1. Focus On Turner
NFL defenses start their game-planning each week with the basic question, “What one thing do we most need to stop to win this game?” With Atlanta, that’s not easy, because halfback Michael Turner and quarterback Matt Ryan both can beat you. But for the Packers, it has to start with Turner. He pounded them for 110 yards and a 4.8-yard average in the Falcons’ 20-17 win in November. If he rolls, the Falcons control the clock and shorten the game, to their distinct advantage. So defensive coordinator Dom Capers probably will have to play more base defense than he prefers against personnel groupings that could be either base or nickel calls. He’ll also have to put the onus on his secondary in coverage, which is a strength, and bring up a safety to help stop Turner. Will that strength hold up?
2. Will Packers Commit To Run Game?
One of the big questions this week is whether coach Mike McCarthy will stick with the run if it isn’t working well early. Last time the teams played he didn’t, and understandably so. The Falcons have average talent in the secondary with cornerbacks Dunta Robinson, Brent Grimes and Brian Williams, and safeties William Moore and Thomas DeCoud. They make up for some of the talent gap with toughness and smarts, but the Packers still have a matchup edge with their deep receiving corps (Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones and Jordy Nelson). The Packers put up big yards (418 total) in that first meeting but were done in, in part, by Aaron Rodgers’ lost fumble on a goal-line quarterback sneak. Coming off James Starks’ 123-yard rushing game last week against Philadelphia, will McCarthy change tactics and stick with the run this time even if it starts slow? That open up the big play. But it also might bog down the offense.
3. Keeping White In Check
Atlanta’s Roddy White is among the game’s elite receivers (115 catches, 12.1-yard average, 10 touchdowns). He’s not a blazer, but he’s a big man (6-0, 212) who’s just plain good. Capers wants to play cornerback Charles Woodson in the slot as much as possible, so he’s more in the middle of the field and can be a threat to blitz or cover, and maybe occasionally match up with tight end Tony Gonzalez. Tramon Williams is the Packers’ best pure cover man, so the job of handling White might fall on him more often than not. If that’s how it goes, can he minimize White’s damage for the full 60 minutes?