Are Big Moves Soon to Happen? Can you feel it?

[luuked]

In order to get a calculation of 2 years, $26 million, you have to combine 2 contracts. You are not looking at the entirety of the new deal, you are looking at the new deal PLUS grabbing the final year the old deal, which makes no sense once the old deal is expired.
You've just 100% made my point for me.

Yes, it is stupid to take 2016 into account because 2016 is done and that would be looking into the past. Similarly, one year from now when it is 2018 and they are deciding what to do with Garoppolo (assuming he is still here), it will be stupid to look at 2017 because 2017 is the past. They are not going to say "we will give you $25 million this year because that's really only $13 million..."

Bottom line is this: The Patriots do not say to players "we underpaid you last year, so we will overpay you next year because it all balances out." Once 2017 is over, they are not going to say to Garoppolo "we only gave you $1 million last year, so we will overpay you this year since it all balances out."

What they will do is completely disregard whatever money he made in the past and decide if he is worth 1 year, $25 million. (Spoiler alert: He isn't)

Sorry but you are not making any sense to me.

I guess its mostly because you kinda imply that they will be making a plan about franchising JG in a year and not now (or have already done so in the past). We are not the Bills or some other idiot organization that doesn't think ahead. The decision to franchise JG and under which circumstances has already been made and the amount of money that will cost over whatever years are part of that hence the absolutely correct calculation of 2 years for 13M.

 

[luuked]

I never thought Garoppolo would be traded until just before the draft if he was going to get traded. There is no upside to trade him any earlier no matter what the Browns were offering because the Browns' offer can only get sweeter. The closer to the draft, the more leverage the Pats have.

Agree.

Directly before the draft or in July/August after another good team realizes that their QB is ****/has a major injury are the two best times to have leverage. The late point even has the added benefit of knowing how much your QB3 has improved and if he can handle the load.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

The Patriots will not use a guy's salary from the previous year(s) as a mitigating factor regarding what to do going forward.

Agree mostly, but...

One aspect that does make a previous year's low salary relevant moving forward is the ability to roll over unused cap space into the next year.

JG's low salary this year may help the Patriots can carry over into 2018 a lot of cap space (10M??? 5M???) from 2017. Millions in carry-over cap space makes carrying a 25M contract for a year for a backup at least a little more palatable.

Another factor making it at least a little more palatable is that at least a few salaries will go down due to front-loading, such as Hogan and (perhaps) Gillislee.

 

[The Brandon Five]

 

[Gumby]

IMO:

That no trade has occurred yet means the overall #1 is not in discussion.

Further, That a trade hasn't happened yet means one of two things:

1. BB has a specific player in mind and is waiting after pick 11 to see if he is still there to pull the trigger.

2. BB has no intention to trade JAG unless he is blown away and nobody is doing that.

The only question in my mind is: WHO IS THAT SPECIFIC PLAYER.??

 

[rochrist]

you are aware that there are professional talent evaluators who disagree with you right? Or do you seriously think you are presenting the only opinion that exists?

There are many more who say he's crap than there are who think he's actually a franchise QB.

 

[XLIX]

Sorry but you are not making any sense to me.

I guess its mostly because you kinda imply that they will be making a plan about franchising JG in a year and not now (or have already done so in the past). We are not the Bills or some other idiot organization that doesn't think ahead. The decision to franchise JG and under which circumstances has already been made and the amount of money that will cost over whatever years are part of that hence the absolutely correct calculation of 2 years for 13M.

Please promise me you will be here in February, 2018, when the current contract is expired. Please promise me you will try to explain to the forum that they should franchise Garoppolo, and explain how the $25 million is really only $13 million because they only gave him $1 million in 2017.

 

[moosekill]

Agree.

Directly before the draft or in July/August after another good team realizes that their QB is ****/has a major injury are the two best times to have leverage. The late point even has the added benefit of knowing how much your QB3 has improved and if he can handle the load.

I am not sure I agree with the July/August trade. In that scenario, the trade of JG hurts the Patriots this year, and they get nothing back until next year. I would think at that point it almost makes more sense to hold him until you have franchised him after the season to see what you can get. Unless it is for a player and draft picks.

 

[XLIX]

Agree mostly, but...

One aspect that does make a previous year's low salary relevant moving forward is the ability to roll over unused cap space into the next year.

JG's low salary this year may help the Patriots can carry over into 2018 a lot of cap space (10M??? 5M???) from 2017. Millions in carry-over cap space makes carrying a 25M contract for a year for a backup at least a little more palatable.

Another factor making it at least a little more palatable is that at least a few salaries will go down due to front-loading, such as Hogan and (perhaps) Gillislee.

It doesn't really matter how much cap space the Patriots carry over; 1 year for $25 million for Garoppolo is overpaying, and they aren't going to say "we underpaid for him in 2017 so let's overpay for him in 2018."

That just isn't how the Patriots do business. They may franchise him to facilitate a trade but they aren't going to overpay him.

 

[luuked]

I am not sure I agree with the July/August trade. In that scenario, the trade of JG hurts the Patriots this year, and they get nothing back until next year. I would think at that point it almost makes more sense to hold him until you have franchised him after the season to see what you can get. Unless it is for a player and draft picks.

Point is that teams are usually pretty desperate if they come to the realization that they need a QB in July/August. It also gives the Pats more time with JB to evaluate how far he has come. It's more likely it happens there or right before the draft than at any other point because deadlines and desperation kinda spurs action and forced action means overpaying.

 

[luuked]

It doesn't really matter how much cap space the Patriots carry over; 1 year for $25 million for Garoppolo is overpaying, and they aren't going to say "we underpaid for him in 2017 so let's overpay for him in 2018."

That just isn't how the Patriots do business. They may franchise him to facilitate a trade but they aren't going to overpay him.

Which is where I point back to my first reply where I said I am not making this point over JG specifically but about contract situations in general (e.g. for all intents and purposes Cooks is not an 12m player next year but a 2year ~6.5m player).

In the case of JG I agree that we will only franchise him to trade unless something happens to Brady.

 

[supafly]

It doesn't really matter how much cap space the Patriots carry over; 1 year for $25 million for Garoppolo is overpaying, and they aren't going to say "we underpaid for him in 2017 so let's overpay for him in 2018."

That just isn't how the Patriots do business. They may franchise him to facilitate a trade but they aren't going to overpay him.

The idea of Garoppolo suddenly becoming the highest paid player in the entire NFL (on an average annual value) is amusing to me. What's even more amusing is the idea of him refusing to sign the franchise tag to become said player.

I'd have to agree with you that Garoppolo isn't going to see that money here unless the unmentionable occurs, and even then--well, let's just say that Garoppolo isn't likely to see that kind of money, period.

Palm Beach Pats Fan makes a fine point about carrying more money over and I'm fully in agreement about it creating more options for the team, but I think there's very little chance that he would be here for that kind of cost.

 

[supafly]

I had a big dinner last night, so yes, I feel a big move coming any moment now.

 

[Rusty Coupe]

 

[Galeb]

I had a big dinner last night, so yes, I feel a big move coming any moment now.

From last night!?! D:

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Can I "feel it?"
No. I can't. But thanks for asking.
Have a nice day.

 

[DarrylS]

Phil Collins..

I can feel it coming in the air tonight, oh Lord
And I've been waiting for this moment for all my life, Oh Lord
Can you feel it coming in the air tonight, oh Lord, oh Lord

 

[Love The Drake]

IMO:

That no trade has occurred yet means the overall #1 is not in discussion.

Further, That a trade hasn't happened yet means one of two things:

1. BB has a specific player in mind and is waiting after pick 11 to see if he is still there to pull the trigger.

2. BB has no intention to trade JAG unless he is blown away and nobody is doing that.

The only question in my mind is: WHO IS THAT SPECIFIC PLAYER.??

Id be tempted for Solomon or Tak.

Or the receiver from Clemson.
Id be elated to walk out of the draft with red shirted Butt and Jones only

 

[DW Toys]

My gut feeling is we'll trade Butler and sign J. McCourty. I think Bill is keeping JG for two years and will see where his 42 year old QB is at at that time. JG is affordable, keeping him 2 years is basically equivalent to a 2 year/$26M contract now, about $1M this year and $25M as a franchised QB next year. Expensive but affordable.

OK Cousin.
You are in the "keep Jimmy G" house.
Let's do this. Write down all the reasons to keep Jimmy G and then write down all the reasons to trade him. If you are a fair and honest man, the Trade scenario outweighs the keep by plenty.

It is still up to the Grand Poobah if JG stays or goes, but being realistic and unless BB changes his mantra that he looks at "value", there is no way any Team would not exploit the multiple picks that BB will milk into yet more multiple picks.

We are talking about paying a "clip board" matador, whom we all hope never steps on the field, more money than anyone else on the Team other than Brady. That is just insane!

"Well, Brady could get hurt". Who got hurt this year?......Jimmy G and Brissett.
It's all luck, but you can't Draft 5 long-snappers because you fear they will all go down with some malady.

I do think there is a lot of truth that we as Past fans, put a higher value on our guys. We are the ones insulted by the offers of other Teams in the past.

But looking out there in this year's QB class, Jimmy G still is best by far via some positive experience in starting, 3 years in the NFL, watching and mimicking Brady, Josh's influence and his attributes like quick release and mobility.

I don't know about Brissett but I would feel just as good at Clip Board, if Osweiler was there or even Fitzpatrick was thrown in for a game or two as an emergency.
DW Toys

 

[manxman2601]

Patriots met with Obi Melifonwu again today. That and the Ryan Ramczyk visits certainly suggests they're preparing the field for a Butler trade to get e2 back. Doesn't mean it's a certainty but I think it makes it more likely.