I'm just repeating what Mike and Mike reported this morning. If 5 of 8 teams are eliminated, the remaining 3 teams (until they play each other) have a 33% chance of taking home the Lombardi.
I think you're just upset with the realization that for NE to win the Super Bowl, it would require abandoning one of the pillars or keystones in NFL History: Defense Wins Championships.
Everyone knows that Brady is VERY good. But you're defense is, let's be honest, REALLY bad. For the "dream matchup" that everyone wants, NE vs. Green Bay, you'd have to have not ONE but TWO of the worst defenses in the 2011 campaign making it to the Big Dance.
That ain't gonna happen.
You may very well be right, in the sense that not BOTH Super Bowl teams are going to be offensive powerhouses. That much is very realistic.
But...with a #1 seed, another #1 seed, and a #3 seed having the top 3 offenses, I would venture that at least one team certainly gets there.
As far as the "defense wins championships" goes, we'd have to refer to the 2006 Colts and the 2009 Saints to prove that wrong immediately. While I'd agree that holds true with much more consistency that offense winning SB's, I think that it is not always going to come out that way.
Sometimes the best defense is a very strong offense, sometimes (as in SF's case) it's the other way around. SF relies on their defense to help provide and help their offense, although they certainly aren't exactly 'balanced' either.
Then again, who is balanced? The NYG may be the most 'balanced' team as of this minute, and they will have to get through 2 very tough games on the road to get there--so their odds are down.
I understand your thinking that NE has a defensive hole, and while that's true,
keep in mind they are giving up about 18-19 pts a game at home. That's much better than their overall 23 a game, and it seems like some halfway decent defense to me.
On top of that, why are you not including your own team? Where is their uber-balance coming from? They are not exactly setting the world on fire on either side of the ball, are they? I could've sworn in 3 out of their last 4 games they didn't score that much...and their defense isn't exactly the stuff that's going to rival the '85 Bears, is it?
I suppose that we'll just have to wait to find out, but I am pretty sure that at least one team out of the 3 get there, with the obvious NFC foes having a better shot since there are 2 teams (NO and GB).
But I also think that this yr is not the best yr to judge how "defense is winning football games..." although I am sure that there will be an exception to the rule in the case of the winner of HOU/BAL, and even possibly the NYG or SF. That does not however, guarantee any of those teams to even go to the SB, let alone win it.
And one more thing...if you'd want to go by the "Mike and Mike" reasoning (God help us all---sigh) then all of DEN, HOU, and BAL somehow have a 33% chance of winning the SB (even though it would be higher since 2 of the teams play each other)...
yet they wouldn't have anyone to play against...seeing as how they are ALL in the AFC