Where Should Hernandez Fit In?

[Joker]

Yup. Fit him in anywhere and everywhere you can.

this sounds suspiciously like the madam at the Chicken Ranch out in Nevada...

 

[mgteich]

I have no problem with your numbers. I certainly hope that Branch/Edelman are limited to 25% of the offensive reps. My only nitpick is that I think that 30% for Fells is a bit high.

This board will go bonkers if Welker is on the field only 75% of the time. As was discussed when Hernandez was injured, Welker's reps are reduced with Hernandez taking many of his reps in the slot. Your answer is about 25% of those reps. You seem to know of a plan to reduce Welker's reps to save him for later in the season. I'm not sure that Welker needs this treatment anymore than Lloyd or Hernandez. Given Gronk's blocking, he needs to be on the field 100% of the time, as befits offensive linemen.

I did not state what I wanted to do. I stated that I would expect us to run the 3 WR set 40% of the time a reduction of the 60% last week. The open question is how many WR reps Hernandez will get.

Since you have Fells taking about 1/2 of the 2 TE reps, Hernandez would be in at WR a considerable number of times. Perhaps you believe that we will run the 3 WR set less than 40% of the time.

Our base offense is 2TE 2WR.
You seem to want to sit Hernandez on 60% of the plays in order to play Branch??? Why would you do that? What possibly leads you to think that the coaching staff views Hernandez as worse than Branch?

100% is not a good goal. We have enough depth to not burn out these guys. That is what happened with Welker that everyone went crazy misunderstanding. Gronk and Lloyd are durable and will get close to 100%. Hernandez should be close to 100%, when fully healthy, but also has shown some fragility so keeping him in the 80% range with Fells filling in makes sense.
Welker is the 2nd most important player in this offense. That doesn't mean he should play 100% of the snaps. I think 75%-80% is about right. That keeps him fresh, that reduces the chance of injury. He makes us a better offense by being on the field, but a MUCH better offense by being fresh and on the field when most needed.
We went into the year with a plan to reduce his workload to preserve him. The injuries haven't allowed that to continue, but as players get healthy it can happen again. His production will not even be affected.

Expect
Gronk 100
Lloyd 90
Welker 75
Hernandez 80 (probably less right now until he is fully healthy)
Fells 30
Branch/Edelman 25

something along those lines.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Why are we asking where should hernandez fit in? he fits in where he always has since he has been here...


This isn't like a new FA signing

 

[stcjones]

He will "Fit in" exactly where BB wants him to "Fit in." Would expect he will be in there sparingly this week....no use jeapordizing his future health by putting him in the backfield or overutilizing the guy. BB knows best and will utilize him accordingly

Obviously our base backfield is Gronkowksi, Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd and Ridley. I would think that we would run this 60% of the time.

Where should Hernandez fit in beyond the 2 TE set, if at all? As i said above, I would expect the 2nd TE reps to go up to 60% and the 3rd WR down to 40%.

Q1) Would you expect the running game to be as effective with hernandez as a blocker instead of Fells?

Q2) If Hernandez is to be on the field on more than 60% of the reps, whose reps should go down? I would think that we need to run a 3 WR set at least 40% of the time, perhaps not.

Gronk 100%
Welker 100%
Lloyd 100%
3rd WR 60%
2nd TE 40% (includes straight running plays where both TE's are blockers)

i'll ignore the very few 3 TE formations and also note that the RB is often a receiver.

 

[supafly]

Our base offense is 2TE 2WR.
You seem to want to sit Hernandez on 60% of the plays in order to play Branch??? Why would you do that? What possibly leads you to think that the coaching staff views Hernandez as worse than Branch?

100% is not a good goal. We have enough depth to not burn out these guys. That is what happened with Welker that everyone went crazy misunderstanding. Gronk and Lloyd are durable and will get close to 100%. Hernandez should be close to 100%, when fully healthy, but also has shown some fragility so keeping him in the 80% range with Fells filling in makes sense.
Welker is the 2nd most important player in this offense. That doesn't mean he should play 100% of the snaps. I think 75%-80% is about right. That keeps him fresh, that reduces the chance of injury. He makes us a better offense by being on the field, but a MUCH better offense by being fresh and on the field when most needed.
We went into the year with a plan to reduce his workload to preserve him. The injuries haven't allowed that to continue, but as players get healthy it can happen again. His production will not even be affected.

Expect
Gronk 100
Lloyd 90
Welker 75
Hernandez 80 (probably less right now until he is fully healthy)
Fells 30
Branch/Edelman 25

something along those lines.

I couldn't agree more with the thought that the game plan was/is to keep Welker fresher, limit his hits and injuries, and utilize some of the other aspects more (such as Edelman at times, the run game, Llyod, the TE's of course) to help the offense become more balanced.

I also think that something around 75-80% is perfect for Welker's snap count in most games.

Strangely enough, his average snap count percentage in the first 2 games was 71%, when everyone was having a *****fit about him "being limited" and held back by Belichick and McDaniels.

 

[supafly]

Why are we asking where should hernandez fit in? he fits in where he always has since he has been here...


This isn't like a new FA signing

I sort of wondered the same exact thing.

 

[Reckedtrek]

Gronk has had health issues (hip) the last 2 weeks or so. You guys think they'll still play him 100% of the snaps?

 

[supafly]

Gronk has had health issues (hip) the last 2 weeks or so. You guys think they'll still play him 100% of the snaps?

That's a good point. I suppose it will obviously depend on the severity of that injury, whether or not it has progressed or not, etc.

That's why Billy B. gets paid the big bucks, right?

 

[Joker]

...I couldn't possibly fit him in until Monday at the earliest...it's just utter chaos down here at the moment....

 

[Fencer]

One of the big points of the Pats' offense is that a 2 TE set can become a 3 WR set just by moving Hernandez around, meaning that the defense can't both defend a 2 TE set and a 3 WR set with their preferred personnel in the respective scenarios.

 

[Ring 6]

I have no problem with your numbers. I certainly hope that Branch/Edelman are limited to 25% of the offensive reps. My only nitpick is that I think that 30% for Fells is a bit high.

This board will go bonkers if Welker is on the field only 75% of the time. As was discussed when Hernandez was injured, Welker's reps are reduced with Hernandez taking many of his reps in the slot. Your answer is about 25% of those reps. You seem to know of a plan to reduce Welker's reps to save him for later in the season. I'm not sure that Welker needs this treatment anymore than Lloyd or Hernandez. Given Gronk's blocking, he needs to be on the field 100% of the time, as befits offensive linemen.

I did not state what I wanted to do. I stated that I would expect us to run the 3 WR set 40% of the time a reduction of the 60% last week. The open question is how many WR reps Hernandez will get.

Since you have Fells taking about 1/2 of the 2 TE reps, Hernandez would be in at WR a considerable number of times. Perhaps you believe that we will run the 3 WR set less than 40% of the time.

We will run 3 WRs WAY WAY WAY less than 40% of the time.

 

[NordicVoyager]

I think there is a more interesting question that how often will 3 WR be used. That is what percentage of the plays will the Pats use 3 TE? I could see as many as 25 plays together for Gronk, Fells and Hernandez with half being runs and the other half passes. My guess is that Hernandez gets 6-8 targeted passes.

 

[supafly]

I think there is a more interesting question that how often will 3 WR be used. That is what percentage of the plays will the Pats use 3 TE? I could see as many as 25 plays together for Gronk, Fells and Hernandez with half being runs and the other half passes. My guess is that Hernandez gets 6-8 targeted passes.

It's nice to see Belichick's vision of having 3 competant TE's at the same time come true so far, as it has helped with a much more physical approach, and obviously in the running game too. Not only that, but it made a whole lot of people forget about the name (whispers "Brian Waters") as it improved the effectiveness of the line which protects Tom Brady.

Last season, everyone was amazed at the use of the multiple TE sets, but apparently Belichick wanted to take it even one step further with the 3 TE idea and its usage in many more games. In last year's 2011 SB appearance season, we only had 3 TE's active in the same game 5/19 times, or roughly one-quarter of the total games.

This year things seem to be a lot different. I wonder if he didn't take the more physical defensive schedule such as BAL, ARZ, SF, STL, SEA, and HOU into account too? Thus proving that all of the "easy schedule" talk was nothing more than noise to ignore...

 

[UK_Pat37]

Hernandez hasn't finished a practice all week.

We could be debating whether or not he suits up as much as how he factors in to this game. My betting is that, if he does play, he'll be monitored very closely and will probably be on a snap count.

When he does return, just look at previous trends as to how they will use them

The 3WR sets will rarely be touched and a fully healthy Gronk and Hernandez will see the field at least 90% of the time together, so you can bet safely on 3WR Sets getting no more than about 10% usage. We already know this, so why is the question being asked?

 

[convertedpatsfan]

One of the big points of the Pats' offense is that a 2 TE set can become a 3 WR set just by moving Hernandez around, meaning that the defense can't both defend a 2 TE set and a 3 WR set with their preferred personnel in the respective scenarios.

This.

The flexibility of the personnel lets us move into all sorts of different formations.

Consider in week 1 when Hernandez was healthy, we ran every single snap with 2 TEs on the field. The 3 WR package was only run on 7 of 67 snaps, and all 7 of those snaps included 2 TEs.

Hernandez should play as much as possible, and is a much better option than any 3rd WR we currently have.

 

[Jimke]

The Patriots will use Hernandez's bulk (245 lbs.) to counter
Seattle's big defensive backs.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Kong is not "half Tight End/Half O Line."

The ultimate Tight End is already "Half O Line."

And ~ for those of you scoring at home ~ Kong is The Ultimate Tight End.

I'm not quite sure what you mean here, but all I'm trying to say is this: The only reason that GRONK is able to stay on the field for nearly every down is that he's not running downfield on every single play.

 

[Deus Irae]

I know not many people wanna hear this but I think AH might take time off Welker during running situations to block those big corners. 2TE 2WR with Fells/Gronk and Lloyd/AH.

The running game is putting up 200 plus yards with Welker in there. I'd say that the whole "better blocker" thing has been about as thoroughly debunked as possible.

 

[Deus Irae]

Obviously our base backfield is Gronkowksi, Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd and Ridley. I would think that we would run this 60% of the time.

Where should Hernandez fit in beyond the 2 TE set, if at all? As i said above, I would expect the 2nd TE reps to go up to 60% and the 3rd WR down to 40%.

Q1) Would you expect the running game to be as effective with hernandez as a blocker instead of Fells?

Q2) If Hernandez is to be on the field on more than 60% of the reps, whose reps should go down? I would think that we need to run a 3 WR set at least 40% of the time, perhaps not.

Gronk 100%
Welker 100%
Lloyd 100%
3rd WR 60%
2nd TE 40% (includes straight running plays where both TE's are blockers)

i'll ignore the very few 3 TE formations and also note that the RB is often a receiver.

You and I were discussing this in another thread. I think I suggested something along the lines of

90% Gronk
90% Lloyd
90% Welker
90% Hernandez
That would leave about 40% of the snaps for Edelman/Branch and the TEs to split, plus any time that might come from a personnel package without a true RB.

That still works for me, and you can fudge some of that 5%+/-.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Should i start hernandez in my fantasy league? His role will be limited..but is he better than scott chandler of buffalo?