My Blueprint for the Defense

[All22PatsFan]

I don't understand what the bolded statement means. Please clarify.

I'd be happy for the Pats to include Everson Griffin in the FA DE mix. He was someone rumored to be of interest to them in 2010. There are reports, however, that he turned down an extension offer from the Vikings earlier this year and wants to be paid rather exorbitantly.

As I've said elsewhere, Tommy Kelly could potentially be a cap or numbers casualty, but I see no need to make any hasty moves with him. As for Siliga starting at NT, that will depend on competition in training camp, which we can't project at this point. If he earns the starting job he earns it, but I don't see it being handed to him.

I see how this was confusing. I'm saying that if we add Joseph, a FA DE and Talib. I think we would need to fill some needs offensively though the draft. A Guard, WR (replacement to Edelman), RB and a TE.

 

[mayoclinic]

I see how this was confusing. I'm saying that if we add Joseph, a FA DE and Talib. I think we would need to fill some needs offensively though the draft. A Guard, WR (replacement to Edelman), RB and a TE.

Thanks for the clarification. I didn't understand what you meant at all.

Although this is a defensive thread, I'm certainly not advocating that the Pats ignore the offense. My personal take:

- I think LeGarrette Blount re-signs. Toby Gerhart could be a reasonable cost alternative if the market for Blount is out of the Pats' price range.
- I think Julian Edelman will be priced out of the Pats' range, and there is too much redundancy with Edelman. I think the Pats sign a lower-cost WR with more complementary skills. Jeremy Maclin, Riley Cooper, Miles Austin (post June 1 cut) or Sidney Rice (likely cap cut) could be options, depending on the price.
- I think the team lets Wendell walk. Connolly stays for now, and could move to center.
- A UFA interior OL could be signed depending on the $$$ situation, though is not a certainly. Alex Mack is an extreme long shot. Jon Asamoah or Rodger Saffold could be good price performers.
- I am hoping that the team signs a moderate-price veteran TE like Brandon Pettigrew or Scott Chandler. Jermaine Gresham and Marcedes Lewis are potential cap casualties who could be of interest as well, depending on the price. If no FA TE is signed, TE becomes an increased priority in the draft.

Depending on what happens in FA, I see interior and OL as the two offensive areas that are most likely to be addressed in the draft. I think the Pats will have to be selective in balancing and prioritizing their offensive and defensive needs and finding the best values available.

 

[mayoclinic]

The odd part about this is you actually like some defensive players who fit my point of view more than I do.

A lot of Manx's defensive binkies - including but not limited to DTs Aaron Donald and Caraun Reid, LBs Ryan Shazier, Kyle Van Noy, Marcus Smith and Tyler Starr, and DBs Kyle Fuller and Antone Exum - would fit perfectly into the kind of defense that works from my "point of view".

 

[Huckleberry1]

1. Need a change of attitude and approach.

The Pats' D comes from the top, and it's just not adequate in today's NFL. Too passive, too soft. The defense needs to get much more physical and play with an attitude and with controlled rage. Aqib Talib brought some much-needed swagger to a demoralized secondary, and that kind of attitude is needed on all 3 levels.

I have serious questions that Matt Patricia executing BB's strategy is going to get us to the next level. I like bringing in some fresh blood (Brandon Daly is by all accounts very intense, and that is needed). I wish we had brought in someone like from the outside like Ray Horton or Jim Schwartz who could provide a strong presence on defense that we haven't had since Romeo left.

.

I don't think Patricia is the problem at all. I had the exact same complaint about Dean Pees and once he went to Baltimore it became clear that he would have been much more aggressive had he been given the leeway to do so. The philosophical change has to come from Belichick, it isn't his coordinators who are making that decision, they are just implementing the defense the way he wants it played. I agree completely that a change in philosophy to a more simplified attacking defense is needed but I believe that if Belichick told Patricia that's what he wanted then we would see just that next season. If Belichick told Patricia to attack and he failed to get that done he would be gone in a heartbeat, just as he would be if Belichick told him to play read and react and he ignored him and told them to get after the QB and ignore the chipping,protecting the edge, and dropping into coverage.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't think Patricia is the problem at all. I had the exact same ycomplaint about Dean Pees and once he went to Baltimore it became clear that he would have been much more aggressive had he been given the leeway to do so. The philosophical change has to come from Belichick, it isn't his coordinators who are making that decision, they are just implementing the defense the way he wants it played. I agree completely that a change in philosophy to a more simplified attacking defense is needed but I believe that if Belichick told Patricia that's what he wanted then we would see just that next season. If Belichick told Patricia to attack and he failed to get that done he would be gone in a heartbeat, just as he would be if Belichick told him to play read and react and he ignored him and told them to get after the QB and ignore the chipping,protecting the edge, and dropping into coverage.

Good point. I also noticed how much more aggressive Pees has been with Baltimore.

 

[Huckleberry1]

- Add depth to the DL.

Unless they plan on having Jones bulk up and move inside, which i seriously doubt then we won't be seeing any high priced pass rushing DE's coming to New England, so any upgrades are going to have to come inside, and when we are seriously talking about releasing Wilfork the idea of upgrading is difficult at best as they will be losing one of the best DT's in football. I understand that may not really be by choice as he may never retrun to form but it will still be a major loss. Silinga and Chris Jones were finds in the middle of the season, which is basically unheard of, and they will provide them with quality depth but if they are going to really upgrade the interior DL they will have to sign a really good DT and draft one as well. Hopefully they can find a way to keep Wilfork around and he can come back to a high level of play but that is going to be a big question mark for the time being. I agree with trying to keep Tommy Kelly around but that will come down to the numbers. Linval Joseph or Arthur Jones would be high quality DT's to pursue and I think that should be a free agency priority. If they can't address it there then it will become much more of a draft priority and I can see DT ranking with TE as a priority come May.


DT-Silinga and Chris Jones will return. Tommy Kelly will be asked to restructure and Wilfork will be required to restructure if not released. I have no idea why anyone is counting on Armstead as he has not shown anything yet that would support him being a factor in the NFL, if he does then it will be a bonus. They need to add 2 high quality DT's, one free agency and one draft would be optimal. There are too many question marks at this position right now to have much confidence in until they are answered.

 

[everlong]

A lot of Manx's defensive binkies - including but not limited to DTs Aaron Donald and Caraun Reid, LBs Ryan Shazier, Kyle Van Noy, Marcus Smith and Tyler Starr, and DBs Kyle Fuller and Antone Exum - would fit perfectly into the kind of defense that works from my "point of view".

He needs to come out of the pressure defense closet.

 

[mayoclinic]

2 weeks and 275 posts later, I'm still in roughly the same place as when this thread started:

- Get more physical and aggressive on the overall defensive approach, without necessarily giving up discipline and some of the basic principles which have defined BB's defensive philosophy in the past.

- Add depth to the DL.

- Get bigger and more physical in the secondary.

- Add speed and playmaking at all 3 levels.

Right now I think the Pats will go into FA with about $3-4M to spend, depending on where the league-wide cap actually comes in. Between now and the start of free agency I would augment that with the following:

- Early extensions for Devin McCourty, Stephen Gostkowski and Matt Slater. Those should free up around $3M.
- Cut Vince Wilfork, Isaac Sapoaga and Adrian Wilson. Those 3 cuts should free up about $11.5M+.

That would give the Pats around $18M to spend, maybe a bit more. Decisions on Dan Connolly, Steve Gregory and Tommy Kelly can wait.

Prior to the draft I'd like to do the following on defense:

1. Re-sign Aqib Talib. Priority #1. I assume his 2014 cap hit can be kept to around $5M based on previous deals in the projected range (about $7M/year AAV).

2. Sign a UFA DT. My preference is Linval Joseph. Some people like Arthur Jones. I'm hoping the 2014 cap hit can be kept to around $4M.

3. Sign a moderately-priced UFA DE. I don't think Greg Hardy, Michael Johnson or Michael Bennett are realistic options. Jared Allen is a longshot, but he could opt to take a low cost incentive-based contract to play with a contender. Corey Wootton seems like the most realistic effective option to me. Will Smith may not have much left in the tank, but could be this year's Andre Carter.

4. Hopefully re-sign Dane Fletcher for depth at LB. Low cost move.

Those moves would solidify the team at all 3 levels going into the draft:

- DE: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, FA veteran (call it Wootton for now, with Allen a long shot), Michael Buchanan. Armond Armstead, Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower can also play DE at times.
- DT: FA veteran (call it Linval Joseph for now), Tommy Kelly, Armond Armstead, Sealver Siliga, Chris Jones.
- LB: Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Dane Fletcher.
- S: Devin McCouty, Steve Gregory, Duron Harmon, Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner.
- CB: Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard, Logan Ryan, Kyle Arrington.

That would allow the Pats to find the best value and fit in the draft to upgrade the overall talent/athleticism level and add depth, without being under pressure to find immediate starters or plug gaping holes. Potential targets might include:

- A penetrating DT along the lines of Timmy Jernigan, Aaron Donald, Dominique Easley, Will Sutton or Caraun Reid.
- A run stopping NT along the lines of Louis Nix, Justin Ellis or Zach Kerr.
- More depth and versatility at DL along the lines of Ra'Shede Hageman, Trent Murphy, Stephon Tuitt, Aaron Lynch, Brent Urban or Taylor Hart.
- A LB with athleticism and coverage ability along the lines of Ryan Shazier, Kyle Van Noy, Marcus Smith, Christian Jones or Tyler Starr.
- A physical safety along the lines of Calvin Pryor or Deone Buccannon.
- Big DBs who can play press-man or possibly safety along the lines of Stanley Jean-Baptiste, Kyle Fuller, Antone Exum, Dontae Johnson and Jonathan Dowling.

Any combination of those would potentially significantly upgrade the defense.

Thinking about this some more, pre-Combine I think I'm roughly at this point:

1. Cut Wilfork and Sapoaga. Frees up $10-11M in cap space. Wilfork is the big decision, but I really don't see him being able to play at anything near his previous level for at least another year, and the cap hit is crippling if he can't perform.

2. Sign a UFA DE to rotate with Jones and Ninkovich. This is a bit of a change from my original perspective. I think that the Pats need someone they can trust to come in right away and play a considerable number of meaningful snaps and be productive, and that probably isn't a rookie, especially given how shallow the draft is at the outside pass rusher position. Adding a day 3 rookie like Aaron Lynch, Will Clarke, Taylor Hart or Brent Urban would then give the Pats a really strong 5 man rotation (with Buchanan as the other option). Greg Hardy will be paid big, and won't be an option. Michael Johnson will probably be paid big; if the market is soft for him, I'd be all for it. Corey Wootton is probably my most realistic target and best price-performer.

3. I'm still fully on the Linval Joseph bandwagon if he's available for the right price, but he's really my only UFA target at DT. There's a lot of depth in the draft if he isn't available within the right price range.

4. I really like a lot of guys who are day 3 targets right now, but who have the possibility of rising: DTs Caraun Reid and Justin Ellis, DEs Aaron Lynch, Will Clarke, Taylor Hart and Brent Urban, LB Tyler Starr (and possibly Ronald Powell), DBs Antone Exum, Dontae Johnson, Jonathan Dowling and Aaron Colvin. I think you could get a very good defensive draft out of those guys alone. A lot will depend on how much they rise, but given the depth and talent of this draft, some of them will be available at very good value.

5. My day 1-2 defensive targets has dwindled a fair amount: DTs Aaron Donald, Timmy Jernigan and Ra'Shede Hageman, LBs Ryan Shazier, Kyle Van Noy, Marcus Smith and Christian Jones, S's Calvin Pryor and Deone Buchanan, CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste, DB Kyle Fuller.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

Thinking about this some more, pre-Combine I think I'm roughly at this point:

1. Cut Wilfork and Sapoaga. Frees up $10-11M in cap space. Wilfork is the big decision, but I really don't see him being able to play at anything near his previous level for at least another year, and the cap hit is crippling if he can't perform.

2. Sign a UFA DE to rotate with Jones and Ninkovich. This is a bit of a change from my original perspective. I think that the Pats need someone they can trust to come in right away and play a considerable number of meaningful snaps and be productive, and that probably isn't a rookie, especially given how shallow the draft is at the outside pass rusher position. Adding a day 3 rookie like Aaron Lynch, Will Clarke, Taylor Hart or Brent Urban would then give the Pats a really strong 5 man rotation (with Buchanan as the other option). Greg Hardy will be paid big, and won't be an option. Michael Johnson will probably be paid big; if the market is soft for him, I'd be all for it. Corey Wootton is probably my most realistic target and best price-performer.

3. I'm still fully on the Linval Joseph bandwagon if he's available for the right price, but he's really my only UFA target at DT. There's a lot of depth in the draft if he isn't available within the right price range.

4. I really like a lot of guys who are day 3 targets right now, but who have the possibility of rising: DTs Caraun Reid and Justin Ellis, DEs Aaron Lynch, Will Clarke, Taylor Hart and Brent Urban, LB Tyler Starr (and possibly Ronald Powell), DBs Antone Exum, Dontae Johnson, Jonathan Dowling and Aaron Colvin. I think you could get a very good defensive draft out of those guys alone. A lot will depend on how much they rise, but given the depth and talent of this draft, some of them will be available at very good value.

5. My day 1-2 defensive targets has dwindled a fair amount: DTs Aaron Donald, Timmy Jernigan and Ra'Shede Hageman, LBs Ryan Shazier, Kyle Van Noy, Marcus Smith and Christian Jones, S's Calvin Pryor and Deone Buchanan, CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste, DB Kyle Fuller.

Good thoughts.

Like you, I'm impressed by the depth of the class in general - particularly with tight ends, standup edge players, 3-techs, and big defensive backs. There's a lot of tweenerish players coming out this year who have useful well defined roles in the eternal sub package that is the contemporary NFL.

I'm also not really interested in the late 1st round as far as value is concerned. I don't feel like the top of the draft is strong enough to bump any first tier talent our way, except for players whose fit in the puzzle might be questionable (Shazier and move DH/Collins onto the line?).

Last thought: the draft prostignator in me feels like Lynch and Urban are just as likely to go on day 1 as they are on day 3.

I don't see why Lynch isn't the #2 base end in the draft right now. Its not like he's unproven, he's proven he can be great at ND and showed some of those qualities at USF despite being underweight. His hands are fantastic. You know how coaches are with talent - surely someone's going to say "I'm the one who can make this kid a star".

As for Urban, he needs to have a good combine, but if he does, what is there not to like? He plays through blockers like he's 300+ lbs, so he has legitimate 5-tech potential, and he has visible pass rushing upside.

Obviously I hope they both fall and we get them both.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I'm also not really interested in the late 1st round as far as value is concerned. I don't feel like the top of the draft is strong enough to bump any first tier talent our way, except for players whose fit in the puzzle might be questionable (Shazier and move DH/Collins onto the line?).

Jamie Collins is 235 lbs., he isn't going to be a defensive lineman in the NFL. Hightower has almost enough size but they would be better off having him drop a few lbs. and take over for Spikes in the middle.

 

[Huckleberry1]

2. Sign a UFA DE to rotate with Jones and Ninkovich. This is a bit of a change from my original perspective. I think that the Pats need someone they can trust to come in right away and play a considerable number of meaningful snaps and be productive, and that probably isn't a rookie, especially given how shallow the draft is at the outside pass rusher position. Adding a day 3 rookie like Aaron Lynch, Will Clarke, Taylor Hart or Brent Urban would then give the Pats a really strong 5 man rotation (with Buchanan as the other option). Greg Hardy will be paid big, and won't be an option. Michael Johnson will probably be paid big; if the market is soft for him, I'd be all for it. Corey Wootton is probably my most realistic target and best price-performer.

I would like to see them add another pass rushing DE but i think it is more likely to be a guy like Will Smith at a lower cost than any of the player's who will command 3-4 million a year +. They were fortunate that Jones and Ninkovich were able to play the full season and cannot count on that again next season, they need another starting caliber DE but i believe that with both under contract the next few seasons they will focus inside instead. Bequette busting really hurts but hopefully Buchanon can offset that and show serious improvement next season.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

Jamie Collins is 235 lbs., he isn't going to be a defensive lineman in the NFL. Hightower has almost enough size but they would be better off having him drop a few lbs. and take over for Spikes in the middle.

Collins was 250 at the combine. And given the high cut of his frame, the notion that he could go from 250 to 260, were that consistent with the team's vision for him, is perfectly reasonable.

He could never be Chandler Jones but Kam Wimbley is considered a DE, is he not? He's got comparable qualities as a player to Collins. In college he was a edge defender who lined up in a 2-pt stance and he could certainly reprise that role if asked.

The real question is whether or not its his best fit, not if he can do it or not. And that's the cool thing about Collins - both as a fan and the coach who gets to develop him. Edge rusher? Strongside LB? Weakside LB? Its like a choose your own adventure.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

I would like to see them add another pass rushing DE but i think it is more likely to be a guy like Will Smith at a lower cost than any of the player's who will command 3-4 million a year +. They were fortunate that Jones and Ninkovich were able to play the full season and cannot count on that again next season, they need another starting caliber DE but i believe that with both under contract the next few seasons they will focus inside instead. Bequette busting really hurts but hopefully Buchanon can offset that and show serious improvement next season.

That Chandler Jones and Ninkovich need less reps is a big problem indeed.

Will Smith probably isn't the guy you're looking for. He's more of a base end than an edge rusher, and his best sack totals came in seasons where he could play high snap counts and get those effort sacks.

As for Bequette and Buchanan, they might both amount to nothing but they represent more in-house talent at developmental edge rusher than we've had in many of our recent offseasons. Overall, you probably aren't going to get the right guy on the FA market I think. Hard for players who are worth it to take the reduction in role unfortunately.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

3. I'm still fully on the Linval Joseph bandwagon if he's available for the right price, but he's really my only UFA target at DT. There's a lot of depth in the draft if he isn't available within the right price range.

What is your plan B if you can't get Joseph?

 

[Huckleberry1]

Collins was 250 at the combine. And given the high cut of his frame, the notion that he could go from 250 to 260, were that consistent with the team's vision for him, is perfectly reasonable.

He could never be Chandler Jones but Kam Wimbley is considered a DE, is he not? He's got comparable qualities as a player to Collins. In college he was a edge defender who lined up in a 2-pt stance and he could certainly reprise that role if asked.

The real question is whether or not its his best fit, not if he can do it or not. And that's the cool thing about Collins - both as a fan and the coach who gets to develop him. Edge rusher? Strongside LB? Weakside LB? Its like a choose your own adventure.

We'll have to disagree on Collins, I don't think he has anywhere near the build to play DE. I love him as both a pass rusher and a cover LB for TE's and backs coming out of the backfield, and i think he's going to become a star for them but bulking him up to try and play DE would kill off his greatest assets imo.

 

[Huckleberry1]

As for Bequette and Buchanan, they might both amount to nothing but they represent more in-house talent at developmental edge rusher than we've had in many of our recent offseasons. Overall, you probably aren't going to get the right guy on the FA market I think. Hard for players who are worth it to take the reduction in role unfortunately.

Bequette can only be considered a bust at this point. I am really patient with young players and give them the IBBWT treatment until they prove without a doubt they will not contribute, and Bequette has cleared that bar easily.


I have hopes for Buchanon but like most young player's it will come down to how bad he wants it and how hard he is willing to work for it. He appears to have the talent but obviously needs to get much better.

 

[Huckleberry1]

What is your plan B if you can't get Joseph?

I would be fine with Joseph but would prefer Arthur Jones to pair with his brother, and that may help some when Chandler Jones is considering free agency. However if they cannot get either then I would try to convince Henry Melton to do a one year deal with incentives and a promise not to franchise, and i would point to the success of other player's in coming to New England to increase their contract value. He would have a shot at a ring, plenty of time in prime time, and a good young defense around him as well as Belichick coaching him.

If they cannot get one of the better free agents then Plan B comes into effect and they have to go after releases from other team's and prioritize DT in the 2014 Draft.

 

[mayoclinic]

Good thoughts.

Like you, I'm impressed by the depth of the class in general - particularly with tight ends, standup edge players, 3-techs, and big defensive backs. There's a lot of tweenerish players coming out this year who have useful well defined roles in the eternal sub package that is the contemporary NFL.

I'm also not really interested in the late 1st round as far as value is concerned. I don't feel like the top of the draft is strong enough to bump any first tier talent our way, except for players whose fit in the puzzle might be questionable (Shazier and move DH/Collins onto the line?).

Last thought: the draft prostignator in me feels like Lynch and Urban are just as likely to go on day 1 as they are on day 3.

I don't see why Lynch isn't the #2 base end in the draft right now. Its not like he's unproven, he's proven he can be great at ND and showed some of those qualities at USF despite being underweight. His hands are fantastic. You know how coaches are with talent - surely someone's going to say "I'm the one who can make this kid a star".

As for Urban, he needs to have a good combine, but if he does, what is there not to like? He plays through blockers like he's 300+ lbs, so he has legitimate 5-tech potential, and he has visible pass rushing upside.

Obviously I hope they both fall and we get them both.

Jamie Collins is 235 lbs., he isn't going to be a defensive lineman in the NFL. Hightower has almost enough size but they would be better off having him drop a few lbs. and take over for Spikes in the middle.

Collins currently plays at about 250#, pretty much the same weight as he was at the Combine a year ago. That's too light to be a full time line player, and I also think that role would diminish his versatility and usefulness. I've always projected Collins as a guy who plays primarily in space, but who can move up on the line on occasion as a sub-rusher or in a speed oriented defense.

Right now the draft picks have yet to settle out. Urban and Lynch could easily rise up, among many others. Lynch as a day 1 pick would probably be a bit of a stretch, given his change of teams, immaturity issues, off-field issues, and his tape from the past year at USF, but stranger things have happened, and day 2 is quite possible. I'm guessing 3rd round with someone reaching on him in the 2nd, but it's still early.

I agree that two of the defensive strengths of this year's draft is the "standup edge players" and the 3-techs. I'd probably add big DBs as the 3rd area of strength.

- Stand-up edge players: Anthony Barr, Khalil Mack, Ryan Shazier, Kyle Van Noy, Marcus Smith, Christian Jones, Jeremiah Attoachu, Carl Bradford, Demarcus Lawrence, Tyler Starr, Ronald Powell.

- 3-techs: Aaron Donald, Timmy Jernigan, Ra'Shede Hageman, Dominique Easley, Will Sutton, Kelcy Quarles, Anthony Johnson, Caraun Reid.

- Big DBs (6' 195# or bigger): Justin Gilbert, Marcus Roberson, Stanley Jean-Baptiste, Keith McGill, Kyle Fuller, Louichez Purifoy, Pierre Desir, Antone Exum, Dontae Johnson, Jonathan Dowling.

 

[Deus Irae]

Collins was 250 at the combine. And given the high cut of his frame, the notion that he could go from 250 to 260, were that consistent with the team's vision for him, is perfectly reasonable.

He could never be Chandler Jones but Kam Wimbley is considered a DE, is he not? He's got comparable qualities as a player to Collins. In college he was a edge defender who lined up in a 2-pt stance and he could certainly reprise that role if asked.

The real question is whether or not its his best fit, not if he can do it or not. And that's the cool thing about Collins - both as a fan and the coach who gets to develop him. Edge rusher? Strongside LB? Weakside LB? Its like a choose your own adventure.

Watch Collins trying to tackle opponents straight on. He's not a DE. He's a chase/cover LB who should be used as part of a platoon in order to keep him off the field on first down.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Collins currently plays at about 250#, pretty much the same weight as he was at the Combine a year ago. That's too light to be a full time line player, and I also think that role would diminish his versatility and usefulness. I've always projected Collins as a guy who plays primarily in space, but who can move up on the line on occasion as a sub-rusher or in a speed oriented defense.

Yep, my mistake. For some reason I have been under the impression that he came out at 235. That aside I agree about how best to use him.