"Backdraft to the Future!": Misguided Meanderings of a Motley Masochistic Mastermind

[meatface]

That is way more money than I think anyone would give Akeem Ayers. Also is there any cap room at that point? The Pats always keep a couple million in cap room

 

[mayoclinic]

That is way more money than I think anyone would give Akeem Ayers. Also is there any cap room at that point? The Pats always keep a couple million in cap room

You're obviously entitled to your opinion re Ayers. My view is certainly not gospel, though I've explained my reasons for it.

Re cap space, this is just a working exercise, and as I said, things will be tight. Absolutely the Pats will want to keep a couple of million in cap room. A couple of things to consider:

1. In the offseason, only the top 51 players count towards the cap, plus the dead money. In my exercise in the OP, the top 51 salaries total $137.8M, with $4.6M in dead money, for a cap commitment of $142.4M. With an adjusted cap of $149M, that leaves $6.6M, which is more than enough for a provisional operating budget for signing rookies and UDFAs. UDFAs will likely be low-cost signings and won't count against the top 51. Any signing that has enough of a 2015 cap hit to count against the top 51 will push one of the lower contracts out, and the amount of that contract would be decremented. For example, if the Pats sign their 1st round draft pick with a 2015 cap hit of $1.325M (which was Easley's 2014 cap hit, for comparison), then that would bump the current #51 cap hit, which is $585K in the OP, and only increase the top 51 cap charge by about $740K ($1.325M-$0.585M). A team can sign all the players that it wants up to the 90 player limit, so long as the top 51 plus dead space are under the cap. Teams need to be careful with how much guaranteed money/signing bonus they offer, as that will become additional dead cap space for any players cut.

2. Once the regular season starts, all players under contract count towards the cap. That will be 53 players plus a 10 person PS and players on PUP/IR. The salaries for the PS players will be fairly minimal. Other players cut will only increase the dead cap space in terms of their signing bonuses and other guaranteed money still owed. Right now the 17 players outside of the top 51 count for $7.96M in cap hit. Some of these will be cut, some will be re-signed to the PS for much lower salaries, and some will make the team and bump players with higher cap hits (such as Michael Hoomanawanui). The result will likely free up $6M+ in cap space and provide working funds for during the season.

I'm not a capologist, but I think that things are workable as I've outlined them, though there is not a lot of wiggle room.

 

[mayoclinic]

It's also worth noting that with the 68 players listed in the OP plus the rookies, the Pats have pretty good depth at most positions to start training camp:

QB(3): Brady, Garoppolo, Gilbert
RB(7): Vereen, Blount, Gray, Gaffney, White, Lewis, Robinson
TE/H-Back(4): Gronk, Wright, Hooman, Develin; possible UFA pickup as well
WR(8): Edelman, LaFell, Royal, Dobson, Tyms, Boyce, McBride, Orton; Smelter on PUP
OL(12): Solder, Vollmer, Boling/Carpenter, Stork, Erving/other rookie, Fleming, Cannon, Wendell, Devey, Kline, Barker, Hauptmann

DT(7): Wilfork, Goldman, Easley, Branch, Siliga, Chris Jones, Antonio Johnson
DE/OLB(8): Chandler Jones, Ninkovich, Ayers, Spence, Moore, Buchanan, Bequette, Rufus Johnson
LB(8): Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Casillas, Fleming, Gordon, Morris, Skinner
S(6): McCourty, Vaccaro/Ebner, Wilson, Harmon, Ebner, Green
CB(7): Revis, Browner, Arrington, Ryan, Dennard, Butler, Swanson

ST(5+): Gostkowski, Allen, Slater, plus some UDFAs

Add a few UDFAs and some low-cost guys for minimal additional cap hit and you have a solid 90 man roster. Most of those guys won't make the first cutdown, and will cost only their minimal signing bonuses against the cap in additional dead cap space. There's probably enough room to make a veteran pickup or two if someone should become available.

 

[mayoclinic]

BTW, if the Pats did pick up a starting caliber offensive guard and a #3 WR in FA, then I'd be quite willing to use our top 2 picks on defense for a DT and a DE/OLB. It would depend on who is the best player available in the 2nd round.

 

[Gronkandez]

Mayo,
I cringe to even ask but.... I'm having this weird feeling Tom Brady is going to be the starting QB for the LA RAMS in 2016. I've thought long and hard about his restructure, what it would mean and where he would most likely go. In LA. he and Giselle would be in a world class city and he could really the sell the crap out of his Uggs and TB12 brands... and of course he could make twice what he makes here in salary. Not that it's all about money for them but I really can't see them living in Houston or Tennessee or something like that.
The Rams are a QB away from being very good in two years, assuming they can acquire and develop some receivers. Tavon Austin aint gonna cut it but Quick may be serviceable.

what is the dead money cap hit and cap savings in the "off" chance Brady gets cut/traded in 2015 or 2016? The deal has changed too many times for me to keep track. I know they would need to accelerate his bonus which at one point was $30M over five years.

 

[mayoclinic]

Mayo,
I cringe to even ask but.... I'm having this weird feeling Tom Brady is going to be the starting QB for the LA RAMS in 2016. I've thought long and hard about his restructure, what it would mean and where he would most likely go. In LA. he and Giselle would be in a world class city and he could really the sell the crap out of his Uggs and TB12 brands... and of course he could make twice what he makes here in salary. Not that it's all about money for them but I really can't see them living in Houston or Tennessee or something like that.
The Rams are a QB away from being very good in two years, assuming they can acquire and develop some receivers. Tavon Austin aint gonna cut it but Quick may be serviceable.

what is the dead money cap hit and cap savings in the "off" chance Brady gets cut/traded in 2015 or 2016? The deal has changed too many times for me to keep track. I know they would need to accelerate his bonus which at one point was $30M over five years.

Tom Brady is under contract through 2017. He isn't going anywhere unless the Pats want to move on, and I personally don't see that happening.

 

[mayoclinic]

FWIW, Miguel has outlined some potential re-signing predictions for Pats FAs:

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=1077?sc=rss

Miguel lists Develin as an ERFA, which should make him a bit cheaper than what I projected. Miguel also has different projections regarding Ridley and Connolly (re-signed, where I have them moving on) and Vereen, Branch and Ayers (moving on, where I have them re-signed). Miguel's re-signing hit for Pat Chung also seems low to me ($1.2M 2015 cap hit).

 

[mayoclinic]

A lot depends on how things play out with re-signings and FA, but if things go anywhere near as outlined in the OP then I'd be very, very strongly inclined to look for a DT in round 1. Right now there are 3 potential guys (2 still undeclared, though rumored to be coming out) who I think could be legitimate successors to VW:

1. Eddie Goldman, Florida St.. 6'4" 320#. Athletic enough that he played DE last year. Very strong, but with explosiveness and athleticism. I sort of think of him as a fusion of Haloti Ngata and Ndamukong Suh, though maybe not quite at the level of those guys.

2. Jordan Phillips, Oklahoma. 6'6" 334#. I think he's another Dontari Poe in terms of size, strength and athleticism. A true NT with outstanding atheticism, and the ability to play DT as well.

3. Malcolm Brown, Texas. 6'2" 320#. Not quite as athletic as Goldman, but a very physical guy who dominate interior linemen.

I really like these 3 guys. I rate them on a par or slightly ahead of OLs TJ Clemmings, La'el Collins, Brandon Scherff and Cam Erving, and DE/OLBs Danielle Hunter, Dante Fowler and Bud Dupree.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I like to go by CBS rankings when I do my mocks. Matt Miller has a new big-board out today.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-millers-post-regular-season-big-board/page/2

Miller has Brown at 24 and Goldman at 36. I'd take either at 32. I would go edge-rusher if we lose Akers next. My last mock had Markus Golden at 64. He's 66 on his big board. Could also go Trey Flowers if we want more of a pure 4-3 de.

I think we can get guards late in the 3rd and early 4th. I'd double dip. Jarvis Harrison and Laken Tomlinson. He's got Cann 71, Matias 98 and Kouandijo 114.

Then, I went Kroft-TE and Shaw-CB in the 4th. He has both available. I went Smelter and Hull in the 6th and 7th. Would have to reverse them with his rankings. In fact, Smelter isn't on his or cbs rankings. I'm wondering if UDFA for him because of the knee injury.

 

[AzorianPats]

I like to go by CBS rankings when I do my mocks. Matt Miller has a new big-board out today.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-millers-post-regular-season-big-board/page/2

Miller has Brown at 24 and Goldman at 36. I'd take either at 32. I would go edge-rusher if we lose Akers next. My last mock had Markus Golden at 64. He's 66 on his big board. Could also go Trey Flowers if we want more of a pure 4-3 de.

I think we can get guards late in the 3rd and early 4th. I'd double dip. Jarvis Harrison and Laken Tomlinson. He's got Cann 71, Matias 98 and Kouandijo 114.

Then, I went Kroft-TE and Shaw-CB in the 4th. He has both available. I went Smelter and Hull in the 6th and 7th. Would have to reverse them with his rankings. In fact, Smelter isn't on his or cbs rankings. I'm wondering if UDFA for him because of the knee injury.

According to that bleacher report card DeForest Buckner from Oregon coming out this draft? Is that accurate?

 

[mayoclinic]

According to that bleacher report card DeForest Buckner from Oregon coming out this draft? Is that accurate?

Everything I've heard says that he is going back.

 

[AzorianPats]

Everything I've heard says that he is going back.

That's what I heard also. If he does come out this year. Sign me up! He was dominate in the Rose Bowl!

 

[mayoclinic]

Vince Wilfork's $8.9M cap hit is one of the big elephants in the room for the Pats for next season. Wilfork is due a $4M roster bonus if he is on the Pats' roster the first day of the 2015 league year, per Miguel:

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=1083?sc=rss

Wilfork's play has been good enough this year that the Pats are going to probably just have to suck it up and pay the man. Dante Scarnecchia recently lauded Wilfork's performance this year, and put him along with Brady, Gronk and Revis among the most indispensable players on the team:

Scarnecchia marveled at Wilfork's contributions this season and how he's played such a high percentage of snaps -- and played them well -- coming off a ruptured Achilles (73.9) that limited him to four games last season. He then explained Wilfork's value as an interior rock in the middle of the defense, speaking from the perspective of a coach who knows how challenging it can be to block a player like that.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...d/4775635/no-overlooking-vince-wilforks-value

Reiss had this to say on the subject in today's mailbag:

Q. Mike, do you think the Pats will pay the $4 million roster bonus due to Vince Wilfork in March? -- Laurie (Moncton, Canada)

A. Laurie, I have some doubts on that. It makes me wonder if the sides might be back at the negotiating table again this offseason.

http://espn.go.com/boston/story/_/page/reissmailbagweek0106/facing-ravens-worst-case-scenario

It's hard for me to see Wilfork taking a payout, and I'd be loathe to do anything that pushes more guaranteed money into 2016 (currently only $433K is guaranteed for 2016). At this point my early "backdraft" template includes keeping Wilfork for 2015, and drafting a successor for 2016.

 

[mayoclinic]

Some alternatives to Noah Spence with our 3rd round comp pick would include Owamagbe Odighizuwa and Max Valles. Values, a RS sophomore from Virginia, just declared. He is a 6'5" 240# former TE with terrific athleticism who would excel in space.

 

[mayoclinic]

Some alternatives to Noah Spence with our 3rd round comp pick would include Owamagbe Odighizuwa and Max Valles. Values, a RS sophomore from Virginia, just declared. He is a 6'5" 240# former TE with terrific athleticism who would excel in space.

I'm actually going to update my draft from the OP, partly because I doubt Cam Erving will be within tradeup range in the 2nd round, partly because I really like some players who have declared since the OP was written:

***Trade: Pats trade 1st (32) and 3rd (96) round picks to move up to around 24-25 in the 1st round.
1st (24-25). Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida St. 6'4" 320#. A cross between Ndamukong Suh and Haloti Ngata. He'll be a stud anchoring the interior of the DL for a long time. If Goldman is out of reach, then Jordan Phillips or Malcolm Brown would be worthy alternatives.
2nd (64). Max Valles, DE/OLB, Virginia. 6'5" 240#. Collinsesque, and only 19.
3rd (97 - comp). Jeremiah Poutasi, OL, Utah. 6'6" 320#. Or Donovan Smith, OL, Penn St. 6'5" 330#. If the Pats sign an OL like Clint Boling or James Carpenter then they can wait until the 3rd to take an OL, in a very deep group.
4th(101) (from TB). [Traded to NO for S Kenny Vaccaro; otherwise used to draft the best DB available.]
4th(around 130). Jesse James, TE, Penn St. 6'6" 255#. Freakish athleticism and upside, if he has the inner fire. Or Jeff Heuerman, TE, Ohio St. 6'5" 260#.
6th (from TB). DeAndre Smelter, WR, Georgia Tech. 6'3" 222#. Gets a red shirt year to recover from his ACL tear.
6th (comp). Josh Robinson, RB, Mississippi St. 5'9" 222#. "The human bowling ball."
7th (from Tenn). Tre McBride, WR, William & Mary. 6'1" 205#. Will compete with Tyms and Boyce for a roster spot.

 

[mayoclinic]

That's what I heard also. If he does come out this year. Sign me up! He was dominate in the Rose Bowl!

He's a stud. If he comes out he will be very high on my list. There are so many darn good defensive linemen in this draft (with a few of them still not official):

- Eddie Goldman
- Jordan Phillips
- Malcolm Brown
[- DeForest Buckner]
- Danielle Collins
- Bud Dupree
- Dante Fowler
- Max Valles
- Noah Spence
- Owamagbe Odighizuwa
- Mario Edwards

I think we're 2 good rotational guys away from having as good a front 7 as any in the league, and we already have one of the best LB groups and secondaries. I'll be giddy if we get a couple of the guys listed above.

 

[AzorianPats]

He's a stud. If he comes out he will be very high on my list. There are so many darn good defensive linemen in this draft (with a few of them still not official):

- Eddie Goldman
- Jordan Phillips
- Malcolm Brown
[- DeForest Buckner]
- Danielle Collins
- Bud Dupree
- Dante Fowler
- Max Valles
- Noah Spence
- Owamagbe Odighizuwa
- Mario Edwards

I think we're 2 good rotational guys away from having as good a front 7 as any in the league, and we already have one of the best LB groups and secondaries. I'll be giddy if we get a couple of the guys listed above.

Don't forget Armstead!

 

[mayoclinic]

Accountability check. From the OP:

Pre-FA Trade vs. Re-Signings:

I would offer the Pats early 4th round pick from TB to New Orleans for DB Kenny Vaccaro. Vaccaro has 2 years left on his rookie deal. He would be a perfect fit as a hybrid S/LB/slot CB for the Pats. He was benched twice this season, partly over mis-use as a classic SS. I don't know if he can be gotten, but I'd make a run at him. If it doesn't work out, then I'd re-sign Pat Chung for something around 3 years/$8M with $3M guaranteed and a 2015 cap hit of about $2.5M, similar to Vaccaro's 2015 hit.

The Pats have now re-signed Pat Chung to a 3 year/$8M deal with $3.4M guaranteed, with a $2.4M signing bonus. Base salaries of $1, $1.4 and $1.8M. $200K roster bonus in each season, and an additional $500K in incentives. 2015 cap hit should be around $2M+ ($1M base + $800K pro-rated signing bonus + $200 K roster bonus + any incentives reached). I still like the idea of Vaccaro, but that was always a long shot; re-signing Chung was much more realistic. If I were the Pats I would have at least explored that option before re-signing Chung. I don't know if that happened. But overall, I'd say I was reasonably accurate with the predicted contract value of a Chung re-signing and of a starting hybrid safety.

Brandon Bolden also re-signed, for a 2 year deal reportedly worth $2.32M with $300K guaranteed and a $300K signing bonus. Base of $660K in 2015 and $760K in 2016. Roster bonus of $200K in 2016 and $350K in 2016. 2016 cap hit of around $810-1010K; 2017 cap hit of around $910-1260K.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...849/patriots-sign-brandon-bolden-to-extension

I did not predict that one.

Re-addressing the projected players under contract prior to the 2015 draft (and using the lower 2015 cap hit values for Chung and Bolden for now):

Players Under Contract Prior to the 2015 Draft:

1. CB Darrelle Revis ($16M with new deal)
2. QB Tom Brady ($9M after restructure to move base salary into signing bonus)
3. DT Vince Wilfork ($9M)
4. TE Rob Gronkowsku ($8.65M)
5. OT Sebastian Vollmer ($7M after a 1 year extension and restructuring)
6. LB Jerod Mayo ($6.2M after restructuring as proposed by Miguel)
7. OT Nate Solder ($5.5M 2015 cap hit on a long term deal)
8. DB Devin McCourty ($5M 2015 cap hit on a long term deal)
9. WR Julian Edelman ($4.15M)
10. OL Clint Boling/James Carpenter ($4M 2015 cap hit on a long term deal)
11. CB Brandon Browner ($3.8M after a 1 year extension and restructuring)
12. DE/OLB Rob Ninkovich ($3.7M)
13. CB Kyle Arrington ($3.625M after a 1 year extension and restructuring)
14. WR Brandon LaFell ($3.5M)
15. WR Eddie Royal (3.5M 2015 cap hit on a long term deal)
16. K Stephen Gostkowski ($3M)
17. DE/OLB Akeem Ayers ($2.625M 2015 cap hit on a long term deal)
18. OL Marcus Cannon ($2.62M)
19. DE Chandler Jones ($2.6M)
20. RB Shane Vereen ($2.5M)
21. LB Dont'a Hightower ($2.45M)
22. DB Pat Chung ($2M + incentives).
23. ST Matt Slater ($1.75M)
24. DT/DE Dominique Easley ($1.66M)
25. OL Ryan Wendell ($1.6M)
26. TE Michael Hoomanawanui ($1.58M)
27. CB Alfonzo Dennard ($1.5M)
28. DT Alan Branch ($1.5M)
29. S Tavon Wilson ($1.35M)
30. LB Jonathan Casillas ($1.33M)
31. LB Jamie Collins ($1M)
32. WR Aaron Dobson ($935K)
33. RB/ST Brandon Bolden ($810K + roster bonuses)
34. RB LeGarrette Blount ($745K)
35. CB Logan Ryan ($745K)
36. S Duron Harmon ($725K)
37. QB Jimmy Garoppolo ($715K)
38. FB/H-Back James Develin $700K)
39. S/ST Nate Ebner ($685K)
40. DT Sealver Siliga ($660K)
41. RB James White ($610K)
42. DE Michael Buchanan ($600K)
43. TE Tim Wright ($585K)
44. WR Brian Tyms ($585K)
45. OL Cameron Fleming ($585K)
46. OL Bryan Stork ($585K)
47. OL Josh Kline ($585K)
48. DT Chris Jones ($585K)
49. DT Antonio Johnson ($585K)
50 DE Jake Bequette ($585K)
51. LB Darius Fleming ($585K)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
52. ST Ryan Allen ($585K)
53. RB Deion Lewis ($585K)
54. DE Zach Moore ($535K)
55. WR Josh Boyce ($510K)
56. RB Jonas Gray ($510K)
57. RB Tyler Gaffney ($510K)
58. OL Jordan Devey ($510K)
59. OL Chris Barker ($510K)
60. OL Caylin Hauptmann ($510K)
61. LB Cameron Gordon ($510K
62.[LB James Morris ($510K)
63. LB Deontae Skinner ($510K)
64. CB Malcolm Butler ($510K)
65. QB Garrett Gilbert ($435K)
66. WR Greg Orton ($435K)
67. DE Rufus Johnson ($435K)
68. S Justin Green ($435K)
69. CB Daxton Swanson ($435K)

Total cap hit (69 players): $145.9M
Top 51 cap hit: $137.5M
Dead space: $4.6M
Total 2015 cap commitment: $150.5M

Note that Chung's deal is slightly lower than what I had listed using Vaccaro's 2015 cap hit, and Bolden's deal only adds a few hundred thousand over the previous 51st player's cap hit, so the net result is an slight increase in total cap commitment but a slight decrease in the top 51.[/COLOR]

 

[manxman2601]

2. Sign DE/OLB Akeem Ayers to a 4 year/$16M extension with $7.5M guaranteed and a $6.5M signing bonus. Essentially the same deal that Kyle Arrington got in 2013. Base salaries+incentives of $1M, $2M, $3M and $3.5M. 2015 cap hit: $2.625M.

I'm not commenting as to the accuracy or not of this prediction but just using this as a sequel into noting that in the three games since Chandler Jones has returned (I'm not including Jones' first game back against the Dolphins), Akeem Ayers has had just 30 snaps in those three games. And that number is skewed by a 24 snap game against the Bills. Even in that game, Ayers only rushed the passer 7 times. He had five snaps against the Jets and just one snap last night. Starting to wonder just how much value BB will place on re-signing Ayers.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm not commenting as to the accuracy or not of this prediction but just using this as a sequel into noting that in the three games since Chandler Jones has returned (I'm not including Jones' first game back against the Dolphins), Akeem Ayers has had just 30 snaps in those three games. And that number is skewed by a 24 snap game against the Bills. Even in that game, Ayers only rushed the passer 7 times. He had five snaps against the Jets and just one snap last night. Starting to wonder just how much value BB will place on re-signing Ayers.

That's certainly something to follow, though I think that BB was influenced by the run-heavy Ravens. I also note that the pass rush was anemic yesterday - more Ayers might have been a good thing.