4 Picks for #29

[patchick]

The Numbers??

This is probably obvious to all of us board denizens, but...you all know how to tell when another poster is playing The Definition Game, right?

It goes like this:

1. Make a provocative statement that appears misguided on its face.
2. Wait patiently for a flood of responses arguing with it.
3. Casually mention that you were, of course, following a particular non-intuitive definition of the term in question, by which the popular understanding of the topic is technically "wrong."
4. Sit back in amusement as others bang their heads against the wall trying to win a game where you wrote the rules.

Examples:

The sky is not blue. ("Blue" is, of course, defined by the global standards bodies as the color value corresponding to #0000FF.)

A single 1st-round draft choice carries less risk than a dozen 2nd-round picks. ("Risk" is, of course, defined by the average risk of each individual pick in a portfolio, regardless of the number of picks.)


When a round of The Definition Game is launched, everyone is welcome to play! But nobody has to. It's perfectly acceptable to just say "Sorry dude, didn't realize you were playing The Definition Game. I'll pass."

 

[patsfan13]

These charts also need to be weighted

RELATIVE TO THE TALENT DISTRIBUTION FOR THAT PARTICULAR DRAFT

Each draft is UNIQUE.

Some drafts have top heavy talent distributions some h back loaded talent distributions, some may have a relative even distribution of talent, the idea of a static draft value chart seems quaint and antiquated.

Each team has their own board where each player is graded, so if they are somewhat sophisticated they will adjust their draft pick value chart to normalize it for the talent distribution for that draft.


Lets take an oversimplified set of draft grade for a couple of drafts .
So our scored for the players in the draft go from 4-10 for example, take the top 100 players on the board:

Draft A: 15 players 10 grade, 25 players 9 grade, 20 players 8, 30 players 7, 10 players 6

Draft B: 10 players 10 grade, 10 players 9 grade, 80 players 8 grade.


We can see that the trade values of picks 50-100 are much higher for Draft B than draft A, so considerations when trading picks will be different when you board looks in Draft A as opposed to Draft B above.


If I as a fan understand this my guess is that BB and Ernie Adams have thought about it and play the draft accordingly.

We don't know what the Pats board looks like but the Vikes may be worried about keeping their jobs while BB is busy playing draft chess.

 

[IllegalContact]

Going by this chart which has been developed over the short sample size of the last two drafts, the results are:

Patriots:
29 (51.07)
Overall = 51.07

Vikings:
52 (29.41)
83 (13.98)
102 (8.86)
229 (0.46)
Overall = 52.71

Pretty much a wash.

Apologies if this has been posted before (I have not read the whole thread)!

IMO the real value in this trade lies in the flexibility it now allows the Patriots to take multiple players of perceived talent level similar to pick 29 in the second and third rounds.

the problem with these number is that it doesn't account for the fact that one year you can get an OT with the 17th pick in the first round (solder) who is every bit the part of the top 2 guys taken this year...while both may have more experienced, neither has the physical ceiling that solder has.....joeckl is downright slow

lets see one of them do this to Spikes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nse5H8qDgVM

 

[chasa]

This is probably obvious to all of us board denizens, but...you all know how to tell when another poster is playing The Definition Game, right?

It goes like this:

1. Make a provocative statement that appears misguided on its face.
2. Wait patiently for a flood of responses arguing with it.
3. Casually mention that you were, of course, following a particular non-intuitive definition of the term in question, by which the popular understanding of the topic is technically "wrong."
4. Sit back in amusement as others bang their heads against the wall trying to win a game where you wrote the rules.

Examples:

The sky is not blue. ("Blue" is, of course, defined by the global standards bodies as the color value corresponding to #0000FF.)

A single 1st-round draft choice carries less risk than a dozen 2nd-round picks. ("Risk" is, of course, defined by the average risk of each individual pick in a portfolio, regardless of the number of picks.)


When a round of The Definition Game is launched, everyone is welcome to play! But nobody has to. It's perfectly acceptable to just say "Sorry dude, didn't realize you were playing The Definition Game. I'll pass."

Did you just become batman to my joker?

 

[Synovia]

A single 1st-round draft choice carries less risk than a dozen 2nd-round picks. ("Risk" is, of course, defined by the average risk of each individual pick in a portfolio, regardless of the number of picks.)

This is a bit silly. You're way more likely to get a starter out of a dozen second round draft picks than a single first rounder. Thats probably true up until you get to about 1.3.

A dozen 2nd rounders are certainly less risk, they're just a lot more expensive.

 

[Off The Grid]

This is probably obvious to all of us board denizens, but...you all know how to tell when another poster is playing The Definition Game, right?

It goes like this:

1. Make a provocative statement that appears misguided on its face.
2. Wait patiently for a flood of responses arguing with it.
3. Casually mention that you were, of course, following a particular non-intuitive definition of the term in question, by which the popular understanding of the topic is technically "wrong."
4. Sit back in amusement as others bang their heads against the wall trying to win a game where you wrote the rules.

Examples:

The sky is not blue. ("Blue" is, of course, defined by the global standards bodies as the color value corresponding to #0000FF.)

A single 1st-round draft choice carries less risk than a dozen 2nd-round picks. ("Risk" is, of course, defined by the average risk of each individual pick in a portfolio, regardless of the number of picks.)


When a round of The Definition Game is launched, everyone is welcome to play! But nobody has to. It's perfectly acceptable to just say "Sorry dude, didn't realize you were playing The Definition Game. I'll pass."

Damn, I love reading your Stuff.

1 ~ Yeah, I know how it is with The Definition Game.

2 ~ But Deuce Awry amuses me, and I enjoy pointing and laughing at'is fascinating Arrogance.

3 ~ To the Deuce Awries of the World: Conviction is no substitute for Accuracy.

4 ~ Yes, I know that Fundamental Truth is lost on you. Carry on.

 

[DocHoliday]

adjusted the revisionist history

Look at it 10 years of drafting and you realize it's not that good. He left out a considerable amount of busts.

 

[IllegalContact]

Look at it 10 years of drafting and you realize it's not that good. He left out a considerable amount of busts.

sure......and you failed to accurately describe the contributions of several players......so what

 

[DocHoliday]

sure......and you failed to accurately describe the contributions of several players......so what

The main point was that the Patriots have drafted badly past the third round if you look at the past decade. The fact that I didn't accurately praise some JAGs and rotational subs doesn't change that.

 

[Off The Grid]

Felger has math problems. He says that he keeps hearing they traded "one pick for four picks" and said no they didn't and they only got three. Last time I checked they gave Minnesota one pick and got four picks in return. So he is wrong and "they" are right.

Old Feltcher...

He ain't too bright.

 

[Off The Grid]

These charts also need to be weighted

RELATIVE TO THE TALENT DISTRIBUTION FOR THAT PARTICULAR DRAFT

Each draft is UNIQUE.

This is true, of course.

1 ~ There is no Absolute Truth regarding Draft Pick Value. There is a bottomless depth to the Variables that go into the Value of every single Pick, so to pursue an Absolute Intrinsic Value to any Pick is demonstrably Foolish.

2 ~ Having noted that, I would nevertheless argue that one can theoretically pursue guidelines of Relative Value, based either on Historical Trades ~ whence I suspect the Jones & Johnson Draft Pick Value Chart is derived ~ or from Historical Performance of Picks, based on whatever Credentials you deem most applicable, such as ProFootBallReferences's Approximate Value, whence this favorite of mine is derived...

...and Good Luck With That!!

3 ~ I would further stipulate ~ for emphasis ~ that the Very Idea that one can conclusively quantify the Intrinsic Value of any Pick ~ in a Game where Defensive Tackles generally make very few Sacks and legendary Offensive Guards like Jerry Kramer & Fuzzy Thurston still await their Inductions ~ is so clearly and obviously asinine that one can only pray that one needs not point that out.

4 ~ I am persuaded that the Patriots ravaged the Vikings in this Trade.

5 ~ But that is of course only my Opinion.

 

[BradyFTW!]

arrington is part of the depth, he got owned in the game, would you rather have him gaurd welker or would you want mathieu?

I'd rather have Mathieu, but the fact that we already have Arrington means that it isn't nearly as big of a need as a number of other positions where we simply don't have anyone else who can do the job.

 

[BradyFTW!]

True, you can find the occasional diamond in the rough in the later rounds, but for the most part I'll take my chances trying to land an impact player in the first round rather than the 7th round.

Also, it should be noted that this teams situation is somewhat unique. The Patriots have a qb whose window is closing rapidly. The team is near elite and in need of impact players, not 3rd and 4th rnd picks to develop for the 2017 season. They need to win NOW!

The Patriots approach to the draft as well as the free agent market has no urgency to it. Seems to me that the Patriots are content to stay in the same holding pattern that they have been in for nearly a decade. We need quality, not quantity.

If you think that any team has ever drafted a player as a four-year development project, then I've got nothing to say to you.

 

[hovis]

This is true, of course.

1 ~ There is no Absolute Truth regarding Draft Pick Value. There is a bottomless depth to the Variables that go into the Value of every single Pick, so to pursue an Absolute Intrinsic Value to any Pick is demonstrably Foolish.

2 ~ Having noted that, I would nevertheless argue that one can theoretically pursue guidelines of Relative Value, based either on Historical Trades ~ whence I suspect the Jones & Johnson Draft Pick Value Chart is derived ~ or from Historical Performance of Picks, based on whatever Credentials you deem most applicable, such as ProFootBallReferences's Approximate Value, whence this favorite of mine is derived...

...and Good Luck With That!!

3 ~ I would further stipulate ~ for emphasis ~ that the Very Idea that one can conclusively quantify the Intrinsic Value of any Pick ~ in a Game where Defensive Tackles generally make very few Sacks and legendary Offensive Guards like Jerry Kramer & Fuzzy Thurston still await their Inductions ~ is so clearly and obviously asinine that one can only pray that one needs not point that out.



4 ~ I am persuaded that the Patriots ravaged the Vikings in this Trade.

5 ~ But that is of course only my Opinion.

A wise man once said, "You're trying to make this art a science."

 

[ausbacker]

We've already got a direct comparison to effectively rate this draft swap - Patterson vs Dobson or if you're a purist - Patterson vs Collins & Dobson (with picks still to come).

Personally, the value already looks pleasant for mine.

 

[Off The Grid]

This is true, of course.

1 ~ There is no Absolute Truth regarding Draft Pick Value. There is a bottomless depth to the Variables that go into the Value of every single Pick, so to pursue an Absolute Intrinsic Value to any Pick is demonstrably Foolish.

2 ~ Having noted that, I would nevertheless argue that one can theoretically pursue guidelines of Relative Value, based either on Historical Trades ~ whence I suspect the Jones & Johnson Draft Pick Value Chart is derived ~ or from Historical Performance of Picks, based on whatever Credentials you deem most applicable, such as ProFootBallReferences's Approximate Value, whence this favorite of mine is derived...

...and Good Luck With That!!

3 ~ I would further stipulate ~ for emphasis ~ that the Very Idea that one can conclusively quantify the Intrinsic Value of any Pick ~ in a Game where Defensive Tackles generally make very few Sacks and legendary Offensive Guards like Jerry Kramer & Fuzzy Thurston still await their Inductions ~ is so clearly and obviously asinine that one can only pray that one needs not point that out.

4 ~ I am persuaded that the Patriots ravaged the Vikings in this Trade.

5 ~ But that is of course only my Opinion.

A wise man once said, "You're trying to make this art a science."

I'm sure it comforts you to think so.

Good luck with that.