What would our record be without Patricia?

[crawhammer]

Quarterback is the most important position in all of professional sports. Mac wasn't playing well at the end of last season without Patricia. So until Patricia is gone again and Mac turns it around (like nearly a 180 at this point)... 7-7

 

[Brotherblues]

This is brutal to look at. If we even roughly even to last year's rankings I think we would have likely beaten the Packers and Raiders and maybe even the Vikings. Even with two more wins I think our playoff chances would be 60+ percent.

Beyond brutal. Returning 9 of 11 starters (Karras replaced with 1st rounder, Mason replaced with Onwenu), qb in second year instead of rookie, added Parker...

I mean it was a really fantastic situation. For it to be at the bottom of the league at this point is unbelievable.

 

[mgteich]

Beyond brutal. Returning 9 of 11 starters (Karras replaced with 1st rounder, Mason replaced with Onwenu), qb in second year instead of rookie, added Parker...

I mean it was a really fantastic situation. For it to be at the bottom of the league at this point is unbelievable.

In 2021, we had a better than average Offense.

The personnel came back, with expectations of improvement. (as pointed out, the new guards were likely a net improvement).

In 2022, we have one of the worst Offenses in the NFL.
=================
Stats may not tell everything, but I certainly think that these provide food for thought.

The questions after 2022 should have been around what we had to do to compete for the division, or to go deep into the playoffs. We should have been asking whether Jones was a solid QB starter, or whether he had the potential to be a top QB.
==================
Instead, folks are reasonably asking what we need to not be the worst team in the division in 2023. And this is reasonable even though we have a top defense, and better than average ST personnel. In addition, we are solid at RB and TE.

BOTTOM LINE
We have come from hoping to aspire to competing for the division to hoping not to be the very worst in the division.

 

[venecol]

The thought of having Josh here instead of Patricia yielding 2-3 more wins is interesting. Josh has way more talent at LV and is 6-8. Josh's offense lost by 2 scores in 4 of last season's last 5 games. What changed this year? Parker? Do we assume he doesn't get injured? Do we assume he keeps Mac in training wheels? Do we assume that if he cuts Mac loose, the results would be any different than what they were during 1st 3 games this season? Does Mac throw less INTs with Josh because he learned from throwing 7 INTs in those last 5 games? Do other teams defend Mac differently this season than they did in those 5 games because Josh is the OC?

The Raiders are scoring 24.1 ppg. The Pats are scoring 21.4 ppg. So let's call it 3 more pts per game for the Pats with less talent. The only game we lost by 3 pts was against GB. If we use last season's 26.6 ppg, yields about 5 more points per game. Again, that's only the GB game which was a win in OT by a FG.

I say maybe 1 more win, so 8-6 with a final record of 9-8. Still miss the playoffs.

Can we do it with a dfferent QB?

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

The thought of having Josh here instead of Patricia yielding 2-3 more wins is interesting. Josh has way more talent at LV and is 6-8. Josh's offense lost by 2 scores in 4 of last season's last 5 games. What changed this year? Parker? Do we assume he doesn't get injured? Do we assume he keeps Mac in training wheels? Do we assume that if he cuts Mac loose, the results would be any different than what they were during 1st 3 games this season? Does Mac throw less INTs with Josh because he learned from throwing 7 INTs in those last 5 games? Do other teams defend Mac differently this season than they did in those 5 games because Josh is the OC?

The Raiders are scoring 24.1 ppg. The Pats are scoring 21.4 ppg. So let's call it 3 more pts per game for the Pats with less talent. The only game we lost by 3 pts was against GB. If we use last season's 26.6 ppg, yields about 5 more points per game. Again, that's only the GB game which was a win in OT by a FG.

I say maybe 1 more win, so 8-6 with a final record of 9-8. Still miss the playoffs.

Can we do it with a dfferent QB?

OC is obv a problem but our offense wouldn't be top 10 with josh either as long as the qb is mac.

 

[borg]

Question for Draftniks.....
Have any rookie OTs selected after Strange excelled?

 

[Brotherblues]

The thought of having Josh here instead of Patricia yielding 2-3 more wins is interesting. Josh has way more talent at LV and is 6-8. Josh's offense lost by 2 scores in 4 of last season's last 5 games. What changed this year? Parker? Do we assume he doesn't get injured? Do we assume he keeps Mac in training wheels? Do we assume that if he cuts Mac loose, the results would be any different than what they were during 1st 3 games this season? Does Mac throw less INTs with Josh because he learned from throwing 7 INTs in those last 5 games? Do other teams defend Mac differently this season than they did in those 5 games because Josh is the OC?

The Raiders are scoring 24.1 ppg. The Pats are scoring 21.4 ppg. So let's call it 3 more pts per game for the Pats with less talent. The only game we lost by 3 pts was against GB. If we use last season's 26.6 ppg, yields about 5 more points per game. Again, that's only the GB game which was a win in OT by a FG.

I say maybe 1 more win, so 8-6 with a final record of 9-8. Still miss the playoffs.

Can we do it with a dfferent QB?

I don't think looking at ppg in a vacuum and just just adding those points to our results is a good argument. Lots more goes into it. Think of field position if we had way fewer 3 and outs. Controlling the game. Less gassed defense at the end of games. Just a number of things that factor into it.

 

[captain stone]

Question for Draftniks.....
Have any rookie OTs selected after Strange excelled?

Off the top of my head, UGA LT Jamaree Salyer, an early-Day 3 value who surprisingly lasted until #198, has played relatively well in place of Rashawn Slater…

 

[venecol]

I don't think looking at ppg in a vacuum and just just adding those points to our results is a good argument. Lots more goes into it. Think of field position if we had way fewer 3 and outs. Controlling the game. Less gassed defense at the end of games. Just a number of things that factor into it.

Sure, but at least I'm attempting a method instead of just throwing out # wins in a vacuum. How would you approach it? This season's schedule was much harder than last season's given the increase in the level of competition. It's hard to win games in the NFL. We've witnessed it with other teams. Games that should be wins turn into losses and vice versa. It's been a weird season but there's much more parity. Teams like the Lions and Jags are doing better than expected. Teams like the Packers and Bucs are doing worse.

The thought that simply replacing an OC is going to yield 3+ more wins is suspect. Brady was probably good for 4-5 more wins and that's Brady. I just have a difficult time believing an OC would yield that many wins with everything else remaining equal. Too many variables.

 

[Brotherblues]

Sure, but at least I'm attempting a method instead of just throwing out # wins in a vacuum. How would you approach it? This season's schedule was much harder than last season's given the increase in the level of competition. It's hard to win games in the NFL. We've witnessed it with other teams. Games that should be wins turn into losses and vice versa. It's been a weird season but there's much more parity. Teams like the Lions and Jags are doing better than expected. Teams like the Packers and Bucs are doing worse.

The thought that simply replacing an OC is going to yield 3+ more wins is suspect. Brady was probably good for 4-5 more wins and that's Brady. I just have a difficult time believing an OC would yield that many wins with everything else remaining equal. Too many variables.

Agreed that in most cases the OC ain't worth that many wins. No argument from me there. And singling out the OC here is probably a bit unfair since he's one of several coaches doing something on our offense that someone else was in charge of last year.

So I agree that it's not all on the OC. It's the whole overwhelmed, makeshift offensive staff.

They've taken an offense that was above average last year with a rookie QB, and torpedeod it to the bottom of the league. With the same personnel. It's not unreasonable to think the different coaching is largely to blame for the team dropping 20 spots in most offensive metrics. And it's not unreasonable to think 20 spots in most metrics is worth more than one or two wins.

 

[FCB02062]

I did a deep dive on this and posted someplace here - might've gotten taken down, banned, censored,.....but the 2022 Pats are behind the Cam Newton Pats in a few offensive categories, third down conversions probably the biggest...CAM NEWTON!!!!!!

But I'd say at least 1 more win without that fat tub of goo

 

[cmasspatsfan]

I did a deep dive on this and posted someplace here - might've gotten taken down, banned, censored,.....but the 2022 Pats are behind the Cam Newton Pats in a few offensive categories, third down conversions probably the biggest...CAM NEWTON!!!!!!

But I'd say at least 1 more win without that fat tub of goo

I would think at least two more wins with our defense if we had a competent offense. The OC always takes heat but in this case it's warranted.

 

[Wozzy]

Agreed, except that I would make Eliot the Wolf the GM (as a True Outsider with a therefore Superior perspective) & draft weekend grocery-shopper, and make Al Groh's kid & Steve Gargile the pro & college scouting directors respectively, both of whom report directly to the Wolf.

Why would you leapfrog Groh, who has helped organize and steer two of the most successful drafts in recent history as director of player personnel with a scout?

You’re pretending to know what’s in the secret sauce, but really have no clue.

 

[Wozzy]

Off the top of my head, UGA LT Jamaree Salyer, an early-Day 3 value who surprisingly lasted until #198, has played relatively well in place of Rashawn Slater…

Strange was steamrolling defenders last week in Vegas… it’s probably time to stop trying to defend a bad draft day opinion.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

0-14

 

[Rob0729]

I posted this in another thread. On Sunday, 22 of 23 plays under center were running plays and 80% of the shotgun plays were passes.

It is quite an innovative idea to totally telegraph the play based on the formation. Most OCs would try to mix it up to try to trick opposing defenses, a true offense genius knows if you let opposing defenses know if you are running or passing, they get scared because they feel you don’t care if they know the play.

 

[Wozzy]

Brady without Arians is 6-8 in the weakest division in pro football. Players feel they don’t need or want competent oversight… but they do.

The only reason Tampa wasn’t playing in the Super Bowl last season was because Todd Bowles screwed up at the end of the NFC Championship game.

Coaching matters, the same way special teams and defense matter. It’s a team game.

 

[venecol]

I posted this in another thread. On Sunday, 22 of 23 plays under center were running plays and 80% of the shotgun plays were passes.

It is quite an innovative idea to totally telegraph the play based on the formation. Most OCs would try to mix it up to try to trick opposing defenses, a true offense genius knows if you let opposing defenses know if you are running or passing, they get scared because they feel you don’t care if they know the play.

Matt "The Sicilian" Patricia

 

[doesntmatter1]

I'm not certain things would be so much better with McDaniels to be honest. Our opponents have been better this year. Mac hasn't shown the ability to beat quality teams now or last year. I guess we would have more style points.

I'm more down on Mac than anything else. I thought Mac was good for a rookie, but nothing special. He ended last year weak and capped it off with a pathetic playoff loss. He hasn't won us a game that the defense hasn't generally played well. Honestly, any qb we played would have given us the same or better record than we have now. I was in the Zappe crowd but I'm more in the anyone besides Mac crowd. Hoyer and Cam would be an improvement. I really hope Mac makes me eat my words and saves this season. I really hope Mac can become something great in future years but right here right now I don't see it.

 

[venecol]

They've taken an offense that was above average last year with a rookie QB, and torpedeod it to the bottom of the league. With the same personnel. It's not unreasonable to think the different coaching is largely to blame for the team dropping 20 spots in most offensive metrics. And it's not unreasonable to think 20 spots in most metrics is worth more than one or two wins.

Maybe.

Again, are we talking about a Josh offense with Mac on training wheels, like last season, or are we talking about a more vertical one like we tried at the beginning of this season, letting Mac cook? The Mac we saw last season was one that was heavily managed by Bill/Josh to minimize mistakes and relied on a run game, great D and STs to win games. It became apparent that to be a contender, you need to rely more on the vertical passing game to compete with the Bills/Chiefs/Bengals in the AFC.

Every single move this offseason was predicated on improving the vertical pass game: trade for Parker, draft Strange & Thornton, dump the FB, swap the tackles (theory: Brown would be better at protecting Mac's blindside & Wynn could handle RT), etc. The playbook was simplified to allow receivers to run routes faster, to get the ball out faster, etc.

Results: Mac led the league in INT%.
Reaction: go back to training wheels, shorten the passing game, eliminate mistakes.

Mac's (2021-22) record when D held opponent <20 pts: 13-2
Mac's (2021-22) record when D allowed opponent 20+ pts: 2-12

The 2 wins, both in '21: against Texans (his only 4QC-GWD) and Chargers. Chargers game (27-24):
Harris rush TD (7)
Folks 4 FGs (12)
Phillips INT TD (8)
Mac's stats: 51%, 217 yds, 0 TD, 0 Int, 70.8 rating.

Mac just hasn't proven to be clutch under Josh or Patricia. Let's see how he does in these remaining games.