NFL Division Round: Packers at Falcons

[jmt57]

The weekend is almost here and I can't take much more discussion about what some Jet just said. The real NFL news over the next 45 hours will be the first three games of this weekend, so I'm going to go ahead and start threads on each of those games now.

#6 Green Bay Packers (11-6) at #1 Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
Saturday January 15 at 8:00 p.m. EST on FOX
Joe Buck and Troy Aikman will announce the game on TV
Pam Oliver and Chris Myers are the sideline reporters
Ian Eagle, Tony Boselli and Scott Kaplan will do the radio broadcast

Atlanta is currently favored by 2 to 2½
Over under is from 43½ to 44 points
The Money Line has Green Bay from +108 to +120; Atlanta -128 to -140

 

[jmt57]

NFL Playoffs @ The Dome: Falcons-Packers Rematch | Atlanta Falcons: Bird Cage | Atlanta Journal-Constitution

1) How Will the Falcons Come Out?
The theory of course goes that the team that has the bye will be much better prepared and rested as they get ready to host the playoff game. That should be true, but another argument is that a wild-card team may be playing better since they’ve been playing for their playoff lives for quite some time now.

2) Will the Defensive Gameplan Be the Same?
Since the Green Bay Packers are all of a sudden “balanced” on offense after one game of running the football well, will the defensive gameplan be the same as it was last time? The Falcons did a superb job of keeping Aaron Rodgers to a minimum by often rushing only 3 to 4 lineman and dropping 7 to 8 defensive backs into coverage. It will be interesting to see since the Packers may have found an answer in the running game with James Starks, a 6th round drafted rookie from Buffalo, who ran for 123 yards against the Eagles.

3) What Will the Offense Look Like?
The Atlanta Falcons are one of the most balanced football teams in the NFL, and they have actually done it more than one game, but they have been having a little more trouble running the ball the last two games.

4) Have the Falcons Kicked the Turnover Bug?
The last three games saw the turnover total take a spike with an interception in Seattle, two fumbles against the Saints, and another red-zone fumble against the Panthers.

5) Can Falcons Fans “Rise Up?”
Since this is the biggest home game in the Falcons history in the Georgia Dome, can fans do their part to make the Dome a terrible place to play?

6) Least Acknowledged #1 Seed……..Ever?
We all know exactly how this game will be framed (and already is so) by the talking-ditto-media “experts.” Listening to pretty much all the media experts and ditto heads, its as if they don’t even want to acknowledge that the Falcons are even in the playoffs and certainly that they’re not the #1 seed and a good team. Over in the AFC, its the Patriots title to lose with them being the #1 seed and you wouldn’t even know that the Falcons are actually in the playoffs. The Bird Cage has beat the “no respect” thing like a dead horse, and until the ultimate goal is reached, than it should continue to be used for motivation. Even though the Falcons actually beat the Packers on the field of play back in November and held the greatest offense ever to 17 points, the ditto heads are framing it as what the Packers didn’t do as opposed to what the Falcons did do. Only one way to keep proving them wrong.

 

[Kontradiction]

Even though Atlanta is nearly unbeatable at home, I have Green Bay taking this one 24-21 and advancing to the NFC Championship game. Really, I don't see a team in the NFC that can compete with them, especially when their running game is going the way it was going last week.

 

[BigEZPatsFan76]

Even though Atlanta is nearly unbeatable at home, I have Green Bay taking this one 24-21 and advancing to the NFC Championship game. Really, I don't see a team in the NFC that can compete with them, especially when their running game is going the way it was going last week.

I agree my money would be on the Pack, as well for the NFC. I think all 6 of their losses were by 7 points or less. Correct me if I am wrong (too lazy to go look it up right now).


EZ76

 

[pherein]

If we can beat them at home the Pack can. They are not a better team. They are not even better than us.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I think this game features the next great quarterback rivalry when all is said and done between Manning and Brady and I expect at least 2 or 3 super bowls to be won between these two very talented and good looking young QBs in the near future..hopefully not this year

I really think Aaron has done great things with a very injury plagued roster but I see Atlanta just being too damn tough at home and well rested at that.

I think the Pack will not have any answers for a hungry Tony Gonzalez who is about as close to getting to a Super Bowl as he has ever Been before...this will be a monster game for Gonzalez and Roddy White and let's not forget Turner.

 

[pherein]

I think this game features the next great quarterback rivalry when all is said and done between Manning and Brady and I expect at least 2 or 3 super bowls to be won between these two very talented and good looking young QBs in the near future..hopefully not this year

I really think Aaron has done great things with a very injury plagued roster but I see Atlanta just being too damn tough at home and well rested at that.

I think the Pack will not have any answers for a hungry Tony Gonzalez who is about as close to getting to a Super Bowl as he has ever Been before...this will be a monster game for Gonzalez and Roddy White and let's not forget Turner.

This is the reason we beat the falcons. 9-2 sense Brees/payton 4-1 at thier home. They believe in big players, like most teams. They only have white,turner, and gonz. You shut those down they lose. Thats what we did vs them at home last time, and with all due respect thats what we did vs you last year.

Your offense was Moss,Faulk, and Welker. We stopped that, and it worked.
Patriots offense has morphed into a saints system. Still trying to figure out how that happened, but your now a " you cant cover everyone offense", like ours.
No big names just good players, and a lot of targets for brady.

The packs defense is better than ours, thats not saying much from the last game, but they are. Its not going to be hard for them to cover gonz and white, like we did.
And they can contain turner better than we did, they have a better front 4.

So what will ryan do? He choked vs us, and you know the pack is studying our tape. Believe me the falcons have no answer for this, look at their Pitt game also, their conventional. Rogers dosnt care who he's throwing to, ryan needs rhythm and WR he knows.

If the Pack can hold them like we did, but break the line , falcons are done. We hardly broke there OL. Its an interesting match up.

 

[Haterproof]

If we can beat them at home the Pack can. They are not a better team. They are not even better than us.

You're right. I still think Atlanta will prevail some way in the end though. This will be 1 hellva game. Brees,Rodgers & Ryan are the top 3 QB's in the NFC IMO.

 

[Froob]

Man falcons are the #1 seed but it seems like they are the underdog. Everyone is picking the packers. I'll take matty ice leading the team down the field for a game winning touchdown to roddy white. Falcons 23-20.

 

[jmt57]

Innovation, adaptation, attention: Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers continues to impress friends, colleagues | Green Bay Press-Gazette

“He’s done an outstanding job,” Mora said from his home in Palm Desert, Calif. “I think about it all the time as I watch these guys play. With all the injuries, he’s done a superb job. I don’t know if any defensive coordinator in the National Football League has done any better job than Dom has under the circumstances.”

What has most impressed Mora has been Capers’ ability to adapt to his ever-changing personnel.

“When I watch him, I’m impressed by the things he comes up with,” Mora said. “It’s not like your standard stuff, and I see other people kind of copying him. With all the linemen standing up — sometimes two linemen, one lineman — I see other teams doing that stuff now. You can tell he’s well respected, there’s no question.”

“You know what it is, he’s a real attention-to-detail guy,” said Steve Sidwell, who was the defensive coordinator under Mora with the Saints. “He’s able to do enough of the changing from X’s and O’s that he can give people problems.”

“He’s been doing it so long, very detailed, knows exactly what he’s looking for, and I think that’s truly the mark of an excellent coach,” McCarthy said Friday. “You have the vision and staying true to that vision and make sure you do not get off the path to accomplish what you want. I just think the success we’ve had in the two years is a big credit to Dom.”

 

[jmt57]

Green Bay Packers' James Starks shows long-term potential at running back | Green Bay Press-Gazette

Six weeks ago, it looked like running back rated among the Green Bay Packers’ top two or three priorities for the 2011 NFL draft.

Not now.

We haven’t seen a lot of rookie James Starks, but we’ve seen enough to reasonably conclude he’s a real NFL running back. Samkon Gado he’s not.

Starks’ performance in a small sample of playing time doesn’t eliminate the need at running back in the draft, but it definitely reduces it. Because of the short shelf life and value of quality depth at that brutalized position, the Packers still should take a shot in the draft if possible. They still don’t know if Starks is pretty good, or something more.

But based on his 52 carries over the past five games, there’s reason to think Starks might even be a little better than Ryan Grant, whose season-ending torn ankle ligaments in Week 1 diminished the Packers’ run game this season.

“Impressive,” was what one pro scout for an NFC team said after Starks’ 123-yard game last week against Philadelphia. “Good size with good straight-line speed on the second level. I’ve never been a big Grant guy.”

 

[jmt57]

Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons: 3 keys to the game | Green Bay Press-Gazette

1. Focus On Turner

NFL defenses start their game-planning each week with the basic question, “What one thing do we most need to stop to win this game?” With Atlanta, that’s not easy, because halfback Michael Turner and quarterback Matt Ryan both can beat you. But for the Packers, it has to start with Turner. He pounded them for 110 yards and a 4.8-yard average in the Falcons’ 20-17 win in November. If he rolls, the Falcons control the clock and shorten the game, to their distinct advantage. So defensive coordinator Dom Capers probably will have to play more base defense than he prefers against personnel groupings that could be either base or nickel calls. He’ll also have to put the onus on his secondary in coverage, which is a strength, and bring up a safety to help stop Turner. Will that strength hold up?

2. Will Packers Commit To Run Game?

One of the big questions this week is whether coach Mike McCarthy will stick with the run if it isn’t working well early. Last time the teams played he didn’t, and understandably so. The Falcons have average talent in the secondary with cornerbacks Dunta Robinson, Brent Grimes and Brian Williams, and safeties William Moore and Thomas DeCoud. They make up for some of the talent gap with toughness and smarts, but the Packers still have a matchup edge with their deep receiving corps (Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones and Jordy Nelson). The Packers put up big yards (418 total) in that first meeting but were done in, in part, by Aaron Rodgers’ lost fumble on a goal-line quarterback sneak. Coming off James Starks’ 123-yard rushing game last week against Philadelphia, will McCarthy change tactics and stick with the run this time even if it starts slow? That open up the big play. But it also might bog down the offense.

3. Keeping White In Check

Atlanta’s Roddy White is among the game’s elite receivers (115 catches, 12.1-yard average, 10 touchdowns). He’s not a blazer, but he’s a big man (6-0, 212) who’s just plain good. Capers wants to play cornerback Charles Woodson in the slot as much as possible, so he’s more in the middle of the field and can be a threat to blitz or cover, and maybe occasionally match up with tight end Tony Gonzalez. Tramon Williams is the Packers’ best pure cover man, so the job of handling White might fall on him more often than not. If that’s how it goes, can he minimize White’s damage for the full 60 minutes?

 

[jmt57]

Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons: How Press-Gazette writers are picking it | Green Bay Press-Gazette

Three out of four Green Bay sports writers take the Packers in tonight's game.

Pete Dougherty (12-5)
Falcons 24, Packers 21
The Packers have the talent edge (especially on defense), but Atlanta has had a week off and is one of the few teams that can match the Packers at quarterback. The Falcons also can shorten the game running the ball, and Matt Ryan is 20-2 as a starter at the Georgia Dome. That might be just enough to get Atlanta over the top.


Rob Demovsky (11-6)
Packers 30, Falcons 24
This game is as much of a toss-up as last week’s wild-card contest at Philadelphia. The Falcons earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC because they played sound, fundamental football for most of the season. But they’re not as dynamic or explosive as some top seeds of the past. If the Packers have anything on their side, it’s momentum. As well as they’ve played, that could be enough.


Kareem Copeland (9-8)
Packers 23, Falcons 17
There’s absolutely no way the Packers’ defense is going to play as poorly as it did in the regular-season matchup, and even then it only gave up 20 points. The Falcons won’t reach that mark this week now that Clay Matthews and company are actually tackling ballcarriers. Expect a win if the offensive line creates running lanes and gives Aaron Rodgers time to do his thing.


Mike Vandermause (8-9)
Packers 23, Falcons 20
The Packers have a better quarterback and defense to offset the Falcons’ home-field advantage. The Packers have momentum on their side and are brimming with more confidence than your typical No. 6 playoff seed. They will win if they can minimize their turnovers and avoid committing special teams mistakes.

 

[jmt57]

Playoff six pack: Honest Abe not impressed with Starks | Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Falcons defensive John Abraham has seen his share of good running backs.

He played with Curtis Martin, one of the finalist for this year’s Pro Football Hall of Fame class, with the New York Jets.

He played two seasons with Warrick Dunn and has played with Michael Turner.

So excuse Abraham is he’s not real excited about Green Bay running back James Starks, who ran for 123 yards last week.

“I can’t hype anybody off one game,” Abraham said. “You’ve got to show me more.”

Packers-Falcons ‘what if's' | Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Things will go well (for Atlanta) if ...

1. The Falcons take their lunch money. The offensive line has to bully the Packers' defensive front to make some holes for Michael Turner and Jason Snelling to run. Turner rushed for 110 yards on 23 carries in the Falcons' 20-17 victory Nov. 28. Right guard Harvey Dahl did a good job of jumping all over Green Bay inside linebacker A.J. Hawk.

2. Roddy gets free. Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers put Roddy White in wide-receiver jail in the last game. He mixed up coverages and minimized White's impact. Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams and safety Nick Collins all had a role in keeping White under control, and he caught only five passes for 49 yards. Falcons offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey must devise formations and motions to get White some favorable matchups.

3. The Falcons stop Starks. The Falcons held the Packers to 77 yards rushing Nov. 28. They stuffed running backs Brandon Jackson and Dimitri Nance and forced Rodgers to scramble 12 times for 51 yards. Green Bay's James Starks, who rushed for 123 yards Sunday against Philadelphia, didn't play.

4. They tackle the receivers. The Packers throw a lot of quick passes out of their modified West Coast offense and expect their receivers to get yards after the catch. If the Falcons blitz, they will force quick throws, but the defensive backs must come up and tackle, especially on slant routes.

5. Weems gets loose. Special-teams star Eric Weems has turned into a force in the return game. He knows how to use his blockers and has enough speed to go the distance. He has returned a punt and a kickoff for touchdowns this season, but more important, he will be key in helping to establish good field position for the offense.


Things will look bleak (for Atlanta) if ...

1. Dr. Rodgers makes a house call. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers cut up the Falcons' secondary like a surgeon Nov. 28 as he passed for 344 yards and ran for 51. The Packers had two drives stall inside the 4-yard line. He rallied them with a late fourth-quarter drive, in which he made two fourth-down conversions. The secondary and the pass rush will be on the spot.

2. Clay Matthews achieves atonement. Falcons right tackle Tyson Clabo manhandled Matthews in the first meeting. Clabo held the much-hyped Matthews, who had 13.5 sacks and is headed to the Pro Bowl, sackless. Right guard Harvey Dahl must be ready for when the Packers try to loop or twist Matthews inside for a sack.

3. Starks is not a fluke. James Starks played at Buffalo, where he became the school's all-time leading rusher. However, he didn't play in 2009 because of a shoulder injury and slipped into the sixth round of the draft. He was a quarterback in high school. Starks missed the majority of this season with a hamstring injury and was brought along slowly by Packers running backs coach Edgar Bennett. If he's the real deal, the Packers' offense will be much more difficult to stop.

4. The Packers rip off long gainers. What do Brett Swain, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Andrew Quarless have in common? They all had a gain of at least 19 yards against the Falcons on Nov. 28. Swain broke loose for a 46-yard gain. Jennings, a Pro Bowler, had gains of 35, 34 and 30 yards as he caught five passes for 119 yards. Falcons nickel back Christopher Owens likely will get the call since Brian Williams didn't practice all week with a knee injury. The Falcons may be forced to play zone.

5. B.J. Raji says hello to his old classmate. Green Bay nose tackle B.J. Raji played at Boston College, and his career overlapped with Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. Center Todd McClure did a good job of keeping Raji under control in the previous matchup. Raji can be a destructive force in the middle of Green Bay's 3-4 defense.

 

[jmt57]

Key Matchup: Packers' pass offense vs. Falcons' pass defense | Atlanta Journal-Constitution

About the Packers' pass offense: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers thrives on making quick reads and throwing the ball accurately, both critical to the Packers' modified West Coast offense. Two of his 14 career 300-yard passing games have come against Falcons defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder's defense. He passed for 313 yards against the Falcons on Oct. 5, 2008, and for 344 yards on Nov. 28 this season. Atlanta won both games. Rodgers has an extremely talented and deep receiving corps, led by Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Jordy Nelson is a solid No. 3 receiver and James Jones can get open deep.

About the Falcons' pass defense: The young secondary improved steadily over the course of the season. Left cornerback Brent Grimes, has come on strong and strong safety William Moore, a first-year starter, is getting more comfortable. The opportunistic unit finished 22nd against the pass (222.6 yards per game), but was fourth in league with 22 interceptions. The Falcons have intercepted at least one pass in 13 games this season and recorded multiple interceptions eight times. Right cornerback Dunta Robinson helps set the tone with his physical play. If nickel back Brian Williams (knee) is not able to play, his physical presence will be missed. Christopher Owens, who struggled in man-to-man coverage at times and is not as savvy a blitzer as Williams, is next in line at nickel back.

Analysis by Falcons defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder: “[Rodgers] is excellent. [He's a] very intelligent quarterback. Now he’s very athletic in terms of being able to run the ball. He looks to run the ball up the field a little different than Drew [Brees]. Aaron will take off and run on you. As a matter of fact, in the game with us, he really hurt us. I believe he was their leading rusher [51 yards in 12 attempts]. Good athlete and a great arm.”

 

[Deus Irae]

Here's hoping for a good game.

 

[ausbacker]

Well game 1 went the way most of us wanted it too. Now for Atlanta to knock out the Packers.

 

[batbl18]

Seems to me as if Atlanta is the underdog based on everyones picks. I think they've flown under the radar this season and have a solid team which doesn't beat themselves with mistakes. If the Falcons were to win the NFC I would be very afraid to potentially match up against them in a Super Bowl.

Even with the way the Packers played against us I feel Bill would prepare a better gameplan and has more film against Aaron Rodgers if we had to face them again.

With that being said I think the Packers will win a close game 31 - 27

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

LOL @ pam olivers head...soo ugly


oh and who gives a crap about the NFC lol

 

[BradyMossWelker]

Atlanta will crush Green Bay, book it.
Have people forgot how good Atlanta was in the season, just because they lost a close game to the saints?