Alright, here's my first real mock of the season. Biggest change from my really broad mock a while ago is changing the first pick to not be a big DE, thanks to the addition of Armstead.
Resign: Edelman, Fletcher (RFA), White, Arrington
Sign: Cassel, Brian Hartline, and someone along the lines of Talib, Keenan Lewis, Sean Smith, etc.
Hartline put up 1083 yards for the Dolphins last season and would bring size (6'2") and speed (4.49) to the Pats' receiving group. He is reportedly seeking a contract in the $5-6M range, which seems reasonable to me for an 26 year old, 1k yard, outside receiver. The biggest concern is his lack of TDs (1), but it's worth pointing out that only Fasano (5 TDs) had more than 2 and that the Dolphins' QBs only threw 13 TDs total. Hartline would easily have more TDs in NE.
Trade Mallett for the Browns' 3rd and 4th, plus picks in 2014 if you don't think that's enough.
29. Trade down with the Eagles for their 2nd (35) and their 4th
35: Larry Warford, G, Kentucky
Surprise! While there's fantastic depth at other positions, the offensive line is a little more top-heavy. With Cannon taking over at right tackle, it's the perfect time for a little bit of a change, with the right side of the line suddenly becoming about 20 pounds heavier at each spot. Connolly and Wendell battle it out at center, with I presume Wendell winning and Connolly backing up all three interior spots and being used more liberally as a fullback.
59: Bennie Logan, DT, LSU
While the ends got more coverage at LSU, Logan is the one that I'm most interested in. He's a quicker DT than what the Pats are used to having, so he should be able to improve the interior pass rush, eventually turning into a long-term 3-tech 3-down lineman.
68 (From Cleveland for Mallett): David Amerson, S, North Carolina State
I don't think Amerson is a corner, at least for what the Pats want to do, but he's got an intriguing skill set to play next to McCourty. He's a bigger DB who should be able to handle TEs better than a guy like McCourty or Gregory (not that the latter is saying much), and he has outstanding recognition and ball skills, making him an intriguing robber at the SS position. Not sure how well he'd be as a cover 2 safety, but that's minor to me as long as he can man up on TEs and play the robber. While a big name free agent or a high pick would go a long way toward fixing the SS spot, I'm going to go with the "crap against a wall" strategy and hope that Amerson, Wilson, or even Dowling or Ebner sticks, or we're stuck with Gregory for another year.
91: Marquise Goodwin, WR, Texas
I know he's rising this week, so this is a moderate increase of his current value that may still not be enough. With Lloyd and Hartline giving the Pats their first real pair of outside receivers since 2007, someone needs to play the slot. Oh, and I should probably mention that Goodwin is fast. Like, "win the combine 40" fast.
Eagles' 4th (~100): Trade down about half a round, picking up a fifth.
Browns' 4th: Nickell Robey, CB, USC
Yes, he's 5'8". That said, he's an explosive athlete with a much higher ceiling in the slot than Arrington. As long as the Pats can keep him there, then he's the kind of player who can handle Welker (wherever he ends up) and the similar players.
Random pick in the middle of the fourth (from earlier trade down): Cornelius Washington, DE, Georgia
I really think this guy is going to be better in the NFL than he was in college. He's got the size, he's got the speed, and he can play football. He's not an instant starter and is maybe never a starter, but he's got the potential to be a special specialist.
Random pick in the middle of the fifth (from earlier trade down): Michael Williams, TE, Alabama
"Hello, Michael. Bill Belichick. We're drafting you. Go gain 30 pounds. No, you're not playing tackle, at least not right away. You have two jobs. You need to be the best blocking TE in the NFL without it even being close, and you need to be able to run five yards, turn around, and catch the ball. Now go eat some goddamn snacks."
Tampa Bay's 7th: Luke Marquardt, OT, Azuza Pacific
He's big, he's talented, and he plays at a school that nobody's heard of. With Vollmer leaving, the Pats don't really have a true backup left tackle. It's Marquardt's job to turn into that. And it doesn't hurt that his position coach at Azuza Pacific is Matt Slater's HOF dad Jackie.
Pats' 7th: MarQueis Gray, QB/WR/TE/BBQ, Minnesota
He split time between QB and WR in college. He's probably a TE in the NFL. He's big (6'4", 245), and he's dangerous with the ball in his hands. In an ideal world, he can play the Hernandez role for the 4 games a year that Hernandez will inevitably miss.
Rough depth chart:
QB: Brady, Cassel
RB: Ridley, Vereen, Bolden, Demps
WR: Lloyd, Hartline, Goodwin, Edelman, Slater
TE: Gronkowski, Hernandez, Ballard, Williams, Gray
OT: Solder, Cannon, Zusevics, Marquardt
IL: Mankins, Wendell, Warford, Connolly, McDonald
DE: Jones, Ninkovich, Armstead, Cunningham, Francis, Bequette, Washington (somebody's gonna have to go here)
DT: Wilfork, Logan, Love, Deaderick, Pryor
LB: Mayo, Spikes, Hightower, Fletcher, White, Tarpinian
CB: Lewis/Talib/?, Dennard, Robey, Dowling, Arrington
S: McCourty, Amerson, Wilson, Ebner
ST: Gostkowski, Mesko, Aiken
Alright, a few more overlying points. First of all, this was done with letting Welker, Vollmer, and possibly Talib go, and only signing Hartline and possibly a CB. I haven't run the numbers, but they can fit everybody under the cap.
The offense undergoes a shift from a slot focus to being more traditional with a receiver on each side of the field and two TEs. That's not to say they can't get creative, though. In addition to the two WRs, two TEs, and Ridley, they have:
Vereen's untapped versatility
The pure speed of Demps and Goodwin
The "former QB" skills of Edelman and Gray
More "end around" candidates than ever
The "we're running and you can't stop us" package with Solder, Mankins, Wendell, Warford, Cannon, Williams, and Gronk with Connolly at FB
And with Goodwin and Edelman taking over slot duties, I think the Pats would have to make a conscious effort into changing how the slot WR is used in order to not get their new slot WRs killed. They're not using "I get up again" Welker anymore. It'd be doable, especially with the things that Goodwin could do that Welker can't.
The strategy on defense was more or less to add talent to the pass rush and the coverage. I'm perfectly okay with the LB group, as I think having a SS that can actually cover will help a ton. It's not crazy to think that Wilfork could be the only starter over 27, pending who is signed at CB. (Armstead over Ninko at LE in base.)
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand I just put way too much time into that. Good night!
