Here is my summary of the three-year transition theory, with its general premise and key recent moves that make it a reasonable, though not neceassily correct, hypothesis. It's hard to predict the future, even for the Patriots, so I'm not saying they are clairvoyant and anything is set in stone. So many things happen in the NFL - major injuries, shocking surprises, bad evaluations of all types, etc. However, the 3-year theory posits the Patriots are preparing for the most likely events that will happen in the future in order to remain a powerhouse with Brady and a potential powerhouse when he departs.
1. The main premise of the 3-year theory is that Tom Brady's last seasons with the team will be in 2017 and 2018 and Jimmy Garoppollo will be the starter in 2019. Brady is signed through the 2019 season, and here is where the devil is in the details. Brady carries a cap hit of just $7M if released in 2019. That number is $28M in 2017 and $14M in 2018. In other words, moving on from his contract in 2019 would not cripple the franchise other than a speed bump. They could also trade him for other assets. Brady's father has acknowledged that this is going to be a bad ending, with Brady wanting to play longer and the team finding too much risk, at his advanced age, of bipassing a long-term replacement for what may be 1-2 more seasons from Brady at age 43 and 44. Brady's father also referenced that the Patriots found a great young QB in Garoppollo. I believe Adam Schefter has the scoop right that Jimmy Garoppollo will NOT be traded this offseason, despite Mary Kay Cabot's questionable reports that the Patriots are open for business.
2. The fact that Brady's 2018 season could be his last one, based on a contract extension with 2019 providing the team with a relatively small cap hit in releasing him, may not be a coincidence. It lines up exactly with a transition plan with the team's options for Jimmy Garoppollo. The Patriots can franchise Garroppollo in 2018 and sign him to a long term extension for 2019 and beyond. Did you note that in this scenario, Garoppollo would be the starting his long-term deal in the exact same year the Patriots could move on from Brady? At this point, Brady would be 42 and Garoppollo 27. In this scenario, the Patriots fully control the rights to both Brady and Garoppollo.
3. This scenario may make people scoff about the uncomfortable 2018 season, with Brady playing quarterback for less money than his franchised backup. Certainly that would be strange and may lead to some big issues, but is one unorthodox, uncomfortable, and strange season worth having a great QB for the next 10-15 years? In some ways it would be the classic mad scientist Belichick going against all conventional wisdom and Brady once again proving to be the impeccable team player. Of course, Brady might react differently and want to be traded if this happened. I remind you, though, that if Jimmy Garoppollo ever becomes the team's starting QB while Brady is still wanting to play, there's going to be an ugly ending, and there is no way around it. There's no way around it because Brady's contract options and Garoppollo's contract options necessitate a big clash in 2018. Garoppollo is not signing a dumb deal to stay on as backup until Brady decides to quit, so the franchise tag will be necessary to retain him, while Brady is still the starting quarterback. Given Garoppollo's clear ability to play well in this offense, it would be very difficult for the Patriots to get rid of him, after going through a lot of backups over the years who gp ever played close to as good a game as JG played against Arizona and a half against Miami.
4. The Patriots realize that Brady is the greatest quarterback of all-time and playing at an insane level for his age. They have also seen Peyton Manning and Brett Farve recently produce all-world seasons, only to be essentially finished within just one calendar year. Sure, Brady is a unique case with a legendary conditioning program, but every NFL player falls off fast. At some point it will happen to Brady, inevitably. However, their recent moves seem intent on maximizing Brady's championship caliber roster while they still have him playing at a high level, even if it means the rebuilding process with Garoppollo might take some time as they are giving up draft picks to "win now." They are betting on Brady for the next two years. This offseason has been a major departure from their typical standard operating procedure. The Cooks deal in particular lines up well with the two year window theory, as he is likely here for two years before wanting a monster deal. The Gilmore deal might go beyond the Butler vs Gilmore value. It may also have to do with the one in hand, two in the bush saying. They wanted to secure a top cornerback for the next few years, and Gilmore was ready to take the deal, while the timing with Butler did not work out. They may not have wanted to risk losing Butler and being left with no elite corner, a major blow to championship contention.
5. To summarize, the Patriots would be giving Brady two loaded teams in 2017 and 2018 for a chance to add to his legacy but as of now, would find it too risky to count on his level of play continuing until he is 42/43 years old. Though Garoppollo won't be Brady, the vast amount of good/great/elite quarterback play they could get for 10-15 years far outweighs the limited later seasons of Brady's career, and it may even be worth it if Brady is still elite. Again, 15 years of stellar play versus a ticking time bomb for when Father Time inevitably wins.
6. I realize that many of these points are open to counter arguments and criticism for making assumptions. I think it is a reasonable theory - not a certain explanation- on the Patriots recent moves (or non-moves in the case of Jimmy G.) if we look at this in a more big picture way where the puzzle pieces all fit together.
