OT: 2017 Degenerate Gambler Thread

[Froob]

I don't think Pats are going to cover, -9 is high. Pats are coming off an all time great gambling season though, think they covered all but 3 games.

 

[BTTA]

And he has an avatar of an ostrich that looks like Phyllis Diller....total nightmare.

Yeah, if it was possible, I'd give a dislike on every post for making me look at that.

 

[Tony2046]

I don't think Pats are going to cover, -9 is high. Pats are coming off an all time great gambling season though, think they covered all but 3 games.

Tough to gauge games at the beginning of the season. New players and a team that prides itself on film study without any film.

But I will say that I expect this to be close until the second half. Andy Reid isn't the best at in game adjustments and BB is. Brady will figure out how to attack their defense as well. So they'll pull away in the second half. So I expect a two score win.

I don't bet on games fwiw. Too many variables. Garbage time scores, injuries etc.....

Another odd bit. I heard some ramblings about Alex Smith throwing the football down field more during TC and preseason. If true I'd imagine there will be some turnover potential with this speedy secondary.

I do expect them to cover but would not bet on it.

 

[Froob]

@fnordcircle Texans are only 8.5 wins for over/under, that's a great bet...

 

[fnordcircle]

True dat.

I call my **** "Collateral Damage".

 

[fnordcircle]

@fnordcircle Texans are only 8.5 wins for over/under, that's a great bet...

I don't do a lot of prop bets. If I was going to do anything other than bet the games themselves I do live betting on what the next play will be, if the kicker will make the kick, etc, etc. But I tend to only do like, $1 bets when I do those and it's really rare and silly.

 

[BobDigital]

You don't feel confident betting against Alex Smith and Andy Reid on the road, in prime time against the Super Bowl Champs and one of the best defense in the league?! That's as close to a lock as it gets.

I felt very confident until Edelman got hurt. I think this offense could now see some growing pains as it tries to figure things out the first few game so that has now made it a red flag for me. I personally picked the Pats to win by 10 but I wouldn't take a bet I feel it going to just squeak by. I want what I feel is a comfortable cushion.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Fnord ask for Fifi & Mimi

 

[BobDigital]

@fnordcircle Texans are only 8.5 wins for over/under, that's a great bet...

I just looked at their schedule to check on it. Actually it is a pretty good bet. They do have to play KC, @Pats, @Seattle, Steelers, TitansX2... It is not impossible all those are loses or they go 1-5 there. However they also have SF, JagsX2, Browns, @Rams, IndyX2... That looks like probably 6-1. A lot of bottom feeders. They are as likely to steal one more game vs the good teams as lose another for the to the bad ones. I do think it evens out and that would put them at 7-6 needing to win just 2 of AZ, @Cin, @Balt. It is hard to know how good or bad these teams will be. I would guess Baltimore looks to be injured again. Off to a very bad start and they have no depth. AZ is hot and cold. Frankly Cinci was never that good and often over achieved. I would put them all said and done at 10-6 as I think they sweep all 3 of those. AZ is on a downward swing and it being @Houston is huge and that is the most dangerous of the 3. I would be worried to take 9.5 but at 8.5 it looks very tempting.

 

[FourierSeries]

$2K on the Pats at -9.

Also willing to bet anyone here $2K that the Pats go 19-0 this season.

 

[fnordcircle]

Fnord ask for Fifi & Mimi

Soon the few of us who would get that will all be dead.

 

[fnordcircle]

Sorry if I was an emotional ass hole there, @PatsWickedPissah

 

[fnordcircle]

$2K on the Pats at -9.

Also willing to bet anyone here $2K that the Pats go 19-0 this season.

Can't bet against my own team, just can't do it. Looking forward to high fiving you later tonight on that first bet, though. Love our team to come out really tearing it up at home. I'd have to go back and look but I feel like a lot of our openers we tend to blow people out.

 

[Dagg]

$2K on the Pats at -9.

Also willing to bet anyone here $2K that the Pats go 19-0 this season.

Wait a minute have you paid up on your Connor Magregor bet yet?

 

[FourierSeries]

Wait a minute have you paid up on your Connor Magregor bet yet?

No, why would i do that? I was essentially right.

I'm still waiting for BaconGrundleCandy to pay me.

Also, you should have more respect for my predictions. After years of making them, I still have a perfect track record.

 

[borisman]

Yes, Houston was my #1 pick as well.
It's -5' right now.
Jax may get a back-door cover but I see them losing by 10 or more.

I also like:
Tennessee -2'
NYG +4
LAChargers +3'

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

I thought this was another thread on Carton's arrest by the FBI.

 

[varjao]

Too much confidence in Houston here, they have not a very good offense, that game is a toss up

 

[borisman]

Too much confidence in Houston here, they have not a very good offense, that game is a toss up

ahem....blake bortles....ahem

 

[borisman]

Too much confidence in Houston here, they have not a very good offense, that game is a toss up

Just an FYI:
Houston is 15-5 ATS as favorites under Billy O'.
Jacksonville is 1-7-1 ATS last 9 opening road games (Edit: they are being outscored by 17 ppg during that stretch).
I'll stick with these trends for now.