Did Brady know it was going to be this tough after he took his pay cut?

[Deus Irae]

Not for the blank check you would have been willing to give him.

What blank check? I spoke numbers time and time again. If you're going to try to undercut me, at least do it with a bit of accuracy.

 

[Sciz]

What blank check? I spoke numbers time and time again. If you're going to try to undercut me, at least do it with a bit of accuracy.

These are a few quotes that I could find with a quick search...

As for what the Patriots should have done, they should have adapted to the changed WR market:

2 years 20-21, 15 guaranteed
3 years 24-30, 16-20 guaranteed (I'd have looked at 3/24-3/27 as the expected range)

Either of the above could have been offered and, since they'd already franchised him, the 2 year deal would have been a low offer anyway, but would have given Welker a bit more security without ramping his price up higher than the double franchise tag. Reportedly, they never budged off of 2 years 16, which was an insult.

Hypothetical Deus 2012 suggested offer: $20M/2yrs, $15M guaranteed
Reported Pats' offer: $16M/2yrs, $16M guaranteed
Actual end result: $15.5M/2yrs, $9.5M guaranteed

He got $9 million for this year. He can get $11 million for one year if he's franchised again, or he can get a multi-year deal for much more if he hits the market. Why would he accept $7.5 million per, for the next 2 years, when he's playing as well as he is?

This year, the baseline's been reset. His minimum "Franchise" earning is now over $11 million in year one. Since his production hasn't waned at all, he has no real reason to accept the lower offers that would have looked so good last year. He should be able to make a killing on the market. Imagine the Colts looking at the idea of adding Welker to their offense, for example.

Hypothetical offer that Deus says Welker shouldn't consider: $15M/2yrs, less than $11M in year 1
Actual end result: $12M/2yrs, $6M in year 1

Deus' predicted Welker market: "He should be able to make a killing"
Actual Welker market: Anything but a killing



Now forgive me if I exaggerate your complete overrating of his market as offering him a blank check. For the months leading up to the inevitable Welker negotiation, you berated the Patriots for not offering him enough money or enough guarantees.

Turns out, that $16M/2yr contract that you were calling a complete BS offer for over a year was the best offer he ever got and better in both total money and guarantees than what he ended up getting.

You said there was no reason for Welker to consider a hypothetical $15M/2yr contract this past offseason. He didn't even get close to that, and the second year of the contract that he did get is the worst kind of additional year, one with no guaranteed money if he doesn't play well, but locks him in if he does.


Now sure, it's clear that in the 2013 offseason, the Patriots did not offer enough to get him re-signed. However, in hindsight their 2012 offer was more than fair and was better than what he got. Welker gambled on himself and lost. Their 2013 offer was at most underselling him by $1M a year, which is far better than the $3-4M a year you were overrating his value.

If you were in charge of a team, Welker and his agent would have been laughing hysterically at how much they took advantage of you compared to the rest of the market. So no, you weren't offering him a blank check. Yes, you were completely wrong and willing to vastly overpay him, and that's not the answer. And all of this is why I refuse to ever take you seriously when you complain about the Pats being cheap when it comes to Welker. Welker and his agent effed up, and so did you. The Pats played it correctly, yet both they and Welker missed out. NFL contracts are a two-way street, and I think it's completely ridiculous that you're upset with the team that in completely 20/20 hindsight made a move that would have been good for both Welker and the Patriots had Welker not completely misjudged the market for his services.

 

[reflexblue]

OH to be a fly on the wall of the Brady house hold and hear what TB Really thinks about having to throw to a bunch of rookies at this stage of his career. Hes a lot closer to the end than the beginning. Especially after restructuring his contract.

 

[ATippett56]

OH to be a fly on the wall of the Brady house hold and hear what TB Really thinks about having to throw to a bunch of rookies at this stage of his career. Hes a lot closer to the end than the beginning. Especially after restructuring his contract.

Aaron Hernandez screwed the New England Patriots franchise over BIG TIME!

As for the New England Patriots offensive line, the entire group needs to learn how to run block against the New York Jesters.

 

[ausbacker]

My opinion is this season was more about poor decisions in prior off seasons finally catching up to us.

• paying Hernandez over Welker
• only investing 3 draft picks in the last 5 years on wide receivers
• attempting to fill the X receiver position with end of career veterans with character issues.

How was paying Hernandez ahead of Welker a poor decision? You're speaking as if we all knew he was an alleged murderer before the fact. The Patriots invest in players they want. Hernandez was a young, up and coming Tight End who was putting runs on the board. Economically, it was the wiser spend.

What you need to remember is that doesn't mean Welker couldn't have been retained.

 

[RayClay]

Excellent point. It would be awful if the Patriots had a top quality and historically physically reliable WR on the roster right now.

No, I mean if every valuable player came with a list of players management must sign in order to sign them. We'd end up like one of those clown teams that has to sign players to long term contracts out of sentiment, or because they're scared of the fans, instead of a team that is almost a guarantee to win at least ten and make the playoffs every single year.

 

[Rob0729]

Several things:

• As pointed out, Brady did take a pay cut. He got more money up front and his extension fully guaranteed for what will be a value contract in 2015 going forward if he is still an elite QB. Even then, there is no guarantee that he doesn't renegotiate for more money before then (Brady hinted that that may be the case). If Brady's skills deteriorate rapidly by 2015, this could end up being a great deal for Brady and a horrible deal for the Pats.
• Brady went into the contract knowing full well that Welker could very well be gone. He's good friends with Welker. He had to know that Welker was going to leave unless the Pats broke the bank for him.
• We're in week 2 of the season. Let's see how the offense develops over the season before we say the Pats screwed Brady with his weapons. Gronk could be back as soon as next week and Amendola could be back then too.
• If Hernandez didn't turn out to be a murderous scumbag and Gronk didn't have an infection (neither the Pats or Brady knew about at prior to the extension), Brady would have two very good TE targets right now. Gronk would have had his back surgery early in the offseason and been 100% day one. Both were out of the Pats' control and would have radically changed the Pats' offensive situation.
• I am damn glad Brady didn't make demands that Welker be re-signed. Isn't that one of the reasons why most of us hate Manning? That he tries to play GM. Isn't that why most of the country started to turn on Favre that he got into a battle with his GM because he wanted them to trade for Moss? No player, even arguably the best player of all time, should be demanding roster moves. I am actually proud of Brady that he supports (at least publicly) every decision made by this team whether he agrees with it or not. That is what a good leader does.

 

[Rob0729]

My opinion is this season was more about poor decisions in prior off seasons finally catching up to us.

• paying Hernandez over Welker
• only investing 3 draft picks in the last 5 years on wide receivers
• attempting to fill the X receiver position with end of career veterans with character issues.

Paying Hernandez over Welker is a poor decision in hindsight. At the time, it was the best thing to do. Hernandez was a 22 year old TE who was going to be a major piece of the offense for possibly the next ten years. Welker is an one or two year solution. He is showing signs of aging. He isn't as fast and he is dropping a lot more balls than he did when he was younger (he had two drops in key situations in week 1 that luckily for him and the Broncos didn't come back to haunt him).

I assume the X receiver is Ochocinco. It is another hindsight thing. Nearly everyone thought that getting Ocho was a great move at the time. Most people expected him to get at least 1,000 yards. Virtually no one thought he would be the bust he was.

 

[Zeus]

Paying Hernandez over Welker is a poor decision in hindsight. At the time, it was the best thing to do. Hernandez was a 22 year old TE who was going to be a major piece of the offense for possibly the next ten years. Welker is an one or two year solution. He is showing signs of aging. He isn't as fast and he is dropping a lot more balls than he did when he was younger (he had two drops in key situations in week 1 that luckily for him and the Broncos didn't come back to haunt him).

I assume the X receiver is Ochocinco. It is another hindsight thing. Nearly everyone thought that getting Ocho was a great move at the time. Most people expected him to get at least 1,000 yards. Virtually no one thought he would be the bust he was.

1. My opinion - Welker and #81 were independent decisions; different positions, ages, different upsides, different risks. It was never a choice of one vs. the other.

2. There's been some talk that Ochocinco was another case of a bad character guy not working out. But he was never a problem here. I never thought he was a bad guy (although he did encounter legal problems after his marriage). He did seem to have the maturity of a well meaning 13 year old with a goofy and sometimes inappropriate sense of humor.

The mistake (and it's very surprising to me) is that the Patriots didn't recognize that his success in Cincinnati was strictly as a free lancer. Their hope and expectation that he would thrive in a complex and disciplined offensive scheme seems way off base, at least in retrospect.

 

[grux]

Brady likely expected to have Welker back, and another quality veteran WR added to the team, so I doubt he thought it would be this tough.

It's his own fault, though. He should have insisted that the Patriots bring back Welker before he signed the new deal.

Brady's job is to play quarterback. He should not be involved in personnel decisions.

 

[mgteich]

If that's true, then Brady should have respected the league salary structure and insited on double the salary that he did, or at minimum 50% more.

Brady's job is to play quarterback. He should not be involved in personnel decisions.

 

[grux]

If that's true, then Brady should have respected the league salary structure and insited on double the salary that he did, or at minimum 50% more.

He made the decision to take a lower salary. Nobody forced him to sign his name on the bottom line. He can become a GM if he wants to have input on the personnel decisions.

 

[mgteich]

In your world, Brady made a mistake. So, we should have no problem in screwing him. After all, he's just hired help. If he doesn't like it, he can retire and we will get someone else.

There is your world and there is Kraft's world, in which more than half of the wins of the franchise have taken place.

He made the decision to take a lower salary. Nobody forced him to sign his name on the bottom line. He can become a GM if he wants to have input on the personnel decisions.

 

[grux]

In your world, Brady made a mistake. So, we should have no problem is screwing him. After all, he's just hired help. If he doesn't like it, he can retire and we will get someone else.

There is your world and there is Kraft's world, in which more than half of the wins of the franchise have taken place.

Brady didn't get screwed. We didn't know Hernandez was going to end up in jail,Gronk might not start until week 3 or 4 and Vereen would break his wrist. Sure there was a risk Amendola would miss some games due to injury. Let hope he can get back on the field. Loosing Welker might hurt us short term but the pats took the long term view. I am fine with Lloyd not returning (no Yac, doesn't want to get hit and is a head case). They replaced him with some promising rookies. IMO, he will have plenty of weapons when Gronk, Amendola and Vereen are healthy.

I appreciate everything Brady has done for the Patriots. However, I disagree that any player should have input on personnel decisions.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Because to me it seems as if the team really let him out to dry this year. I get getting younger as it has to be done sooner or later...but do you really do it when your QB maybe only has 3 really good years left? Waste a year of those 3?

When Brady took the cut...do you think he did it to say...i am doing this to put more weapons around me? Or to help the team in general? You think he expected them to go after players like Boldin, Sanders ( what a cheap offer that was ) ect

Because they paid Amendola..but to replace Welker. They didn't go out and get him any extra help...really at all on O or D. Just rookies.

He saved them what...8.5 this year? And they have 10 mill in space as of right now i think?

You mean did he forsee all these injuries? And Hernandez committing murder and Welker taking less money to leave than stay?

I'd guess not.

On injuries alone there's a ton of injuries in the NFL - perhaps due to CBA conditioning restrictions.

I'm sure no team or QB envisioned the injuries that happened anywhere

 

[supafly]

Brady didn't get screwed. We didn't know Hernandez was going to end up in jail,Gronk might not start until week 3 or 4 and Vereen would break his wrist. Sure there was a risk Amendola would miss some games due to injury. Let hope he can get back on the field. Loosing Welker might hurt us short term but the pats took the long term view. I am fine with Lloyd not returning (no Yac, doesn't want to get hit and is a head case). They replaced him with some promising rookies. IMO, he will have plenty of weapons when Gronk, Amendola and Vereen are healthy.

I appreciate everything Brady has done for the Patriots. However, I disagree that any player should have input on personnel decisions.

I agree with most of what you said. I don't think that it's good practice for any player to get involved with personnel decisions either, and obviously he wasn't or Welker would still be here.

I also agree that Brady didn't get "screwed" either. He actually may have set a new precedent for players who are nearing the end of their careers to take less in order to get more guaranteed money in case of injury etc. As many will remind us with every contract situation, it's all about the guaranteed money in the end.

We all know that he could have/should have gotten more money, so that's a case of a great guy making a great decision for the team; but many here also forget that he will almost certainly get 57 million guaranteed, which is more than Flacco and Romo got with their new blockbuster deals.

 

[JMarr]

When he took the pay cut he probably assumed he would have a healthy Gronk and non-incarcerated Hernandez around him.

That plus Amendola and a rookie WR to work in sounds pretty good.

Especially if Vereen doesn't break his wrist on the first play of the season...

I he assumed we were pretty much set, why in the world would he want to restructure to free up a bunch of amount cap space? Maybe he wanted them to sign someone like Revis or Dummervil?

Either way you're assuming an awful lot here.

 

[supafly]

I he assumed we were pretty much set, why in the world would he want to restructure to free up a bunch of amount cap space?

I don't think that it was necessarily done with the primary reason to free up cap space, JMarr, although it was certainly a benefit for the future. Who knows what the absolute truth is, but Mr.Brady's best interests were definitely involved at the same time too.

I think it was done to guarantee that Brady would retire here, had another 5 yrs on his deal, and most importantly---guaranteed him more money over the lifetime of that deal than even the massive deals signed recently by Flacco and Romo. That deal also guarantees that he likely remains the starter and doesn't handcuff Belichick and the team into making a shrewd business decision by getting rid of him should he become injured or have his play trail off a bit down the road. Brady actually did alright here, and by saying that I don't mean to take away the fact that he did free up some cap space and lower his salary demands in the meantime, which was very noble of him and once again proves what a team player he is.

It was still a very smart business decision by Brady, despite what anyone says about him doing it just to look out for the organization though. There were obvious benefits to both sides for sure, which is how it always should be. More importantly, we'll likely be seeing other high profile players likely do the same as they head towards the end of their careers, but he definitely went outside the box in the thinking with this deal. It's possible that they were also looking towards the bigger picture of the next 18 months through '14 and '15 free agency periods.

 

[ATippett56]

Because to me it seems as if the team really let him out to dry this year. I get getting younger as it has to be done sooner or later...but do you really do it when your QB maybe only has 3 really good years left? Waste a year of those 3?

When Brady took the cut...do you think he did it to say...i am doing this to put more weapons around me? Or to help the team in general? You think he expected them to go after players like Boldin, Sanders ( what a cheap offer that was ) ect

Because they paid Amendola..but to replace Welker. They didn't go out and get him any extra help...really at all on O or D. Just rookies.

From an offensive prospective, the bottom of the roster leaves alot to be desired, not taking account the rookies that participated during training camp:

Barker, Chris
Blount, LeGarrette
Bolden, Brandon
Washington, Leon
Hoomanawanui, Michael
Mulligan, Matt

He saved them what...8.5 this year? And they have 10 mill in space as of right now i think?

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2013 Patriots Salary Cap Information Page

Last updated on September 7, 2013 3:55 PM EDT

Therefore, I have the Patriots under their adjusted cap limit by about $6.9 million.

https://nflplayers.com/reports/RunPublicReport.aspx?report=top51

 

[JMarr]

How was paying Hernandez ahead of Welker a poor decision? You're speaking as if we all knew he was an alleged murderer before the fact. The Patriots invest in players they want. Hernandez was a young, up and coming Tight End who was putting runs on the board. Economically, it was the wiser spend.

What you need to remember is that doesn't mean Welker couldn't have been retained.

It's not if you want to get younger, and more versatile, plus employ a two TE scheme that was more effective than anything seen before. [but let's not forget that having Welker on the field was also a big component in that scheme].

That being said, Belichik had to have had some concerns with AH's character and maturity while he was on the team. (I wouldn't think Belichick clocks out at 5, then goes home and vegges in front of the TV the rest of the night).

Welker must have really gotten on his bad side because AH: dumb as a rock. Welker: might be the most football smart and hardest working receiver the Pats have ever had.

Plus...you guessed it, the injury/durability issue comes up yet again: Hernandez--smallish as a tight end and took a pretty good beating last year. At times seemed to have difficulty handling the strength/physicality needed at TE or H-back. Got his bell rung numerous times and came up in a daze, unlike Welker most of the time, making him completely ineffective on the next couple of plays.

So, all things considered (in hindsight), giving Welker $16 and then working on Hernandez looks a bit smarter IMO. (Unless BB knew Welker was destined to be sleeping with the fishes at some point as Hernandez's team mate.)