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OK, I managed to slog through all 10 pages (so far) of this thread. That's about 7 pages by Brady 6 and 3 by everyone else. Here are my comments on the comments.
1. When looking at Edelman's accomplishments this year you HAVE to look at them within the prism of the Patriots offense. From Troy Brown, to Wes Welker, to Julian Edelman, virtually every receiver who has ever played it for any time gets close to that 100 catch/100yd threshold. It has to make you wonder if the offense has something to do with the success of slot guys who play there.
Just look at Welker in Denver. Surrounded by more talent than he ever saw here, and having a HOF QB who needs to throw short, he still never came close to his numbers here in catches and yds
The point here is, however you look at Edelman, the fact is that the style of offense the Pats run IS a factor in the success of ANYONE who plays the slot position.
2. Also (as mentioned) you have to look at his numbers within the framework of the 2013 receiving corps, which included a trio of rookies, an impaired, new to the system WR in Amendola, and virtually no TE production.
3. The fact is that there is no way that Edelman appoaches the numbers he had this year if he is playing with a healthy Gronk and Amendola, plus 3 rookies who have made that 2nd year jump. He won't get close to the 150 targets he saw this year.
4. And here where it get interesting. Do you pay Edelman the market price for what he DID in 2013, or do you offer him a number that would more reflect what they EXPECT him to do within the context of having targets taken away from him by the fact there are now better WR's and TE options to go along with him in 2014
5. Now I'll state a case that favors bringing him back. Most people here make the assumption that Edelman and Amendola are interchangeable parts playing the same position. But BB made is clear on a number of occasions that he felt DA and JE have different skill sets. If that's truly the case, then the Pats could use both within the same system, with one taking the slot area and the other more as a true WR.
Now I don't know which would be which, and BB could have just have been blowing smoke up the media's ass. But if $5MM/yr IS Edelman's market price, then since everyone else is so cheap, having around $10MM tied up in 2 WR's isn't a burden especially if you can get out of one of the contract in 2015/16 without much pain
6. I have to laugh at those of you who are using almost word for word the same arguments for keeping Edelman and dumping on Amendola, that were used last year at this time to keep Welker and dump on Edelman.
Here's what I know. If Danny Amendola is healthy and gets 150 targets next season, he WILL have 100 catches and 1000 yds. I'll take it one step farther. If Josh Boyce gets 150 targets from the slot position next year, HE will have 100 catches and 1000yds. It's part the nature of the position, part the structure of the offense, part the QB, and part the skill set of the receiver.
7. But here's what has finally become clear to me this season. You don't have to be a "top 20 WR" to get those numbers on the Pats. Physically you have to have good hands, and quickness. Mentally you have to be fearless, tough, and smart The physical side is, frankly, easy to find. The mental aspect is harder, but its not like finding needles in a haystack. Just look at the fact that Welker, Cruz, and DA were all UDFA's and Edelman was a 7th round pick who never play WR in his life.
8. So in the end, I'd offer Edelman a contract from 3-4 years in the $3-4MM/yr range. with something like a $6MM signing bonus and half guaranteed. If that's not enough to get it done, I'd move on without a regret in world. And that's coming from Edelman's top defender last off season.
9, 2 other facts to keep in mind is that 1. fans always tend to overvalue their own FA's, and 2. We all vastly overvalued Welker's market price last season. Remember last season the "market" valued the TOP slot receiver in NFL history to be at $6MM/yr for what amounts to 1 year. What then will the market be for a player who has been healthy only one year in 4, and has only one year of high end production.
I don't know what it will be, but if history tells us anything, it will probably be LESS than we think.
1. When looking at Edelman's accomplishments this year you HAVE to look at them within the prism of the Patriots offense. From Troy Brown, to Wes Welker, to Julian Edelman, virtually every receiver who has ever played it for any time gets close to that 100 catch/100yd threshold. It has to make you wonder if the offense has something to do with the success of slot guys who play there.
Just look at Welker in Denver. Surrounded by more talent than he ever saw here, and having a HOF QB who needs to throw short, he still never came close to his numbers here in catches and yds
The point here is, however you look at Edelman, the fact is that the style of offense the Pats run IS a factor in the success of ANYONE who plays the slot position.
2. Also (as mentioned) you have to look at his numbers within the framework of the 2013 receiving corps, which included a trio of rookies, an impaired, new to the system WR in Amendola, and virtually no TE production.
3. The fact is that there is no way that Edelman appoaches the numbers he had this year if he is playing with a healthy Gronk and Amendola, plus 3 rookies who have made that 2nd year jump. He won't get close to the 150 targets he saw this year.
4. And here where it get interesting. Do you pay Edelman the market price for what he DID in 2013, or do you offer him a number that would more reflect what they EXPECT him to do within the context of having targets taken away from him by the fact there are now better WR's and TE options to go along with him in 2014
5. Now I'll state a case that favors bringing him back. Most people here make the assumption that Edelman and Amendola are interchangeable parts playing the same position. But BB made is clear on a number of occasions that he felt DA and JE have different skill sets. If that's truly the case, then the Pats could use both within the same system, with one taking the slot area and the other more as a true WR.
Now I don't know which would be which, and BB could have just have been blowing smoke up the media's ass. But if $5MM/yr IS Edelman's market price, then since everyone else is so cheap, having around $10MM tied up in 2 WR's isn't a burden especially if you can get out of one of the contract in 2015/16 without much pain
6. I have to laugh at those of you who are using almost word for word the same arguments for keeping Edelman and dumping on Amendola, that were used last year at this time to keep Welker and dump on Edelman.
Here's what I know. If Danny Amendola is healthy and gets 150 targets next season, he WILL have 100 catches and 1000 yds. I'll take it one step farther. If Josh Boyce gets 150 targets from the slot position next year, HE will have 100 catches and 1000yds. It's part the nature of the position, part the structure of the offense, part the QB, and part the skill set of the receiver.
7. But here's what has finally become clear to me this season. You don't have to be a "top 20 WR" to get those numbers on the Pats. Physically you have to have good hands, and quickness. Mentally you have to be fearless, tough, and smart The physical side is, frankly, easy to find. The mental aspect is harder, but its not like finding needles in a haystack. Just look at the fact that Welker, Cruz, and DA were all UDFA's and Edelman was a 7th round pick who never play WR in his life.
8. So in the end, I'd offer Edelman a contract from 3-4 years in the $3-4MM/yr range. with something like a $6MM signing bonus and half guaranteed. If that's not enough to get it done, I'd move on without a regret in world. And that's coming from Edelman's top defender last off season.
9, 2 other facts to keep in mind is that 1. fans always tend to overvalue their own FA's, and 2. We all vastly overvalued Welker's market price last season. Remember last season the "market" valued the TOP slot receiver in NFL history to be at $6MM/yr for what amounts to 1 year. What then will the market be for a player who has been healthy only one year in 4, and has only one year of high end production.
I don't know what it will be, but if history tells us anything, it will probably be LESS than we think.












