Belichick will make the best long term decision he can - but let's not act like seeing Garopollo play like a Pro-Bowler for half a game and 2 wins overall means that he's anyone's next franchise QB
The good news is that right now Belichick has seen more of Garopollo than anyone else - and Belichick better than anyone understands that QBs for whom Ds lack game film, can look a lot better than they are
Just look at Kaepernick - took DCs by surprise for a season but given a year to analyze him, Defenses showed him to be the mediocre QB he is
That being said, don't expect we're going to get Brady Version 2 from ANY QB - the Patriots of the future need an above average QB and quality depth to win - just like the Broncos determined they didn't need to pay top dollar for a QB period with their current Defense
If Garopollo's value in trade exceeds his actual worth, expect Belichick to make a trade - as it's doubtful you can keep both - seeing as Garopollo himself will surely demand the opportunity to start and have starters money sooner than later
Whatever choice Belichick makes, right now my only focus and hope is that we see Brissette do well enough to also enter the realm of "do we trade him"
That would mean the net impact of Framegate could be to have the Patriots earn back their first round pick and then some - preferably higher in the draft than the #30 that was fraudulently taken away by trading Garopollo and/or Brissette after Brady comes back to win a 5th Super Bowl - OR that the Patriots found a franchise QB for the next 15 years in either one of these guys
In either case, karma comes back to kiss the Patriots and give the finger to Roger
Kaepernick is a great example, and far from the only one. Off the top of my head, here's a list of young QBs who at various points have been considered up-and-coming superstars, and whose career arcs I would not trade 2-4 years of Brady for.
Kirk Cousins: all through this past offseason, he's been hyped as a future star after pulling a 101 passer rating, 4,400 yards, 70% completion and 29/11 TD/INT. He's been pretty **** through two weeks so far.
Robert Griffin III: I don't think this even needs to be rehashed.
Jay Cutler: In his third year, Cutler threw for 4500 yards with a 63.6% completion percentage and 20/14 TD/INT. Even at the time I wasn't sure what the hype was, but Denver damn near rioted when McDaniels sent Cutler packing, on the basis that it was insane to do so because Cutler was clearly an up-and-coming superstar in the league.
Marc Bulger: Managed to look like a possible franchise QB at various points in his first 3 years. The Rams were so convinced that he was one that, when Kurt Warner started showing signs of decline, they showed him the door. Bulger ended up being a pretty decent QB in his own right, but he was never anywhere near Warner's level, and Warner maintained NFL relevance and a high level of play longer than his replacement did. This should be a cautionary tale for Pats fans.
Matt Stafford: In his third season, Stafford threw for 41 TDs and over 5,000 yards. His career has trended downward ever since.
Ryan Tannehill: Also peaked in his third season. 92.8 passer rating, 4,000 yards, 27/12 TD/INT. This was the height of Miami fans talking themselves into this guy as a potential franchise QB.
Brock Osweiler: Started 6 games last year. Ended with 2,000 yards, 10 TDs, 6 INTs and an 86 passer rating. Pretty good, good enough to get him an $18M per year contract. If I was a Texans fan, I'd already be regretting that deal based on the last two weeks.
Tyrod Taylor: Through his first six games last year, Taylor looked like a world-beater. Posted passer ratings of 123.8, 93.3, 136.7, 82.8, 97.4 and 146.5 while leading the Bills to a 4-2 record. He was the toast of the town, and now he has a six year $92M contract even as Buffalo collectively realizes that he isn't going to lead them anywhere. Turns out he's a much different player after a couple injuries and there's some game film to break down and figure out his weaknesses.
Andy Dalton: In his third season, Dalton had 4,300 yards, 62% passing, 33/20 TD/INT and an 89 passer rating. People started to talk themselves into him being a good starting QB. He got paid. We know the rest.
Nick Foles: started 13 games in his second season, piled up a 119 passer rating and 27/2 TD/INT. Three years later, he's Alex Smith's backup.
Some of these guys are good players, adequate NFL quarterback types. But what I keep coming back to is that, they all played very well in short stretches at some point in their first 3 years. Any one of them could've reasonably put up 6 quarters like Jimmy's put up. Would anyone on this forum trade Brady's 39-42 seasons for any of these guys' full careers? I sure as hell wouldn't.
And that's kinda the thing, here. It's a huge gamble; young QBs always are. Looking good for six quarters doesn't prove a whole hell of a lot. It elevates you out of the Brandon Weeden tier, but beyond that you're more or less punching a lottery ticket. You're hoping that your guy will continue along the trajectory that you've imagined for him, and won't get derailed by injury, ego, mechanical flaws, weaknesses being exposed by studious coaches, etc. etc. We see young QBs get figured out or otherwise taper off all the time.
Maybe Jimmy's the exception. Maybe he's the next great NFL QB. Someone's going to pay him a lot of money on the gamble that he is that guy, because that's pretty much what you have to do in today's NFL. If you don't have a QB, you get one, and you pay whatever price you have to--and risk setting your franchise back by 5-10 years if you're wrong--to do it.
But the Pats don't have to make that gamble yet. We've still got Brady, he's shown no signs of decline, he hasn't missed a game to injury in 8 years, and in fact he still might be the best QB in the game. It's a no-brainer IMO to go and get a king's ransom from some desperate team that
doesn't have an option like Brady. Let them pay through the nose for the right to take a massive gamble that we don't have to take, and hopefully won't have to for a good few years. The phrase "let's cross that bridge when we come to it" might as well have been invented for situations like this.
