I would venture a guess that Cooks was acquired and Amendola re-signed because the intent was to move on from Floyd, for whatever reason(s). I can't imagine that Belichick makes personnel decisions in a vacuum, clearly the roster moves that prefaced them moving on from Floyd were related to their intent to move on from Floyd.
This team routinely drafts players a year in advance, at a position where a current player has an expiring contract who is unlikely to be re-signed, in order to compensate for that foreseen loss. To imagine that they didn't apply a similar approach to the Floyd situation is hard for me to believe.
It seems to me that ROI and timing may be significant factors in the value calculation for a specific player in a given set of roster circumstances.
Floyd (6025/225) is a taller, heavier pass-catcher. In his nearly five seasons in ARZ before being acquired y the Pats, he'd been ARZ's #3 pass-catcher with a 48%-58% catch rate, good for 45-55 receptions/550-850 yds per season and a ypc in the 13yd to 18yd range. He was acquired by the Pats in week-14, after Gronk had been IR'd in wk-13, to cover after Amendola also went out with an ankle injury (wk-14 thru wk-17).
Floyd practiced in wk-14, but was inactive. In wk-15, he played 23% of the snaps and caught 1/2 tgts for 6 yds. In wk-16, he played 73% of the snaps and caught 3/4 tgts for 36 yds and a TD (overall, a much better catch rate than he'd had in ARZ, albeit at a generally shorter tgt range). It's highly unlikely that he mastered the system or anything more than a handful of plays (specifically chosen for him) in that time.
This past spring, the Pats had Hogan, Mitchell, Edelman and Amendola in hand. Mitchell was a very promising youngster, but Edelman and Amendola were both already over 30.
So, it seems likely that the question for the Pats during FA was whether or not to spend the time, effort and roster spot on attempting to teach the entire system and playbook to another soon-to-be 28-yr-old WR, or on a younger prospect who might eventually replace Edelman or Amendola for a longer term. In terms of money, it was likely a choice between paying a younger, more accomplished, veteran "trainee" (Cooks) at roughly the same amount that Floyd was likely to require, and/or less than that to a couple of rookie prospects.
[NOTE: Floyd's 1-year contract in Minny ended up being $1.5M that could escalate (with incentives) to $3M if he produced at the low end of his production range in ARZ, and to $6M if he produced at the high end of that range. For whatever reason, he's missed the low incentive mark by a mile.]
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The Britt acquisition and circumstance seems fairly analogous to that of Floyd last season.
Although Gronk and Amendola are healthy this time ...
- Allen/Hollister combined aren't matching the production of Bennett from last season
- Dorsett isn't (yet) matching the production of Mitchell from last season
- the Lewis/Burkhead/White combo, while very good, isn't quite matching Edelman's poduction
- Hogan, though not "OUT", seems like he may need another couple weeks to return to his pre-injury production level
So, the "viable passing target deficit" is currently very similar to what it was at this time last season, even if there isn't quite the direct one-to-one correspondence.
Britt (6027/220) is also a taller, heavier pass-catcher. In his eight previous seasons with the Titans and Rams, (when healthy) he's been mostly a #2 pass-catcher with a 50%-60% catch rate, good for 40-50 receptions/600-800 yds/season, and a ypc in the 14yd to 19yd range.
It seems highly likely that he'll be getting pretty much the same, limited level of training and specific spot usage that Floyd did at this time last season.
And, even though Britt is technically signed through 2018, he turns 30 next September, so the long-term "investment" questions with him next spring are likely to be very similar to those regarding Floyd last spring - perhaps even more acute since Edelman, Amendola, Gronk, Bennett and Hogan will all be a year older.
