Patriots Training Camp, Day 12 (@ Philadephia)

[Brady6]

Re: Re: Patriots Training Camp, Day 12 (@ Philadephia)

Tavon Wilson WAS a reach at the time. He is still viewed as a reach because he hasn't performed.

41 total tackles, 4 interceptions, 6 pass defends, and 2 fumble recoveries playing 42% of the snaps as a rookie.

Putting that in perspective; Ed Reed had 58 tackles and 4 interceptions playing more than 90% of the Ravens snaps.

Say Wilson made some mental errors, or he took bad angles on plays and I'd agree but saying he has not performed is inaccurate.

 

[Deus Irae]

Off topic but why did you consider that trolling? It just sounded like his opinion on the term reach.

He was chumming the waters, looking for a bite. I was giving him a compliment, because the "reach" discussion always results in a lot of back and forth. It was a great way to get posts going on a slow day.

 

[Christian]

41 total tackles, 4 interceptions, 6 pass defends, and 2 fumble recoveries playing 42% of the snaps as a rookie.

Putting that in perspective; Ed Reed had 58 tackles and 4 interceptions playing more than 90% of the Ravens snaps.

Say Wilson made some mental errors, or he took bad angles on plays and I'd agree but saying he has not performed is inaccurate.

I know you know better than to throw in stats...especially when we're talking about a SAFETY. That means nada. He was playing for one of the worst secondaries in the NFL...and when he was getting all those snaps and interceptions, it was before we got Talib and Dennard starting, which was really when the D started to improve some.

Clearly the guy is not ready. He is getting burnt in training camp, and I am someone who really wanted him to step up and be a starter. Doesn't look promising at this juncture. It still is very early for Tavon but based on history, it doesn't look good.

 

[Fencer]

You came in to ankle bite and just succeeded in looking silly.


So, par for the course. Congrats....

I could instead have said that yours was the stupidest post I've ever seen in this forum, but that would have been mild hyperbole.

The whole point of the discussion is that there are multiple opinions and, indeed, multiple consensuses.

• There's the consensus of opinion among media folks (in as extended a sense of "media" as you would like to use).
• There's the consensus among such team officials as reveal -- directly or indirectly -- their views to reporters.
• There's the consensus among the small group of teams most optimistic about a given player.

You wrote as if those three consensuses were the same.

 

[Demosthenes]

I could instead have said that yours was the stupidest post I've ever seen in this forum, but that would have been mild hyperbole.

The whole point of the discussion is that there are multiple opinions and, indeed, multiple consensuses.

• There's the consensus of opinion among media folks (in as extended a sense of "media" as you would like to use).
• There's the consensus among such team officials as reveal -- directly or indirectly -- their views to reporters.
• There's the consensus among the small group of teams most optimistic about a given player.

You wrote as if those three consensuses were the same.

There usually is a lot of overall consensus between the three, isn't there ?

 

[Joker]

There usually is a lot of overall consensus between the three, isn't there ?

ridiculous...menage a trois NEVER works out in the end..

 

[Fencer]

There usually is a lot of overall consensus between the three, isn't there ?

Yes, but it's a generality with plenty of exceptions.

That's why labeling a pick a "reach" based on pre-draft media reports is so problematic, and why Deus' simple-minded dogmatic definitions were idiotic.

A lot of apparent "reaches" on draft day turn out, based on reporting over the subsequent few weeks, not to have been reaches at all. Vollmer was one such. (Of course, given that he made Second Team All-Pro quickly, he turned out to actually be a steal.)

 

[Oswlek]

Yes, but it's a generality with plenty of exceptions.

That's why labeling a pick a "reach" based on pre-draft media reports is so problematic, and why Deus' simple-minded dogmatic definitions were idiotic.

A lot of apparent "reaches" on draft day turn out, based on reporting over the subsequent few weeks, not to have been reaches at all. Vollmer was one such. (Of course, given that he made Second Team All-Pro quickly, he turned out to actually be a steal.)

Deion Branch, Logan Mankins and even Devin McCourty

 

[Brady6]

Re: Re: Patriots Training Camp, Day 12 (@ Philadephia)

I know you know better than to throw in stats...especially when we're talking about a SAFETY. That means nada. He was playing for one of the worst secondaries in the NFL...and when he was getting all those snaps and interceptions, it was before we got Talib and Dennard starting, which was really when the D started to improve some.

Clearly the guy is not ready. He is getting burnt in training camp, and I am someone who really wanted him to step up and be a starter. Doesn't look promising at this juncture. It still is very early for Tavon but based on history, it doesn't look good.

Stats do matter when suggesting a player didn't perform, Wilson converted 20% of our interceptions and nearly 15% of our total turnovers.

I personally don't form opinions on the string a player plays on, and I haven't read a ton of reports of him being "burnt" so I'm reserving my opinion till I see him in live game action.

 

[patchick]

Hey, if I can interupt the debate over the meaning of the word "reach," I have a question:

Have the BB Patriots overall, historically, fared differently with picks that were "reaches" vs. "fair value" or "steals"?

I haven't seen an analysis of this anywhere, and it seems like the crux of the matter. If "reach" vs. "steal" doesn't predict anything about the success of the pick, then why should we even care about the labels?

Alfonzo Dennard and Vince Wilfork were considered steals; so were Chad Jackson and Darius Butler. Tavon Wilson and Terrence Wheatley were considered reaches; so were Sebastian Vollmer and Logan Mankins. Etc. Until somebody shows me that the pick's position in relationship to pre-draft predictions is in any way predictive of value realized, well, :yawn2:

 

[Danger Zone]

Re: Re: Patriots Training Camp, Day 12 (@ Philadephia)

Had a chance to ask an NFL GM about the issue of outside evaluations for the draft. It was at a party and he was pretty relaxed. He said that after the first dozen or so players, there are two, maybe three outside evaluators who get somewhat close to the NFL teams' evaluations, and they are generally not highly visible guys. The mass market evaluators are considered entertainers, not talent people.

He also said that there is a lot of difference in evaluations between teams, much more than the average fan would assume, and a lot more than there is between the media evaluators.

The overall message was that when evaluating a team's picks, one should pay very little attention to what the media evaluators say, and that defining a "reach" based on "consensus" is like coming to believe that jumping off a cliff is a good idea because you are watching a group of lemmings.

Requoted because this really has the ring of truth to it -a real insider's ring of truth.

And if true, it really puts the whole "reach" thing in perspective.

-only three or so evaluators outside the NFL capable of working at NFL standards (no, Deus isnt one of them).

-a lot of difference between team evaluations.. much more so than between the media's evaluations.

-after the top 12 players, the media mass market evaluators aren't getting it right most of the time

 

[Oswlek]

Hey, if I can interupt the debate over the meaning of the word "reach," I have a question:

Have the BB Patriots overall, historically, fared differently with picks that were "reaches" vs. "fair value" or "steals"?

I haven't seen an analysis of this anywhere, and it seems like the crux of the matter. If "reach" vs. "steal" doesn't predict anything about the success of the pick, then why should we even care about the labels?

Alfonzo Dennard and Vince Wilfork were considered steals; so were Chad Jackson and Darius Butler. Tavon Wilson and Terrence Wheatley were considered reaches; so were Sebastian Vollmer and Logan Mankins. Etc. Until somebody shows me that the pick's position in relationship to pre-draft predictions is in any way predictive of value realized, well, :yawn2:

Over on ESPN, I broke down all the "reaches" I could recall and NE hit on ~33% of them. I didn't do the same analysis for "steals" but since only one was a first rounder it seemed pretty clear that NE's hit ratio on reaches is pretty much in line with all non-first round NFL draft picks.

 

[Kontradiction]

Years ago, after paying about $140/yr for SiriusXM, I didn't renew. 1 week later the phone rings....Sirius.....they gave me 3 cheaper offers..... no no no. Finally signed up for.....5 months for $24. And the week before the contract is up I call up to quit, they go thru the song and dance...no no no. Then they transfer me to the cancellation desk where I renew my 5 months $24 plan.......This has worked 5 times. My relatives now play the same game. It gets to the point where they basically ask....How much do you want to pay.
$12 /month is close to full price

It wasn't for me. I started off more expensive than that. I just have to fulfill the next two months then I will call back in and wheel and deal.

If you're talking in terms or statistics outside of Casey Hayward I'd be curious to know who you view as outperforming Wilson in that round or even the 3rd.

Look at the snaps, the stats, watch the game tape; there wasn't a safety taken after Wilson who was even close.

I already mentioned two such players outside of safety in this thread. Outside of the first two safeties drafted, this was a week class. I would have skipped Wilson altogether and gone after James or T.Y. Hilton (who were drafted in the third). Two players that could have came in and made immediate impacts at two positions of need (KR and WR).

Yes, but it's a generality with plenty of exceptions.

That's why labeling a pick a "reach" based on pre-draft media reports is so problematic, and why Deus' simple-minded dogmatic definitions were idiotic.

A lot of apparent "reaches" on draft day turn out, based on reporting over the subsequent few weeks, not to have been reaches at all. Vollmer was one such. (Of course, given that he made Second Team All-Pro quickly, he turned out to actually be a steal.)

Vollmer was still a reach. He just happened to be a reach that worked out.

Deion Branch, Logan Mankins and even Devin McCourty

All reaches that worked out for the team, though I'm not sure how big of a reach McCourty was. Some reaches work out, some do not.

 

[Danger Zone]

Re: Re: Patriots Training Camp, Day 12 (@ Philadephia)

A reach is only a reach when a team could have gotten said player for a higher/worse pick.

But anyone that says they can predict and/or know with any accuracy what 32 teams are going to do is lying or deceiving themselves to the point of being an idiot.

And then theres all the inside minute-to-minute information that must be swarming around that the mass media just doesnt pick up on.

That all said.

Yeah, it does seem like Bill might have been able to wait until a later round or trade down in the round for a few of these picks.

But even Bill in constrast to his apparent obsession with value probably does ask himself: Would I rather overpay a bit to have this kid guaranteed or risk not having him at all?

 

[Kontradiction]

A reach is only a reach when a team could have gotten said player for a higher/worse pick.

But anyone that says they can predict and/or know with any accuracy what 32 teams are going to do is lying or deceiving themselves to the point of being an idiot.

And then theres all the inside minute-to-minute information that must be swarming around that the mass media just doesnt pick up on.

Like Harmon, if you look at the safety projections last year vs. where the safeties were actually drafted, it doesn't seem as if too many teams were going to beat the doors down for Tavon Wilson to justify jumping up five rounds to grab him. If one team would have, would it have been an Earth shattering loss?

In the end, he was still a reach. But, as I said before, he's a reach that could have been justified if he played at a second round level ala Mankins and Vollmer. To date, he has not.

That all said.

Yeah, it does seem like Bill might have been able to wait until a later round or trade down in the round for a few of these picks.

But even Bill in constrast to his apparent obsession with value probably does ask himself: Would I rather overpay a bit to have this kid guaranteed or risk not having him at all?

You're talking about a guy that's never been about overpaying for anything. So, if this were the case, Belichick should probably have a psychological evaluation then have his ability to draft safeties removed from him.

 

[patchick]

Over on ESPN, I broke down all the "reaches" I could recall and NE hit on ~33% of them. I didn't do the same analysis for "steals" but since only one was a first rounder it seemed pretty clear that NE's hit ratio on reaches is pretty much in line with all non-first round NFL draft picks.

Thanks, that helps. I also suspect that part of the issue with fan perception of "reaches" is that we don't adjust enough for the tightening of the talent curve over the course of the draft.

If, for the sake of argument, you take the Jimmy Johnson chart at face value, then taking Tavon Wilson at #48 when "consensus" had him as a round 5/6 value is no bigger a reach than spending #11 on a guy rated around #16...and Jerod Mayo is easily the biggest reach in BB's whole tenure here.

 

[captain stone]

ridiculous...menage a trois NEVER works out in the end..

I'd still like to find out for myself, if you don't mind.

 

[Oswlek]

Thanks, that helps. I also suspect that part of the issue with fan perception of "reaches" is that we don't adjust enough for the tightening of the talent curve over the course of the draft.

If, for the sake of argument, you take the Jimmy Johnson chart at face value, then taking Tavon Wilson at #48 when "consensus" had him as a round 5/6 value is no bigger a reach than spending #11 on a guy rated around #16...and Jerod Mayo is easily the biggest reach in BB's whole tenure here.

Excellent point.

Something else I found interesting when looking at all the selections is that NE seems to either hit reaches out of the park or whiff entirely. IIRC, the only one that made noteworthy contributions without ever starting was Bethel Johnson.

Not a big sample, so it could be a coincidence, or maybe there is some common thread between them that offers such upside and volatility.

 

[patchick]

If, for the sake of argument, you take the Jimmy Johnson chart at face value, then taking Tavon Wilson at #48 when "consensus" had him as a round 5/6 value is no bigger a reach than spending #11 on a guy rated around #16...and Jerod Mayo is easily the biggest reach in BB's whole tenure here.

Just following up with a little blast from the past on Mayo -- here's a roundup of mocks from 8 different national writers the morning of the 2008 draft. None of them had Jerod Mayo going higher than #29!

Massive "reach." Huge. But not recalled nearly as much as Mankins, Wilson, Vollmer, et al, because Mayo was generally expected to go in that round.

 

[fnordcircle]

I'd still like to find out for myself, if you don't mind.

Are you asking Joker if he would mind being in a threeway with you?