4 Picks for #29

[patchick]

So basically you would have traded the #29 with Philly for their pick plus a 7th?

Nope, not what I was saying at all. I was making the case that an essential reversal of the trade at #35 would be taken as the Patriots getting fleeced -- even if they ended up with the same player they would have taken at #29, PLUS a late pick. If an outcome of Woods + a 7th is poor value for #29, taking Woods at that pick must be an even worse move, no?

More broadly, the players taken at #29-32 were not players I would have considered with the pick. Everybody else available at #29 is, obviously, still available! And now they're realistically positioned to get two of their top remaining targets rather than one, and still have some picks left over to play with.

How they actually use the picks is TBD. But from the vantage point of this moment with the board as it is, I'd rather have picks #52, 83, 102 and 229 than any single player who was available at #29.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yeah, sort of like AH.

Since Pioli's hands were removed BB's drafting overall has been excellent. Do you care to dispute that?

First, this has nothing to do with the discussion. Second, Belichick was overruling his scouts in 2006, for example, so what does that have to do with Pioli versus any other GM?

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

I'm fairly sure the only player BB would have drafted at #29 if he had been there was Syl, who went to Denver in pick before.

According to Nick Caserio they had several players in mind at pick 29.

NC: No, like we talked about the other day, we were ready to pick. We had a few players that we actually had in mind that we were going to talk about to consider picking, and then we decided to make the move that we did. So no question, we had players , a player, we would have taken.

Nick Caserio Press Conference Transcript

 

[BB4PRez]

It's a matter of odds. What they did was lower the probability of a hit on any given pick (increased risk) in comparison to the first round pick, while increasing the number of times they'll be able to play the odds.

This is correct. It all comes down to how they rate the player at the position and the relative risk of trading down. This year they didn't see the relative difference in talent to justify staying put so they moved down to increase thier odds taking more chances. I don't think the Pats like this draft class. It wouldn't surpise me if they try to trade some of the picks they just picked up for pick next year (ie trade one of the late 2s for a 1 next year or one of the 3s for a 2 next year.)

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm fairly sure the only player BB would have drafted at #29 if he had been there was Syl, who went to Denver in pick before.

This is a draft that has been panned as only having 12-15 players that graded out to a 1st. It also has 75 players that grade out to 2nd or 3rd. Others have claimed that there are more draftable players than last year.

If you use a trade calculator that does not suppress 2nd rounders as the common old one does, the deal shows up as a 19% gain for us. That doesn't include the enhanced ability to package and deal around for falling players and maximinze value.

It's clear to me that we'll get better value out of these picks than what the Vikings drafted. What a poor route runner. I'm sure BB would have chosen someone like Woods or Carradine instead.

I used what is used, which is the draft trade value chart. The value was within 5 points, which is about as close to dead on as it gets. You can try spinning all you want, but the Patriots got fair value, nothing more and nothing less.

 

[PP2]

It's a matter of odds. What they did was lower the probability of a hit on any given pick (increased risk) in comparison to the first round pick, while increasing the number of times they'll be able to play the odds.

I think that sliding scale effect of odds of a hit going down per round, is cancelled out by the ability of the Pats to now move up and down the board towards the players they feel have the most value.

The ability to move up and down with a great deal of flexibility resulting from the largess of picks we have now, to me, is of more value than having one high round pick that would have been a 50/50 proposition and if it ends up being a misfire, the cap hit is higher.

The lack of flexibility would have forced the selection of a player we did not necessarily want, and that in itself is an increased risk.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

still good value there..and i think they trade up now in the 2nd

 

[Deus Irae]

I think that sliding scale effect of odds of a hit going down per round, is cancelled out by the ability of the Pats to now move up and down the board towards the players they feel have the most value.

The ability to move up and down with a great deal of flexibility resulting from the largess of picks we have now, to me, is of more value than having one high round pick that would have been a 50/50 proposition and if it ends up being a misfire, the cap hit is higher.

The lack of flexibility would have forced the selection of a player we did not necessarily want, and that in itself is an increased risk.

That's fine and all, but it doesn't make what I'd written nonsense. You don't mind the type of risk adjustment they made. That's your choice (I appreciate your basic position, and the trade down is something I'd discussed and supported in other pre-draft threads as a way to drop down and still keep ahead of the WR run, while getting the ammo to move up with the other Rd 2 pick if needed.), but that didn't make my point wrong or nonsensical. Also, your last line is pure speculation, and I'll leave it at that.

 

[Off The Grid]

The draft is a crapshoot, Gronk & Vollmer were 2nd rnd picks others were busts.

With 2 picks you might take Gronk & Butler, with 1 pick you just take Butler.....

For The Win, Brother 13!! :rocker:

 

[Off The Grid]

Totally totally agree. I posted in another thread that we got $1.01 on the dollar on the "old" trade value chart and $1.93 using the "new" one that actually in my opinion is more realistic as it uses actual players that were selected in the respective slots and a 30 year draft history. $1.93 on the dollar!!!! YEA! WE FLEECED THEM! THERE IS ZERO DOUBT HERE!

True Story!! :rocker:

 

[Off The Grid]

Don't be surprised if he trades one of the twos for a one in next years draft. The board will melt down.

Please, God, let it be the RedSkins. ray:

1 ~ Griffin's scrambling back from Injury is as at high risk for a Season Ender.

2 ~ His 2nd does not play that Offense.

3 ~ Their Roster lacks Depth of Talent on a Jets Level.

4 ~ Sophomore Slump: Every Defensive Coordinator in the League is gonna hit the Zone Read with everything they've got. Michael Vick sucked in'is 2nd full Year in Philly, despite being surrounded by the erstwhile "Dream Team" ~ as I predicted, loud and long, by the way ~ and how's that WildCat working, these days??

The RedSkins are Prime Candidates for a 4-12/3-13 FACEPLANT!! :bricks:

We could be looking at...



For those who haven't seen this Magnificence 8 million Times: :rocker:

VIDEO: Jadeveon Clowney

 

[Off The Grid]

The possibilities inherent in that remarkable Heist seduce me. If we trade down a few more times ~ and we should have no problems doing so ~ #29 could actually parlay into several of the following Prospects:

QB Sean Renfree ~ 6th/7th Round

OC Barrett Jones ~ 3rd/4th Round

OG Hugh Thornton ~ 4th/5th Round

OG Joe Tretter ~ 6th/7th Round

OT Reid Fragel ~ 4th/5th Round

TE Travis Kelce ~ 3rd/4th Round

XE Jordan Reed ~ 3rd/4th Round

SE Christopher Harper ~ 4th/5th Round

SE Corey Fuller ~ 6th/7th Round

FL Marquise Goodwin ~ 4th/5th Round

XB Marcus Lattimore ~ 4th/5th Round

XB Kerwynn Williams ~ 6th/7th Round

XB Latavius Murray ~ 6th/7th Round

XB Damon Harper ~ 6th/7th Round

DT Brandon Williams ~ 3rd/4th Round

DF DeVonte Holloman ~ 4th/5th Round

MF Keith Pough ~ 6th/7th Round

SS Duke Williams ~ 5th/6th Round

FS Josh Evans ~ 4th/5th Round

Except for Barrett Jones & Christopher Harper, I believe that every single Prospect on that list commands tremendous Impact Potential as a top level Starter in the NFL ~ and Jones & Harper are the kind of guys who're virtually guaranteed to be Starters and savvy, steadying Rocks for a Decade or so.

Every Year, the Fears, Prejudices, and Foolishness of NFL Leadership render the Prospects of dozens upon dozens of highly talented & motivated Prospects virtually barren.

Most decision makers ~ it seems to me ~ get caught up in Statistics, Combine Numbers, and a misperceived notion of Pedigree, as well as their own lack of Vision, Judgment, and Testicular Fortitude.

That ~ and my belief that insufficient Depth of Talent has cost us Six SuperBowls ~ is why I am so maniacally aggressive in my Relentless Pursuit of Draft Picks.

~ I don't want Scrubs backing up our Starters and inevitably stepping in in the PlayOffs.

~ I want future Starters & Studs & All Pros doing so.

And because of the continuing foolishness of most GM's...it's quite possible to have that.

Every Year.

 

[Deus Irae]

Again, it was an even deal, not a fleecing:

According to the old Cowboys draft trade chart, the Patriots and Vikings were even.

Vikings received: No. 29 (640 points)

Patriots received a total of 648:

Patriots' deal even on trade chart - Extra Points - Boston.com

 

[Urgent]

We just hope this isn't a deal where they are going into battle, and think those guns are way too expensive for what they offer, but there is a much better deal on knives.

 

[Off The Grid]

Really need a run on QB's here in round 2 to help us out and not have to try and trade up.

So very nice talent that will be there

Here is Mayock's 30-80

31. Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State
32. Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
33. Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M
34. Kevin Minter,ILB, LSU
35. Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
36. Arthur Brown, ILB, Kansas State
37. Keenan Allen, WR, California
38. Jonathan Cyprien, FS, Florida International
39. Margus Hunt, DE, SMU
40. Kawann Short, DT, Purdue

41. EJ Manuel, QB, Florida State
42. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
43. Matt Barkley, QB, USC
44. Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia
45. Robert Woods, WR, USC
46. Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
47. Larry Warford,, OG, Kentucky
48. Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State
49. Jamie Collins, OLB, Southern Mississippi
50. Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse

51. Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State
52. Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin
53. Terrance Williams,, WR, Baylor
54. Cornelius Washington, OLB, Georgia
55. Brian Schwenke, C, California
56. Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State
57. D.J. Swearinger, SS, South Carolina
58. Jonathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State
59. Darius Slay, CB, Mississippi State
60. Aaron Dobson, WR, Marshall

61. Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
62. Bennie Logan, DT, LSU
63. Giovani Bernard, RB, North Carolina
64. Sio Moore, OLB, Connecticut
65. Jon Bostic, OLB, Florida
66. Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB, Connecticut
67. B.W. Webb, CB, William & Mary
68. J.J. Wilcox, FS, Georgia Southern
69. Khaseem Greene, OLB, Rutgers
70. Brian Winters, OG, Kent

71. John Jenkins, DT, Georgia
72. Dwayne Gratz, CB, Connecticut
73. Stedman Bailey, WR, West Virginia
74. Robert Alford, CB, Southeastern Louisiana
75. Andre Ellington, RB, Clemson
76. Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego State
77. William Gholston, DE, Michigan State
78. Quinton Patton, WR, Louisiana Tech
79. Alex Okafor, DE, Texas
80. Travis Kelce, TE, Cincinnati

81. Mike Glennon, QB, North Carolina State
82. David Bakhtiari, OT, Colorado
83. Brandon Williams, DT, Missouri Southern State
84. David Quessenberry, OT, San Jose State
85. Jordan Poyer, CB, Oregon State
86. Tyler Bray, QB, Tennessee
87. Christine Michael, RB, Texas A&M
88. Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon State
89. John Simon, DT, Ohio State
90. Dallas Thomas, OT, Tennessee

91. Barrett Jones, OG, Alabama
92. Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin
93. Marquise Goodwin, WR, Texas
94. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Michigan State
95. Shamarko Thomas, SS, Syracuse
96. Vance McDonald, TE, Rice
97. Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama
98. Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU
99. David Amerson, CB, North Carolina State
100. Johnathan Franklin, RB, UCLA

If Tank Carradine was still there at #52, I would absolutely lose my schytte.

Is that an OverShare Violation??

 

[Off The Grid]

Again, it was an even deal, not a fleecing:



Patriots' deal even on trade chart - Extra Points - Boston.com

Again: You're wrong, which is usually the result when you express yourself.

*In all seriousness ~ to the rest of you, most'f whom have open minds, I think:

1 ~ Obviously, there are no Absolutes when you're talking about a Trade. We can source all the Historical Data we want, or we can source the classic Draft Value Chart, but at the end of the day, it's Opinion, not Fact.

2 ~ Having said that...We ROOKED'M!! :rocker:

 

[Don_the_patfan]

Again, it was an even deal, not a fleecing:


Patriots' deal even on trade chart - Extra Points - Boston.com

You are correct. So please compare what the pats got from vikings with what the raiders got from the dolphins to move to #3, and what the cowboys got to move back in the first (31st I believe).

 

[Deus Irae]

Again: You're wrong, which is usually the result when you express yourself.

You may be doing a bit of self-projecting here, as I'm clearly not wrong. The numbers don't lie.

 

[Off The Grid]

It's a matter of odds. What they did was lower the probability of a hit on any given pick (increased risk) in comparison to the first round pick, while increasing the number of times they'll be able to play the odds.

Yeah, sort of like Aaron Hernandez.

Since Pioli's hands were removed BB's drafting overall has been excellent.

Do you care to dispute that?

Well said, Sir!!

I may have issues with many Coach Bill Picks and Trades he didn't make ~ and I DO!! ~ but all in all he's been awesome, the last few Years!! :rocker:

 

[Deus Irae]

You are correct. Context is missing. Please compare what the pats got with what the raiders got from the dolphins to move to #3 and what the cowboys got to move back in the first (31st I believe) and compare them please.

Context is not missing. This is a simple thing.

The Patriots and Vikings got together on a trade where the teams ended up with equal value. What they do with the picks is irrelevant. What other teams agreed to on trades is irrelevant.