Bump. With FA about to commence and Devin McCourty re-signed long term (making the Pats about $9M over the cap), here's my revised "backdraft" for 2015:
Moves that Create Cap Space:
1. Sign Darrelle Revis to a long term deal. I'm ignoring for now whether it happens in the next 24 hours, row whether the Pats decline Revis' option and let him test FA before re-signing him. I'll stick with the estimate in the OP: 4 years / $60M, $45M guaranteed, $20M signing bonus. Say $10M 2015 cap hit, for a $10M savings over his current cap hit, putting the Pats about $1M under the cap.
2. Convert $7M of TB's salary into signing bonus. Saves $5M of cap space, per Miguel.
3. Restructure Jerod Mayo. Miguel thinks about $4M of cap space can be saved.
4. Cut Danny Amendola with a post-June 1 designation. Saves about $4M, Miguel.
5. Cut Michael Hoomanawanui. Saves about $1.2M.
6. Minor restructurings/extensions for Sebastian Vollmer, Brandon Browner and Kyle Arrington. Should save about $3M in cap space.
7. I'd kick the tires on trade offers for Alfonzo Dennard. Trading Dennard would free up $1M in cap space.
Those moves should create nearly $20M in cap space, with Revis and McCourty signed long term. More space will hopefully be created by long term deals for Nate Solder and Stephen Gostkowski, but that's enough for now.
FA Signings / Re-Signings:
With about $20M to spend, I'd consider the following:
1. 3rd down RB: I'd let Shane Vereen walk if the market is more than $2.5-3M/year, and sign Pierre Thomas, who was cut by New Orleans. I'd guess 2 years/$3M with incentives for Thomas, 2015 cap hit of $1.5M.
2. WR: I'd look at Brian Hartline and Eddie Royal. Percy Harvin could be an option on a 1 year "prove it" deal if he's willing to take a major cut, but I'd be wary.
3. Move TE: I'd look at Lance Kendricks from St. Louis, who could be a cheap pick up. Anthony Fasano could be an option as well. Jordan Cameron would be great, but is likely too price.
4. LG: I'd kick the tires on Clint Boling and James Carpenter. If the market for them is too pricey (which I would expect), then I'd re-sign Dan Connolly, for Ryan Wendell money.
5. EDGE: I'd let Akeem Ayers test the market. There are a lot of good EDGE players available: Brian Orakpo, Brooks Reed and Jabaal Sheard, among others. (Pernell McPhee has already signed with Chicago, and Jerry Hughes with Buffalo). I'd pick the best available market value among them. Ideally I'd love to re-sign Ayers and get Sheard, but I doubt that's feasible.
6. DT: Ideally, I'd love to get both Ahtyba Rubin from Cleveland and Kenrick Ellis from the Jets. That would give a terrific big-DT run stuffing rotation along with Sealver Siliga. Alan Branch could be back for the right price, but I'd kick the tires on other options. Dan Williams would be great, but will probably be overpriced.
7. LB depth: I'd let Jonathan Casillas test the market, and hopefully re-sign him on the cheap.
8. I'd try to sign RFA FB/H-Back James Develin to a multi-year low-cost deal.
I'd squeeze as many of these under the cap as I possibly could. None of them should break the bank, and I wouldn't reach for any single player. Ideally I'd end up with something like:
- RB Pierre Thomas ($1.5M 2015 cap hit)
- WR Brian Hartline ($3M 2015 cap hit)
- FB/H-Back James Develin ($700K 2015 cap hit)
- Move TE Lance Kendricks ($1.3M 2015 cap hit)
- OG Clint Boling ($4.5M 2015 cap hit) or Dan Connolly ($1.5M cap hit)
- EDGE Akeem Akers ($2.7M 2015 cap hit)
- EDGE Jabaal Sheard ($3.3M 2015 cap hit)
- DT Ahytba Rubin ($3M 2015 cap hit)
- DT Kenrick Ellis ($2M 2015 cap hit)
- LB/ST Jonathan Casillas ($1M 2015 cap hit)
That's $20M with Connolly instead of Boling, and $23M with Boling. The list isn't precise, it's flexible, and it can be tweaked depending on the market specifics. The market will determine a lot. If someone like Boling ends up over-priced and a TE like Jordan Cameron is underpriced, the Pats could take advantage of it.
I would argue that if the Pats can achieve anything like that, they would be significantly improved over the 2014 roster. Going into the draft the roster would look something like:
QB(2): Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo
RB(4): LeGarrette Blount, Pierre Thomas; 2 out of Tyler Gaffney, James White, Jonas Gray and Dion Lewis
FB/Move TE(1): James Develin
WR(5): Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, Brian Hartline, Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce/Brian Tyms
TE(3): Rob Gronkowski, Tim Wright, Lance Kendricks
OL(9): Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Clint Boling/Dan Connolly, Bryan Stork, Ryan Wendell, Marcus Cannon, Cameron Fleming, Josh Kline, Jordan Devey
DT(3): Sealver Siliga, Ahtyba Rubin, Kenrick Ellis
DT/DE(2): Dominique Easley, Chris Jones
DE(5): Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Jabaal Sheard, Michael Buchanan, Zach Moore; Akeem Ayers can also play DE
LB(5): Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Akeem Ayers, Jonathan Casillas
S(5): Devin McCourty, Pat Chung, Duron Harmon, Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner
CB(5-6): Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Kyle Arrington, Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan, [Alfonzo Dennard]
ST(4): Stephen Gostkowski, Ryan Allen, LS, Matt Slater
I think that roster doesn't have any major weaknesses, heading into the draft, which would allow BB to focus on finding the best values and fits. With few weaknesses and roster spots, I'd target a 3-down RB, a versatile DT/DE, a versatile OL, a developmental WR and a DB to pipeline. That's about it. My draft would look something like:
1(32): I'd take RB Todd Gurley if he's available. Otherwise I'd trade back and/or trade into 2016. If I traded back I'd take a RB like Jay Ajayi, Tevin Coleman or David Johnson.
2(64): Marcus Hardison, DT/DE, Arizona St. 6'3" 307#. Like Easley, he can play anywhere from the 0/1 to the 9 tech. He would be a major upgrade from Chris Jones.
*** Trade up from 96 to the early-mid 3rd round, using our 4th round pick.
3(mid): Ali Marpet, OL, Hobart. 6'4" 307#.
3(97 - projected comp pick): Take a RB if not taken earlier, or take the best available CB. Need to keep the pipeline going. Byron Jones will probably be long gone, but Eric Rowe, Jacoby Glenn, Ronald Darby, Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Justin Cox or Josh Shaw could be good values.
4(from TB, around 101). Take the best available CB here if not done with the 3rd round comp pick, or trade into 2016.
6(from TB). DeAndre Smelter, WR, Georgia Tech. 6'2" 222#. Will get a redshirt year. Kenny Bell, Darren Waller or Chris Conley could also be options.
6 (projected comp pick). BVA.
7 (from Tenn). BVA, or use in trade.
From the roster above, I'd upgrade Chris Jones to Marcus Hardison (or cut a DE like Buchanan or Moore), would upgrade one of the RBs, would upgrade Kline/Devey to Ali Marpet, would replace Alfonzo Dennard with a bigger CB who can provide outside depth and eventually succeed Brandon Browner, and red-shirt a developmental WR like DeAndre Smelter (or provide competition of Boyce/Tyms at the end of the WR depth chart).
I think that would be a darn good team. Better than 2014, on paper.
