing cassell out there as a yardstick of a good QB pick.
The patriots have a better chance than other teams because of the coaching staff, system and organization.
I’ll put it this way.
There many be only 2-3 QBs that could go to the browns ir jets or bengals,etc in this draft and succeed but there may be 10 who could go to the patriots and succeed. Not a single one would make it as they are today without a ton of knowledge gained in the nfl. Not even close. But the ability to pass on that knowledge and develop that player has an enormous impact on what they become.

 

[mgteich]

What would it cost to get to Allen?

Our top 2 picks would get us up to about 15. Adding our 3rd pick might get us into the top 10. We could substitute a 2019 1st for one of these picks.

 

[mgteich]

I agree with your analysis. I would expect one of your 3 of Tier II to be drafted by us in the first 2 rounds, or even with a trade up in the first if we need to. If the first 4 go in the top 10, I could see needing to move up a bit (even to about 25) to get the player Belichick wants.

The top four QBs are likely going top 5 via trade ups.

Our crop to choose from in Rounds 1-3:

Mason Rudolph
Lamar Jackson
Kyle Lauletta

Rounds 3-5:

Luke Falk
Mike White
Logan Woodside
Chase Litton



We’re up against long odds in rounds 2-3. We may have drafted the 2nd best 2nd round QB in the last 20 years behind Drew Brees (Jimmy G), the best 7th round QB in 20 years (Cassel) & obviously the best 6th round QB of all time.

Clearly BB & co. are good at this QB development thing. I’m honestly fine with any three of the tier II QBs.

 

[TBR]

No. Not in the first 3 rounds. There's major needs on defense & offense. I want to see those filled. Not someone to hold Brady's clipboard in these closing championship years. The odds would have us lucky to see him become as good as Andy Dalton.

 

[Deus Irae]

No. Not in the first 3 rounds.

Yes, and in whatever round it takes

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Yes, and in whatever round it takes

Philosophically, I agree with you in terms of team building and long-term planning. When I look over the player options in this specific draft, however . . . well, I just hope that the Patriots evaluators make a good choice, and that the coaches fill in the gaps. I'm not terribly impressed with the 2018 crop of quarterbacks.

 

[maineman209]

(A) They weren't willing to pay $22M for the franchise tag, so I'm not at all convinced they'd be willing to pay $19M for the fifth-year tender.

(B) The fifth year, right now, only matters if they expect Brady to play exactly four more seasons. Any more, and the rookie will "time out"; any less, and the team would have at least a season to decide if he's "the one."

As I understand it, the 5th-year option for players drafted in the top-10 is the average of the salaries of the top-10 players at that position. However, the option cost for players drafted outside the top-10 is the average of the salaries of the top-25 at their position.

If that's correct, then the option for JG (had he been drafted at the end of the 1st round) would likely have been something around $13M.

 

[maineman209]

Taking one either in the first or sixth round does not guarantee a future franchise QB.

Agree with this part.

However, QB's who can step in as effective starters their rookie seasons are rare, even if they're drafted in the top-5. A QB coming into the Pats system may even have a more difficult time being effective as a rookie.

The point being that, if Brady retires at the end of the 2019, the chances of the Pats being able to draft an "immediate starter" at QB range somewhere between slim and none.

Let's say (for example) that it will take two full seasons for the Pats to get a rookie QB up to speed. If Brady retires at the end of 2019 and the Pats haven't drafted who they think is the best prospect available to them in this draft, they still might be screwed come 2020 - when it will be an immediate need.

So, all I'm saying is that, if the guy they've identified as the BPA QB in this draft - a guy who can be ready to go in two years - if that guy needs to be taken at #31, that's what they're likely to do.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

If Brady's pays fewer years, we would have an additional year at low compensation, either for our QB or one that we will trade.

As was posted, if we get it right, we could have control of a QB for the next 7 years, 5 years plus 2 franchise tags.

I would prefer that if the Patriots find their next QB of the future, they don't go the route that Washington used with Kirk Cousins.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

As I understand it, the 5th-year option for players drafted in the top-10 is the average of the salaries of the top-10 players at that position. However, the option cost for players drafted outside the top-10 is the average of the salaries of the top-25 at their position.

If that's correct, then the option for JG (had he been drafted at the end of the 1st round) would likely have been something around $13M.

Yeah; I was using Blake Bortles, who I temporarily forgot was #10 (the Jaguars traded up to get him). Still doesn't change the fact that the Pats may not have been willing to pay Garoppolo $13M to sit on the bench for another year.

 

[Steve102]

Yes, and in whatever round it takes

I agree with Deus. whatever round it takes to get a guy. I am good. I'll take the next Andy Dalton, under BB's guidance, I am confident that would be good enough to get us deep in the playoffs.

I do feel that whoever the next guy is, he's gonna be in a tough situation. Succeeding the GOAT, with Jimmy G looking like he's pretty good, this 24 year old kid has some big ass shoes to fill. I mean, for the most part, the fan base is looking for a succession like Montana/Young or Favre/Rodgers. No big deal. Just follow up Brady and be, you know, better.

History shows us that the great QB's aren't usually followed up by the Next Big Thing, or even the next guy. It's usually a HoF'er followed by a JAG. Staubach to White (I'd take that drop off) is unusual. It's usually a cast of characters before teams settle on the next guy.

 

[maineman209]

Yeah; I was using Blake Bortles, who I temporarily forgot was #10 (the Jaguars traded up to get him). Still doesn't change the fact that the Pats may not have been willing to pay Garoppolo $13M to sit on the bench for another year.

I agree. I just knew it wasn't quite as high as $19M, and at least a somewhat easier cap hit to swallow.

BTW, I actually got off my butt and looked it up - it would've been $12.198M, same as Bridgewater's (his was declined).

 

[oceansizer]

Agree with this part.

However, QB's who can step in as effective starters their rookie seasons are rare, even if they're drafted in the top-5. A QB coming into the Pats system may even have a more difficult time being effective as a rookie.

The point being that, if Brady retires at the end of the 2019, the chances of the Pats being able to draft an "immediate starter" at QB range somewhere between slim and none.

Let's say (for example) that it will take two full seasons for the Pats to get a rookie QB up to speed. If Brady retires at the end of 2019 and the Pats haven't drafted who they think is the best prospect available to them in this draft, they still might be screwed come 2020 - when it will be an immediate need.

So, all I'm saying is that, if the guy they've identified as the BPA QB in this draft - a guy who can be ready to go in two years - if that guy needs to be taken at #31, that's what they're likely to do.

Totally agree.