My Blueprint for the Defense

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Being just about the only one on one side of the argument is not making this process a lot of fun. So out of respect to you all, and to ensure my continued enjoyment, I think I'll duck out of this and any discussion about team makeup and just discuss the draft prospects.

I'm not throwing a tantrum, it just isn't fun to disagree constantly with people you respect or visa versa, have them disagree with you.

Don't do that.

Would 1 year of Wilfork change your opinion of Nix? Personally Wilfork doesn't change my approach to the position because:

1. We don't know if he will be back at near the same level
2. He may only be back for one year.

Even if Wilfork comes back and plays at a high level in 2014 I don't think he will play long beyond that. If a player is there like Nix (who I personally think is the best NT in the draft since Ngata) then I take him in a heartbeat, Wilfork or not. Similarly there are no DT's currently on the roster that would even make me think about not taking a DT early because all of them have ?

There is nothing wrong with being the only one on a side of an argument as long as you believe in it and can justify it. You clearly have your reasons for your viewpoints and I have nothing but respect for people that stick to what they believe in even if they are in the minority. I know I've been in that position plenty of times on this board in regards to certain players, but as long as you can make a logical and structure argument to support your viewpoint there is nothing wrong with that. You might not change peoples minds, but you will certainly facilitate healthy debate.

:agree:

 

[everlong]

Being just about the only one on one side of the argument is not making this process a lot of fun. So out of respect to you all, and to ensure my continued enjoyment, I think I'll duck out of this and any discussion about team makeup and just discuss the draft prospects.

I'm not throwing a tantrum, it just isn't fun to disagree constantly with people you respect or visa versa, have them disagree with you.

Actually I know what you mean but I still hope you'll reconsider. The odd part about this is you actually like some defensive players who fit my point of view more than I do in Donald and Shazier. I certainly didn't want you to leave the discussion. I just didn't want to be labeled a hater because I would like certain changes made. There's a difference between saying I want more team speed and better athletes and more aggression vs saying BB has lost his fastball and has entered the Shula\Noll\Landry at the end zone.

 

[dryheat44]

Would 1 year of Wilfork change your opinion of Nix? Personally Wilfork doesn't change my approach to the position because:

1. We don't know if he will be back at near the same level
2. He may only be back for one year.

Even if Wilfork comes back and plays at a high level in 2014 I don't think he will play long beyond that. If a player is there like Nix (who I personally think is the best NT in the draft since Ngata) then I take him in a heartbeat, Wilfork or not. Similarly there are no DT's currently on the roster that would even make me think about not taking a DT early because all of them have ?

I'm reading that Raji is a likely cap casualty in Green Bay. He'll turn 28 this summer -- which is not young. But for a two-three year deal, he should remove the temptation to reach for a guy in the draft. Ditto Paul Soliai. I think DT is a critical need, but I feel more comfortable signing a vet DT and taking a developmental guy later and go somewhere else with our early picks.

 

[captain stone]

Would 1 year of Wilfork change your opinion of Nix? Personally Wilfork doesn't change my approach to the position because:

1. We don't know if he will be back at near the same level
2. He may only be back for one year.

Even if Wilfork comes back and plays at a high level in 2014 I don't think he will play long beyond that. If a player is there like Nix (who I personally think is the best NT in the draft since Ngata) then I take him in a heartbeat, Wilfork or not. Similarly there are no DT's currently on the roster that would even make me think about not taking a DT early because all of them have ?

It might depend on Wilfork's willingness to take a massive pay cut. If he's willing, and the savings
is spent on acquiring a DE to rotate with Ninko & Jones, then my objection to drafting a 2-down
space-eater with our first pick would be greatly reduced.

 

[captain stone]

I'm reading that Raji is a likely cap casualty in Green Bay. He'll turn 28 this summer -- which is not young. But for a two-three year deal, he should remove the temptation to reach for a guy in the draft. Ditto Paul Soliai. I think DT is a critical need, but I feel more comfortable signing a vet DT and taking a developmental guy later and go somewhere else with our early picks.

I would have no problem whatsoever with signing Raji; however, it may be necessary to remove
Wilfork's & Kelly's salaries in their current forms before such a signing is possible.

 

[everlong]

Profootbal Reference tries to do a stat called approximately value. I don't necessarily love the way they do it but it's interesting nonetheless.

For instance:

Jerry Rice 1992: 84 catches, 1201 yards, 14.3 average, 10 TD, 58 rushing yards, 1TD and his approximately value is 17.

Rob Gronkowski 2011: 90 catches, 1327 yards, 14.7 average, 17 TDs, 2 rushing yards and 1TD and his AV is also 17.

So more yards, higher average per catch and 7 more TDs is equal? No.

I do bring it up however because if you go to this link which is last year's draft and sort by Career AV (since it's only one year) the highest defender and tied for highest overall with Kyle Long who went to the pro bowl is our own Chris Jones who did it in only 13 games. Pretty interesting list.

2013 NFL Draft Listing - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Another win for the small schools.

 

[nekromantique]

I think it makes perfect sense. It's the "overload" approach which the Giants used so successfully - don't just plug holes, get stronger at positions of strength and establish dominance. .

I'm all for making a strength stronger....but there is some caution that needs to be heeded when thinking that way.

you mention the giants...and theyre a perfect example.

their team is so messed up right now because they rarely fulfill their needs.

Their O-Line is terrible. Their LB corps is terrible, their Secondary is mediocre at best, and their pass-rush hasnt been particularly good the last couple years despite them constantly drafting pass rushers.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm all for making a strength stronger....but there is some caution that needs to be heeded when thinking that way.

you mention the giants...and theyre a perfect example.

their team is so messed up right now because they rarely fulfill their needs.

Their O-Line is terrible. Their LB corps is terrible, their Secondary is mediocre at best, and their pass-rush hasnt been particularly good the last couple years despite them constantly drafting pass rushers.

That's very well stated. I certainly don't want to suggest going so far as to blatantly ignore needs. There's got to be a balance - over-reaching to fill a need seldom works well, and making a strength stronger can produce exceptional results, but not if other areas are allowed to atrophy too much.

 

[Snake Eyes]

That's very well stated. I certainly don't want to suggest going so far as to blatantly ignore needs. There's got to be a balance - over-reaching to fill a need seldom works well, and making a strength stronger can produce exceptional results, but not if other areas are allowed to atrophy too much.

I'm thinking a good personnel philosophy is taking a player who represent the best opportunity to improve the team relative to the other opportunities available, whether it's a strength or weakness. I'd rather get a stud player at any position, even if it's one I'm already strong at, than a mediocre player, even if it's a position of need. Also, for all you know another team has an injury and suddenly they're willing to make a nice trade for that stud player you just grabbed.

 

[mayoclinic]

There are 2 FA DE's who should be available at reasonably low cost (I'm guessing around $3M AAV, give or take a bit) who I think could be really effective in a rotation with Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich (and possibly Michael Buchanan, if he progresses):

1. Will Smith (New Orleans). 32 years old. 6'4" 282#. The Saints cut Smith this week for cap purposes. He was a bit miscast as a OLB in Rob Ryan ' s defense, but has been a very good 4-3 DE as recently as 2012. He would also provide experience and leadership. BB was quite high on Smith in 2004, and said he would have strongly considered him at 21 that year.

2. Corey Wootton (Chicago). 26 years old. 6'6" 270#. Wootton was someone the Pats looked at closely in 2010. He is scheme-diverse, and can play 4-3 DE, 3-4 DE, and 4-3 3-tech DT. The Bears used him mostly inside last year after Henry Melton got hurt. He had arthoscopic hip surgery last month, but should be healthy for training camp.

All things equal I'd probably go after Wootton first. But I think a rotation of Jones - Ninkovich - Wootton/Smith - Buchanan would be very solid, especially given the ability to put Collins or Hightower on the line at times, and if Armond Armstead comes back and can play LDE as well as DT.

 

[everlong]

1. Will Smith (New Orleans).

I'd also consider kicking the tires on Roman Harper. I bet he can be had cheap and Gregory is going to be a cap casualty. Good depth to compete.

 

[Keyser Söze]

Arington should be gone this offseason. He was a special teams nobody on another team and we bring him in to start at CB.

 

[kennyb]

He costs more to cut than keep.

And Roman harper is old and slow. But probably still better than gregory.

 

[Sciz]

Arington should be gone this offseason. He was a special teams nobody on another team and we bring him in to start at CB.

1. Arrington played through a groin injury that needed surgery this offseason
2. He still played just fine
3. His contract makes it completely illogical to cut him

 

[everlong]

He costs more to cut than keep.

And Roman harper is old and slow. But probably still better than gregory.

Gregory costs 2.25M in salary to keep and is a cap savings of 2.3M to cut with 885K in dead money.

Harper is 31 and will come really cheap. I'm not advocating him as a starter but quality veteran depth and leadership.

 

[manxman2601]

Gregory costs 2.25M in salary to keep and is a cap savings of 2.3M to cut with 885K in dead money.

Harper is 31 and will come really cheap. I'm not advocating him as a starter but quality veteran depth and leadership.

Pretty sure KennyB was talking about Arrington.

 

[All22PatsFan]

He costs more to cut than keep.

And Roman harper is old and slow. But probably still better than gregory.

Roman Harper is the worst safety I have ever seen on film, Gregory was better then him last season and espicallly this season. Harper would be a gigantic step down from Gregory.

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's my "blueprint" for evolving the Pats' D into one on a Seattle/SF/Carolina championship-caliber level.

1. Need a change of attitude and approach.

The Pats' D comes from the top, and it's just not adequate in today's NFL. Too passive, too soft. The defense needs to get much more physical and play with an attitude and with controlled rage. Aqib Talib brought some much-needed swagger to a demoralized secondary, and that kind of attitude is needed on all 3 levels.

I have serious questions that Matt Patricia executing BB's strategy is going to get us to the next level. I like bringing in some fresh blood (Brandon Daly is by all accounts very intense, and that is needed).

2. Upgrade and add depth on DL.

In 2013 we had DEs Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich both playing over 1000 snaps (9.81% and 95.6%, respectively), with Andre Carter, Michael Buchanan and Jake Bequette for "depth". There was no depth. Vince Wilfork played on skates for 3 games, possibly due to Achilles tendonitis, before rupturing his Achilles week 4 against Atlanta. Tommy Kelly was solid at the beginning of the year before injuring his knee and eventually going on IR with an ACL tear. Chris Jones and Sealver Siliga stepped up, but neither is a clear future starter. In the AFCCG we got no pressure at all on Peyton Manning, and played a very passive game, even before Aqib Talib got hurt. Seattle showed what a difference pressuring Manning makes - even though they only recorded 1 sack they pressured him effectively the entire game.

We need to get serious quality depth at DE, and upgrade our starters at DT. I'm not at all optimistic about Wilfork's ability to come back, given the nature of his injury, the nature of his job, and his weight, age and genetics (strong family history of diabetes). Kelly should be able to come back, but he is not a long term solution at the 3-tech position. Armond Armstead will hopefully be back, but he is too much of an unknown at this time to bank on.

My preferences:

- DE: FAs like Michael Johnson and Greg Hardy will be too expensive. I thought we should have gone after Michael Bennett last year. He would be a reasonable option, but wants to stay in Seattle. I think the draft is probably the way to go. I like Trent Murphy (my favorite prospect in the draft). Aaron Lynch has all the physical tools, as does Kony Ealy (who will likely be off the board). Taylor Hart and Will Clarke have intriguing skill sets. Scott Crichton has violent hands and a non-stop motor. At least 1 of those guys would be a huge upgrade behind Jones and Ninkovich, with Buchanan hopefully stepping up. I could also see Armond Armstead and Dont'a Hightower getting time at DE, and Jamie Collins playing a Leo role.

- NT: I would cut Wilfork. The risks of extending him and being saddled with his contract if he can't come back outweigh the risks of cutting him. I'd sign Linval Joseph (think Brandon Mebane) as a UFA if possible. Louis Nix in the 1st round and Justin Ellis in the 3rd/4th are my preferred draft options. Sealver Siliga provides quality depth and rotational capability.

- 3-tech: Chris Jones is on the roster, and Armond Armstead will hopefully be able to get on the field and contribute. The Pats could "stand Pat" with Tommy Kelly and be ok for 2014, but if the opportunity to upgrade is there, I'd take it. I think the FA 3-techs like Henry Melton (coming off an ACL) are going to be expensive. In the draft I would consider Ra'Shede Hageman or Timmy Jernigan at 29 if they were available. Aaron Donald needs to be evaluate closely, but could be a good option in the early 2nd if he is available. Caraun Reid is an intriguing prospect, and plays with a violence that is much needed. Ego Ferguson and DeAndre Coleman could possibly play either the 0/1 or 3-tech positions. Stephon Tuitt could be a 3-tech/5-tech option, but I'm not sold on him. I wouldn't do anything with Tommy Kelly until after the draft.

3. Continue to get more mobile at LB.

Brandon Spikes and Dont'a Hightower are not the future of the NFL. Jamie Collins is. We need more players with Collins kind of skill set. Spikes won't be back, and Hightower will probably take over at MLB, but I'd like to see at least 1 and maybe 2 guys brought in who have the ability to play in space and cover and who can blitz or be used as sub rushers. Christian Jones has an Alec Ogletree kind of skill set but experience playing all 3 LB spots and DE and even some DT. He is much stronger than Ogletree and able to fight through blockers, but smooth enough in coverage to play man on Sammy Watkins. Marcus Smith has Jamie Collins-like athleticism. Kyle Van Noy has amazing instincts and range. Ryan Shazier has Lavonte David-like capability. Dane Fletcher provides nice depth at all 3 LB spots, and will hopefully be re-signed.

4. Go "Seattle" with big, physical DBs.

I can't stand seeing Kyle Arrington play outside CB. He has no place in that role. Logan Ryan is a nice ballhawk with good nickel capability, but I don't want him as my starting outside CB. The Pats need to re-sign Aqib Talib and extend Devin McCourty, but they need a more physical presence at safety opposite McCourty and they need 1-2 big, physical CBs who can play press-man. Calvin Pryor would be ideal at safety. He would punish players for going over the middle, something that we've been sorely lacking since Rodney retired. Stanley Jean-Baptiste, Aaron Colvin, Antone Exum and Jonathan Dowling are all options for big CBs, possibly with some safety versatility.

My "ideal" offseason:

- Cut Wilfork, sign Linval Joseph

The draft (including a Mallett for #33 trade for now):

- 29. Calvin Pryor, S. 6'2" 208#. We should have taken Harrison Smith at 25 2 years ago. A DT like Ra'Shede Hageman or Timmy Jernigan would also be an option.
- Trade 33 to Jacksonville for 39 and 102.
- 39. Trent Murphy, DE. 6'6" 261#.
- Trade 62 for 73 and a 4th round pick.
- 73. Marcus Smith, DE/OLB. 6' 3 1/2" 258#.
- 93. Used on offense (best available OL depending on FA).
- 102. Christian Jones, LB. 6'3" 236#.
- 4 (from Minnesota. Used on offense (move TE like Richard Rodgers).
4. Caraun Reid, DT. 6'2" 310#.
6a. Aaron Lynch, DE. 6'6" 260#.
6b. Aaron Colvin or Antone Exum, DB
6 (comp). Used on offense (Trey Millard)
6 (comp). Jonathan Dowling, DB

Post-draft, Gregory and Kelly restructure, possibly with 1 year extensions.

2 weeks and 275 posts later, I'm still in roughly the same place as when this thread started:

- Get more physical and aggressive on the overall defensive approach, without necessarily giving up discipline and some of the basic principles which have defined BB's defensive philosophy in the past.

- Add depth to the DL.

- Get bigger and more physical in the secondary.

- Add speed and playmaking at all 3 levels.

Right now I think the Pats will go into FA with about $3-4M to spend, depending on where the league-wide cap actually comes in. Between now and the start of free agency I would augment that with the following:

- Early extensions for Devin McCourty, Stephen Gostkowski and Matt Slater. Those should free up around $3M.
- Cut Vince Wilfork, Isaac Sapoaga and Adrian Wilson. Those 3 cuts should free up about $11.5M+.

That would give the Pats around $18M to spend, maybe a bit more. Decisions on Dan Connolly, Steve Gregory and Tommy Kelly can wait.

Prior to the draft I'd like to do the following on defense:

1. Re-sign Aqib Talib. Priority #1. I assume his 2014 cap hit can be kept to around $5M based on previous deals in the projected range (about $7M/year AAV).

2. Sign a UFA DT. My preference is Linval Joseph. Some people like Arthur Jones. I'm hoping the 2014 cap hit can be kept to around $4M.

3. Sign a moderately-priced UFA DE. I don't think Greg Hardy, Michael Johnson or Michael Bennett are realistic options. Jared Allen is a longshot, but he could opt to take a low cost incentive-based contract to play with a contender. Corey Wootton seems like the most realistic effective option to me. Will Smith may not have much left in the tank, but could be this year's Andre Carter.

4. Hopefully re-sign Dane Fletcher for depth at LB. Low cost move.

Those moves would solidify the team at all 3 levels going into the draft:

- DE: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, FA veteran (call it Wootton for now, with Allen a long shot), Michael Buchanan. Armond Armstead, Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower can also play DE at times.
- DT: FA veteran (call it Linval Joseph for now), Tommy Kelly, Armond Armstead, Sealver Siliga, Chris Jones.
- LB: Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Dane Fletcher.
- S: Devin McCouty, Steve Gregory, Duron Harmon, Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner.
- CB: Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard, Logan Ryan, Kyle Arrington.

That would allow the Pats to find the best value and fit in the draft to upgrade the overall talent/athleticism level and add depth, without being under pressure to find immediate starters or plug gaping holes. Potential targets might include:

- A penetrating DT along the lines of Timmy Jernigan, Aaron Donald, Dominique Easley, Will Sutton or Caraun Reid.
- A run stopping NT along the lines of Louis Nix, Justin Ellis or Zach Kerr.
- More depth and versatility at DL along the lines of Ra'Shede Hageman, Trent Murphy, Stephon Tuitt, Aaron Lynch, Brent Urban or Taylor Hart.
- A LB with athleticism and coverage ability along the lines of Ryan Shazier, Kyle Van Noy, Marcus Smith, Christian Jones or Tyler Starr.
- A physical safety along the lines of Calvin Pryor or Deone Buccannon.
- Big DBs who can play press-man or possibly safety along the lines of Stanley Jean-Baptiste, Kyle Fuller, Antone Exum, Dontae Johnson and Jonathan Dowling.

Any combination of those would potentially significantly upgrade the defense.

 

[All22PatsFan]

2 weeks and 275 posts later, I'm still in roughly the same place as when this thread started:

- Get more physical and aggressive on the overall defensive approach, without necessarily giving up discipline and some of the basic principles which have defined BB's defensive philosophy in the past.

- Add depth to the DL.

- Get bigger and more physical in the secondary.

- Add speed and playmaking at all 3 levels.

Right now I think the Pats will go into FA with about $3-4M to spend, depending on where the league-wide cap actually comes in. Between now and the start of free agency I would augment that with the following:

- Early extensions for Devin McCourty, Stephen Gostkowski and Matt Slater. Those should free up around $3M.
- Cut Vince Wilfork, Isaac Sapoaga and Adrian Wilson. Those 3 cuts should free up about $11.5M+.

That would give the Pats around $18M to spend, maybe a bit more. Decisions on Dan Connolly, Steve Gregory and Tommy Kelly can wait.

Prior to the draft I'd like to do the following on defense:

1. Re-sign Aqib Talib. Priority #1. I assume his 2014 cap hit can be kept to around $5M based on previous deals in the projected range (about $7M/year AAV).

2. Sign a UFA DT. My preference is Linval Joseph. Some people like Arthur Jones. I'm hoping the 2014 cap hit can be kept to around $4M.

3. Sign a moderately-priced UFA DE. I don't think Greg Hardy, Michael Johnson or Michael Bennett are realistic options. Jared Allen is a longshot, but he could opt to take a low cost incentive-based contract to play with a contender. Corey Wootton seems like the most realistic effective option to me. Will Smith may not have much left in the tank, but could be this year's Andre Carter.

4. Hopefully re-sign Dane Fletcher for depth at LB. Low cost move.

Those moves would solidify the team at all 3 levels going into the draft:

- DE: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, FA veteran (call it Wootton for now, with Allen a long shot), Michael Buchanan. Armond Armstead, Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower can also play DE at times.
- DT: FA veteran (call it Linval Joseph for now), Tommy Kelly, Armond Armstead, Sealver Siliga, Chris Jones.
- LB: Jerod Mayo, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Dane Fletcher.
- S: Devin McCouty, Steve Gregory, Duron Harmon, Tavon Wilson, Nate Ebner.
- CB: Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard, Logan Ryan, Kyle Arrington.

That would allow the Pats to find the best value and fit in the draft to upgrade the overall talent/athleticism level and add depth, without being under pressure to find immediate starters or plug gaping holes. Potential targets might include:

- A penetrating DT along the lines of Timmy Jernigan, Aaron Donald, Dominique Easley, Will Sutton or Caraun Reid.
- A run stopping NT along the lines of Louis Nix, Justin Ellis or Zach Kerr.
- More depth and versatility at DL along the lines of Ra'Shede Hageman, Trent Murphy, Stephon Tuitt, Aaron Lynch, Brent Urban or Taylor Hart.
- A LB with athleticism and coverage ability along the lines of Ryan Shazier, Kyle Van Noy, Marcus Smith, Christian Jones or Tyler Starr.
- A physical safety along the lines of Calvin Pryor or Deone Buccannon.
- Big DBs who can play press-man or possibly safety along the lines of Stanley Jean-Baptiste, Kyle Fuller, Antone Exum, Dontae Johnson and Jonathan Dowling.

Any combination of those would potentially significantly upgrade the defense.

I like almost all of this. Except I think its one or the other when it comes to the draft and FA. I also. think Siliga will start at NT next year. I also would substitute Everson Griffen for Corey Wootwn and cut TK and keep Connolly.

 

[mayoclinic]

I like almost all of this. Except I think its one or the other when it comes to the draft and FA. I also. think Siliga will start at NT next year. I also would substitute Everson Griffen for Corey Wootwn and cut TK and keep Connolly.

I don't understand what the bolded statement means. Please clarify.

I'd be happy for the Pats to include Everson Griffin in the FA DE mix. He was someone rumored to be of interest to them in 2010. There are reports, however, that he turned down an extension offer from the Vikings earlier this year and wants to be paid rather exorbitantly.

As I've said elsewhere, Tommy Kelly could potentially be a cap or numbers casualty, but I see no need to make any hasty moves with him. As for Siliga starting at NT, that will depend on competition in training camp, which we can't project at this point. If he earns the starting job he earns it, but I don't see it being handed to him.