Bedard: let six free agents walk

[Brady_to_Moss]

Bedard said that he was not going to mention specific free agents, and I think that may have led him to not realize how few options there are for good outside receivers. Assuming we exclude Wallace and Jennings (for being smaller than ideal and very expensive), that leaves:
Dwayne Bowe - 6'2" with 4.40 speed, but has some on-field character question marks, and will also be very expensive
Brian Hartline - 6'2" with 4.50 speed, not really a clear upgrade over Lloyd
Darrius Heyward-Bey - 6'2" with 4.25 speed, but very questionable hands and production

Other than that, I'm not seeing a whole lot at the X position unless we start looking at a trade for a guy like Kenny Britt (which opens another can of worms).

you forgot a trade for harvin...he would be a great fit here...hopefully they can make that happen. Jennings is almost a lock for going to MIA IMO. either let welker go and spend a ton of $$ on wallace and or trade for harvin..or rely on lloyd, edelman and some other schmucks all while brady years are numbered. They need to win now. Not rebuild their WR corp..

 

[Brady2Moss]

I think the optimal thing to do would be to restructure Brady and Mankins and use that extra money to

1) Franchise Talib he is a solid #1 corner but his injury and character concerns make things iffy with him. I'd rather take him for a year than to see if we can get another guy in free agency cuz I don't think Bill will pay when we get to that point

2) Get Welker back for a 6-7 million a year deal if possible, he won't accept, he shouldn't accept, but we shouldn't pay the market rate for him.

3) Pump remainder of the money into quality defense veterans, defense is always going to be a problem until certain things are addressed. Offense was horrendous in the Ravens game, but still the D didn't make a single play and rarely does in the playoffs.

4) Find a quality outside threat in the draft or free agency, doesn't need to be Bowe or Jennings (Definitely not him going to be 30 next year stay away!). Just someone that can catch the ball 10-20 yards down field and break a tackle.

 

[nekromantique]

I think the Pats will have to consider giving up the first rounder and going after Victor Cruz if they let both go.

no thank you. he has terrible hands. people complain about welker's increasing drop numbers now...they would never stop if cruz was on the team.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

no thank you. he has terrible hands. people complain about welker's increasing drop numbers now...they would never stop if cruz was on the team.

if welker goes they need a big time player and will have to spend $$ if they want to continue to be dominate on O...with brady only a few more years in league..you need to surround him with talent now..no matter the price

 

[supafly]

no thank you. he has terrible hands. people complain about welker's increasing drop numbers now...they would never stop if cruz was on the team.

We're all going to have our personal opinions on these kinds of players and rarely agree. When we do it often seems to be a too good to be true scenario and doesn't work out. That said, I'd personally much rather have V.Cruz than Mike Wallace. I think your comments about Cruz pertain a lot more to Wallace about dropping passes etc. I also think that Cruz has a better work ethic and attitude than Wallace.

To me, I'd even rather have Jennings than Wallace. By all accounts Jennings at least seems to run smarter routes and may have better hands, even if he's turning 30. We could potentially still get another 4 solid yrs out of him. Wallace just scares me and seems like an awfully big gamble.

if welker goes they need a big time player and will have to spend $$ if they want to continue to be dominate on O...with brady only a few more years in league..you need to surround him with talent now..no matter the price

I agree about Cruz. I'd have a hard time imagining him as a bust or not producing enough here. There's something about his work ethic that impresses me, maybe due to the UDFA label. Either way, he's a quality WR with a bright future. I'm doubting that he ever leaves the NYG though.

One thing I'd disagree with is the comment "no matter the price."

I think this team is always going to have one eye on the future while fielding their best shot at the highest form of competition now. We should thank them too, because if they didn't we'd likely be battling to even get into the playoffs every year due to poor financial decisions made in the mid 2000's.

I trust Belichick's approach, and even though WR seems to be a weak point at the moment, I assume that he will certainly address it as well as possible.

 

[supafly]

2) Get Welker back for a 6-7 million a year deal if possible, he won't accept, he shouldn't accept, but we shouldn't pay the market rate for him.

I actually don't think they necessarily have to pay "market rate" for Welker, just something that is competitive, fair, and reasonable.

I really get the feeling that he would take a bit of a hometown discount to stay here with Brady for another few years, but he doesn't want to be insulted either.

You mention the 6-7 million a year. I don't think that will work but something in the range of 8 to 8.5 aav just may work, with something in the high teens as the guaranteed money. I think that would be a very good definition of fair and would show good faith by the team.

If they lowball him like last year again, then one almost gets the feeling that it's borderline insulting, especially when there are some people here throwing around ridiculous numbers of 11-12 million a year aav.

In the end I just have a hunch that Welker would be fine with staying, as long as the Patriots offer him something close to the competition. It's also another reason why I don't like the "let him see the other offers" route first, because I'm afraid we'd see one knucklehead team try to make a big splash.

They've got to be pretty certain that there will be teams that offer him something in the 8 to 8.5 range even on the lowest end, so why mess with fire? In my opinion they should just offer him something in the range of 8 or so and see where it takes them. Their problem last year was the ridiculous lowballing method, as that didn't work for anything, unless their plan was just to keep him one last year for 2012 and let him walk.

 

[Brady2Moss]

I actually don't think they necessarily have to pay "market rate" for Welker, just something that is competitive, fair, and reasonable.

I really get the feeling that he would take a bit of a hometown discount to stay here with Brady for another few years, but he doesn't want to be insulted either.

You mention the 6-7 million a year. I don't think that will work but something in the range of 8 to 8.5 aav just may work, with something in the high teens as the guaranteed money. I think that would be a very good definition of fair and would show good faith by the team.

If they lowball him like last year again, then one almost gets the feeling that it's borderline insulting, especially when there are some people here throwing around ridiculous numbers of 11-12 million a year aav.

In the end I just have a hunch that Welker would be fine with staying, as long as the Patriots offer him something close to the competition. It's also another reason why I don't like the "let him see the other offers" route first, because I'm afraid we'd see one knucklehead team try to make a big splash.

They've got to be pretty certain that there will be teams that offer him something in the 8 to 8.5 range even on the lowest end, so why mess with fire? In my opinion they should just offer him something in the range of 8 or so and see where it takes them. Their problem last year was the ridiculous lowballing method, as that didn't work for anything, unless their plan was just to keep him one last year for 2012 and let him walk.

I agree I wanted them to do 3 years 24 million last year, but that didn't end up happening. There were reports that they offered 2 years 16 million fully guaranteed contract that's a pretty nice deal in terms of guarantees but the nature of the years was probably an issue.

I just feel like if a 3 year deal was not offered last year why would it be offered this year? I think he's an awesome player, and is worth $10 million a year but we don't have the cap space for it given that we can replace some of his production with the tight ends, it's a tough situation.

 

[nekromantique]

We're all going to have our personal opinions on these kinds of players and rarely agree. When we do it often seems to be a too good to be true scenario and doesn't work out. That said, I'd personally much rather have V.Cruz than Mike Wallace. I think your comments about Cruz pertain a lot more to Wallace about dropping passes etc. I also think that Cruz has a better work ethic and attitude than Wallace.

To me, I'd even rather have Jennings than Wallace. By all accounts Jennings at least seems to run smarter routes and may have better hands, even if he's turning 30. We could potentially still get another 4 solid yrs out of him. Wallace just scares me and seems like an awfully big gamble.



I agree about Cruz. I'd have a hard time imagining him as a bust or not producing enough here. There's something about his work ethic that impresses me, maybe due to the UDFA label. Either way, he's a quality WR with a bright future. I'm doubting that he ever leaves the NYG though.

One thing I'd disagree with is the comment "no matter the price."

I think this team is always going to have one eye on the future while fielding their best shot at the highest form of competition now. We should thank them too, because if they didn't we'd likely be battling to even get into the playoffs every year due to poor financial decisions made in the mid 2000's.

I trust Belichick's approach, and even though WR seems to be a weak point at the moment, I assume that he will certainly address it as well as possible.

giving up a 1st for Cruz is a terrible decision, no matter how you look at it. and i never said anything about wallace. there is really no FA WR that interests me beyond maybe a (relatively) cheap Hartline, and a (should be, but might not be) cheap Alexander. anything else should be gotten in the draft...of which there are plenty of solid day 2/3 prospects.

 

[supafly]

giving up a 1st for Cruz is a terrible decision, no matter how you look at it. and i never said anything about wallace. there is really no FA WR that interests me beyond maybe a (relatively) cheap Hartline, and a (should be, but might not be) cheap Alexander. anything else should be gotten in the draft...of which there are plenty of solid day 2/3 prospects.

I didn't mean to infer that you specifically mentioned Wallace, I was just comparing the two players since there seem to be so many who do want him.

The Cruz issue is a hard one, but one of the pros is that he's pretty much a surefire star even for a first. That would be just one of the arguments. I doubt that Belichick would ever do it anyway to be honest, but if he did I would trust the decision due to the talent and upside of the player.

I hear what you're saying via the draft. Personally I hope that they take a high round draft pick, an exciting playmaker that many talk about to come in and make an immediate impact. I'd also like to go your day 2/day 3 route and double up much like they've done with TE, RB, and front seven recently. That increases our chances even more at actually hitting on the position for the future at a cheap rate.

 

[supafly]

I agree I wanted them to do 3 years 24 million last year, but that didn't end up happening. There were reports that they offered 2 years 16 million fully guaranteed contract that's a pretty nice deal in terms of guarantees but the nature of the years was probably an issue.

I just feel like if a 3 year deal was not offered last year why would it be offered this year?

That's the million dollar question that no one really knows the answer to, and the one point that makes me very leery about Welker's future here.

It makes me wonder if they didn't go all in for one last crack at things last season, especially with the high price of that tag. At first glance it certainly doesn't appear to be a move made for the future.

 

[NE_PATS_FAN_54]

Bedard's column is a joke.

WR - Cribbs, Ebert, Edelman, Ebert, non-existent X receiver
CB - Dowling/Rookie, Dennard, Arrington


He either never bothered to look at the WR FA class, or he just wrote this garbage because his deadline was coming and he didn't have time to actually think.


If he worked in an industry where quality mattered, that column could have gotten him fired.

He started off the column with:

"What follows here is one man’s opinion on the Patriots’ weak points and how they’ll go about filling those spots. We’ll purposely be light on free agent names because it’s so early in the process that it’s difficult to tell who will be available."

Not sure how much more a disclaimer he can give. He isn't reporting here, he's just offering an opinion. It's the offseason, that's what everyone does. Will everything happen that he says will happen? No. But I think most of it should/will happen.

 

[ivanvamp]

13,17,21,14,14.........points Pats scored in their playoff losses in the WW era. When the Pats play complete defenses on the big stage, their small ball approach gets snuffed out. Defenses can squeeze the center of the field knowing Brady's fleet of short route specialists
will rarely try to expand the field.
The time may have come to explore alternatives. Verses Baltimore, Kaepernick had only 16 completions but for 300+ yds and his team scored 31. Brady had 29 completions for 300+ yds but amassed only 13 points.. In this small ball offense, Brady had 25 incompletions....that's 25 plays of no gain......add in 3 runs of zero yds and 3 turnovers gets you 38% of offensive plays went for no gain or worse. A 53% passing attack that nets low yards/play.......that's the formula that loses verses championship caliber defenses.

If it's that easy to squeeze the middle and take away the small ball, how come it doesn't happen more often? Even by the teams that have successfully done it in the playoffs? I mean, in the regular season Brady ate Baltimore's defense for lunch. In 2007, the Pats scored 38 in New York during the last week of the season, but couldn't do much in the Super Bowl. Same team, same defense, but the Pats shredded them just 4 weeks earlier. Against the Jets in 2010 the Pats racked up 45 points late in the regular season but couldn't do much in the playoffs.

 

[Deus Irae]

He started off the column with:

"What follows here is one man’s opinion on the Patriots’ weak points and how they’ll go about filling those spots. We’ll purposely be light on free agent names because it’s so early in the process that it’s difficult to tell who will be available."

Not sure how much more a disclaimer he can give. He isn't reporting here, he's just offering an opinion. It's the offseason, that's what everyone does. Will everything happen that he says will happen? No. But I think most of it should/will happen.

If he felt he didn't have sufficient info, he shouldn't have written the column. He wrote it, so it's his baby. He should have chosen a different topic, or done better research. It's a crap column.

 

[Kontradiction]

The only thing this team, offensively, needs to do is re-sign Welker, keep Lloyd, draft a RG, and draft a big bodied receiver that's capable of threatening every level of the field and can help the red zone offense should Gronk go down with injury again. Letting Welker walk and getting rid of Lloyd is beyond ******ed.

 

[Sivy]

Best Offense last season, 3rd best all time. Yea, lets just blow the entire thing up.

 

[Sciz]

All of you people realize that when Bedard talks about letting Lloyd go, it's to save money to put toward a better WR, right? He's not promoting getting rid of Welker and Lloyd and replacing both of them with garbage.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

All of you people realize that when Bedard talks about letting Lloyd go, it's to save money to put toward a better WR, right? He's not promoting getting rid of Welker and Lloyd and replacing both of them with garbage.

OK. . . . so who are those two receivers going to be that are going to combine for 192 catches, 2,200+ yards, and 10 TDs, for less than the Pats would pay for Welker and Lloyd?

 

[Kontradiction]

OK. . . . so who are those two receivers going to be that are going to combine for 192 catches, 2,200+ yards, and 10 TDs, for less than the Pats would pay for Welker and Lloyd?

Draft them out of Fairy Tale University.

 

[Rob0729]

no thank you. he has terrible hands. people complain about welker's increasing drop numbers now...they would never stop if cruz was on the team.

According to the stats I have seen, Cruz had 11 drops this season. Welker had 10. Granted Welker had 32 more targets than Cruz, but drops are drops. Based on these numbers, Cruz's hands aren't much worse than Welker's at this point.

I would rather resign Welker and keep Lloyd, but I think getting Cruz is the move the Pats have to make if they lose both Welker and Lloyd..... Unless they make an out of left field trade that we aren't expecting like the highly unlikely scenario the Cards let Larry Fitzgerald go to rebuild.

 

[Deus Irae]

OK. . . . so who are those two receivers going to be that are going to combine for 192 catches, 2,200+ yards, and 10 TDs, for less than the Pats would pay for Welker and Lloyd?

Looking at top free agent WRs:

• Cruz - RFA, will cost high draft pick plus a big contract, drops a lot of passes
• Bowe - Will cost big money, is amazingly adept at allowing passes to turn into INTs
• Wallace - Could have been had last season, wants big money
• Harvin - Would cost high draft pick and wants a big money contract
• Jennings - Has dealt with injuries and declining play in the past 2 seasons
• Amendola - Welker wannabe who can't stay healthy and who reports say is likely to be tagged if no deal is worked out
• Alexander - Player who can't stay healthy and has been a poor player outside of one stretch of games
• Hartline - wildly overrated by this board, looking to cash in on his first good season in his 4 year career. Even in this "breakout" season, he was at about 56% target/catch. Lloyd, whom he'd effectively be replacing/complimenting, was at 57%, and actually had 2 more first downs with the same number of catches and a smaller YPC.

All the "get rid of Welker and/or Lloyd" stuff ignores that there's not much out there to bring back in return, that at least some of the replacement options will probably never hit the market, and that what little ends up getting out there is, quite possibly, going to be as costly as what's being let go.