Bedard: let six free agents walk

[Ring 6]

I think most of us here are close to agreement. If Woody expects or can get big bucks, we have potential depth to let it happen and keep the cap $, otherwise for just a couple hundred K above vet he's a proven big game player unlike say Hooman who went all Caspar the Ghost vs the Ravinz.

You rarely have the luxury of moving on to a proven replacement.
The coaching staff has seen Vereens skillset. To me its a reasonable replacement for the Woodhead role.
If its a downgrade, is it really enough of a downgrade to worry about?
I'd certainly rather take the money and upgrade the nickel DT pass rushing position and take my chances with Vereen, than to continue to trot Wilfork, Deaderick and Love out there and get no pass rush at all.

 

[MTaylorJ1]

You rarely have the luxury of moving on to a proven replacement.
The coaching staff has seen Vereens skillset. To me its a reasonable replacement for the Woodhead role.
If its a downgrade, is it really enough of a downgrade to worry about?
I'd certainly rather take the money and upgrade the nickel DT pass rushing position and take my chances with Vereen, than to continue to trot Wilfork, Deaderick and Love out there and get no pass rush at all.

I only regret that I have but one like to give.

Interior Pass rush. Base and Sub. Needs to be prioritized in a huge way.

 

[naF staP]

An offseason to-do list for the New England Patriots - Sports - The Boston Globe

Bedard sums up his Patriots offseason plan with "let Welker, Lloyd, Talib, Donald Thomas, Chung and Vollmer walk in free agency. Re-sign Edelman, Arrington, Woodhead, Scott and Cole."

This is absurd talk. Vollmer and Welker go? At the very least you keep one of them if not both. Cant do that due to cap space people say and I retort that the owners don't get to where they are without knowing how to twist and turn things to make things work. I'm sure the Patriots can figure a way to shuffle money around and redo contracts in order to keep the people they need and Vollmer and Welker are two people they need.

Talib will want more then he is worth. He needs to prove he can play a whole season before paying him the green. He's good and all but where was he when the Pats needed him most? On the sidelines hurt. Same thing with Edelman, do not resign Edelman expecting him to take over for Welker because he can't! He needs to prove himself. Looks like the Pats tried to get Edelman to take over this past season and it didn't work. He was on the sideline hurt too while Welker put up another amazing season. Can you imagine what the team would have been like this past season had they let Welker walk and expected Edelman to take over.

Dump the others and get a WR who can work the middle and go deep, something Lloyd wasn't able to do as expected this past season. You let Welker walk this team takes two steps backwards.

 

[Brady2Moss]

Its better than using your standard...if we had a good game they stink, it we didnt they are good.


Because you need it to in order to support your argument.



Again, keeping with your argument, if we did well they suck, if we didn't they are great, so therefore we can't beat great defenses. You are making up the rules as you go.


The Ravens allowed 43 to Houston. Wanna try again?



Of course it is. Then you can define good defense as any team we lose to and bad defense as any team we beat. You are making an argument then creating the definitions as if they fit your argument they are correct and if they do not, they aren't.


So we were toast the first time we faced the Ravens this year and scored 30?
What exactly is a 'defense that stops YAC'? We had 428 yard vs the Ravens. They didn't win because they 'stopped YAC'. They won because we got inside the 25 6 times and scored 13 points, (nothing to do with YAC) because we allowed 3 consecutive TD drives without resistance, because Ridley was knocked unconscious and fumbled, because we had 4-5 missed 3rd down conversions on plays that were there and that we convert 95% of the time.
If we had an offense that was inherently incapable of scoring points against that Baltimore defense we would have finished in the bottom half of the NFL in scoring. Teams have bad days, that is not a reason to get rid of their strengths.

How about you try again they never allowed more than 35 points in the PLAYOFFS which is what im talking about not what happened against Houston in like week 5 LOL.

I guess everything just boils down to a bad day what can you do right?

They were toast the Ravens didn't allow any chunk yards and made us get into 3rd down situations multiple times and stopped us. That's the problem with this offense can't do crap if it isn't getting YAC to get easy first downs like it does against the Bills and Dolphins.

And actually I think being unable to do anything in the red zone is a function of Gronkowski obviously, but also the nature of the offense that depends on YAC. YAC is even harder in the red zone when things are more condensed, showing that they couldn't do crap once they got there and the field became even smaller.

You'll see they'll face the same type of team next year and lose to them because they can barely crack 20 points. That is if they bring Welker back which I'm thinking they are leaning to not doing. Probably because they realize a slot receiver isn't worth it.

 

[kennyb]

I think they'll let all of them walk, with the exception of maybe Thomas. There's also a chance welker comes back if he doesn't get the money he thinks he'll get in FA.

It'll be good in the long run. Maybe some guys on the practice squad can step up. Maybe they'll have a good draft pick or two as WRs. Maybe a lot more 3 TE sets and 2 back sets will negate the need for more than 1 or 2 WRs.

In the end, they'll probably win the division even though the beginning might be a little rough.

 

[cstjohn17]

Please list all the currently available (or listed as to be available) WRs who's production is similar to Welker's and will be a signing for less money.

Good point, Welker is a full out stud but... if he takes 1/2 the cap space then I would look at Edelman or other slot WRs for 1/4 or less of the price. Baked into my assumptions is the thought the Patriots will be changing their offense and using TEs in the middle with more traditional outside WRs.

 

[MP-Logick]

PFT, of course, is basically reporting this as news based off of Bedard's speculation.

 

[Ring 6]

How about you try again they never allowed more than 35 points in the PLAYOFFS which is what im talking about not what happened against Houston in like week 5 LOL.

Well when you are making up definitions you must be more clear.
So, when you said they NEVER gave up 41 like Houston did, you meant never means in their 4 postseason games? And the difference between a great defense and a poor one was they gave up 35 that day while Houston gave up 41?
OK, so we ALWAYS lose to teams with great defenses, you know the ones that allow 35 points in the divisional round and beat the really crap ones, the ones that are better all year long, but give up 41 on the same day. Gotcha. Whats the plan to attack that problem?

I guess everything just boils down to a bad day what can you do right?

Sometimes, yes it does.

They were toast the Ravens didn't allow any chunk yards and made us get into 3rd down situations multiple times and stopped us. That's the problem with this offense can't do crap if it isn't getting YAC to get easy first downs like it does against the Bills and Dolphins.

We were inside the 25 6 times. We converted 47% of 3rd downs.
This game was unlike any other playoff game, and you continue to act like they are all the same.

And actually I think being unable to do anything in the red zone is a function of Gronkowski obviously, but also the nature of the offense that depends on YAC. YAC is even harder in the red zone when things are more condensed, showing that they couldn't do crap once they got there and the field became even smaller.

Then how are the Patriots historically very good in the red zone?
Again, you are making things up to try to fit your argument.
A team that is always good oin the red zone, but has a game where it is bad in the red zone is not a team with a sucky red zone scheme.

You'll see they'll face the same type of team next year and lose to them because they can barely crack 20 points.

So now your argument is you can see the future?
What exactly is the 'same type of team' when the last 5 playoff losses have not been to the same types of teams?

That is if they bring Welker back which I'm thinking they are leaning to not doing. Probably because they realize a slot receiver isn't worth it.

Key sign of a weak argument, grasping at straws and calling what you guess someone is thinking a fact.
Why did they pay him 9.5 million this year?

 

[supafly]

They were toast the Ravens didn't allow any chunk yards and made us get into 3rd down situations multiple times and stopped us. That's the problem with this offense can't do crap if it isn't getting YAC to get easy first downs like it does against the Bills and Dolphins.

Not to nitpick your comments, but there are a couple of things that could use some clearing up. The Ravens allowed 7/15 3rd down conversions in the AFCCG, which would have put N.England at #1 in the NFL this year.

I also wouldn't limit their effectiveness to just the Bills/Dolphins either, as they defeated 7 or 8 of the top 10 defenses in 2010, and also had their way with many other good top 10 defenses this year. Here are examples of their effectiveness against SIX of the top 10 defenses in the league this year:

SF-31 pts
SEA-23 pts (should have been at least 26 had it not been for the 10 sec runoff of the first half which occurred within the 10 yd line)
BAL 1-30 pts
HOU 1-42 pts
HOU 2-45 pts
DEN-35 pts
MIA-28 pts

And actually I think being unable to do anything in the red zone is a function of Gronkowski obviously, but also the nature of the offense that depends on YAC. YAC is even harder in the red zone when things are more condensed, showing that they couldn't do crap once they got there and the field became even smaller.

I don't think it's fair to claim that the NEP are ineffective in the red zone, as that is not the case. They had the ball 8x inside the BAL 35, but the wind forced them to punt in 3 of those situations. That normally doesn't happen, neither does the Brady timing gaffe at the end of the half. Either way they had an excellent chance at making it a 20-7 or 16-7 game halfway through the 3rd quarter and failed due to the Welker drop, then again due to the inability to convert on the Pollard personal foul situation.

Back to back weird turnovers didn't help either in the ensuing drives.

Sometimes you just have a bad day, and/or the other team plays better than you. I would argue that the game was determined much more by the fact that Cole was forced to try and cover Boldin, which ended up being a huge downfall for the pass defense which allowed 3 late game TD's.

You'll see they'll face the same type of team next year and lose to them because they can barely crack 20 points. That is if they bring Welker back which I'm thinking they are leaning to not doing. Probably because they realize a slot receiver isn't worth it.

I agree with you that we could see the same in the playoffs next year after a game or two. After all, the odds greatly increase when you are playing 2-3 quality defenses in a row that they are not going to be able to score 30+ pts. To me, that is a given.

I personally don't think that addition by subtraction with Welker is the way to do this, but you obviously feel differently, so it's really anyone's guess as to what can happen.

One thing I'd keep in mind is that the loss of Welker will probably greatly reduce those gutty first down chain sniffers that you are speaking of earlier in your post though.


EDIT: Sorry, I see that AndyJohnson has addressed some of these topics in his post. This happened while I was typing mine. I don't mean to be redundant.

 

[supafly]

PFT, of course, is basically reporting this as news based off of Bedard's speculation.

Of course they are...

PFT has lost some credibility in my eyes this year, due to some of their ridiculous speculation and baseless reporting. That said, I'll still likely use their site, but I have learned to take a lot of their stories with a huge grain of salt.

Just the other day we saw a story on how "NE had 35% of their cap tied up in just 3 players." That pointed to us being in some kind of weird cap hell, which isn't the case at all.

They failed to tell the reader that we have 22 players signed before you even get to the 2/3 mark, something that many others teams cannot claim.

 

[Sciz]

Bedard said that he was not going to mention specific free agents, and I think that may have led him to not realize how few options there are for good outside receivers. Assuming we exclude Wallace and Jennings (for being smaller than ideal and very expensive), that leaves:
Dwayne Bowe - 6'2" with 4.40 speed, but has some on-field character question marks, and will also be very expensive
Brian Hartline - 6'2" with 4.50 speed, not really a clear upgrade over Lloyd
Darrius Heyward-Bey - 6'2" with 4.25 speed, but very questionable hands and production

Other than that, I'm not seeing a whole lot at the X position unless we start looking at a trade for a guy like Kenny Britt (which opens another can of worms).

 

[Patriot Missile]

Bedard said that he was not going to mention specific free agents, and I think that may have led him to not realize how few options there are for good outside receivers. Assuming we exclude Wallace and Jennings (for being smaller than ideal and very expensive), that leaves:
Dwayne Bowe - 6'2" with 4.40 speed, but has some on-field character question marks, and will also be very expensive
Brian Hartline - 6'2" with 4.50 speed, not really a clear upgrade over Lloyd
Darrius Heyward-Bey - 6'2" with 4.25 speed, but very questionable hands and production

Other than that, I'm not seeing a whole lot at the X position unless we start looking at a trade for a guy like Kenny Britt (which opens another can of worms).

If Britts head was screwed on right he would be a great addition here.

Got a feeling Bowe or Harvin will end up in Seattle.

 

[supafly]

If Britts head was screwed on right he would be a great addition here.

Got a feeling Bowe or Harvin will end up in Seattle.

I'm wondering if we aren't going to look towards this route on some level (not necessarily Britt) to try and improve through a lower risk/cost system?

Something tells me that when all is said and done, we're going to have to hope that someone either loses their character concerns or steps up talent wise.

We saw Belichick really go hard with bringing in some competition last year, even arguably the year on a lesser level. I'm guessing that continues this year with some guys that many here may write off too early, but could have the ability to work out.

On another note--Harvin or Bowe to SEA could be a scary thought. They look to be on the uprise. I absolutely loved R.Wilson at Wisconsin, despite his concerns about being too short. I'm glad that's one more team outside of the conference, although I would have loved a second crack at them in the SB.

 

[TomPatriot]

Doesn't this question really hinge on how much money Woodhead holds out for? As a 5th year veteran, the minimum is only something like $715,000, which is only about $300,000 more than the rookie minimum.

Yes, but I am assuming he wants a large raise or gets a much bigger offer elsewhere. He can be a productive role player so it would not be surprising.

 

[patriotsdynasty12189]

Cut Tom Brady, fire Bill Belichick, re-sign brian hoyer and start from scratch were no where close to another championship.

 

[NE_PATS_FAN_54]

1) Isolating the points score in the playoff losses without recognizing the playoff wins, and that the most prolific offense in the NFL is the only reason they are there to begin with it dubious.
2) Eliminating the one thing the team does best is an idiotic method to improve the team.
3) Which teams are scoring a lot of points in their playoff losses?

First off, I love the debate and I am a huge fan of Bedard's. It's nice to have someone covering the Patriots who a.) knows what he's talking about b.) offers a somewhat outside perspective(having covered the Packers) and c.) doesn't wash Bill's balls.

Now, I love this debate as well. I am on Bedard's wagon with this one. Let Welker get his $$ in free agency. However, I think they should keep Lloyd. He was the biggest bargain of last year's free agency. And as someone else mentioned, replacing Lloyd's production won't come cheap. By comparison, the top WR's in last year's class:

-Vincent Jackson (TB) - 5 years/$55 million, $26M guaranteed. (2012: 16 games, 72 catches, 8 TD's)
-Marques Colston (NO) - 5 years/$40 million, about $18M guaranteed. (2012: 16 games, 83 catches, 10 TD's)
-Reggie Wayne (IND) - 3 years/$17.5 million, $7.5M guaranteed (2012: 16 games, 106 catches, 5 TD's)
-Robert Meachem (SD) - 4 years/$26 million, $14M guaranteed (2012: 15 games, 3 starts, 14 catches, 2 TD's)
-Mario Manningham (SF) - 2 years/$7.4 million, $4M guaranteed (2012:12 games, 10 starts, 42 catches, 1 TD)
-Pierre Garcon (WAS) - 5 years/$42.5 million, $21.5 guaranteed (2012: 10 games, 44 catches, 4 TD's)
-Josh Morgan(WAS) - 2 years/$12million, $7.5M guaranteed (2012:16 games, 48 catches, 2 TD's)
-Eddie Royal(SD) - 3 years/$13.5 million, $6M guaranteed (2012: 10 games, 2 starts, 23 catches, 1 TD)

-Brandon Lloyd (NE) - 3 years/$12million, approx. $7M guaranteed (2012:16 games, 73 catches, 4 TD's)

Considering his cap hit was $2M last year, he was a steal. But is he worth $4.5M this year? $5.5M next year? I think so. I think the Pats need to overhaul the offense. I do think the Pats should press Lloyd to take a pay cut. Doubt it works, but it could happen.

What struck me most while compiling these #'s is A) I now can see why the Chargers canned their entire Personnel dept. and Coaching staff with signings like Meachem and Royal. B) The starting point for WR's like Jennings,Bowe, Wallace is Jackson's 5yrs/$55M, $26M guaranteed. For Welker, I'd imagine he will come out around 3 yrs/$33M, $17-20M guaranteed. A team could give a 4th year that Welker will never see just to make it look better.

A lot of what they do with Lloyd will depend on what they want to do to replace Welker. Do they go with a guy like Wallace? If so, Lloyd's role would take a hit and he may not be worth the 4.5 cap hit. Wallace would add a dynamic aspect to this offense. Having missed 1 game in 4 years, he would also provide the desired durability.

My thoughts on some others:
On Vollmer, let him walk. Pats have their franchise tackle with Solder and will need to pay him big time $$ in a few years. Can't afford two players being paid like franchise tackles. Use the 2nd/3rd on a tackle or grab a 2nd tier guy in FA (great depth at the tackle spot in free agency, btw).

Arrington, I agree with Bedard. Re-sign him. He is a very good slot corner. He is a not a good cover corner. Pay him as such.

Edelman, bring him back I suppose. 1 year "show-me" deal. 2 years at most, cheap $$.

Chung, adios. I think he will do well elsewhere. Just didn't pan out as hoped. Take a look at Jarius Byrd, William Moore. I think Louis Delmas if healthy (big IF) would be an outstanding player. Could be worth a flier.

 

[Deus Irae]

First off, I love the debate and I am a huge fan of Bedard's. It's nice to have someone covering the Patriots who a.) knows what he's talking about b.) offers a somewhat outside perspective(having covered the Packers) and c.) doesn't wash Bill's balls.

Now, I love this debate as well. I am on Bedard's wagon with this one...

Bedard's column is a joke.

WR - Cribbs, Ebert, Edelman, Ebert, non-existent X receiver
CB - Dowling/Rookie, Dennard, Arrington


He either never bothered to look at the WR FA class, or he just wrote this garbage because his deadline was coming and he didn't have time to actually think.


If he worked in an industry where quality mattered, that column could have gotten him fired.

 

[Sciz]

Bedard's column is a joke.

WR - Cribbs, Ebert, Edelman, Ebert, non-existent X receiver
CB - Dowling/Rookie, Dennard, Arrington


He either never bothered to look at the WR FA class, or he just wrote this garbage because his deadline was coming and he didn't have time to actually think.


If he worked in an industry where quality mattered, that column could have gotten him fired.

And if forum posters could be fired for slanting things to fit their opinion, then you'd be fired too.

He clearly said the best X receiver on the market. Whether you think that's Jennings, Bowe, or Wallace, take your pick. That's who he wants to add. It's slim pickings, but not your "non-existent" crap. He also mentions Amendola in addition to Cribbs, but no, you want to make him look as bad as possible.

And that CB rookie isn't just any rookie. He very clearly (to the unbiased folks) says first round CB, and he clarified on Twitter that he meant to pick a first round rookie and anything from Dowling is a bonus. So we're probably talking Banks, Rhodes, or perhaps Trufant. He also very clearly says "IF TALIB LEAVES," which you conveniently ignored.

So perhaps we should cite Bedard for saying what he actually is saying, rather than what you want to say that he's saying:

WR - Bowe/Jennings/Wallace, Edelman, Amendola/Cribbs
CB - Talib/Banks/Rhodes/Trufant, Dennard, Arrington

 

[Deus Irae]

And if forum posters could be fired for slanting things to fit their opinion, then you'd be fired too.

He clearly said the best X receiver on the market. Whether you think that's Jennings, Bowe, or Wallace, take your pick. That's who he wants to add. It's slim pickings, but not your "non-existent" crap. He also mentions Amendola in addition to Cribbs, but no, you want to make him look as bad as possible.

No, I'm specifically using the players he mentioned. Cribbs is not expected to get the tag if he can't work out a deal. Amendola getting the tag is considered likely if a deal can't be worked out.

And that CB rookie isn't just any rookie. He very clearly (to the unbiased folks) says first round CB, and he clarified on Twitter that he meant to pick a first round rookie, and to give Dowling the (presumed slim) chance to beat out that rookie. So we're probably talking Banks, Rhodes, or perhaps Trufant. He also very clearly says "IF TALIB LEAVES," which you conveniently ignored.

Amusing that you talk about my slant while slanting the hell out of your response. I noted "rookie" and had it matched up with Dowling, but you had to pretend I talked that down. Also, given that his line

So in summation, my offseason plan would be to let Welker, Lloyd, Talib, Donald Thomas (who will get starter guard money), Patrick Chung, and Vollmer walk in free agency.

includes Talib, you can stop pretending that I was slanting anything by not including Talib.

So perhaps we should cite Bedard for saying what he actually is saying, rather than what you want to say that he's saying...

Perhaps you can stop pretending I wasn't straight up about what he wrote. His analysis tends to be hit and miss, and this attempt of his was horrible, which is what I demonstrated using the specifics found in the column itself. Your post was about as bad as Bedard's column.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

yeah..lets dump our # 1 and #2 WR....good luck getting that ring for brady before he retires then unless they sign wallace and harvin and someone else