If you want a safe pick who will produce right away, draft a Center. This team is far enough along in the rebuilding process that some risk can be taken...or was trading Mike Vrabel away because BB is feeling insecure and wants to take the "safe" road? The "safe" road dictates you go out and buy veterans in Free Agency - hello Redskins. The "safe" road said sign a veteran QB last Fall. It's fourth and 1 at mid-field, NE is up by three - do you punt or go for the first down?
I'm not looking for a safe pick. I'm looking for a smart pick. I'm prepared to take a chance on any guy, at the right value spot.
Were Wilfork, Mankins, Meriweather "safe" picks? I would call it "smart", but if that's "safe", then sure I'll take "safe". Knowing those players now, it seems pretty clear that our scouts understood exactly what we were getting when we drafted them. All of them have progressed exactly to plan, into reliable, week-in week-out contributors and solid starters.
If there's a OC in the draft class that can step in and take a starting role on this team, then bring him in. I would take a sure-thing starter at any position with #23, because that's how you build a team for the long run. He better be pretty good, cause the OC he needs to beat is really not that bad. Would that be a "safe" pick, knowing that even if he's a pro-bowler in the making he's likely to spend two seasons riding the pine? I wouldn't call it "safe"-- sounds more like a waste. Unless he doubles as an OG that can win the starting role from Neal, in which case *absolutely*!
My point: if you cant find an OLB that you like, that you feel absolutely confident about-- and by confident I mean the way BB must have felt about Mankins when he sent the card up-- then trade down, trade up, trade out, but don't force the next guy on your draft card into the first round slot just because he's the last best chance you've got to fill the roster gap. You can wait for the 2nd round to play the lotto.
If BB feels that Barwin IS a sure thing and a likely starter for the franchise then we need to be worried (in a Ty Warren kind of a way) that he may not last all the way to our pick. But, do you really think that's the case here? Experience at the position, level of competition... these are phrases that BB has used to describe his first rounds picks in the past.
The last time BB took a flier on a compelling physical talent with only a partial college resume but a ton of upside, he waited into the 2nd round and traded up to take Chad Jackson. Chad would not have been a safe pick at 20-whatever (where we took Moroney), but he was totally worth the risk at 36. I was, and remain, a huge fan of that selection, even tho Chad hasn't progressed the way we'd all hoped. But his ceiling was so high it was definitely worth the shot. That's the analogy I see for Barwin... although hopefully he'll turn out better in the end.