Prediction: The Pats' Pass Defense is About to Go From Terrible to Very Good

[jnug]

I was going to post about Vince's defensive snaps per game because even without looking I thought they were starting to get pretty high. In fact they are getting to be way up there for a guy playing where Vince plays.

While there were some Pats defenders that were out there for all 81 snaps, no Pats DT was out there as much as Vince. Ninko at DE was the only D-line guy out there for 81-81. VW was out there for 77-81. but Vince's total plays must be going through the ceiling especially in games like the Bills game. That is a lotta' snaps for a guy playing where Vince plays.

Clearly Vince is getting so many snaps as part of the Pats propensity to be run conscience first.

It is kind of a shame for Vince that he does not get to play as much nose tackle as he still sorta' plays tackle the same way he plays nose tackle, putting his flag in the sand at the LOS and not giving any ground from there. Not sure what we should expect from Vince as a pass rusher playing that many snaps and not as well suited to the four man front as the three.

If you look at the % of plays for Pats DT for the season it really starts to look insane. VW has been out there for just over 80% of the snaps. Love is next with 60% and no other DT tops 16%!

 

[Claremonster]

Here's how I see it:

Reasons for optimism:
1. Talib is an obvious upgrade in talent. The possible domino effect has been stated by others.
2. More blitzing in future games but this is obviously speculation.

Reasons for pessimism:
1. Still not enough talent in the secondary. We have no 3rd CB if McCourty is at FS. If McCourty is at CB we're counting on Chung / Gregory / Wilson at safety which hasn't worked yet. Our longshot saving grace: Cole emerging as a dependable 3rd CB or Arrington playing better against lesser receivers.
2. LB's aren't good in coverage. I think Mayo is under rated in coverage though. long shot saving grace: Chung playing as a coverage LB.

Dennard isn't a cb?

 

[Deus Irae]

As I said in the OP, the DEFENSE hasn't been bad this season. It's been average. The front 7 and the run defense have been good to great. The secondary and pass defense have been poor to terrible.

Yesterday the entire defense was poor. No 2 ways about it. Worst overall defensive performance of the year. So from that perspective, I'm treating it as an outlier. The Bills know our team and our tendencies, they have backs that create problems for us and an unorthodox offensive approach that tends to give us fits. 7 of the past 8 games against the Bills have not been straightforward (only a 34-3 blowout in late 2010 was easy).

Given how poorly Gregory, Chung and Wilson have all played, I'm going to be very interested in seeing how the team approaches the safety position. I want to see if BB thinks going with the McCourty/Talib CB, while hoping for safety improvement is the way to go, or whether he'll decide to keep McCourty at safety and hope that Dennard or Arrington can hold down the CB2 spot with the new help.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Dennard isn't a cb?

He is a raw, inexpereinced, but talented CB; and one who is frequently getting picked on...

 

[mayoclinic]

Given how poorly Gregory, Chung and Wilson have all played, I'm going to be very interested in seeing how the team approaches the safety position. I want to see if BB thinks going with the McCourty/Talib CB, while hoping for safety improvement is the way to go, or whether he'll decide to keep McCourty at safety and hope that Dennard or Arrington can hold down the CB2 spot with the new help.

I too will be interested to see what BB does. My personal feeling is that McCourty is badly needed as the deep FS/playmaker in the secondary more than as a cover CB, and he's not really a great man CB anyway. With McCourty guarding the deep part of the field and Talib able to handle man coverage on at least one of the other team's top receiving threats, I can live with Chung/Wilson/Gregory at the other safety spot. If Dennard can continue to progress, better yet. I'm just as unformtable with Arrington at outside CB as I am with Chung/Wilson/Gregory as the cover safety.

 

[Deus Irae]

I too will be interested to see what BB does. My personal feeling is that McCourty is badly needed as the deep FS/playmaker in the secondary more than as a cover CB, and he's not really a great man CB anyway.

I agree with you here. Neither Chung nor Wilson are in the NFL because of downfield coverage ability, and Gregory has been, unfortunately, what some of us were worried he would be. They need someone back there who can cover ground and make good reads. McCourty should be able to do that.

With McCourty guarding the deep part of the field and Talib able to handle man coverage on at least one of the other team's top receiving threats, I can live with Chung/Wilson/Gregory at the other safety spot. If Dennard can continue to progress, better yet. I'm just as unformtable with Arrington at outside CB as I am with Chung/Wilson/Gregory as the cover safety.

What some of the commentators have talked about was Talib taking the opponent's WR2 and having Dennard/Arrington cover the WR1 with safety help. Doing that runs counter to what BB prefers doing, but he may feel that he needs to do that right now, in order to get that backfield stabilized. Personally, I'd give Wilson the other safety job, because I think there's a high probability that Chung is elsewhere next year, but I can certainly understand how his poor play might keep BB from going that route.

 

[mayoclinic]

I agree with you here. Neither Chung nor Wilson are in the NFL because of downfield coverage ability, and Gregory has been, unfortunately, what some of us were worried he would be. They need someone back there who can cover ground and make good reads. McCourty should be able to do that.

Agreed. Gregory's a solid utility man, but not more. Not a starter. I think of him as James Sanders with a bit more speed and coverage ability. McCourty has the vision and ability to make reads, plus the ability to understand how the whole secondary plays. I could see him potentially making the entire secondary better, once he settles in to the role. It will take a bit of time, which is why I was glad to see BB leave him at FS last week, even if it meant exposing the CBs a bit. I wondered if it was a calculated gamble on BB's part that he could get away with that against the Bills.

What some of the commentators have talked about was Talib taking the opponent's WR2 and having Dennard/Arrington cover the WR1 with safety help. Doing that runs counter to what BB prefers doing, but he may feel that he needs to do that right now, in order to get that backfield stabilized. Personally, I'd give Wilson the other safety job, because I think there's a high probability that Chung is elsewhere next year, but I can certainly understand how his poor play might keep BB from going that route.

I too would tend to go with Wilson over Gregory (reserve/utility man) and Chung (in the box safety/hybrid S/LB role) assuming McCourty stays at FS. First, for the reason you state, that he is more likely to be the future than Chung. Second, because while Wilson hasn't been great making reads in deep coverage I think he has a bit more coverage ability than Chung, and if he's giving safety help to Dennard at times while Talib is left on an island with the #2 WR then I'd rather have Wilson than Chung. JMHO. But there will obviously be a learning curve if BB goes that way.

While I'm fairly high on Dennard, I would feel much more comfortable with one more guy with proven man-press CB skills. Arrington's not that guy, IMHO. Dowling showed flashes, but couldn't stay on the field. Cole might surprise a bit. But one more solid CB would really help.

 

[mayoclinic]

Nice read on some of the benefits of playing more press-man with a cover-1 deep FS:

Aqib Talib Will Help Shore Up Patriots Defense With a Switch in Scheme to More Man Coverages | New England Patriots | NESN.com

 

[nekromantique]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMarr

I have to agree. Jones is a rookie who, let's not kid ourselves, isn't JPP (yet). Nink, Love and Cunningham are all below-average NFL players IMO. Hightower isn't there yet. He and Spikes are well below average in dropping into coverage. But you have to live or die with these guys for the rest of the year, so that's why I liked the Talib move so much. Yes, these guys are good at stopping the run, but that doesn't help the secondary much. Even having RB studs like Spiller and Jackson, the Bills choose to basically bypass our strength and get them out in the flats on screens and pass plays as opposed to a straight up running attack. Good game plan.
I think BB and Patricia have done an okay job with the personnel they work withing with given that the secondary is below average as well.

Baloney. Love and Ninko are above-average, Cunninhamnis improving.

It's the NFL. Teams have bad days. The Bills have always given us problems. And if you think our defense looked bad, JPP and the Giants' fearsome deafened got shredded yesterday. It happens.

Obviously this defense hasn't been bad for only one game. I'm not trying to sugar-coat it. But the front 7 HAS been good, so I throw this game out as a bad game for them. And I'm not willing o judge the secondary until Talib gets worked in to the mix.

giants defense has been shredded almost as much as the pats. they've been pretty terrible against the run, bit better against the pass. they've been forcing turnovers though...just like the pats.


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[RodThePat]

giants defense has been shredded almost as much as the pats. they've been pretty terrible against the run, bit better against the pass. they've been forcing turnovers though...just like the pats.


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The Giants have a terrible secondary, just like the Patriots do, and they're worse against the run. One could argue they've been worse defensively than we have so far. The thing with that team, though, is that they have more than enough talent on the D-Line that if they start playing well at the right time they could take over games on their own. We lack that sort of talent in the pass-rushing department.

 

[nekromantique]

Quote:

Originally Posted by nekromantique

giants defense has been shredded almost as much as the pats. they've been pretty terrible against the run, bit better against the pass. they've been forcing turnovers though...just like the pats.


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The Giants have a terrible secondary, just like the Patriots do, and they're worse against the run. One could argue they've been worse defensively than we have so far. The thing with that team, though, is that they have more than enough talent on the D-Line that if they start playing well at the right time they could take over games on their own. We lack that sort of talent in the pass-rushing department.

definitely. most importantly imo is that we lack a real pass rushing threat in the middle. love and wilfork just aren't that type of player. ninkovich is doing fine on the outside. not elite...but sufficient...and jones has been more effective than most expected. but 2 legit pass rush threats isnt significant.


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[coolguy]

Am i the only one that thinks the patriots defense hasn't been the same since romeo left? Something seems to be missing since romoe left

 

[JoeShmoe]

Nice read on some of the benefits of playing more press-man with a cover-1 deep FS:

Aqib Talib Will Help Shore Up Patriots Defense With a Switch in Scheme to More Man Coverages | New England Patriots | NESN.com

We just have to hope this is where they go and get away from the soft zone approach. Worked well against the Rams but we went back to the zone approach against the bills, inexplicably

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

We just have to hope this is where they go and get away from the soft zone approach. Worked well against the Rams but we went back to the zone approach against the bills, inexplicably

Hopefully, the article appears to agree with my and many poster's feelings on how things should develop. It was a nice straightforward article, but I would've loved if it included some analysis on how that coverage has worked for the Pats up to this point. Until we actually know how they've performed on average it's hard to really "know" how much Talib will help. If they stick with what they're currently doing and Talib either stuggles or doesn't see the field I'll definitely wonder what the coaching staff is doing.

 

[Off The Grid]

What're we...2-7???

The flat out SQUEALING that I'm reading here is hysterical.

Anybody reading the whining, whimpering, and bleating, hereabouts, would think we're riding a 6 Game losing streak and haven't seen the PlayOffs since 1427!!

What a bunch of Pansies!!

Winning doesn't stop you discussing issues within the team.

You think Bellichick goes 'well we won so thats one more week I just turn a blind eye to any problems'?

Of course not. Fans have a reason to be worried.

If the answer is "of course not" ~ and it is ~ then why ask such a silly question in the first place?

You've got the wrong guy, if you think I'm laughing at people who're putting forward reasonable Arguments about concerns they have with this team: I've put forward a thousand'f'm, myself, so I'm hardly about to start casting stones.

It's the hysterics of the Chicken Littles in the wake of our 3rd consecutive victory ~ over a divisional foe who, as Brother Mayo aptly pointed out, is virtually always a "tough out" ~ that amuse me.

I can live with it whilst we're winning but I won't be living with it if this continues and effects us long term.

Can I persuade you to explain that statement?

Do you need a Suicide Hotline number??

 

[supafly]

Am i the only one that thinks the patriots defense hasn't been the same since romeo left? Something seems to be missing since romoe left

I think that is mostly coincidental myself, but I can understand that thought of course.

A couple things that come to mind are that Belichick himself took over the defense, and he's certainly just as good as Crennel was. I think the fact that we had a very good defense in 2006 (sans AFCCG collapse) also disproves the "Romeo" leaving theory.

Actually, the 18-1 year of 2007 was a pretty darn good defense too if you look at the stats.

I think it's just more of not being able to replace certain players/positions more than any one cause such as a specific DC such as Crennel. We have yet to replace the 'elephant' position for McGinnest, the loss of Seymour certainly was felt pretty deeply (and still may be, to be honest).

Then there's the secondary, which is a disaster in itself. The loss of a great player in Law, the loss of Samuel, the loss of Rodney Harrison...those players were just never replaced to this point, and the secondary is obviously the biggest weakness. If that issue was better, I think we'd feel a lot differently about this defense.

Just my opinion of course.

 

[manxman2601]

What some of the commentators have talked about was Talib taking the opponent's WR2 and having Dennard/Arrington cover the WR1 with safety help.

Nice read on some of the benefits of playing more press-man with a cover-1 deep FS:

Aqib Talib Will Help Shore Up Patriots Defense With a Switch in Scheme to More Man Coverages | New England Patriots | NESN.com

The article Mayo quotes suggests that other safety would play shallower to help out the linebacker's deficiencies in coverage. This would of course prevent him from helping out Dennard/Arrington covering the WR1. I think Talib should cover the other teams best outside receiver and hope that Dennard/Arrington don't give up too much to the other receiver.

If we can take away the deep middle (McCourty), one flank (Talib) and not give opposing TE's a free for all in the middle (combination of LB and Chung/Gregory), I'll accept giving up the odd completion on the CB #2 side.

 

[supafly]

The article Mayo quotes suggests that other safety would play shallower to help out the linebacker's deficiencies in coverage. This would of course prevent him from helping out Dennard/Arrington covering the WR1. I think Talib should cover the other teams best outside receiver and hope that Dennard/Arrington don't give up too much to the other receiver.

If we can take away the deep middle (McCourty), one flank (Talib) and not give opposing TE's a free for all in the middle (combination of LB and Chung/Gregory), I'll accept giving up the odd completion on the CB #2 side.

I think that the proper approach would be to double the other teams' WR1, and have Talib take his chances with the WR2 personally, but I can see your point.

I just don't see Talib as being the shutdown CB that we'd need going one on one with the other team's #1, but again...I do see your point and it makes some sense.

 

[manxman2601]

I think that the proper approach would be to double the other teams' WR1, and have Talib take his chances with the WR2 personally, but I can see your point.

I just don't see Talib as being the shutdown CB that we'd need going one on one with the other team's #1, but again...I do see your point and it makes some sense.

What bothers me is the acres of space Scott Chandler, Jeremy Kerley and Dustin Keller got over the middle against us. The deep outside pass has become much less of a factor now that McCourty has become a safety, it's the inability of our linebackers to defend the intermediate level that has become our biggest problem, hence why I want that safety helping out there.

 

[1960Pats]

It's a good time to be a Pats fan.

I've been saying this since 2004...some idiots just don't get it though and must continually cry about how "BAAAAAAAAAAAD!!! things are...they follow the teachings of THIS savior...

Remarkable, isn't it?

It was clear that we had the greatest Depth of Talent at O Back that this team has seen in any Era...and yet so many were bewailing the loss of BenJarvus Hyphenator, The Most Average Back Who Ever Lived.

If 3 months ago - at the beginning of training camp - I had started a thread predicting that at the midpoint of the season the Pats would rank 5th in rushing in the NFL, would be averaging almost 150 YPG and be on pace for nearly 2400 yards rushing (more than in 2004 or 2008), and that Stevan Ridley would lead the AFC in rushing, I probably would have been laughed off the board. In comparison, a thread predicting that our pass defense could be "very good" by playoff team seems rather tame.

Why do so many threads end up with some fans criticizing other fans for the concerns they have about our team? If some of us wanted we could be critical of a post that makes such an outrageous prediction as Mayo's, especially in light of what our eyes are seeing.

This team is giving up MORE THAN TWICE as many points in the fourth quarter as the first. They can't hold a lead of any kind with very few exceptions, and it's been that way for quite some time now. Pardon me if I don't do cartwheels over that or treat a Christmas wish list of how it will be so much better in the future as anything other than what it is, wishful thinking.

Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of changes that I'm thrilled about. The running game and the overall youth movement have been fantastic, but please don't try and say that our pass defense is anything but horrible. It sucks, plain and simple.

When I see the Pats finish off some games without allowing the opposing teams to go through them like a warm knife through soft butter, even those with lousy QBs, then I'll feel warm and fuzzy about the defense and it's future. Not one day sooner.