The problem I see is this--(and I am not taking DEN lightly at all as a fan):
New England was caught off guard a bit in the first matchup, not to mention the fact that they don't normally do very well (at all) in Mile High stadium, or even vs the Broncos alone in the past.
On top of that, they were missing Branch, Chung, Vollmer and Spikes. Those are 4 pretty important players who can make a big difference.
Since it's their 2nd meeting, I believe they may be a bit more prepared this time around, and they are certainly more healthy. Then there's the much better play in Gillette stadium too. They just barely blew a very huge streak of consecutive wins at home to the NYG on a last min drive (although it was regular season of course, but the fact remains the same, they are much better at home).
There's also the fact that no .500 team has ever made it further than the divisional round in the history of the NFL--ever.
Then there's the unlikelihood that NE would lose 3 straight home playoff games after not losing one for what? 30 yrs?
There's also the fact that DEN in 3-8 all time on the road in the playoffs.
If you want to delve even deeper, there's also the fact that once NE beat you, DEN went into a huge tailspin only to be rescued by the ineptness of the Pittsburgh Steelers putting 9 guys in the box and leaving NO SAFETY help for a CB who has been known to get smoked a lot.
To that point, PIT had held DEN to 3 points in the second half once they adjusted.
I think it may have been the ridiculous coverage schemes of the Steelers, who were willing to gamble that Tebow wouldn't hit a 15 yd out route. Once that happened, Thomas was gone, as he made good use of his stiff arm and speed on pathetic Ike Taylor.
When you consider that was THE only good thing that happened to them in the last month, I am not sure why everyone's so worried that Tebow is going to pick apart a NE defense on the road, especially since we'll be playing much better schemes than PIT did.
I think the game may be very close in the 1st half, but after the adjustments are made at halftime, there really should not be much threat to winning by at least 10 points.
Next Sunday vs BAL may be a totally different story altogether, as I'm not quite convinced that the 2011 Pats team can win that game to go to the SB, let alone beat one of the tough NFC teams. Then again, I do feel that they have just as good a chance as anyone else, and they would be favored to beat Baltimore at home too.
