Is there something to the recent rise in "surprise" championship teams?

[PatsFans.com Article]

Is there something to the recent rise in "surprise" championship teams?
By: John Morgan

From 1989 to 2000, there was a 12-year span where every single champion was either first or second in wins during the regular season. Only three of the last six NFL champions have ranked in the top ten in wins, and four of the last six champions have been...

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[Get it shawtaay]

Nice article.

The problem with a perceived "increase in surprise champions" is that it implies a 6th seeded team is worse than a 5th seed, and so on and so forth.

In reality, 10/12 playoff teams are more or less the same talent-wise. Teams are so close to one another today that the difference in a playoff game comes down to health, a few situational outcomes (red zone possession, the extra 1st down, etc.), a few coaching decisions, a few bounces, and whether or not one team makes a game-changing play (KR/PR for TD, TO). How does the regular season tell us anything about all that?

16 games don't tell you which way the ball would bounce in Feb. Game-turning D/ST plays are so infrequent, and playoff teams usually have similar differentials, so the regular season doesn't tell you who will make them either. Winning 13 games doesn't guarantee you health in the playoffs or something.

The interesting question to me is if you are a coach, how does this affect your outlook? To me, these games illustrate the importance of situational football - good tackling, 3 points vs. 7 points, etc. Bend but don't break just won a championship - the Pats need to be better/execute better in situations. It was their bread and butter (esp. on D) but recently they've been beat at their own game too often.

 

[brdmaverick]

Nice article.

The problem with a perceived "increase in surprise champions" is that it implies a 6th seeded team is worse than a 5th seed, and so on and so forth.

Isn't that how it works? I understand the 'any given Sunday' mentality, but overall a 5th seed is supposed to be better than a 6th seed. More wins in regular season should translate to 'expected to better'.

 

[Joker]

One easy way to solve all this...petition Goodell to sit on live TV, like NFLN , and take a polygraph administered by any number of former FBI agents. Let's have the question asked in front of the whole country. Give him immunity, if that placates all the violently intense NFL lovers who insist the NFL is the only entity in the entire United States of America that is impervious to such corruption.

Is the NFL in collusion with other corporate entities to predetermine matchups and outcomes of NFL postseason games and especially the Super Bowl?

Yes or no.....one simple question asked directly on live TV...if he answers truthfully, while having immunity" we will finally have our answer.

 

[olschool]

One easy way to solve all this...petition Goodell to sit on live TV, like NFLN , and take a polygraph administered by any number of former FBI agents. Let's have the question asked in front of the whole country. Give him immunity, if that placates all the violently intense NFL lovers who insist the NFL is the only entity in the entire United States of America that is impervious to such corruption.

Is the NFL in collusion with other corporate entities to predetermine matchups and outcomes of NFL postseason games and especially the Super Bowl?

Yes or no.....one simple question asked directly on live TV...if he answers truthfully, while having immunity" we will finally have our answer.

Not that Goodell would ever tell the truth, even to an FBI agent.

That being said, I firmly believe that the TV networks have far more influence than people believe. Ratings are directly related to billions of dollars in revenue, and I think there is collusion between the league and the networks to do whatever they can to pump up ratings.

When these executives meet on the golf course, do you really think that all they talk about is the weather ?

There are many examples, like a TV timeout that stalls a drive, schedule changes at the end of the season, tailored to pump up prime time ratings, the whole replay system that's reliant on network camera angles, referee teams that vary wildly in how they call a game from week to week, and on and on.

I don't think it was any coincidence that a "let 'em play" group of officials was assigned to a Superbowl between two of the most penalized teams in football.

Those guys pretty much guaranteed that the Lewis saga had a fairtytale ending.

I've come to view the NFL like reality TV. Fun to watch, with a lot of manufactured drama and surprise endings to capture the viewers.

 

[Kontradiction]

One easy way to solve all this...petition Goodell to sit on live TV, like NFLN , and take a polygraph administered by any number of former FBI agents. Let's have the question asked in front of the whole country. Give him immunity, if that placates all the violently intense NFL lovers who insist the NFL is the only entity in the entire United States of America that is impervious to such corruption.

Is the NFL in collusion with other corporate entities to predetermine matchups and outcomes of NFL postseason games and especially the Super Bowl?

Yes or no.....one simple question asked directly on live TV...if he answers truthfully, while having immunity" we will finally have our answer.

If that were the case, I don't think they would have came up with Ravens vs. 49ers as the big game. It would have been Pats/Packers or something like that. By and large, most fans did not want to see a "HarBowl".

 

[Nikolai]

If that were the case, I don't think they would have came up with Ravens vs. 49ers as the big game. It would have been Pats/Packers or something like that. By and large, most fans did not want to see a "HarBowl".

Yeah, that's my problem with this conspiracy theory. And also, bolstering Ray Lewis? The man much of America thinks is a murderer? Why? I don't buy it.

The first question with conspiracy theories should be "qui bono?"

 

[Get it shawtaay]

Yeah, that's my problem with this conspiracy theory. And also, bolstering Ray Lewis? The man much of America thinks is a murderer? Why? I don't buy it.

The first question with conspiracy theories should be "qui bono?"

Why would the conspirators give the Ravens the title, if SF has a far larger (and far more affluent, might I add) fan base? Or why would they let them beat us for that matter? Baltimore executed on the field and the scores reflects that.

 

[olschool]

If that were the case, I don't think they would have came up with Ravens vs. 49ers as the big game. It would have been Pats/Packers or something like that. By and large, most fans did not want to see a "HarBowl".

Being Pats fans, we tend to over estimate the popularity of our team. I know that in this part of Florida, heavily populated with graybeards from the northeast, the general consensus was, "ANYONE but the Pats." Aside from hating the Pats, people are just tired of them.

 

[olschool]

Why would the conspirators give the Ravens the title, if SF has a far larger (and far more affluent, might I add) fan base? Or why would they let them beat us for that matter? Baltimore executed on the field and the scores reflects that.

The networks and league don't particularly care who wins, all they want is drama and a human interest story.

Remember, Lewis was never convicted of anything, whether he bought his freedom or not, and like him or hate him, he is a controversial, cartoonish character that the camera loves. Plus, the Baltimore area is also the DC area, one of the most affluent areas in the country.

And brother against against brother is just about the most natural conflict you could play up for the audience. It's a classic story of sibling rivalry, and people eat that stuff up.

The league and networks just don't want the same teams every year.

Remember how boring it got with the Bills four years in a row ?

 

[Kontradiction]

Being Pats fans, we tend to over estimate the popularity of our team. I know that in this part of Florida, heavily populated with graybeards from the northeast, the general consensus was, "ANYONE but the Pats." Aside from hating the Pats, people are just tired of them.

It wasn't a commentary about the popularity of our team as much as it was a commentary about the popularity of excellent quarterbacks leading high powered offenses. You can sub in the Broncos for the Pats and the Falcons for the Packers if you want. In the end, if the fix was in, the last two teams they would want is the Ravens and the 49ers.

 

[Kontradiction]

What's really cute is that I remember that Colts fans used to complain that the NFL was fixing it in favor of the Pats too whenever we whooped them. The tables have certainly turned, as a I pointed out in the last thread where a couple of people were floating that conspiracy theory.

 

[tobias funke]

Read Moneyball?

Even in baseball, the proponents of the system that they rely on to get them into the playoffs recognize that once they're there, it's a crapshoot, and the system won't help them anymore. And that's with a 5-7 game series.

All the preparation and talent on paper won't win a playoff game for you, let alone 3-4 in a row. It takes talent, execution, and a lot of luck.

After your team wins, you can pretend lucky bounces weren't a part of the equation, but they always are. See: tuck rule, OOB kickoffs, missed 30-yard FGs...

 

[Joker]

What's really cute is that I remember that Colts fans used to complain that the NFL was fixing it in favor of the Pats too whenever we whooped them. The tables have certainly turned, as a I pointed out in the last thread where a couple of people were floating that conspiracy theory.

WTF does asking about the Ravens/SF super bowl have to do with the friggin' Patriots not in the Super Bowl?

and what is this idiocy about "well ,harumph harumph...nobody wanted to see a Harbaugh Bowl...so that proves it's all legit!!"

newsflash, Iraqi Minister of Information....

Super Bowl 47 TV Ratings: 48.1 Overnight, Which is the Best Ever.

Super Bowl 47 TV Ratings: 48.1 Overnight, Which is the Best Ever. CBS Executives Can Thank the Power Outage | The Big Lead

Third highest rated Super Bowl ever.....

Super Bowl 47 ratings third-highest in TV history - Washington Times

the last two teams they would ever want is the Ravens and SF!!!!

jeezus krist...what???????????????????????????????????????????????????

 

[Kontradiction]

WTF does asking about the Ravens/SF super bowl have to do with the friggin' Patriots not in the Super Bowl?

and what is this idiocy about "well ,harumph harumph...nobody wanted to see a Harbaugh Bowl...so that proves it's all legit!!"

newsflash, Iraqi Minister of Information....

Super Bowl 47 TV Ratings: 48.1 Overnight, Which is the Best Ever.

Super Bowl 47 TV Ratings: 48.1 Overnight, Which is the Best Ever. CBS Executives Can Thank the Power Outage | The Big Lead

Third highest rated Super Bowl ever.....

Super Bowl 47 ratings third-highest in TV history - Washington Times

the last two teams they would ever want is the Ravens and SF!!!!

jeezus krist...what???????????????????????????????????????????????????

That the ratings were high doesn't confirm your conspiracy theory. It only confirms that the Super Bowl is a popular television program. It's the Super Bowl. Naturally ratings were going to be high. It still doesn't change the fact that the general feeling across most fan forums and social media was that, prior to the two championship games, a HarBowl was not what most people wanted to see. It also doesn't change the fact that, should the NFL fix the games for ratings, they would have probably selected two high powered offensive teams instead of teams generally known for their defenses. But I can understand how applying logic to an argument like this can be difficult if you're still butthurt over the way the season ended. Colts fans circa 2003-2005 can empathize.

You sure do get touchy when approached about this. Perhaps it's time to take your meds?

 

[Deus Irae]

Isn't that how it works? I understand the 'any given Sunday' mentality, but overall a 5th seed is supposed to be better than a 6th seed. More wins in regular season should translate to 'expected to better'.

With an unbalanced schedule and division winners getting automatic seeds, what's "expected" is often not the same as what "is".

 

[Joker]

That the ratings were high doesn't confirm your conspiracy theory. It only confirms that the Super Bowl is a popular television program. It's the Super Bowl. Naturally ratings were going to be high. It still doesn't change the fact that the general feeling across most fan forums and social media was that, prior to the two championship games, a HarBowl was not what most people wanted to see. It also doesn't change the fact that, should the NFL fix the games for ratings, they would have probably selected two high powered offensive teams instead of teams generally known for their defenses. But I can understand how applying logic to an argument like this can be difficult if you're still butthurt over the way the season ended. Colts fans circa 2003-2005 can empathize.

You sure do get touchy when approached about this. Perhaps it's time to take your meds?

no, I'm not mad ...I just have a hard time following your peculiar logic..

who wanted to see a Harbaugh bowl??? Nobody!!! so THAT proves it!!

uh, this Super Bowl was the third highest viewed in history...

yeah but YOU are stupid and need meds because if nobody wanted to see this Harbaugh Bowl then they would have tuned in to watch it with the third highest total in TV history!!! You idiot, Joker!!!

uh...OK...not following but if what you say is true why was "Harbaugh Bowl" trademarked last February and why was the NFLN trumpeting up the possibility of a "Harbaugh Bowl" in August?

You're STUPID, Joker...I told you it's because NOBODY wanted to see a Harbaugh Bowl so they HAD to start publicizing it early...just in case it happened...you know, for like the first time in NFL history....you sure are stupid, Joker...you really should stop obsessing about the Colts...

waiter...check please.. and buy my friend here a double shot of Haldol...

 

[Kontradiction]

no, I'm not mad ...I just have a hard time following your peculiar logic..

who wanted to see a Harbaugh bowl??? Nobody!!! so THAT proves it!!

uh, this Super Bowl was the third highest viewed in history...

yeah but YOU are stupid and need meds because if nobody wanted to see this Harbaugh Bowl then they would have tuned in to watch it with the third highest total in TV history!!! You idiot, Joker!!!

uh...OK...not following but if what you say is true why was "Harbaugh Bowl" trademarked last February and why was the NFLN trumpeting up the possibility of a "Harbaugh Bowl" in August?

You're STUPID, Joker...I told you it's because NOBODY wanted to see a Harbaugh Bowl so they HAD to start publicizing it early...just in case it happened...you know, for like the first time in NFL history....you sure are stupid, Joker...you really should stop obsessing about the Colts...

waiter...check please.. and buy my friend here a double shot of Haldol...

I challenge you to prove to me, in detail, how the fact that the Super Bowl was highly rated proves your hypothesis that the game is fixed. If you can, lay it out with bullet points so that the post is easy to read/break down.

As for the game itself, this "highest rated since..." thing comes out every year. As social media blows up, and as an outage happens, the ratings will go up. But, in the end, it's the Super Bowl. Even if it were the Browns vs. the Jaguars, a lot of people would watch because it's the last game for the next six months. Another example that can be used to blow a hole in your argument was the fact that most people did not want to see the Pats in Super Bowl XLVI. But they were, and there were still a very high amount of ratings.

 

[Joker]

I'm not going to bullet point anything...the video is conclusive...41 clear infractions of the illegal contact/ PI rules by the Ravens...NO Penalties....not only the preposterous no call at the end but the offensive pass interference by Torrey Smith as the second quarter woumd down to the five minute mark...clearly he ripped the DB's arms from behind in full camera view and that of the 'official"...no call...NO CALL????????? that was a no brainer call....and on and on...nice play Ed Reed, a full second offsides stops the 9ers again...what offsides????

right...what's next Kontra...Vito Antuofermo won a fair bout versus Hagler the first time they fought??? The 1919 White Sox world series was all a misunderstanding?

 

[Kontradiction]

I'm not going to bullet point anything...the video is conclusive...41 clear infractions of the illegal contact/ PI rules by the Ravens...NO Penalties....not only the preposterous no call at the end but the offensive pass interference by Torrey Smith as the second quarter woumd down to the five minute mark...clearly he ripped the DB's arms from behind in full camera view and that of the 'official"...no call...NO CALL????????? that was a no brainer call....and on and on...nice play Ed Reed, a full second offsides stops the 9ers again...what offsides????

right...what's next Kontra...Vito Antuofermo won a fair bout versus Hagler the first time they fought??? The 1919 White Sox world series was all a misunderstanding?

Complaining about pass interference throughout the playoffs doesn't make sense. It makes even less sense to target the Ravens (which is where my butthurt comment came from before... see how we're coming full circle now?). The referees made it clear from the start of Wild Card weekend that they weren't going to be as conservative with the pass interference/illegal contact type of calls. They did the same in 2011 as well. The offsides on Ed Reed was a blown call, as was the miss of the holding at the end against Crabtree. But blown calls happen. They usually happen in the direction of the winning team. Fact is that Flacco lit the 49ers up well before that because they couldn't lay a finger on him. Another fact is that the 49ers were also mugging the Ravens' receivers down the field. All of this doesn't prove that the big, bad NFL fixed things with the refs so that Ray Ray could win a Super Bowl. Again, if the fix was in, the NFL would have put together a Super Bowl in which two offensive juggernauts played since statistics and studies show that, to the average fan, a high scoring game is more fun to watch than a low scoring game. Going in, that game had the potential to be a low scoring one and was well on it's way to a blowout prior to a freak power outage.