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"Backdraft to the Future!": Misguided Meanderings of a Motley Masochistic Mastermind

2021 Patriots Season:
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Sep 12th

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patsfaninpa

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
If we sign Revis, I wonder if we go after a guard first. There are some pretty good DT's in the division. We need to keep TB12 healthy. Would it be a vet? Or, is the staff confident we could get one at 32 like Cam Erving or Fisher. I'd love to know what they think of Cam Fleming. Is he viewed as a potential starter? Or, just depth.
 

mayoclinic

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If we sign Revis, I wonder if we go after a guard first. There are some pretty good DT's in the division. We need to keep TB12 healthy. Would it be a vet? Or, is the staff confident we could get one at 32 like Cam Erving or Fisher. I'd love to know what they think of Cam Fleming. Is he viewed as a potential starter? Or, just depth.

I'd love to pick up Clint Boling and then add Ali Marpet. I doubt we can afford Boling, but we'll see.

As Peter King notes about the likely Suh signing in Miami:
Suh’s a huge factor for Miami, particularly against New England. Tom Brady has won 12 of his last 16 games against the Dolphins. Against strong edge rushers, Brady feels the rush and steps up in the pocket and makes things happen. Against strong up-the-middle rushers, Brady has to roam to either side to keep the play going, and he’d rather not do that. With Cameron Wake on the outside and Suh now rushing from inside, Brady and the Patriots have a new headache in the division.

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/03/09/nfl-free-agency-ndamukong-suh-dolphins-darrelle-revis-jets/2/
 

patsfaninpa

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
I'm leaning towards Cam Erving at 32 if we don't get a vet and if we sign Revis. I like Hardison and Chickrillo whom we can prob get at 64 and 102.Hit the skill positions at 96 and 97. Can move up from 96 if you really like a kid slipping like Coleman.
 

Gabriel_p94

On the Game Day Roster
I'm leaning towards Cam Erving at 32 if we don't get a vet and if we sign Revis. I like Hardison and Chickrillo whom we can prob get at 64 and 102.Hit the skill positions at 96 and 97. Can move up from 96 if you really like a kid slipping like Coleman.

I don't think tevin Coleman is gonna fall that far. The guy can ball. If he performs at his pro day i think he goes early to mid second round.
 

patsfaninpa

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
I don't think tevin Coleman is gonna fall that far. The guy can ball. If he performs at his pro day i think he goes early to mid second round.

I have Coleman going in the 2nd on my horizontal board. He's got a lot riding on his pro day and prob hasn't been able to work out because of foot problem. RB's with an injury issue can slip. I don't think he will slip into mid third. That's why I said if. I also like Mike Davis more than anyone else on the board. I'd be content with him at 96, 97 or 102.
 

mayoclinic

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The reports about the Pats letting Brandon Browner talk to other teams is perplexing. I certainly hope that it's not a cap space move, as there are other ways to free up money. Browner is far too important to the defense, in terms of his matchup capability and the physical dimension that he brings.

OTOH, I could see Browner being less than thrilled with the silly money that guys like Maxwell and Flowers are getting. He was a bargain signing. I could see the Pats letting him talk to other teams to get a better sense of his market value, and potentially extending him. I mentioned an extension in the OP over 2 months ago.

In support of this idea, SeanBruschi54 notes in another thread:
If im understanding what Howe and Holley said on the radio its that Browner is probably going to get an extension and not be allowed a trade. They dont want him to come to camp unhappy so they offer him a new deal with guranteed money to lessen his hit this year and have a happy Browner who might have felt slighted with all the big money deals being thrown around to corners so far.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/threads/with-under-24-hours-to-go.1117757/ (post #11)

Make it so.
 

mayoclinic

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The reports about the Pats letting Brandon Browner talk to other teams is perplexing. I certainly hope that it's not a cap space move, as there are other ways to free up money. Browner is far too important to the defense, in terms of his matchup capability and the physical dimension that he brings.

OTOH, I could see Browner being less than thrilled with the silly money that guys like Maxwell and Flowers are getting. He was a bargain signing. I could see the Pats letting him talk to other teams to get a better sense of his market value, and potentially extending him. I mentioned an extension in the OP over 2 months ago.

In support of this idea, SeanBruschi54 notes in another thread:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/threads/with-under-24-hours-to-go.1117757/ (post #11)

Make it so.

Cary Williams' deal with Seattle is reportedly 3 years / $18M. That should serve as a reasonable comp for Browner. Extend him a year (through 2017), lower his 2015 cap number by about $1M, and give him some new money to keep him happy.
 

mayoclinic

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Well this plan got completely blown up in nearly every way. Such a shame, I liked it too.

Yeah, I don't even know where to go from here. Didn't see the past week coming.

Thinking about it some more, I'm not sure why losing Revis should blow up the plan. I understand the magnitude of that loss. But scrapping the secondary and switching to zone also messes up the front end of the defense, which is built to fit with an aggressive press-man back end. McCourty is also most valuable as a single high FS paired with an aggressive back end.

So right now I see the options are:

1. Move to a more zone based back end, and mess everything up.

2. Figure out a way to replace Revis (and then keep Browner) as best as possible so that you can continue to play the current scheme, with some adjustments. There aren't any Revis' out there, but that doesn't mean the entire approach needs to be scrapped.

In the defensive blueprint thread I mentioned a long-shot idea of trading Mayo (when he can be traded) and #32 to Chicago for Kyle Fuller. I doubt that would fly, but you never know. Chicago could use a LB with Mayo's skill set, and this is a deep draft for CBs. They are rebuilding, and likely need more than 1 year to do so. There are other options. True MLBs are devalued in my defensive blueprint, anyway, which emphasizes a 4-2 (or 2-4) hybrid front in a mostly sub defense.
 

mayoclinic

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With Danny Amendola restructured, as of right now the Pats WR group consists of Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, Danny Amendola, Brandon Gibson, Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, Kevin Dorsey and Brian Tyms.

2 guys that I would have liked, Brian Hartline and Eddie Royal, are off the market. Percy Harvin seems like a long shot.
 

mayoclinic

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Bump.

Suffice it to say that the offseason didn't quite go as I'd outlined in the OP.

I actually think the 2015 Pats are as good or better than the 2014 team at QB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB and S. RB is slightly weaker, though quite deep. CB is much weaker (though also deep).

Right now I see 2 big question marks:

1. LG. A glaring hole. The Pats drafted 2 RGs in the 4th round. I personally think that Shaq Mason can be our long term starting LG (he has great athleticism, and starting 12 games at LG for Georgia Tech as a sophomore), but he'll probably need a year to develop.

2. #1 CB. I'm fine with Malcolm Butler, Bradley Fletcher, Kyle Arrington, Logan Ryan, Bobby McClain and Darryl Roberts for the most part. I don't think Alfonzo Dennard is a big loss, especially given the rumors of work ethic and attitude problems. There aren't any Darrelle Revis' out there. But I'd like a proven solid veteran starter.

With that in mind, here are 2 moves that I'd love to see, though I doubt either will happen:

1. Sign UDFA OL La'el Collins. A longshot given that 32 other teams will be interested if Collins is cleared, and the Pats will likely be cautious to take on any one with any hint of involvement in a murder case. But Collins is a top 20 talent with tackle/guard versatility. He could step in at LG this year while Shaq Mason develops, then move to tackle in 2016. Sebastian Vollmer will be 32 and in a contract year in 2016, and Nate Solder's long term contract situation has not yet been addressed. An OL of Solder, Vollmer, Collins, Stork, Tre Jackson, Cannon, Fleming, Mason and Wendell would be one of the top 3 groups in the NFL, along with Dallas and Cleveland.

2. Acquire CB Sean Smith from Kansas City. Smith is in a contract year this year, and turns 28 in July. He's 6'3" and has the length to match up with bigger WRs. His cap hit is $7.75M this year, with about $5.5M that the Pats would pick up. The Chiefs drafted Marcus Peters, and have Phillip Gains and Marcus Cooper in house, so the odds are that they are moving on from Smith after this year. SI.com's Doug Farrar has suggest that Smith could be on the outs in KC:
The selection of Washington cornerback Marcus Peterswith the 18th pick should perk Smith's ears up. Peters has had his share of off-field issues, but Andy Reid has never been shy about starting alleged malcontents if they can play, and Peters has real talent. Smith signed a three-year, $16.5 million deal in 2013, and the last year of that deal carries a $7.75 million cap hit, which could be reduced to $2.25 million in dead money were he released. Smith didn't play badly last season, logging over 1,000 snaps and logging an 85.3 opposing passer rating, but it's safe to say the Chiefs probably want more than one pick (and fewer than three touchdowns allowed) from their high-priced veteran. Smith could also receive a two-game suspension for a DUI charge he pled down in April.

http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/05/03/20...shane-ray-muhammad-wilkerson-leonard-williams

BB has reasonably good relations with the Reid-Dorsey regime. I think he should kick the tires on Smith, who could at the very least be a younger, faster and more versatile version of Brandon Browner. The Pats should get multiple comp picks in 2016, so they can afford to trade something like a 4th the way they did for Talib in 2012.

Again, I doubt either of these would happen. But if they did, I think the Pats would have a really strong team:

QB: Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo
RB: LeGarrette Blount, Tyler Gaffney, James White, Travaris Cadet, Jonas Gray, Deon Lewis
FB/H-Back: James Develin. I wouldn't be surprised to see Shaq Mason used as a blocking FB, too.
WR: Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Brandon Gibson, Josh Boyce, Brian Tyms
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Scott Chandler, Tim Wright, Michael Hoomanawanui, AJ Derby
OL: Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, [La'el Collins,] Bryan Stork, Tre Jackson, Marcus Cannon, Cameron Fleming, Shaq Mason, Ryan Wendell

DT: Malcom Brown, Alan Branch, Sealver Siliga, Chris Jones, Joe Vellano
DT/DE hybrid: Dominique Easley, Zach Moore
EDGE: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower, Jabaal Sheard, Geneo Grissom, Trey Flowers, Michael Buchanan, Darius Fleming, Xzavier Dickson, Jonathan Freeny
Off-LOS LB: Jerod Mayo, Matthew Wells, Chris White, James Morris, Deontae Skinner, Cameron Gordon
S: Devin McCourty, Pat Chung, Jordan Richards, Duron Harmon, Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner
CB: [Sean Smith,] Malcolm Butler, Bradley Fletcher, Kyle Arrington, Logan Ryan, Bobby McClain, Darryl Roberts, Chimdi Chekwa

ST: Stephen Gostkowski, Ryan Allen, Joe Cardona (hopefully), Matt Slater

Plus some additional camp bodies. I'd be pretty happy with that group going into training camp.
 
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patsfaninpa

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
Nice recap Mayo. I'd love to get Collins "IF" he's innocent of course. There will be a lot of competition for his services. But, playoff bonus pay, good coaching, probable starting job and playing on a contender give us an edge over all but 7-8 teams. Location could factor in. Maybe, Dallas or Houston. No state taxes.

Sean Smith would be much more of a game-changer. I'd give Andy Reid a three. We have an extra 3 for losing Revis. I'd feel much more comfortable with him and Butler starting. Backed up by Ryan and Fletcher, than I do right now.
 

mayoclinic

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Nice recap Mayo. I'd love to get Collins "IF" he's innocent of course. There will be a lot of competition for his services. But, playoff bonus pay, good coaching, probable starting job and playing on a contender give us an edge over all but 7-8 teams. Location could factor in. Maybe, Dallas or Houston. No state taxes.

I see the main competition for Collins (assuming he is cleared) as being Seattle, Houston, Miami, Denver, Indy and Buffalo. Texas and Florida don't have state taxes. Dallas gave a $55K signing bonus to one of their UDFAs, so they don't have much left, and they are set at LT for the foreseable future.
Sean Smith would be much more of a game-changer. I'd give Andy Reid a three. We have an extra 3 for losing Revis. I'd feel much more comfortable with him and Butler starting. Backed up by Ryan and Fletcher, than I do right now.

I'd offer a 4th and go from there. Possibly conditional to a 3rd. Remember, Smith is in a contract year, so I wouldn't overpay for a possible 1 year rental. But I'd certainly kick the tires on that one.
 

patsfaninpa

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
I see the main competition for Collins (assuming he is cleared) as being Seattle, Houston, Miami, Denver, Indy and Buffalo. Texas and Florida don't have state taxes. Dallas gave a $55K signing bonus to one of their UDFAs, so they don't have much left, and they are set at LT for the foreseable future.


I'd offer a 4th and go from there. Possibly conditional to a 3rd. Remember, Smith is in a contract year, so I wouldn't overpay for a possible 1 year rental. But I'd certainly kick the tires on that one.

You get a comp pick back if he walks. Could even be a three. At worst, another 4th.
 

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