Ryan Mallett: Is he as good as thought/hoped? Is he the future starting QB?

[Ring 6]

So, by extension, we cannot recover the value of a 2011 3rd, even if we get a end of the round first next year.

Huh?
A 2014 1st is better than a 2011 3rd in 2014.
In 2011 it may not be because you have to wait 3 years but in the long run a 1 is a 1.

 

[Brady6]

Huh?
A 2014 1st is better than a 2011 3rd in 2014.
In 2011 it may not be because you have to wait 3 years but in the long run a 1 is a 1.

What do you feel we would need to receive in compensation to have the Mallett selection viewed as a success?

My personal opinion is that if we received a 4th rounder in 2014 for him it was a good pick when you consider we also received value by having him as a competent backup QB for 2 full season (assuming he is the backup this season).

 

[AzPatsFan]

Billy Kilmer never won a SB and was pretty much as old as Jurgensen and certainly not a young rising star, being a 10 year vet before going to the Redskins. Jurgensen didn't split the job either, he was replaced by Kilmer (28 and 59 passes in his first 2 years they were together) then played some the next 2 when Kilmer was injured or sucked and he came in in relief.
Also to point is that the year they went to the SB Jurgensen was not on the field in any playoff games.

Lamonica was Kemps backup, and started 4 games in 4 years, and pretty much sucked.

The example you are looking for is Craig Morton and Roger Staubach, who at one point were alternative every play. Ultimately it failed and was abandoned which led to the Cowboys finally getting to a SB

Yes, with the the new guy.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Two general thoughts regarding trade value.

(1) You can, if you desire, factor in "value already realized" into the equation. What I mean by this is that Mallett has already provided value to the team by being a capable backup for the last two seasons at minimal cost (three seasons, assuming he remains on the team this year).

(2) By the same token, BB also has to consider future value to the team as well. In other words, is, [X] worth more to the team than having Mallett finish out his contract?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I was attempting to clarify the fact it would only be $20 million because we would only do it to retain his rights for the purpose of trade (Similar to Cassel entering 2009) and because the compensation for a non-exclusive franchise tag is a 1st round pick (which would likely be more than we could dream to get in a trade) we’d have no reason to tag him exclusively.

The compensation for both exclusive and non-exclusive franchise tags is TWO first-round picks. The difference is that an exclusive franchise tag prohibits the player from negotiating with other teams, while a non-exclusive tag does not.

I do have to point out that Brady currently has a 1 in 13 chance of having a season ending knee injury occur (based on his current years played)

I used the analogy (granted a smart ass one, sorry, dont take it personally) because its not just Brady getting injured (by the way its more like 1 in 200 because its the number of injuries to games, not seasons that would determine the chance of a week 1 season ender but I digress)

By this logic, the JEST have a 1 in 46 chance of winning the Super Bowl this year. :nooo:

 

[AzPatsFan]

For all you Blubberers and Protestors, I have NOT heard a single cogent plan or idea for what to do when Brady goes "Over the Hill".

Please Give me a strategy for that transitiion time, other than... deny, Deny, DENY.

Do you want to gamble, like ML Carr did, strip the Team. Then Hope you can all the way to the bottom and "Suck for Luck". If there is one in the subsequent Draft, and the new draftee turns out to be good, three poor seasons later. M L Carr did everything to stack things in the Celtics favor... and struck out.

Remember we drafted 3 QBs #1. Of which 2 were the #1 overall pick in the Draft, and ended up with one guy who got us to a SB appearance, and another who shared his way to an appearance, then disappeared forever. Once again, none of them are going to the HOF. Is that .333, or 0-3 and 0.000 batting average?

 

[Brady6]

The compensation for both exclusive and non-exclusive franchise tags is TWO first-round picks. The difference is that an exclusive franchise tag prohibits the player from negotiating with other teams, while a non-exclusive tag does not.
:

Good to know, thank you for clarifying.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Good to know, thank you for clarifying.

And now, as I re-read that, I realize it makes no sense. What I should have said was:

Non-exclusive franchise tag: two first-round picks if a team signs away the player via an offer sheet

Exclusive franchise tag: player can ONLY sign with the team issuing the tender. Once the tender is signed, of course, the team can trade the player for anything another team is willing to pay.

 

[AzPatsFan]

And now, as I re-read that, I realize it makes no sense. What I should have said was:

Non-exclusive franchise tag: two first-round picks if a team signs away the player via an offer sheet

Exclusive franchise tag: player can ONLY sign with the team issuing the tender. Once the tender is signed, of course, the team can trade the player for anything another team is willing to pay.

There is the basis for a transition strategy. Issue a non exclusive to Mallett and pay Brady, 2015. The combined QB CAP would be about $20 million, which is what many clubs are paying their singular star QB. So it is NOT financially infeasible.

If someone signs Mallett off the non-exclusive, then you have 3 #1 picks to get up to the top of the Draft, to hopefully draft a Luck type QB, you hope. Or you could match.

If no one does so, then you can spend 2015 platooning Brady and Mallett, and still keep winning. Depending on results, you can chose what to do the following season, and maybe even repeat.

Or you could cut bait at any time.

 

[Joker]

I think Brady will be cut...but if he makes the final 53 I'll support him...:amen:

 

[ctpatsfan77]

There is the basis for a transition strategy. Issue a non exclusive to Mallett and pay Brady, 2015. The combined QB CAP would be about $20 million, which is what many clubs are paying their singular star QB. So it is NOT financially infeasible.

Brady's 2015 cap hit is $13M (his salary is $7M, but $6M of signing bonus counts that year, too).

 

[supafly]

For all you Blubberers and Protestors, I have NOT heard a single cogent plan or idea for what to do when Brady goes "Over the Hill".

Please Give me a strategy for that transitiion time, other than... deny, Deny, DENY.

Do you want to gamble, like ML Carr did, strip the Team. Then Hope you can all the way to the bottom and "Suck for Luck". If there is one in the subsequent Draft, and the new draftee turns out to be good, three poor seasons later. M L Carr did everything to stack things in the Celtics favor... and struck out.

I don't deny what you're saying to have truth to it, AZ. The main "problem" (and a good problem to have) is that Brady is still proving to be in great shape and doing well even into his mid-30's, so it's not out of the realm of possibility to see him here another 5 yrs.

If you're talking about keeping Mallett on a 2nd deal then even the new 2nd deal will just about have run its course by the time Brady hangs up the cleats. We'd also have to make some assumptions that:

1.Belichick even wants Mallett for a 2nd deal

2.Mallett wants to remain a backup until the age of 30, which isn't likely

3.We'd be willing and able to meet with some middle ground regarding a reasonable pay rate that would generally be way too high for a backup QB

I think the popular consensus is that our future franchise QB is still in high school right now, and we won't know who that is for another few years at a minimum. Of course anything can happen to Brady between now and then, and that's why Belichick found it prudent to take Mallett in the 3rd round just as he had done with KOC too. It's always a need to have a decent backup so he isn't afraid to "waste" a higher round draft pick to cover the backup role.

I don't think anyone is trying to ignore the future, but the fact that most of us are expecting Brady to stick around for another 5 or so yrs certainly comes into play, and that's one of the main reasons why keeping Mallett may not prove to be successful.

 

[Brady6]

And now, as I re-read that, I realize it makes no sense. What I should have said was:

Non-exclusive franchise tag: two first-round picks if a team signs away the player via an offer sheet

Exclusive franchise tag: player can ONLY sign with the team issuing the tender. Once the tender is signed, of course, the team can trade the player for anything another team is willing to pay.

I got what you were implying; no worries

 

[Brady6]

Brady's 2015 cap hit is $13M (his salary is $7M, but $6M of signing bonus counts that year, too).

Well people say you leave the world the same way you come in, I'm sure Brady would want to end his time as a starting QB the same way he started it, with his backup (Bledsoe) making more than him :

 

[JoeSixPat]

There are 2 tags exclusive and non exclusive, the exclusive one was $20,464,000 in 2012; the tag for a non exclusive was $14,896,000 in 2012. If the team was to franchise Mallett it would only be to trade ala Matt Cassel entering 2009's season so if that was the case they'd use non exclusive because if another team signed him they'd have to provide a 1st round draft choice which would be way better then we'd be getting in a trade in all likely hood.

I must be missing something.

There's not enough demand for him now to warrant a halfway decent draft pick with a very low salary.

Why exactly will teams change their minds, pay him $15 million and give us a 1st round pick?

Don't get me wrong - I don't dislike Mallett. He's better than Rohan Davey, Michael Bishop, Damon Huard, Matt Guttierez and a long list of backup QBs many Patsfans today can't believe weren't traded for first round picks.

He's great to have as a backup - and who knows - perhaps if another team suffers a major QB injury he might still be traded.

But if he IS a future starting QB, I sure hope it's not for the Patriots, because I like the one we have signed relatively affordably for the next several years.

There WILL be a QB who follows Brady. I don't doubt Belichick gives that thought from time to time. But chances are that's NOT going to be the type of QB who is content to sit on the bench until he's 30. He'll be a competitor - like Brady was.

 

[Ring 6]

There is the basis for a transition strategy. Issue a non exclusive to Mallett and pay Brady, 2015. The combined QB CAP would be about $20 million, which is what many clubs are paying their singular star QB. So it is NOT financially infeasible.

If someone signs Mallett off the non-exclusive, then you have 3 #1 picks to get up to the top of the Draft, to hopefully draft a Luck type QB, you hope. Or you could match.

If no one does so, then you can spend 2015 platooning Brady and Mallett, and still keep winning. Depending on results, you can chose what to do the following season, and maybe even repeat.

Or you could cut bait at any time.

Platoon Tom Brady and Ryan mallet?
Why would you ever do that.
As for a team giving up 2 1s to have tee right to pay 20mill to mallet I can't think of a less likely scenario.

 

[Ring 6]

Yes, with the the new guy.

But Craig Morton was hardly an aging superstar veteran.
The dynamic was Landry was afraid to hand it over to staubach so he eased him in.
Craig Morton at that point was closer to Ryan Fitzpatrick than Tom Brady

 

[Sciz]

For all you Blubberers and Protestors, I have NOT heard a single cogent plan or idea for what to do when Brady goes "Over the Hill".

Please Give me a strategy for that transitiion time, other than... deny, Deny, DENY.

Nobody is claiming to have a better strategy for after Brady is gone than you. Everybody is saying that for the 2015, 2016, and 2017 seasons, your strategy makes absolutely no sense.

 

[Ring 6]

For all you Blubberers and Protestors, I have NOT heard a single cogent plan or idea for what to do when Brady goes "Over the Hill".

Please Give me a strategy for that transitiion time, other than... deny, Deny, DENY.

Do you want to gamble, like ML Carr did, strip the Team. Then Hope you can all the way to the bottom and "Suck for Luck". If there is one in the subsequent Draft, and the new draftee turns out to be good, three poor seasons later. M L Carr did everything to stack things in the Celtics favor... and struck out.

Remember we drafted 3 QBs #1. Of which 2 were the #1 overall pick in the Draft, and ended up with one guy who got us to a SB appearance, and another who shared his way to an appearance, then disappeared forever. Once again, none of them are going to the HOF. Is that .333, or 0-3 and 0.000 batting average?

The plan would be to have a 2nd and maybe 3rd string QB on the roster that is being developed to take over, look to free agency, trade, or draft if there isn't one.
I don't think taking a guy who may be that developmental guy and paying him franchise money then sacrificing winning by platooning with Brady accomplishes any of that.
If Mallet goes before Brady is done then we go get someone else.
There is nothing to tell us that Mallet is the answer.
Spending franchise level money weakens the team with Brady here and platooning them says you are giving up on Bradys final years(s) in order to know if one guy out of everyone available might be the answer.
There are and will be dozens of alternatives to Ryan Mallett. Not being on our roster today isn't really a worry.

A bad plan is not better than a plan that says it can't be dealt with yet, so deal with it when its time.

 

[AzPatsFan]

The plan would be to have a 2nd and maybe 3rd string QB on the roster that is being developed to take over, look to free agency, trade, or draft if there isn't one.
I don't think taking a guy who may be that developmental guy and paying him franchise money then sacrificing winning by platooning with Brady accomplishes any of that.
If Mallet goes before Brady is done then we go get someone else.
There is nothing to tell us that Mallet is the answer.
Spending franchise level money weakens the team with Brady here and platooning them says you are giving up on Bradys final years(s) in order to know if one guy out of everyone available might be the answer.
There are and will be dozens of alternatives to Ryan Mallett. Not being on our roster today isn't really a worry.

A bad plan is not better than a plan that says it can't be dealt with yet, so deal with it when its time.

I REALLY LIKE your plan. So would an Ostrich! Stick your head in the sand; and deny Reality.