Bedard: let six free agents walk

[Ring 6]

On paper I don't fault Bedard pondering letting Welker and Lloyd walk - the problem is history has shown that finding viable receivers either in the draft or via free agency in this offense seems to be next to impossible. So if they lose Welker, I don't see how they can take the chance letting Lloyd go.

I don't know how you can justify letting your #2 go to save 2.5mill when you are letting your #1 go, conceivably because you can't afford him.

 

[Ian]

I typed the numbers from a page that had 13, for one reason or another. I, somehow, didn't notice.

No worries.

Here are his numbers over 16 games from this season:

Targets: 130
Receptions 74
Yards: 911
YPC: 12.3
1st downs: 50
Touchdowns: 4

 

[Deus Irae]

On paper I don't fault Bedard pondering letting Welker and Lloyd walk - the problem is history has shown that finding viable receivers either in the draft or via free agency in this offense seems to be next to impossible. So if they lose Welker, I don't see how they can take the chance letting Lloyd go.

Indeed.....

Under Belichick, the problem has rarely, if ever, been who the Patriots have let go. It's almost always been the inability to find an adequate replacement for that player, the timing of the move, or both.

 

[Ring 6]

This sort of output is why I follow Bedard for his reporting, and not his analysis.

Apparently the Globe has become a pay site. That is fine, because Bedards reporting will get re-reported and his analysis can be limited to people who find any value in it, and wish to pony up.

 

[Ian]

I don't know how you can justify letting your #2 go to save 2.5mill when you are letting your #1 go, conceivably because you can't afford him.

Exactly, not without some sort of a real plan to replace them. If they're going to got that route and completely revamp their receiving corps, it's a dangerous proposition considering how bad the luck they've had in bringing guys in. After failing it's lead them to bring back veteran retreads who know the system but can't play anymore - and we've seen how well that's worked out

 

[mgteich]

Lloyd had 2 $3M bonuses, no more. The second is an option bonus due this year, presumably in the next month. This can be avoided. Yes, we would still be on the hook for $2M of the original bonus.

I disagree with your analysis. I agree with your conclusion. I actually liked having Lloyd as part of the offense. He was a dependable #2 WR.

That is not accurate, capwise.
Cutting him now would cost 2 mill.
Excersing his bonus and contract would result in a cap hit of 4.5mill this year and 5.5 next.
So the net impact of keping vs cutting is 2.5mill this year and 4.5 next.

Yes it will cost double that to sign a good WR that will keep our offense in the area it is, esp if you are letting Welker walk too.
Letting both go will basically guarantee a big step back from the offense, but hey Bedard's plan lets us keep Edelman, Woodhead (an unnecessary cost after seeing what Vereen can do) and Arrington. Woohooo, if we are lucky we could have a top 10 offense to go with a bottom 10 defense.

 

[Ian]

Apparently the Globe has become a pay site. That is fine, because Bedards reporting will get re-reported and his analysis can be limited to people who find any value in it, and wish to pony up.

No - you can read it. You just have to find the article in Google and click on it from there. It's the direct clicks that seem to bring you to a pay wall.

 

[borg]

Has one person that wants to let Welker go come up with a real solution to the receiver problem if that happens? Who replaces that production without costing as much, if not more than Welker will?

Releasing Lloyd is also a terrible idea. He wasn't signed to be Calvin Johnson. His numbers were way above the receivers that have been in his position the past few years.

Why do you think Ocho never saw the ball? Sure, he wasn't close to a great route runner and he came into new England slower than his Cincy days, but really, he wasn't a high priority target. Neither is Lloyd. Considering that, Lloyd did pretty well, almost exactly half of what Welker does as the top weapon on offense

Welk 2012: 16 games 118 Rec. for 1,354 yards and 6 TDs
Lloyd 2012: 13 games 57 Rec. for 650 yards and 4 TDs
Lloyd 2010: 16 games 77 Rec. for 1,448 yards and 11 TDs
Ocho 2011: 15 games 15 Rec. for 276 yards and 1 TD

Remember the type of routes Welker usually runs. Which part of the field he runs them in. You will not find someone who can take the consistent hitting of the slot and put up numbers even close to Welker's without spending a lot more time and money than it would take to just keep him.

13,17,21,14,14.........points Pats scored in their playoff losses in the WW era. When the Pats play complete defenses on the big stage, their small ball approach gets snuffed out. Defenses can squeeze the center of the field knowing Brady's fleet of short route specialists
will rarely try to expand the field.
The time may have come to explore alternatives. Verses Baltimore, Kaepernick had only 16 completions but for 300+ yds and his team scored 31. Brady had 29 completions for 300+ yds but amassed only 13 points.. In this small ball offense, Brady had 25 incompletions....that's 25 plays of no gain......add in 3 runs of zero yds and 3 turnovers gets you 38% of offensive plays went for no gain or worse. A 53% passing attack that nets low yards/play.......that's the formula that loses verses championship caliber defenses.

 

[p8ryts]

Ok with Welker leaving.
Talib will want too much money
Lloyd is worth his contract
How about this as a money saver? Trade Mankins, sign Thomas. Mankins ought to be worth a number 1. Mankins is breaking down, Thomas did well in his place last year.
Keep Vollmer.
Somebody mentioned rebuilding. What? This team has been rebuilding for three years. Yes we could use a coverage middle linebacker, yes we could use a top flight SS, yes we could use a big fast WR. Who doesn't? Bill will tweak, fans will freak and we will compete for the division championship, the afc championship and maybe the super bowl.

 

[Brady2Moss]

Ok with Welker leaving.
Talib will want too much money
Lloyd is worth his contract
How about this as a money saver? Trade Mankins, sign Thomas. Mankins ought to be worth a number 1. Mankins is breaking down, Thomas did well in his place last year.
Keep Vollmer.
Somebody mentioned rebuilding. What? This team has been rebuilding for three years. Yes we could use a coverage middle linebacker, yes we could use a top flight SS, yes we could use a big fast WR. Who doesn't? Bill will tweak, fans will freak and we will compete for the division championship, the afc championship and maybe the super bowl.

Mankins is breaking down --ought to be worth a 1?
Guy who actually has been broken down his entire career here is worth keeping though and paying top dollar too.

This baffles me.

 

[Ring 6]

Ok with Welker leaving.
Talib will want too much money
Lloyd is worth his contract
How about this as a money saver? Trade Mankins, sign Thomas. Mankins ought to be worth a number 1. Mankins is breaking down, Thomas did well in his place last year.
Keep Vollmer.
Somebody mentioned rebuilding. What? This team has been rebuilding for three years. Yes we could use a coverage middle linebacker, yes we could use a top flight SS, yes we could use a big fast WR. Who doesn't? Bill will tweak, fans will freak and we will compete for the division championship, the afc championship and maybe the super bowl.

The cap hit of trading Mankins is higher than the cap hit of keeping hit.

 

[Betterthanmost]

Resign Arrington? What value does he bring other than just running around?

 

[Sticky Caulk]

13,17,21,14,14.........points Pats scored in their playoff losses in the WW era. When the Pats play complete defenses on the big stage, their small ball approach gets snuffed out. Defenses can squeeze the center of the field knowing Brady's fleet of short route specialists
will rarely try to expand the field.
The time may have come to explore alternatives. Verses Baltimore, Kaepernick had only 16 completions but for 300+ yds and his team scored 31. Brady had 29 completions for 300+ yds but amassed only 13 points.. In this small ball offense, Brady had 25 incompletions....that's 25 plays of no gain......add in 3 runs of zero yds and 3 turnovers gets you 38% of offensive plays went for no gain or worse. A 53% passing attack that nets low yards/play.......that's the formula that loses verses championship caliber defenses.

The Patriots offense didn't finish well against Baltimore, but acting as if yardage was the reason is incorrect. Like I said, they didn't finish. They got themselves into scoring position over and over. They couldn't cap drives off with scores.

Let's have a playoffs with Gronk healthy and see what happens.

I think that Getting to the AFC Championship game multiple times shouldn't be looked down on. Of course your offense is going to get stalled consistently when you do that. Harder competition. You have to keep the players that get you there.

 

[Ring 6]

13,17,21,14,14.........points Pats scored in their playoff losses in the WW era.

1) Isolating the points score in the playoff losses without recognizing the playoff wins, and that the most prolific offense in the NFL is the only reason they are there to begin with it dubious.
2) Eliminating the one thing the team does best is an idiotic method to improve the team.
3) Which teams are scoring a lot of points in their playoff losses?

When the Pats play complete defenses on the big stage, their small ball approach gets snuffed out. Defenses can squeeze the center of the field knowing Brady's fleet of short route specialists
will rarely try to expand the field.

This is simply not true. The defenses we have faced in playoff losses are very different with different schemes (even the 09 and 12 Ravens were very different defenses)
We also moved the ball up and down the field on Bmore and stalled inside the 25 which is totally inconsistent with anything in the history of this offense.
The only similarity is you pretending there is a similarity.

The time may have come to explore alternatives. Verses Baltimore, Kaepernick had only 16 completions but for 300+ yds and his team scored 31. Brady had 29 completions for 300+ yds but amassed only 13 points.. In this small ball offense, Brady had 25 incompletions....that's 25 plays of no gain......add in 3 runs of zero yds and 3 turnovers gets you 38% of offensive plays went for no gain or worse. A 53% passing attack that nets low yards/play.......that's the formula that loses verses championship caliber defenses.

The silliness of judging an offensive scheme on one game is beyond explanation. But you top yourself by comparing it to a totally different team with entirely different type of players, indoors vs outside in heavy wind and 30 degrees.

 

[Ring 6]

The Patriots offense didn't finish well against Baltimore, but acting as if yardage was the reason is incorrect. Like I said, they didn't finish. They got themselves into scoring position over and over. They couldn't cap drives off with scores.

Let's have a playoffs with Gronk healthy and see what happens.

I think that Getting to the AFC Championship game multiple times shouldn't be looked down on. Of course your offense is going to get stalled consistently when you do that. Harder competition. You have to keep the players that get you there.

And not finishing is not an inherent problem that this offense has consistently struggled with.
But, hey, lets take away the #1 strength the team has. I guess 8-8 won't give us any playoff disappoinments

 

[Rob0729]

13,17,21,14,14.........points Pats scored in their playoff losses in the WW era. When the Pats play complete defenses on the big stage, their small ball approach gets snuffed out. Defenses can squeeze the center of the field knowing Brady's fleet of short route specialists
will rarely try to expand the field.
The time may have come to explore alternatives. Verses Baltimore, Kaepernick had only 16 completions but for 300+ yds and his team scored 31. Brady had 29 completions for 300+ yds but amassed only 13 points.. In this small ball offense, Brady had 25 incompletions....that's 25 plays of no gain......add in 3 runs of zero yds and 3 turnovers gets you 38% of offensive plays went for no gain or worse. A 53% passing attack that nets low yards/play.......that's the formula that loses verses championship caliber defenses.

Again, the Pats had 5 trips into the red zone against the Ravens with one TD to show for it. So are you arguing the Pats need a deep threat that can stretch the field 10-20 yards? Again, the Pats missed a big target in the red zone (Gronk anyone?). Not that their "small ball" offense was missing a deep threat. A guy who can stretch the field 30 yards isn't needed on a first and goal on the 10.

 

[Sticky Caulk]

And not finishing is not an inherent problem that this offense has consistently struggled with.
But, hey, lets take away the #1 strength the team has. I guess 8-8 won't give us any playoff disappoinments

Exactly how I feel. Everyone acts as if this record setting offense is made up of a bunch of easy to replace, interchangeable parts. If the NEP let Welker go, the offense is not going to be better for it.

Do people realize the only reason The Patriots lose big playoff games is because this incredible offense gets them to those games? Is it better to come close, but a bit short or not be there at all?

 

[MTaylorJ1]

And not finishing is not an inherent problem that this offense has consistently struggled with.
But, hey, lets take away the #1 strength the team has. I guess 8-8 won't give us any playoff disappoinments

I could see letting Welker go if you thought he's starting to show the wear of being a high volume slot guy for all these years. I don't get letting Welker and Lloyd go at the same time (esp. over a paltry $3m) for all the disappointment in Lloyd, he had 900+ yards and produced against good defenses. Just what we needed him for really. I also think the idea of drafting a WR high is a sketchy one to replace Welker. Aside from Branch, who is decidedly NOT the type of WR people are looking to bring in, has our high round drafting of WRs to stretch the field been very productive at all? (Bethel, Chad Jackson, Tate). Still too many holes on the defense to whiff on a pick like that (and I'm pretty confident they'll whiff again there, seems like a scouting hole to me or poor skillset fit with the QB, who isn't changing).

You could potentially make an argument for Bowe, because of the size fit and familiarity with Daboll. But in the draft? I think that's a mistake. Press corner, and interior line help for me please. The one glaring need this team has in my mind is the inability to rush the passer up the middle.

 

[Rob0729]

Bedard really lost me when he suggested replacing Welker and Lloyd with possibly Danny Amedola and Josh Cribbs.

He means the Josh Cribs who had 7 catches for 63 yards in 16 games last year? He means the guy who's career year was 41 catches for 518 yards and 4 TDs. The guy is a great special teams player, but he is a back up at best as a WR. If the Pats resigned Welker and Edelman and keep Lloyd, he would be the #4 WR at best.

Amedola could be great in McDaniels' system, but the guy has played 12 games in the last two years. He missed five games last season and 15 games the year before. You cannot go into the season as him as your anointed #1 WR. You can't count on him lasting 16 games.

Although I am not on board with letting Welker and Lloyd go, I think the Pats will have to consider giving up the first rounder and going after Victor Cruz if they let both go. They will have to make a splash at WR in free agency if they let both go and he is the only guy that really fits in the system with big production potential in free agency is Cruz (IMHO). The Giants will likely tender him the highest tender and it will take a first to get him. Not advocating this move, but it may be the only logical way to replacing both Welker and Lloyd assuming they don't hit big in the draft (as others pointed out, the Pats haven't done so with WR in a long time).

 

[Ring 6]

How is the offense that was #1 in yards, points and first downs, and was 7th in 20+ plays, 9th in yards per attempt, and 9th in yards per completion a 'small ball' team.
The Ravens and Patriots had the same yards per completion.
Green Bay, Denver, Houston, Detroit, Atlanta, were among the teams that played 'smaller ball' than the Patriots average less per completion.