"Solid" Patriot Defense Is 32nd on 3rd Down

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Missing Bodden has been devastating. The defensive players may be stepping up, but the totals are sobering. No team is playing worse on third down than the patriots. Opposing quartebacks are completing over 70% of their passes on 3rd down (only one team is worse).

Perhaps we can be 5-1 in the next 5 games with such stats, but it seems unlikely.

Do you all see great improvement is our corners in last few games?

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New England Patriots are losing time of possesion battle - ESPN Boston

An excerpt from the espn boston article

"New England's defensive numbers on third and fourth down are quite sobering for optimistic fans.

The Patriots have allowed opponents to convert 48.8 percent of third downs, worst in the NFL and a far cry from the 38.3 percent league average. The Patriots also have the league's second-worst fourth-down defense, but it's the third-and-long numbers that are most alarming. That's where drives that should end are allowing the opposing offense to stay on the field.

On third down with six or more yards to go, opponents have a 42.4 conversion percentage according to STATS LLC, which cites a league average of 26.5 percent. Here again, the Patriots rank last in the NFL. On third and 10 or more, opponents have converted for a first down 40 percent of the time, nearly twice the league average.


Patriots' Opponent Conversion Pct, 2010 Ranks
Pct NFL Rank League Avg
Overall 3rd down 48.8 32nd 38.3
3rd and 6+ yards 42.4 32nd 26.5
3rd and 10+ yards 40.0 31st 21.0
Overall 4th down 83.3 31st 48.0
Source: STATS LLC

Just how bad is the situation on third down? That 48.8 conversion percentage puts the Patriots on track to have the worst third-down defense since the 1995 Cleveland Browns (49.6), according to STATS. The coach of that team? Ironically, none other than Bill Belichick.

As the third-and-long numbers indicate, the Patriots' biggest defensive question marks are against the pass. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 70.1 percent of third-down passes (second highest in NFL) and have a 100.3 passer rating (fourth highest). It's not just he secondary's fault. The Patriots' two sacks on third down are tied for the fewest in the NFL."

In other words, you started a thread about a stat that is completely meaningless.

If this was so critical, why are the Patroits 5-1?

3rd down conversion and yards allowed/gained are birds of a feather

 

[Nikolai]

This team is 5-1 yet the defense has much to work on and a lot of room to improve.. it isn't anywhere near it's potential, at all.

Before the season, I thought the team might be able to get things together by December, and I think they're on their way. It looks like the team might have a nice head start on the playoff and homefield advantage race by that point to boot.

I didn't miss the point. It's a bulk stat and you're undercutting it by weeding out the data.

I'm afraid you still miss the point, but it's really not my concern.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Choose to believe as you choose. Th reality is that IF WE WERE TO CONTINUE AT THIS PACE, we'd have the worst 3rd down performance in 15 years. And perhaps, we could overcome it by having a couple of special teams touchdowns or a couple of high school quality mistakes by the other team.

We could just accept that is OK to have the worst third down defense in the Belichick era OR we could recognize the problem and focus on it with laser focus, knowing that there needs to be major improvement in order to be expected to go to the Super Bowl.

I suggest that Belichick and the staff sees the performance on 3rd down as a major issue for this team.

Or maybe some of us realize you are whining and worrying about an unimportant statistic.

Here's a good stat that I follow

Long (starts out of field goal range) drives that end in a touchdown.

 

[VJCPatriot]

BOTTOM LINES

Third down defense when behind: 9/18, 50%
Third down defense when playing with less than 2 score lead: 14/28, 50%
Third down defense when playing with more than 2 score lead: 16/23, 70%

If one excludes the second half of the Jets game and the fourth quarter of the Chargers game, the defense has allowed 5/14 (36%) third downs to be converted when defending a less than 2 score lead.

There is a definite trend to let up when up by two scores. I might do an analysis of whether or not the drives are longer as a result to determine if this is a strategy by BB to run out the clock, but for now, I'll have to say that the third down defense takes a hit.

Overall, the third down defense needs to improve, but I think we're seeing some growth, especially during the Ravens game.

Maybe the Pats' play calling becomes too conservative in those situations when we're ahead? 70% is an unacceptable rate for ANY defense to give up on 3rd down.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

I looked at this stat league wide.

And basically this thread proves that this is a completely meaningless stat.

Of the three teams that are 5-1, they rank 13, 24, 32 in this stat.

The third best team in this stat has a 1-5 record.

There seems to be almost no correlation between ones ranking in this stat and wins (or maybe even an negative correlation).

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Maybe the Pats' play calling becomes too conservative in those situations when we're ahead? 70% is an unacceptable rate for ANY defense to give up on 3rd down.

obviously, it's not because they are 5-1.

 

[spacecrime]

Choose to believe as you choose. Th reality is that IF WE WERE TO CONTINUE AT THIS PACE, we'd have the worst 3rd down performance in 15 years.

If we continue at this pace we will go 13-3.

I said third down conversions should be looked at and likely was being worked on, as should a LOT of things the Pats do. I never said it was an ideal, just that it wasn't going to change us from a 5-1 team to a losing team simply because we keep on the way we are.

Why is everything misquoted by you? I said was that this is a big hullabaloo over very little, that there are many more, bigger factors determining a W or L than giving up an average of one or one and a half more 3rd down conversions per game than other teams, and that will not turn us into a losing team by itself.

Red zone offense and red zone defense, for example, are more important than a fistful of third dwon conversions between the 20's. Net turnovers. Net punting. Not giving up big plays. How is giving up 6 third down conversions in a long drive that nets a FG because ONE third sown stop was made in the red zone better than allowing an 80-yard single play strike

What you are complaining about is the bend-don't break defense that worked so well in early last decade.

Give up lots of ground between the 20's, allow no big plays, and force FGs not TDs.

We could just accept that is OK to have the worst third down defense in the Belichick era

I think you are making up stats to support your position, which I find lame if true. Give me some numbers. What was the third down conversion rate in 2001, the year the defense allowed 303 first downs, and gave up over 5 yards per play? That year our defense was ranked 26th in yards and 6th in points.

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

I don't give a crap that we are 5-1.

These numbers are not going to be good enough to go deep into the playoffs.

Or are we all about posting lots of wins in the regular season.

By the time we get into the playoffs, the D on other teams are gonna get stingy. If ours does not do the same we are gonna be in trouble. Let's all remember we are in it for championships, not for a record the Colts would be proud of.

Our goal absolutely has to be on improvement. At least we have a benchmark number to start from, 32.

Yes we are 5-1 but come on man....stats are indicators. Yes they are not the be all, end all. As a coaching staff I am sure they are aware. Something needs tweaking and soon. As Brady said you don't just flick the switch and have everything click (maybe he was sending another signal through the media - who knows).

not cool....

 

[SuperPatsFan]

Nine of the last 10 Super Bowl champions had defenses that held their opponents to a third-down conversion percentage under 40 in the regular season.

The tenth had Peyton Manning at quarterback.

 

[patriotscpfc]

I don't mind any of this as long as they continue their Playmaking ways

They're doing alright in the Red Zone compared to the start of the season.

They're now causing turnovers and shutting down Running games.

Give it time, they're improving week on week.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

I don't give a crap that we are 5-1.

These numbers are not going to be good enough to go deep into the playoffs.

Or are we all about posting lots of wins in the regular season.

By the time we get into the playoffs, the D on other teams are gonna get stingy. If ours does not do the same we are gonna be in trouble. Let's all remember we are in it for championships, not for a record the Colts would be proud of.

Our goal absolutely has to be on improvement. At least we have a benchmark number to start from, 32.

Yes we are 5-1 but come on man....stats are indicators. Yes they are not the be all, end all. As a coaching staff I am sure they are aware. Something needs tweaking and soon. As Brady said you don't just flick the switch and have everything click (maybe he was sending another signal through the media - who knows).

not cool....

So what defense is bigger and badder than Baltimore? San Diego is ranked number 1, can you get better?

Yet somehow the team scores 23 points in both games and wins.

Yes stats do indicate something.......just not what you think.

 

[PatsBoy12]

Yet the team is 5-1. That's the only "statistic" that matters to me at this point.

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

This team is winning the superbowl with those numbers...

Well, where do we have to be, 30th, 26th, 20th, 10th?

Who knows? Let's just see how far we go with this ranking in the playoffs.

The trend is, championship teams have quality defenses. I truly believe that.

Time to take off the blinders....

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm afraid you still miss the point, but it's really not my concern.

I didn't miss it the first time, nor during any follow up. You're taking an already small sample (6 games) and trimming it twice. As I said, at that point, you're looking at a sample that's too small to get any real take on, and you have to pretty much go drive-by-drive and case-by-case. With just 23 and 28 attempts to reference, the difference between 14/28 and 16/23 is not enough to demonstrate the trend you're claiming to see. Tossing out the SD and Jets data just shrinks it down even further, and 5/14 is not a large enough sample to be worth a damn. It's basically one to one-plus game's worth of attempts.

 

[unoriginal]

Third downs are of course a great opportunity for the defense to get off the field, but the fact that the Pats are dead last in it doesn't mean they are the worst defense. A lot of defenses can't even get to third down consistently.

I've taken the down stats from ESPN and measured how much of a team's first downs surrendered came on third down. Washington, at the top of the list, has the fourth best third down defense in the league currently, so you might think they are a defense that can get off the field. But four out of every five first downs they allow occur on first and second down, and therefore they lead the league in first downs allowed, at 156.

So at least the base defense is working well.

[B]Team		1 Downs	3rd Down Conv	% First Downs on Third Down[/B]
Washington	156	30		19.23
Houston		142	29		20.42
Dallas		111	23		20.72
Detroit		131	29		22.14
St. Louis	135	32		23.7
Indianapolis	118	28		23.73
Jacksonville	151	36		23.84
Tennessee	139	34		24.46
Chicago		116	29		25
Kansas City	107	28		26.17
Denver		140	37		26.43
Seattle		111	30		27.03
Baltimore	118	32		27.12
Buffalo		129	35		27.13
Oakland		129	35		27.13
Miami		101	28		27.72
Green Bay	140	39		27.86
Pittsburgh	104	29		27.88
Carolina	111	31		27.93
Atlanta		131	37		28.24
NY Giants	102	29		28.43
Cincinnati	115	33		28.7
Philadelphia	132	38		28.79
Tampa Bay	114	34		29.82
Minnesota	103	31		30.1
New Orleans	116	35		30.17
[COLOR="Red"]New England	135	41		30.37[/COLOR]
Arizona		131	40		30.53
San Francisco	124	38		30.65
Cleveland	133	41		30.83
San Diego	101	33		32.67
NY Jets		113	37		32.74

 

[condon84]

The most discouraging part about all this is that our defense has generally put themselves in a good position on third downs. I've seen us in a good amount of 3rd and 5 or longer, yet we can't seem to get off the field.

I've also seen us blitz with no type of success. I think our blitz scheme has got to be the easiest to defend: up the middle and very predictable. If this is such a copycat league, why aren't we copying how the Steelers and Jets blitz?

 

[ausbacker]

I don't give a crap that we are 5-1.

These numbers are not going to be good enough to go deep into the playoffs.

Or are we all about posting lots of wins in the regular season.

By the time we get into the playoffs, the D on other teams are gonna get stingy. If ours does not do the same we are gonna be in trouble. Let's all remember we are in it for championships, not for a record the Colts would be proud of.

Our goal absolutely has to be on improvement. At least we have a benchmark number to start from, 32.

Yes we are 5-1 but come on man....stats are indicators. Yes they are not the be all, end all. As a coaching staff I am sure they are aware. Something needs tweaking and soon. As Brady said you don't just flick the switch and have everything click (maybe he was sending another signal through the media - who knows).

not cool....

You don't care that the team is winning? Right.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

Nine of the last 10 Super Bowl champions had defenses that held their opponents to a third-down conversion percentage under 40 in the regular season.

The tenth had Peyton Manning at quarterback.

Sobering indeed.

Wonder how those who dismiss the 3rd down stat as meaningless will comment about this. Maybe point to the D of the previous 20 SB winners and try to prove that it is not as high as 90%?

 

[Deus Irae]

Nine of the last 10 Super Bowl champions had defenses that held their opponents to a third-down conversion percentage under 40 in the regular season.

The tenth had Peyton Manning at quarterback.

The tenth was also facing a fraud of a team in the Super Bowl, and only got there because of their AFCCG opponent's injuries/illness and some bad officiating.

Context, in this case (Colts victory), makes your position stronger. I'm not breaking down the other nine, though, although we would certainly note the 'quirks' of the Giants and Steelers victories as well.

 

[Triumph]

I looked at this stat league wide.

And basically this thread proves that this is a completely meaningless stat.

Of the three teams that are 5-1, they rank 13, 24, 32 in this stat.

The third best team in this stat has a 1-5 record.

There seems to be almost no correlation between ones ranking in this stat and wins (or maybe even an negative correlation).

Redzone defense is a more important stat.