Are Big Moves Soon to Happen? Can you feel it?

[DarrylS]

The difference is that we know there are teams interested in Butler and Garoppolo. The only ones who thought Mallet had any trade value was Patriots fans.

There is and always has been a tendency to inflate value.. our strength is second guessing and predictions.

 

[carmelo15]

We're not getting number 1 period

 

[BelichickFan]

My gut feeling is we'll trade Butler and sign J. McCourty. I think Bill is keeping JG for two years and will see where his 42 year old QB is at at that time. JG is affordable, keeping him 2 years is basically equivalent to a 2 year/$26M contract now, about $1M this year and $25M as a franchised QB next year. Expensive but affordable.

 

[sb1]

Any GM that even thinks of trading #1 overall for a JG should be told immediately their services are no longer needed.

 

[Love The Drake]

Any GM that even thinks of trading #1 overall for a JG should be told immediately their services are no longer needed.

However I wish they would.
He will be good but never great and never a champion in Cleveland

 

[Ivan]

Any GM that even thinks of trading #1 overall for a JG should be told immediately their services are no longer needed.

Why? If you believe he's better than any prospect in this draft and he will turn your team around then you do it. You have to be right or it will cost you your job but getting a franchise QB is the most difficult thing to do as a GM and if you believe you can get one you take your shot.

 

[luuked]

In regards to what? Knowing what Belichick won't do? And YOU know he won't trade JG? And YOU know Cleveland isn't that "stupid," to trade #1 for JG? And yet, they might be willing to select North Carolina QB Trubisky with the #1 overall pick because THAT makes more sense than trading for JG?

The fact that you are even entertaining the idea that the Browns would draft someone else than Garrett with the first pick just tells me all I need to know. You should stop taking media chatter for anything more than the crap it is.

 

[luuked]

Any GM that even thinks of trading #1 overall for a JG should be told immediately their services are no longer needed.

Meh. I see the rationale against and for it. Potential franchise QB vs. cost-controlled bluechip defensive player.

I just don't think anyone in this risk-averse league will have the balls to chain themselves to JG that much. Because whoever does it will go down with that ship (or get an award).

 

[Kontradiction]

The difference is that we know there are teams interested in Butler and Garoppolo. The only ones who thought Mallet had any trade value was Patriots fans.

LMAO, not for #1 overall or even #11. The Browns are even more brain dead than anyone thought if they offer that up for Garoppolo. I don't think he's going anywhere this year. That's a chip that Belichick, at least so far, seems to value more than a draft pick.

 

[neuronet]

Is this the same poster who asked if Belichick was about to go all in?

Regardless, I think someone needs to take your keys to the internet away.

 

[XLIX]

My gut feeling is we'll trade Butler and sign J. McCourty. I think Bill is keeping JG for two years and will see where his 42 year old QB is at at that time. JG is affordable, keeping him 2 years is basically equivalent to a 2 year/$26M contract now, about $1M this year and $25M as a franchised QB next year. Expensive but affordable.

Respectfully:

The Patriots will not use a guy's salary from the previous year(s) as a mitigating factor regarding what to do going forward. In other words....

Once we hit the 2018 offseason, that $1 million for Garoppolo is gone. If we assume the tag is $25 million, they aren't going to say "well we only paid him $1 million last year, so it's like we are only going to pay him $13 million this year and not $25 million."

$25 million is $25 million and what he made in 2015, 2016, 2017 will be irrelevant to their decisioning.

 

[luuked]

Respectfully:

The Patriots will not use a guy's salary from the previous year(s) as a mitigating factor regarding what to do going forward. In other words....

Once we hit the 2018 offseason, that $1 million for Garoppolo is gone. If we assume the tag is $25 million, they aren't going to say "well we only paid him $1 million last year, so it's like we are only going to pay him $13 million this year and not $25 million."

$25 million is $25 million and what he made in 2015, 2016, 2017 will be irrelevant to their decisioning.

Cooks is the ideal counter argument to your entire point. In fact, if you'd listen to Lombardi he'd counter your entire argument by saying "you have to look at the entirety of a contract to judge it". And I am talking about your point in general and am not making an argument that they will keep JG.

 

[XLIX]

Cooks is the ideal counter argument to your entire point. In fact, if you'd listen to Lombardi he'd counter your entire argument by saying "you have to look at the entirety of a contract to judge it". And I am talking about your point in general and am not making an argument that they will keep JG.

I don't see how Lombardi's quote contradicts my statement; if anything, it supports my point.

If we franchise Garoppolo next year, the entirety of that "contract" is 1 year, $25 million. You don't get to say "oh hey we are franchising him this year but it's really 2 years, $13 million." That first year at $1 million is long gone.

I mean according to this logic, we may as well say "we paid Garoppolo $1 million in 2016 and $1 million in 2017.... so if we franchise him in 2018, it's really just a 3 year, $27 million deal.... and $9 million a year is a good price to pay for him!"

When deciding what to do in 2018, the Patriots are going to look at what it will cost to keep him going forward. They will not look at 2017 as any sort of offset. History has proven they will not overpay a guy on a new deal to make up for the fact that they underpaid him in the past.

 

[varjao]

A few scenarios can happen on draft day , but a blockbuster trade like the one mentioned, put the crack pipe down.

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

It's been quiet for awhile. Belichick started the off-season with several bold moves. I think most of us really like those moves.

But now? The draft is around the corner and there are a couple of potential trade assets that Belichick could package in several different trade scenarios -- and once again reshape the roster entirely.

Of course, it's possible Belichick keeps both Butler and JG and sticks with what he has left in draft picks. Personally, I think both Butler and JG will be traded in blockbuster moves. After all, it's so unlike Belichick to sit on his hands and do nothing. Especially with these bargaining chips.

Bill Barnwell of ESPN just proposed what he admitted was a crazy 3 way trade involving the Patriots, Saints, and Browns. The Pats lose JG/Butler and gain #1 overall pick this year and a conditional 4th round 2018 pick which could become a 3rd round pick if Garoppolo plays 70% of the snaps. Oh, Cleveland also throws in Josh Gordon. Not enough? Probably not to lose both Butler/JG; however, having the #1 overall pick? Wow, so many trade down options with that possibility. Or you could just take Myles Garrett. Regardless, I think Cleveland is coming to terms with the thought of surrendering the #1 overall pick to New England for Garoppolo. So, let's just assume the Pats snag that #1 pick.

How many teams would be willing to give a BOATLOAD of picks for Garrett? I like the idea of trading down, perhaps more than once, with a few guys in mind.

Here are a few players who could be available (with a trade down) and who I'd love to have on the NE roster:

1) Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU. Want a YOUNG, physical back? They don't come any tougher, stronger than this guy. Imagine how much easier Tom Brady's life would become.

2) Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State. If Butler is lost, this would be the perfect replacement.

3) Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State. A true play maker at safety.

4) Haason Reddick, LB, Temple. Looks like a perfect fit with rare athleticism.

5) Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee. Might wind up being more productive than Garrett.

However this shakes out, I think NE fans are in for a very very wild ride in the next few weeks. The calm before the storm?

Yep. Indeed.

Gilmore and Cook were the "big moves." I'd be happy with a "medium move" for Mike Gillislee to for a short yardage RB to replace Blount . . . or re-signing Blount.

Roster looks pretty ok right now. Add a few aging veterans willing to play for short money and a few late round rookies for the future and we're pretty much set.

 

[luuked]

I don't see how Lombardi's quote contradicts my statement; if anything, it supports my point.

If we franchise Garoppolo next year, the entirety of that "contract" is 1 year, $25 million. You don't get to say "oh hey we are franchising him this year but it's really 2 years, $13 million." That first year at $1 million is long gone.

I mean according to this logic, we may as well say "we paid Garoppolo $1 million in 2016 and $1 million in 2017.... so if we franchise him in 2018, it's really just a 3 year, $27 million deal.... and $9 million a year is a good price to pay for him!"

When deciding what to do in 2018, the Patriots are going to look at what it will cost to keep him going forward. They will not look at 2017 as any sort of offset. History has proven they will not overpay a guy on a new deal to make up for the fact that they underpaid him in the past.

I don't see your logic here. The word "entirety" is pretty specific to me and means "everything" which would make it around 26M for the next two years or 13M a year.

Obviously it would be stupid to take 2016 into account because it is already in the past and done while we are not even past the draft for 2017 where he still has only a projected cap charge that can change (900k saved if traded).

 

[billdog3484]

our Quarterback is 40. can we stop talking about trading his replacement already. stop

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

On last week's Quick Slants Podcast, Curran was as close to certain as a reporter gets these days when he predicted that the Patriots would not likely miss out on rounds 1 & 2 entirely.

So, I agree with the premise of the thread. There's probably another trade or two in the near upcoming future.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

If Tommy Curran says it, it's credible.

 

[patfanken]

Here's the thing on the JG trade possibility. You have to believe in 3 realities. First you have to believe that JG is a better QB prospect than what's out there in the QB draft. Second you have to believe that some team thinks that JG is more valuable to their franchise than whatever prospect they can pick with their #1 pick. FINALLY, you have to believe that the Patriots would be willing to trade JG for that #1 pick (plus)

Here is why I believe it will happen.

1. I believe in all three realities. The most important one is that JG is better than all the other prospects and by a LOT. His 3 years experience in perhaps the most difficult offense for a QB to learn does that on its own. The fact he has a lot of physical attributes helps as well. He is nimble in the pocket, has a good arm, and has a lightning release. Finally he has proven he can process what he sees.

2. NO QB coming out this year has even the POSSIBILITY of getting to the point where JG is right now for the next 2 season ..... at least. And that's if you are lucky enough to pick the right one. Only Shanahan has the time to wait that long for his QB to develop. Hue Jackson, does not.

3. I believe that BB would love to have JG succeed Brady. But unfortunately the timing just isn't there. JG wants to play. Brady wants to play more than just one more year. AND is likely to do it well enough to lead the Pats for more than just one more year.

4. Keeping JG longer than just one more year MIGHT be possible, but IIRC Brady's cap number next season jumps to over $22MM and next year's franchise # is going to be around $25MM. That is simply too much money to spend on your QB position. PLUS who knows if Brady will be done in 2018.

5. So the situation is in play for a deal to get done with Cleveland, and here's the deal that can definitely work for both sides. The Pats get the #12 pick, plus the Brown's #52 pick in the second round. They also get a conditional pick next year that starts with the Browns #4 pick, but can be a #3 pick if JG signs with the Browns long term. A #2 pick if the Browns win 4 games next season, and a #1 pick if Browns win more than 8 games next season. So its a deal that is likely to end up with the Pats getting the Browns #2 pick in a draft where they will stil have 2 other picks in the round. Clearly another pick they can afford to give up.

6. It works for the Browns. They keep their first 2 picks in each round for flexibility. They could wind up with 2 of the hardest things to find, a game ready NFL starting QB and pass rusher, with their first round picks. If they did just that they would sell out next season within a week.

7. It also gives them a great deal of flexibility to control the start of day 2 of the draft. They can easily get a key DB piece at they point or can get ANOTHER boatload of picks from some team desperate to get back to the top of the draft for grab one of the developmental QB's who will be there.

Remember, even AFTER they give the Pats 3 picks, the STILL will have 19 more over this year and next, plus the 14 they took in 2016. This really IS a point when you can have too many draft picks before you end up picking good players you are being force to let go, like the Browns did with the guy from Altlanta.

8. It works for the Pats because all they lose is a good back up QB that would be gone at the end of the year anyway. They gain a good shot at adding the final missing piece of their defense by being in positiion to grab one of 3 really good edge rush prospects in Barnett, Reddick or Taco with that #12 pick or a trade down.

9. Then to REALLY piss off the rest of the NFL ownership and their parasites at 345 Park Ave., the Pats do the following,.

a. Sign Ryan Fitzpatrick. Guarantee him $1MM plus incentives to fight Brissett for the back up job. In an ideal world JB would win and Fitzpatrick would be cut, and neither plays anyway,.

b. Sign Mangold to upgrade C and improve OL depth.

c. Trade Butler to the Saints for the #32 pick. If he wants out, get him out. A year too early rather than a year too late

d. Sign Jason McCourty for around $5MM plus incentives. I see him as being a slightly less durable Logan Ryan. Not quite as good as Butler, but more experienced and just as hungry to win. He's just a good fit for this defense and we can afford him. I've finally come around to letting Butler go. McCourty is almost as good and the prospect we get with the pick could be better than both long term (ie Sidney Jones)

e. Now with that 32 pick, we will be in position to pick up a very good DB prospect for the future and STILL have 7 picks including the #52 in the 2nd round, 2 picks in the 3rd to pick up our RB of the future, and whatever other binkies you feel you need with those other picks.

10. Now THAT would be a very scary, deep team on both sides of the ball.