Patriots Local News:

SOURCE:CBS Boston


SOURCE:ProFootballTalk.com


SOURCE:98.5 The Sports Hub


SOURCE:Yahoo! Sports


SOURCE:NFL.com


SOURCE:WEEI


SOURCE:WEEI


SOURCE:NESN


SOURCE:NESN


SOURCE:NESN


SOURCE:NESN


SOURCE:NESN


SOURCE:NESN


SOURCE:Boston.com


SOURCE:USA TODAY


SOURCE:ProFootballTalk.com


SOURCE:Yahoo! Sports


SOURCE:WEEI


SOURCE:Boston.com


SOURCE:Boston.com


SOURCE:Yahoo! Sports


SOURCE:Yahoo! Sports


SOURCE:WEEI


SOURCE:NBC Sports Boston


SOURCE:NBC Sports Boston

Patsfans.com

Upcoming Opponent:
Next Up: Jets
Sun
Sep 22nd
Right Now At PatsFans.com:
White Wash
It was a whitewash in Miami as the Patriots defense rocked the Dolphins and New England improved to 2-0 on the season.

Current Patriots Twitter Feed:

"Backdraft to the Future!": Misguided Meanderings of a Motley Masochistic Mastermind

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by mayoclinic, Jan 2, 2015.

  1. meatface

    meatface Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2012
    Messages:
    5,336
    Likes Received:
    643
    Ratings:
    +3,846
    That is way more money than I think anyone would give Akeem Ayers. Also is there any cap room at that point? The Pats always keep a couple million in cap room
     
  2. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 1, 2008
    Messages:
    16,682
    Likes Received:
    1,924
    Ratings:
    +5,609
    You're obviously entitled to your opinion re Ayers. My view is certainly not gospel, though I've explained my reasons for it.

    Re cap space, this is just a working exercise, and as I said, things will be tight. Absolutely the Pats will want to keep a couple of million in cap room. A couple of things to consider:

    1. In the offseason, only the top 51 players count towards the cap, plus the dead money. In my exercise in the OP, the top 51 salaries total $137.8M, with $4.6M in dead money, for a cap commitment of $142.4M. With an adjusted cap of $149M, that leaves $6.6M, which is more than enough for a provisional operating budget for signing rookies and UDFAs. UDFAs will likely be low-cost signings and won't count against the top 51. Any signing that has enough of a 2015 cap hit to count against the top 51 will push one of the lower contracts out, and the amount of that contract would be decremented. For example, if the Pats sign their 1st round draft pick with a 2015 cap hit of $1.325M (which was Easley's 2014 cap hit, for comparison), then that would bump the current #51 cap hit, which is $585K in the OP, and only increase the top 51 cap charge by about $740K ($1.325M-$0.585M). A team can sign all the players that it wants up to the 90 player limit, so long as the top 51 plus dead space are under the cap. Teams need to be careful with how much guaranteed money/signing bonus they offer, as that will become additional dead cap space for any players cut.

    2. Once the regular season starts, all players under contract count towards the cap. That will be 53 players plus a 10 person PS and players on PUP/IR. The salaries for the PS players will be fairly minimal. Other players cut will only increase the dead cap space in terms of their signing bonuses and other guaranteed money still owed. Right now the 17 players outside of the top 51 count for $7.96M in cap hit. Some of these will be cut, some will be re-signed to the PS for much lower salaries, and some will make the team and bump players with higher cap hits (such as Michael Hoomanawanui). The result will likely free up $6M+ in cap space and provide working funds for during the season.

    I'm not a capologist, but I think that things are workable as I've outlined them, though there is not a lot of wiggle room.
     
    • Useful Useful x 1
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2015
  3. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 1, 2008
    Messages:
    16,682
    Likes Received:
    1,924
    Ratings:
    +5,609
    It's also worth noting that with the 68 players listed in the OP plus the rookies, the Pats have pretty good depth at most positions to start training camp:

    QB(3): Brady, Garoppolo, Gilbert
    RB(7): Vereen, Blount, Gray, Gaffney, White, Lewis, Robinson
    TE/H-Back(4): Gronk, Wright, Hooman, Develin; possible UFA pickup as well
    WR(8): Edelman, LaFell, Royal, Dobson, Tyms, Boyce, McBride, Orton; Smelter on PUP
    OL(12): Solder, Vollmer, Boling/Carpenter, Stork, Erving/other rookie, Fleming, Cannon, Wendell, Devey, Kline, Barker, Hauptmann

    DT(7): Wilfork, Goldman, Easley, Branch, Siliga, Chris Jones, Antonio Johnson
    DE/OLB(8): Chandler Jones, Ninkovich, Ayers, Spence, Moore, Buchanan, Bequette, Rufus Johnson
    LB(8): Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Casillas, Fleming, Gordon, Morris, Skinner
    S(6): McCourty, Vaccaro/Ebner, Wilson, Harmon, Ebner, Green
    CB(7): Revis, Browner, Arrington, Ryan, Dennard, Butler, Swanson

    ST(5+): Gostkowski, Allen, Slater, plus some UDFAs

    Add a few UDFAs and some low-cost guys for minimal additional cap hit and you have a solid 90 man roster. Most of those guys won't make the first cutdown, and will cost only their minimal signing bonuses against the cap in additional dead cap space. There's probably enough room to make a veteran pickup or two if someone should become available.
     
  4. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 1, 2008
    Messages:
    16,682
    Likes Received:
    1,924
    Ratings:
    +5,609
    BTW, if the Pats did pick up a starting caliber offensive guard and a #3 WR in FA, then I'd be quite willing to use our top 2 picks on defense for a DT and a DE/OLB. It would depend on who is the best player available in the 2nd round.
     
  5. Gronkandez

    Gronkandez 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2012
    Messages:
    1,744
    Likes Received:
    67
    Ratings:
    +271
    Mayo,
    I cringe to even ask but.... I'm having this weird feeling Tom Brady is going to be the starting QB for the LA RAMS in 2016. I've thought long and hard about his restructure, what it would mean and where he would most likely go. In LA. he and Giselle would be in a world class city and he could really the sell the crap out of his Uggs and TB12 brands... and of course he could make twice what he makes here in salary. Not that it's all about money for them but I really can't see them living in Houston or Tennessee or something like that.
    The Rams are a QB away from being very good in two years, assuming they can acquire and develop some receivers. Tavon Austin aint gonna cut it but Quick may be serviceable.

    what is the dead money cap hit and cap savings in the "off" chance Brady gets cut/traded in 2015 or 2016? The deal has changed too many times for me to keep track. I know they would need to accelerate his bonus which at one point was $30M over five years.
     
  6. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 1, 2008
    Messages:
    16,682
    Likes Received:
    1,924
    Ratings:
    +5,609
    Tom Brady is under contract through 2017. He isn't going anywhere unless the Pats want to move on, and I personally don't see that happening.
     
  7. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 1, 2008
    Messages:
    16,682
    Likes Received:
    1,924
    Ratings:
    +5,609
    FWIW, Miguel has outlined some potential re-signing predictions for Pats FAs:

    http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=1077?sc=rss

    Miguel lists Develin as an ERFA, which should make him a bit cheaper than what I projected. Miguel also has different projections regarding Ridley and Connolly (re-signed, where I have them moving on) and Vereen, Branch and Ayers (moving on, where I have them re-signed). Miguel's re-signing hit for Pat Chung also seems low to me ($1.2M 2015 cap hit).
     
  8. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 1, 2008
    Messages:
    16,682
    Likes Received:
    1,924
    Ratings:
    +5,609
    A lot depends on how things play out with re-signings and FA, but if things go anywhere near as outlined in the OP then I'd be very, very strongly inclined to look for a DT in round 1. Right now there are 3 potential guys (2 still undeclared, though rumored to be coming out) who I think could be legitimate successors to VW:

    1. Eddie Goldman, Florida St.. 6'4" 320#. Athletic enough that he played DE last year. Very strong, but with explosiveness and athleticism. I sort of think of him as a fusion of Haloti Ngata and Ndamukong Suh, though maybe not quite at the level of those guys.

    2. Jordan Phillips, Oklahoma. 6'6" 334#. I think he's another Dontari Poe in terms of size, strength and athleticism. A true NT with outstanding atheticism, and the ability to play DT as well.

    3. Malcolm Brown, Texas. 6'2" 320#. Not quite as athletic as Goldman, but a very physical guy who dominate interior linemen.

    I really like these 3 guys. I rate them on a par or slightly ahead of OLs TJ Clemmings, La'el Collins, Brandon Scherff and Cam Erving, and DE/OLBs Danielle Hunter, Dante Fowler and Bud Dupree.
     
  9. patsfaninpa

    patsfaninpa Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2004
    Messages:
    5,496
    Likes Received:
    666
    Ratings:
    +1,823
    I like to go by CBS rankings when I do my mocks. Matt Miller has a new big-board out today.

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-millers-post-regular-season-big-board/page/2

    Miller has Brown at 24 and Goldman at 36. I'd take either at 32. I would go edge-rusher if we lose Akers next. My last mock had Markus Golden at 64. He's 66 on his big board. Could also go Trey Flowers if we want more of a pure 4-3 de.

    I think we can get guards late in the 3rd and early 4th. I'd double dip. Jarvis Harrison and Laken Tomlinson. He's got Cann 71, Matias 98 and Kouandijo 114.

    Then, I went Kroft-TE and Shaw-CB in the 4th. He has both available. I went Smelter and Hull in the 6th and 7th. Would have to reverse them with his rankings. In fact, Smelter isn't on his or cbs rankings. I'm wondering if UDFA for him because of the knee injury.
     
  10. AzorianPats

    AzorianPats In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2013
    Messages:
    3,296
    Likes Received:
    651
    Ratings:
    +2,662
    According to that bleacher report card DeForest Buckner from Oregon coming out this draft? Is that accurate?
     
  11. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 1, 2008
    Messages:
    16,682
    Likes Received:
    1,924
    Ratings:
    +5,609
    Everything I've heard says that he is going back.
     
  12. AzorianPats

    AzorianPats In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2013
    Messages:
    3,296
    Likes Received:
    651
    Ratings:
    +2,662
    That's what I heard also. If he does come out this year. Sign me up! He was dominate in the Rose Bowl!
     
  13. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 1, 2008
    Messages:
    16,682
    Likes Received:
    1,924
    Ratings:
    +5,609
    Vince Wilfork's $8.9M cap hit is one of the big elephants in the room for the Pats for next season. Wilfork is due a $4M roster bonus if he is on the Pats' roster the first day of the 2015 league year, per Miguel:

    http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=1083?sc=rss

    Wilfork's play has been good enough this year that the Pats are going to probably just have to suck it up and pay the man. Dante Scarnecchia recently lauded Wilfork's performance this year, and put him along with Brady, Gronk and Revis among the most indispensable players on the team:
    http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...d/4775635/no-overlooking-vince-wilforks-value

    Reiss had this to say on the subject in today's mailbag:
    http://espn.go.com/boston/story/_/page/reissmailbagweek0106/facing-ravens-worst-case-scenario

    It's hard for me to see Wilfork taking a payout, and I'd be loathe to do anything that pushes more guaranteed money into 2016 (currently only $433K is guaranteed for 2016). At this point my early "backdraft" template includes keeping Wilfork for 2015, and drafting a successor for 2016.
     
    • Useful Useful x 1
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2015
  14. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 1, 2008
    Messages:
    16,682
    Likes Received:
    1,924
    Ratings:
    +5,609
    Some alternatives to Noah Spence with our 3rd round comp pick would include Owamagbe Odighizuwa and Max Valles. Values, a RS sophomore from Virginia, just declared. He is a 6'5" 240# former TE with terrific athleticism who would excel in space.
     
    • Useful Useful x 1
  15. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 1, 2008
    Messages:
    16,682
    Likes Received:
    1,924
    Ratings:
    +5,609
    I'm actually going to update my draft from the OP, partly because I doubt Cam Erving will be within tradeup range in the 2nd round, partly because I really like some players who have declared since the OP was written:

    ***Trade: Pats trade 1st (32) and 3rd (96) round picks to move up to around 24-25 in the 1st round.
    1st (24-25). Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida St. 6'4" 320#. A cross between Ndamukong Suh and Haloti Ngata. He'll be a stud anchoring the interior of the DL for a long time. If Goldman is out of reach, then Jordan Phillips or Malcolm Brown would be worthy alternatives.
    2nd (64). Max Valles, DE/OLB, Virginia. 6'5" 240#. Collinsesque, and only 19.
    3rd (97 - comp). Jeremiah Poutasi, OL, Utah. 6'6" 320#. Or Donovan Smith, OL, Penn St. 6'5" 330#. If the Pats sign an OL like Clint Boling or James Carpenter then they can wait until the 3rd to take an OL, in a very deep group.
    4th(101) (from TB). [Traded to NO for S Kenny Vaccaro; otherwise used to draft the best DB available.]
    4th(around 130). Jesse James, TE, Penn St. 6'6" 255#. Freakish athleticism and upside, if he has the inner fire. Or Jeff Heuerman, TE, Ohio St. 6'5" 260#.
    6th (from TB). DeAndre Smelter, WR, Georgia Tech. 6'3" 222#. Gets a red shirt year to recover from his ACL tear.
    6th (comp). Josh Robinson, RB, Mississippi St. 5'9" 222#. "The human bowling ball."
    7th (from Tenn). Tre McBride, WR, William & Mary. 6'1" 205#. Will compete with Tyms and Boyce for a roster spot.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  16. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 1, 2008
    Messages:
    16,682
    Likes Received:
    1,924
    Ratings:
    +5,609
    He's a stud. If he comes out he will be very high on my list. There are so many darn good defensive linemen in this draft (with a few of them still not official):

    - Eddie Goldman
    - Jordan Phillips
    - Malcolm Brown
    [- DeForest Buckner]
    - Danielle Collins
    - Bud Dupree
    - Dante Fowler
    - Max Valles
    - Noah Spence
    - Owamagbe Odighizuwa
    - Mario Edwards

    I think we're 2 good rotational guys away from having as good a front 7 as any in the league, and we already have one of the best LB groups and secondaries. I'll be giddy if we get a couple of the guys listed above.
     
  17. AzorianPats

    AzorianPats In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2013
    Messages:
    3,296
    Likes Received:
    651
    Ratings:
    +2,662

    Don't forget Armstead!
     
  18. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 1, 2008
    Messages:
    16,682
    Likes Received:
    1,924
    Ratings:
    +5,609
    Accountability check. From the OP:

    The Pats have now re-signed Pat Chung to a 3 year/$8M deal with $3.4M guaranteed, with a $2.4M signing bonus. Base salaries of $1, $1.4 and $1.8M. $200K roster bonus in each season, and an additional $500K in incentives. 2015 cap hit should be around $2M+ ($1M base + $800K pro-rated signing bonus + $200 K roster bonus + any incentives reached). I still like the idea of Vaccaro, but that was always a long shot; re-signing Chung was much more realistic. If I were the Pats I would have at least explored that option before re-signing Chung. I don't know if that happened. But overall, I'd say I was reasonably accurate with the predicted contract value of a Chung re-signing and of a starting hybrid safety.

    Brandon Bolden also re-signed, for a 2 year deal reportedly worth $2.32M with $300K guaranteed and a $300K signing bonus. Base of $660K in 2015 and $760K in 2016. Roster bonus of $200K in 2016 and $350K in 2016. 2016 cap hit of around $810-1010K; 2017 cap hit of around $910-1260K.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...849/patriots-sign-brandon-bolden-to-extension

    I did not predict that one.

    Re-addressing the projected players under contract prior to the 2015 draft (and using the lower 2015 cap hit values for Chung and Bolden for now):

    Players Under Contract Prior to the 2015 Draft:

    1. CB Darrelle Revis ($16M with new deal)
    2. QB Tom Brady ($9M after restructure to move base salary into signing bonus)
    3. DT Vince Wilfork ($9M)
    4. TE Rob Gronkowsku ($8.65M)
    5. OT Sebastian Vollmer ($7M after a 1 year extension and restructuring)
    6. LB Jerod Mayo ($6.2M after restructuring as proposed by Miguel)
    7. OT Nate Solder ($5.5M 2015 cap hit on a long term deal)
    8. DB Devin McCourty ($5M 2015 cap hit on a long term deal)
    9. WR Julian Edelman ($4.15M)
    10. OL Clint Boling/James Carpenter ($4M 2015 cap hit on a long term deal)
    11. CB Brandon Browner ($3.8M after a 1 year extension and restructuring)
    12. DE/OLB Rob Ninkovich ($3.7M)
    13. CB Kyle Arrington ($3.625M after a 1 year extension and restructuring)
    14. WR Brandon LaFell ($3.5M)
    15. WR Eddie Royal (3.5M 2015 cap hit on a long term deal)
    16. K Stephen Gostkowski ($3M)
    17. DE/OLB Akeem Ayers ($2.625M 2015 cap hit on a long term deal)
    18. OL Marcus Cannon ($2.62M)
    19. DE Chandler Jones ($2.6M)
    20. RB Shane Vereen ($2.5M)
    21. LB Dont'a Hightower ($2.45M)
    22. DB Pat Chung ($2M + incentives).
    23. ST Matt Slater ($1.75M)
    24. DT/DE Dominique Easley ($1.66M)
    25. OL Ryan Wendell ($1.6M)
    26. TE Michael Hoomanawanui ($1.58M)
    27. CB Alfonzo Dennard ($1.5M)
    28. DT Alan Branch ($1.5M)
    29. S Tavon Wilson ($1.35M)
    30. LB Jonathan Casillas ($1.33M)
    31. LB Jamie Collins ($1M)
    32. WR Aaron Dobson ($935K)
    33. RB/ST Brandon Bolden ($810K + roster bonuses)
    34. RB LeGarrette Blount ($745K)
    35. CB Logan Ryan ($745K)
    36. S Duron Harmon ($725K)
    37. QB Jimmy Garoppolo ($715K)
    38. FB/H-Back James Develin $700K)
    39. S/ST Nate Ebner ($685K)
    40. DT Sealver Siliga ($660K)
    41. RB James White ($610K)
    42. DE Michael Buchanan ($600K)
    43. TE Tim Wright ($585K)
    44. WR Brian Tyms ($585K)
    45. OL Cameron Fleming ($585K)
    46. OL Bryan Stork ($585K)
    47. OL Josh Kline ($585K)
    48. DT Chris Jones ($585K)
    49. DT Antonio Johnson ($585K)
    50 DE Jake Bequette ($585K)
    51. LB Darius Fleming ($585K)
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    52. ST Ryan Allen ($585K)
    53. RB Deion Lewis ($585K)
    54. DE Zach Moore ($535K)
    55. WR Josh Boyce ($510K)
    56. RB Jonas Gray ($510K)
    57. RB Tyler Gaffney ($510K)
    58. OL Jordan Devey ($510K)
    59. OL Chris Barker ($510K)
    60. OL Caylin Hauptmann ($510K)
    61. LB Cameron Gordon ($510K
    62.[LB James Morris ($510K)
    63. LB Deontae Skinner ($510K)
    64. CB Malcolm Butler ($510K)
    65. QB Garrett Gilbert ($435K)
    66. WR Greg Orton ($435K)
    67. DE Rufus Johnson ($435K)
    68. S Justin Green ($435K)
    69. CB Daxton Swanson ($435K)

    Total cap hit (69 players): $145.9M
    Top 51 cap hit: $137.5M
    Dead space: $4.6M
    Total 2015 cap commitment: $150.5M

    Note that Chung's deal is slightly lower than what I had listed using Vaccaro's 2015 cap hit, and Bolden's deal only adds a few hundred thousand over the previous 51st player's cap hit, so the net result is an slight increase in total cap commitment but a slight decrease in the top 51.[/COLOR]
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2015
  19. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2011
    Messages:
    29,399
    Likes Received:
    7,702
    Ratings:
    +26,720

    I'm not commenting as to the accuracy or not of this prediction but just using this as a sequel into noting that in the three games since Chandler Jones has returned (I'm not including Jones' first game back against the Dolphins), Akeem Ayers has had just 30 snaps in those three games. And that number is skewed by a 24 snap game against the Bills. Even in that game, Ayers only rushed the passer 7 times. He had five snaps against the Jets and just one snap last night. Starting to wonder just how much value BB will place on re-signing Ayers.
     
  20. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 1, 2008
    Messages:
    16,682
    Likes Received:
    1,924
    Ratings:
    +5,609
    That's certainly something to follow, though I think that BB was influenced by the run-heavy Ravens. I also note that the pass rush was anemic yesterday - more Ayers might have been a good thing.
     

Share This Page

Search For Links: - CLOSE
For searches with multiple players
add commas (Ex: "Brady, Gronkowski")