4 Picks for #29

[Deus Irae]

Nope. It's not a win-win yet at all. And I've been beating the drum for a trade down for, literally, months now. The fact of the matter is that this team needed extra picks in the mid rounds and another second rounder with the way the draft was going to fall. The only beef I have is the location of the additional second rounder vs. the needs we have. I'm taking a "well okay, but let's wait and see" approach because the team may very well need to trade up.

I think you and I both went them to jump up and get ahead of the WR run, and maybe also jump up to get ahead of the safeties as well, but I think we're also both content to see how it plays out.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Nope. It's not a win-win yet at all. And I've been beating the drum for a trade down for, literally, months now. The fact of the matter is that this team needed extra picks in the mid rounds and another second rounder with the way the draft was going to fall. The only beef I have is the location of the additional second rounder vs. the needs we have. I'm taking a "well okay, but let's wait and see" approach because the team may very well need to trade up.

Yep, like I said in the other thread I'm fine with a trade down, just worried about the length of it. Hopefully it plays out in our favor

 

[grux]

adjusted the revisionist history

That more like it. I also forgot to add Tom Brady.

Alfonzo Dennard (Unusual scenario, everyone knew he was high round talent)
Stevan Ridley (Above average)
Ryan Mallett (We don't know if he's talent. All he has is promise)
Marcus Cannon played in 23 games in 2 years
Aaron Hernandez (Gold)
Zoltan Mesko (Most punters and kickers are picked low anyway)
Julian Edelman (Above average, remains to be seen)
Matt Slater (ST)
David Thomas (So good he's not even on the team)
Stephen Gostkowski (Kickers usually found this low)
Nick Kaczur started 62 games for the pats
James Sanders started 50 games and had 8 INT's for the pata
Matt Cassel - vrabel was added at the request of the pats
Asante Samuel (talent)
Dan Koppen (talent)
Tully Banta-Cain started 21 games and had 23.5 sacks
Jarvis Green played in 121 games, started 46, had 28 sacks
David Givens (talent)

 

[BB4PRez]

Alfonzo Dennard (Unusual scenario, everyone knew he was high round talent)
Stevan Ridley (Above average)
Ryan Mallett (We don't know if he's talent. All he has is promise)
Marcus Cannon (Hasn't contributed much yet)
Aaron Hernandez (Gold)
Zoltan Mesko (Most punters and kickers are picked low anyway)
Julian Edelman (Above average, remains to be seen)
Matt Slater (ST)
David Thomas (So good he's not even on the team)
Stephen Gostkowski (Kickers usually found this low)
Nick Kaczur (Bust)
James Sanders (Not on team)
Matt Cassel (netted a second when packaged with Vrabel)
Asante Samuel (talent)
Dan Koppen (talent)
Tully Banta-Cain (not on team)
Jarvis Green (scrub FA)
David Givens (talent)

Not a very good pickup if you ask me. I get wary when we trade down because the Patriots seem to be unsure of their own talent evaluation, relying on numbers rather than talent evaluation.

Granted, it's been better in recent years, particularly in the last three, so we'll see.

DocHolliday made a good list everyone of the above players contributed. Of course he missed one:
6th Round - Tom Brady - still on team

I understand the desire for talent but if they don't see much of a difference in talent from the 29th to 60th pick (as was widely reported by many before the draft) it is worth it to take more swings.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Yep, like I said in the other thread I'm fine with a trade down, just worried about the length of it. Hopefully it plays out in our favor

I thought it was a long way to drop as well but then realized that's the only way they get al those picks in return, and the way it shakes out the Patriots have the flexibility to move back inside 40 if they want to get a certain player and still come out well ahead, and if there is a run on QB's and other positions they don't need, or teams start going for guys the Patriots weren't really interested in then they are going to have a real good shot at coming out of this with more prospects and still not deviate from who they really wanted. there's definitely a risk, as it could also break the other way and there could be a run on the guys at the top of their board, but i'm guessing Belichick really likes the way this is unfolding and sees a number of prospects who are going to be there for him.

 

[Kontradiction]

I think you and I both went them to jump up and get ahead of the WR run, and maybe also jump up to get ahead of the safeties as well, but I think we're also both content to see how it plays out.

After Swearinger is gone, I'm not high on this safety class. There could be some diamonds in the rough, but I wasn't impressed when I studied them. Pulling the trigger on Elam was a brilliant move for the Ravens, IMO. He's the bare definition of what their defense is about.

But yes, I'm waiting and seeing. They have the ammo to move about if they feel the need to. Let's see how this plays out...

EDIT: Also, to add on to it, while this feeding frenzy on WR's early on in the 2nd could (and very possibly will) take place, it's not certain. If anything, yesterday told us that a lot of teams are content on reaching at other areas of need as well. The first couple of selections today should give Belichick somewhat of an idea if he needs to trade up at all.

EDIT 2: I mixed up Swearinger with Vaccarro. It has since been fixed.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

They got even value, nothing more and nothing less.

I agree that we got equal value, but less risk. With 4 players the Pats are much less likely to "miss". With only one player the Vikings are much more likely to miss. This is not a value increase or decrease, but it is a risk decrease - the Pats are a business, this is a business move.

Borges and friends hate it when risk is reduced at the expense of excitement, but that is how this franchise (read "business") is run.

 

[patchick]

I agree that we got equal value, but less risk.

I'd agree with that, and part of that reduced risk is having much greater control of the situation. They now have the opportunity to maneuver and make the scenarios they want become reality. (The strategic leapfrogging of Baltimore to nab Gronkowski was a classic example.)

Or to put it another way, they can now be aggressive rather than passive on day 2.

 

[MossWelkowski]

That more like it. I also forgot to add Tom Brady.

Alfonzo Dennard (Unusual scenario, everyone knew he was high round talent)
Stevan Ridley (Above average)
Ryan Mallett (We don't know if he's talent. All he has is promise)
Marcus Cannon played in 23 games in 2 years
Aaron Hernandez (Gold)
Zoltan Mesko (Most punters and kickers are picked low anyway)
Julian Edelman (Above average, remains to be seen)
Matt Slater (ST)
David Thomas (So good he's not even on the team)
Stephen Gostkowski (Kickers usually found this low)
Nick Kaczur started 62 games for the pats
James Sanders started 50 games and had 8 INT's for the pata
Matt Cassel - vrabel was added at the request of the pats
Asante Samuel (talent)
Dan Koppen (talent)
Tully Banta-Cain started 21 games and had 23.5 sacks
Jarvis Green played in 121 games, started 46, had 28 sacks
David Givens (talent)

They've won a lot of Super Bowls over the past 10 years

 

[Deus Irae]

I agree that we got equal value, but less risk. With 4 players the Pats are much less likely to "miss". With only one player the Vikings are much more likely to miss. This is not a value increase or decrease, but it is a risk decrease - the Pats are a business, this is a business move.

Borges and friends hate it when risk is reduced at the expense of excitement, but that is how this franchise (read "business") is run.

Again, I'm fine with the drop down, although I think they'll need to jump back up a bit because they probably dropped below the WR run area. Having said that...

They didn't get less risk. What they got was more bites at the apple, which is a different thing. They actually increased their risk. They just increased the number of times they can miss as an offset.

 

[captain insano]

That dink whines in his sleep.

i cant listen to him or maz. no entertainmant value what so ever.

 

[nowayback]

even value? who inthe 1st round was a must have pick?grading on a curve we fleeced them, but they got what they wanted so fine.2nd round pick? look at pioli era and after pioli era.

 

[Kontradiction]

even value? who inthe 1st round was a must have pick?grading on a curve we fleeced them, but they got what they wanted so fine.2nd round pick? look at pioli era and after pioli era.

There were quite a few must have picks, depending one where you thought our biggest need area lied. If it was safety, Elam or Swearinger. If it was WR, Woods or Hunter. If it was DE, Carradine (or Hunt, depending on what you think of him).

EDIT: Mixed up Swearinger with Vaccarro. Making da fix.

 

[PP2]

They didn't get less risk. What they got was more bites at the apple, which is a different thing. They actually increased their risk. They just increased the number of times they can miss as an offset.

That makes absolutely no sense. Pats have increased their ability to maneuver towards the players they've targeted in their value windows.

The idea that four picks is more of a risk than a high first round pick is nonsense. The first round pick is actually much more of a risk, not just because of the flat hit/miss probability but because of the security you must add to their contract, as opposed to the lower cost/number of years for the latter rounds, should one of the latter round picks not pan out.

 

[upstater1]

That's entirely possible and I never said the deal didn't make sense, but we don't know that right now. Could be taking a gamble too that someone slips down to that spot. And trading back up seems a bit counter productive at this point since you would have to spend those resources we just gained by giving up a 1st rounder where there's lots of good talent going/about to go at a position of great need.

I'm someone who has been pushing for 2 WRs early, so I well recognize they can blow it. But if the Patriots like Wheaton and say Dobson, and they grab them, and even if they needed to spend a 4th to move up 4 or 5 spots, they will have already gained a 3rd. It may well be they have a Wheaton or Dobson ahead of Patterson or Hunter, so they end up with the highest values at a position of need, AND a third rounder so they can take a flyer on Honey Badger.

That's why a trade up still makes sense, as Patchick already mentioned.

 

[yopats]

Really need a run on QB's here in round 2 to help us out and not have to try and trade up.

So very nice talent that will be there

Here is Mayock's 30-80

31. Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State
32. Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
33. Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M
34. Kevin Minter,ILB, LSU
35. Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
36. Arthur Brown, ILB, Kansas State
37. Keenan Allen, WR, California
38. Jonathan Cyprien, FS, Florida International
39. Margus Hunt, DE, SMU
40. Kawann Short, DT, Purdue

41. EJ Manuel, QB, Florida State
42. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
43. Matt Barkley, QB, USC
44. Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia
45. Robert Woods, WR, USC
46. Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
47. Larry Warford,, OG, Kentucky
48. Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State
49. Jamie Collins, OLB, Southern Mississippi
50. Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse

51. Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State
52. Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin
53. Terrance Williams,, WR, Baylor
54. Cornelius Washington, OLB, Georgia
55. Brian Schwenke, C, California
56. Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State
57. D.J. Swearinger, SS, South Carolina
58. Jonathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State
59. Darius Slay, CB, Mississippi State
60. Aaron Dobson, WR, Marshall

61. Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
62. Bennie Logan, DT, LSU
63. Giovani Bernard, RB, North Carolina
64. Sio Moore, OLB, Connecticut
65. Jon Bostic, OLB, Florida
66. Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB, Connecticut
67. B.W. Webb, CB, William & Mary
68. J.J. Wilcox, FS, Georgia Southern
69. Khaseem Greene, OLB, Rutgers
70. Brian Winters, OG, Kent

71. John Jenkins, DT, Georgia
72. Dwayne Gratz, CB, Connecticut
73. Stedman Bailey, WR, West Virginia
74. Robert Alford, CB, Southeastern Louisiana
75. Andre Ellington, RB, Clemson
76. Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego State
77. William Gholston, DE, Michigan State
78. Quinton Patton, WR, Louisiana Tech
79. Alex Okafor, DE, Texas
80. Travis Kelce, TE, Cincinnati

81. Mike Glennon, QB, North Carolina State
82. David Bakhtiari, OT, Colorado
83. Brandon Williams, DT, Missouri Southern State
84. David Quessenberry, OT, San Jose State
85. Jordan Poyer, CB, Oregon State
86. Tyler Bray, QB, Tennessee
87. Christine Michael, RB, Texas A&M
88. Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon State
89. John Simon, DT, Ohio State
90. Dallas Thomas, OT, Tennessee

91. Barrett Jones, OG, Alabama
92. Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin
93. Marquise Goodwin, WR, Texas
94. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Michigan State
95. Shamarko Thomas, SS, Syracuse
96. Vance McDonald, TE, Rice
97. Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama
98. Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU
99. David Amerson, CB, North Carolina State
100. Johnathan Franklin, RB, UCLA

 

[mgteich]

So basically you would have traded the #29 with Philly for their pick plus a 7th? This is a no-go for me. If the patriots wanted Woods that badly they would have drafted him at 29. Think of it another way. What has happened at 29, 30, 31 and 32 that the patriots have changed their mind with regard to value in the 2nd and 3rd rounds?

The patriots do NOT have one player in mind or they would not have traded down. I suspect that there are at least 6 WR's that the patriots would like to have in the 2nd.

I DO agree that the patriots could move back up, but using only one pick to move up (ignoring 7ths).

Hey, here's a little thought experiment:

The Patriots want to trade up toward the top of round two, and everybody knows it. So the Eagles manage to shake them down for picks #52, 83 and 102 -- an extra third and fourth just to move up 17 spots in the second to #35, which is a heck of a premium. The Eagles fleeced them. The Patriots select WR Robert Woods.

Even in that "fleecing" scenario, the Patriots would be getting the player most think they would have taken at #29 plus a free seventh rounder.

How can anybody seriously object to this trade NOW, before they've even used any of the picks they acquired -- especially with Caserio confirming that their target from pick 29 is still on the board?

 

[Deus Irae]

That makes absolutely no sense. Pats have increased their ability to maneuver towards the players they've targeted in their value windows.

The idea that four picks is more of a risk than a high first round pick is nonsense. The first round pick is actually much more of a risk, not just because of the flat hit/miss probability but because of the security you must add to their contract, as opposed to the lower cost/number of years for the latter rounds, should one of the latter round picks not pan out.

It's a matter of odds. What they did was lower the probability of a hit on any given pick (increased risk) in comparison to the first round pick, while increasing the number of times they'll be able to play the odds.

 

[bagwell368]

They got even value, nothing more and nothing less.

I'm fairly sure the only player BB would have drafted at #29 if he had been there was Syl, who went to Denver in pick before.

This is a draft that has been panned as only having 12-15 players that graded out to a 1st. It also has 75 players that grade out to 2nd or 3rd. Others have claimed that there are more draftable players than last year.

If you use a trade calculator that does not suppress 2nd rounders as the common old one does, the deal shows up as a 19% gain for us. That doesn't include the enhanced ability to package and deal around for falling players and maximinze value.

It's clear to me that we'll get better value out of these picks than what the Vikings drafted. What a poor route runner. I'm sure BB would have chosen someone like Woods or Carradine instead.

 

[bagwell368]

It's a matter of odds. What they did was lower the probability of a hit on any given pick (increased risk) in comparison to the first round pick, while increasing the number of times they'll be able to play the odds.

Yeah, sort of like AH.

Since Pioli's hands were removed BB's drafting overall has been excellent. Do you care to dispute that?