In the AFC, you can stick a fork in the mathematically eliminated teams:
Ravens
Chargers
Browns
Titans
The fat lady is clearing her throat for the sub-.500 teams with no shot of winning their division:
Raiders
Bills
Dolphins
There will be one, and only one, of:
Colts
Texans
Jaguars
The Patriots are already in the playoffs, which leaves
Jets
Bengals
Steelers
Chiefs
Broncos
fighting for 4 spots, meaning that, barring a team collapsing, we've got a game of musical chairs with one team getting left out. Of those 5 teams:
Bengals - Does anyone trust a Marvin Lewis team to win 3 games in a row with a backup QB? How about winning a playoff game with that backup QB? They may not be toast, but I think we can all at least smell the start of bread being charred a bit.
Chiefs - Easiest. Schedule. Ever. (Ravens, Browns, Raiders) Ok, I'm exaggerating, but the point is that they should win all those games. If the Raiders were at home, I might give them a shot. But they won't be. They'll be on the road, week 17, after being eliminated.
Steelers - Tough game next week (Broncos) before getting two easy games (Ravens, Browns), but they've got the core relatively healthy now, and the receiving corps is killing it right now. After all of their injuries and all of the oddities that have been a part of 2015 for the Steelers, their entire season may end up having come down to the question of whether or not they were able to pressure the Broncos' backup QB in week 15.
Broncos - On the road against Pitt before a pair of home games against the Bengals (likely minus Dalton) and Chargers would, logically, seem to mean that they should finish no worse than 12-4, but does anyone really trust either Osweiller or P. Manning at this point? I expect them to win the division, but that's more because of Dalton's thumb than anything about the Broncos.
Jets - At Dallas, home against the Patriots, and then at Buffalo. They have the toughest schedule, by far, of the three teams currently at 8-5, and they're in the Patriots division. They could win all 3 games, but they could also lose all 3 games (SOJ?). New England should have the division clinched after this next week's games, which might make the Jets week 16 game a bit more favorable to them, but I still view them as the likeliest of the 5 to miss the playoffs.
Breaking it down that way, and leaving out the 'future injury' factor, I see a 'likeliest' scenario of something like:
1. New England (should crush the Titans and should at least split with the Jets/Dolphins)
2. Denver
3. Cincinnati (Having both the 49ers and the Ravens should keep them from losing all 3 games left)
4. Indy (game against HOU this week is at home, and they won the first matchup, but go Texans!)
5. Chiefs
6. Steelers (wouldn't shock me to see them catch the Bengals at 11-5)
