Prediction: The Pats' Pass Defense is About to Go From Terrible to Very Good

[mayoclinic]

Why do so many threads end up with some fans criticizing other fans for the concerns they have about our team? If some of us wanted we could be critical of a post that makes such an outrageous prediction as Mayo's, especially in light of what our eyes are seeing.

This team is giving up MORE THAN TWICE as many points in the fourth quarter as the first. They can't hold a lead of any kind with very few exceptions, and it's been that way for quite some time now. Pardon me if I don't do cartwheels over that or treat a Christmas wish list of how it will be so much better in the future as anything other than what it is, wishful thinking.

Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of changes that I'm thrilled about. The running game and the overall youth movement have been fantastic, but please don't try and say that our pass defense is anything but horrible. It sucks, plain and simple.

When I see the Pats finish off some games without allowing the opposing teams to go through them like a warm knife through soft butter, even those with lousy QBs, then I'll feel warm and fuzzy about the defense and it's future. Not one day sooner.

Let me be perfectly clear: I'm personally not criticizing anyone for being concerned about the pass defense. The pass defense has been abysmal so far, and anyone who hasn't been concerned about it should probably have their head examined.

As for my "outrageous prediction", I pretty much said in the "OP" that it was going out on a limb, and that it was based on the fact that there were a couple of significant changes happening which I thought could make a differences: the addition of a CB who would be a huge upgrade in Talib, the switch of McCourty to FS allowing him to guard the deep middle of the field, using Chung/Wilson more in a downfield mode and to help out the LBs instead of with the deep coverage, and a swtich to more of a press-man style with a cover-1 deep safety, My cautiouos optimism was predicated on those changes happening, and I specifically stated that it would take time and that I didn't expect to see results right away, for without some glitches. So my prediction was tempered by some moderation. Only 1 of those 4 changes happened in the Buffalo game (McCourty at FS), so it's not surprising to me that the "predicted" results didn't occur, yet a number of people have mocked the OP based on the results of that game, or derided the coaching staff without giving time to see how things unfold.

By all means, concern about the pass defense is 100% warranted, and will continue to be warranted until we see sustained improvement. I do believe that improvement is possible within a fairly short time. Whether it occurs remains to be seen.

 

[Kontradiction]

Nice read on some of the benefits of playing more press-man with a cover-1 deep FS:

Aqib Talib Will Help Shore Up Patriots Defense With a Switch in Scheme to More Man Coverages | New England Patriots | NESN.com

It was a good article up until the very end...

Talib will be a good test for the Patriots, as will Andrew Luck and the Colts’ passing offense on Sunday. If the Patriots still struggle mightily, we may not see this defense fixed all season.

I'm not expecting an awe inspiring performance by the Patriots pass defense in Talib's first game. We might see some minor improvements right off the bat, but this new addition and how he'll fit with the scheme/help others around him will take time. If the Pats pass defense still sucks a bag of 'em against the Colts this Sunday, I wouldn't be surprised in the least.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Andrew Luck will indeed be a good litmus test for the talib-infused defense. Let's see how we match up against the Colts newly minted franchise QB. I think he has a touch more talent than Fitzpatrick, and that guy only torches us for an average of 340+ yards per game.

Firing bill may have been too strong.

I think kraft should strip some duties from bill and bring in a new staff.

The main reason i wanted him fired is because i know bill will never allow kraft to hire a new staff.

Only bill guys from here on out.

Really? You went there? You think Kraft should be hiring BB's staff for him? Some thoughts just belong in the practice squad forum. Leave them there please.
*facepalm*

 

[RodThePat]

Andrew Luck will indeed be a good litmus test for the talib-infused defense. Let's see how we match up against the Colts newly minted franchise QB. I think he has a touch more talent than Fitzpatrick, and that guy only torches us for an average of 340+ yards per game.

Fitzpatrick has also played against this defense about five times. Luck is a rookie, and this will be his first exposure to it. Obviously he's way more talented than Fitzpatrick, but he's also way less experienced.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Firing bill may have been too strong.

I think kraft should strip some duties from bill and bring in a new staff.

The main reason i wanted him fired is because i know bill will never allow kraft to hire a new staff.

Only bill guys from here on out.

Candidate for the Worst Posts of the Year awards

I again give thanks that we have Bob Kraft who has learned to render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's and keep his meddling to the business side.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

Fitzpatrick has also played against this defense about five times. Luck is a rookie, and this will be his first exposure to it. Obviously he's way more talented than Fitzpatrick, but he's also way less experienced.

Point taken, especially considering that none of the division games are gimmes.

But then, during the last few years, has inexperience stood in the way of any opposing QB against our D, especially in the fourth quarter?

That said, I hope our D shuts them out.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Why do so many threads end up with some fans criticizing other fans for the concerns they have about our team? If some of us wanted we could be critical of a post that makes such an outrageous prediction as Mayo's, especially in light of what our eyes are seeing.

This team is giving up MORE THAN TWICE as many points in the fourth quarter as the first. They can't hold a lead of any kind with very few exceptions, and it's been that way for quite some time now. Pardon me if I don't do cartwheels over that or treat a Christmas wish list of how it will be so much better in the future as anything other than what it is, wishful thinking.

Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of changes that I'm thrilled about. The running game and the overall youth movement have been fantastic, but please don't try and say that our pass defense is anything but horrible. It sucks, plain and simple.

When I see the Pats finish off some games without allowing the opposing teams to go through them like a warm knife through soft butter, even those with lousy QBs, then I'll feel warm and fuzzy about the defense and it's future. Not one day sooner.

Frankly, I'm not at all surprised that they score more in the fourth quarter. By the fourth quarter, the other team is usually behind and knows it must throw in the time remaining. They also know that they cannot afford to not make first downs so they transform from a three down team to a four down team. That gives them 25% more attempts to get ten yards. Sometimes it works and even repeatedly... until it doesn't.

Which has happened a couple of times already.

 

[Marqui]

Interesting discussions on the Pats secondary, Talib, and the D's approach going forward:

Curran & Brown discuss the cornerbacks w/ Talib active
Troy's Advice for Pats D: Be aggressive because playing soft isn't working

 

[mayoclinic]

Interesting discussions on the Pats secondary, Talib, and the D's approach going forward:

Curran & Brown discuss the cornerbacks w/ Talib active
Troy's Advice for Pats D: Be aggressive because playing soft isn't working

Sounds vaguely familiar.

Not jamming/re-routing receivers + generous cushions + soft zones + poor safety help + poor tackling = disaster

 

[Joker]

Sounds vaguely familiar.

Not jamming/re-routing receivers + generous cushions + soft zones + poor safety help + poor tackling = disaster

sounds like a lack of proper PRACTICE to me...I was in a red rage Sunday...but today I see it was just one game...one horribly shoddy, mistake after stupid mistake abortion...BUT...a win is a win...they made the plays to do it...a bounce back beating of Indy in all phases will do wonders.

 

[coolguy]

Candidate for the Worst Posts of the Year awards

I again give thanks that we have Bob Kraft who has learned to render unto Caesar that which is Caesar's and keep his meddling to the business side.

"Until 2009, Belichick split many of the duties normally held by a general manager on other clubs with player personnel director Scott Pioli, though Belichick had the final say on football matters.[12] Since Pioli left for the Kansas City Chiefs after the 2009 season, Belichick has exercised almost complete control over the football side of the Patriots' operation." Bill Belichick - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


"Belichick has exercised almost COMPLETE control over the football side of the Patriots' operation."

SCREW YOU BUDDY!!

worst post of the year my ass.

 

[Avenger]

"Until 2009, Belichick split many of the duties normally held by a general manager on other clubs with player personnel director Scott Pioli, though Belichick had the final say on football matters.[12] Since Pioli left for the Kansas City Chiefs after the 2009 season, Belichick has exercised almost complete control over the football side of the Patriots' operation." Bill Belichick - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


"Belichick has exercised almost COMPLETE control over the football side of the Patriots' operation."

SCREW YOU BUDDY!!

worst post of the year my ass.

the 2009 draft wasn't particularly good league wide, but since then the 2010, 2011 and 2012 drafts have been very good.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

the 2009 draft wasn't particularly good league wide, but since then the 2010, 2011 and 2012 drafts have been very good.

But with the exception of the DBs and WRs who are all either scrubs,just not very good or not even in the league anymore

It seems Belichick couldn't draft a stud in either of those positions if he had 20 picks in the draft.....it's just so bad on those positions the past 5 years that is a huge failure on his otherwise,illustrious coaching career.

If he even had one above average player in both of those positions sometime in the past several years,the team definitely would have had at least another SB title by now

It seems the team lately in the past several years almost always falls short of a title because they didnt have a WR who can get deep and separate from his defender AND they have no corner or safety even close to resembling a shutdown player in the secondary.....both big reasons why they haven't gone all the way to happiness with the confetti flying at 0:00 in the first sunday of February

The team always has enough talent to get to the playoffs,but lack of newly drafted talented players at DB and a deep threat WR has always been the Achilles heel since 2004

 

[coolguy]

But with the exception of the DBs and WRs who are all either scrubs,just not very good or not even in the league anymore

It seems Belichick couldn't draft a stud in either of those positions if he had 20 picks in the draft.....it's just so bad on those positions the past 5 years that is a huge failure on his otherwise,illustrious coaching career.

If he even had one above average player in both of those positions sometime in the past several years,the team definitely would have had at least another SB title by now

It seems the team lately in the past several years almost always falls short of a title because they didnt have a WR who can get deep and separate from his defender AND they have no corner or safety even close to resembling a shutdown player in the secondary.....both big reasons why they haven't gone all the way to happiness with the confetti flying at 0:00 in the first sunday of February

The team always has enough talent to get to the playoffs,but lack of newly drafted talented players at DB and a deep threat WR has always been the Achilles heel since 2004

And this goes to my point that kraft should take some power away from bill and bring in a new team.

bill is way too proud to let someone else come in.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

And this goes to my point that kraft should take some power away from bill and bring in a new team.

bill is way too proud to let someone else come in.

You'll have to settle for 2nd worst post of the year for this one, since #125 won 1st.
Keep digging! It's amusing.

 

[Danger Zone]

And this goes to my point that kraft should take some power away from bill and bring in a new team.

bill is way too proud to let someone else come in.

Your point?

Your point??

I think a 'point' needs to have some semblence of intelligence before it can be considered a 'point'.

What you have is just the deranged accusatory finger- thrustings of a rambling idiot and madman.

Go work on your Manifesto or go back to berating everyone on 9th St. about the Shining People living on the moon and leave the forums to at least the vaguely semi-sane.

 

[Deus Irae]

And this goes to my point that kraft should take some power away from bill and bring in a new team.

bill is way too proud to let someone else come in.

Hope this helps

 

[Danger Zone]

Decade in the making: the ultimate NFL draft grades

What I take away from the above article is that people's draft expectations are too high. They are fairly concentrating on the draft misses and busts and falling into the trap-filled cliche that every other good team has greener trade grass than our own.

Every team in the NFL is missing on their picks at a similiar or worse rate than we are.

Drafting elite NFL players is extremely difficult even by the very best talent evaluaters. It is certainly is a lot harder than our Playstations and hindsight makes it seem.

Ive made this statement a couple of times now and I think its a valid observation... There is a real, tangible effect to the Patriots consistent, high level of success. Year after year our draft picks are all but downgraded to almost the bottom of every round. We're picking lower, over all, than any other team.

 

[Deus Irae]

Decade in the making: the ultimate NFL draft grades

What I take away from the above article is that people's draft expectations are too high. They are fairly concentrating on the draft misses and busts and falling into the trap-filled cliche that every other good team has greener trade grass than our own.

Every team in the NFL is missing on their picks at a similiar or worse rate than we are.

Drafting elite NFL players is extremely difficult even by the very best talent evaluaters. It is certainly is a lot harder than our Playstations and hindsight makes it seem.

Ive made this statement a couple of times now and I think its a valid observation... There is a real, tangible effect to the Patriots consistent, high level of success. Year after year our draft picks are all but downgraded to almost the bottom of every round. We're picking lower, over all, than any other team.

People have posted that article before. The problem with it is that it uses the first half of the decade to defend the second half of the decade ("half" being just an approximate). The article isn't as much an example of how people are misreading the draft as it is an example of how CHFF has declined in quality over the years.

 

[Danger Zone]

People have posted that article before. The problem with it is that it uses the first half of the decade to defend the second half of the decade ("half" being just an approximate). The article isn't as much an example of how people are misreading the draft as it is an example of how CHFF has declined in quality over the years.

Phaw, CHFF would never extrapolate data in the manner in which you suggest.

Predicting the Second Half of a NFL Season Using the First Half


(Im not acquiescing the point that the CHFF article is inherently flawed)